Best Bet 1: New Zealand vs Lions Total Points Under 45.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
NEW ZEALAND ($1.14) VS BRITISH & IRISH LIONS ($6.00)
Prediction:
All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has made just the two injury-enforced personnel changes for the second Test. The forward pack remains unchanged after getting on top of their opposition last week. The team will be skippered by Kieran Read who will be playing his 99th Test match for his country and stars are aligning for a special 100th in Auckland next week. In the backline, Anton Lienert-Brown replaces Ryan Crotty (hamstring) at outside centre and Waisake Naholo comes in for Ben Smith (concussion) on the right wing, shifting the evergreen Israel Dagg to fullback. Smith has been ruled out for the rest of the series unfortunately, however, the introduction of Naholo will send shivers down the Lions’ spines as he absolutely carved up the midweek team representing the Highlanders a couple weeks ago. Centre Ngani Laumape’s rise to fame continues this week having been selected on the bench, as a result of a colossal performance against the Lions for the Hurricanes during the week. He is very much in the mould of Ma’a Nonu and his power running game is a real treat to watch, but clearly not as fun to defend.
This could be a defining match in Warren Gatland’s coaching career and like most coaches who tour New Zealand, he is on the losing end so far. Gatland looks to be clutching at straws having claimed that the All Blacks cheated in scrums the first week, block and hold players in the second week and now their players are interfering with halfback Connor Murray post-box kick. Arguments can be made for and against these claims, but at the end of the day, if the on-field referee and two assistant referees don’t pick it up, fair play to them. Gatland has made three personnel changes in the starting 15 and a further 3 changes on the bench for the match in Wellington. There are two changes in the forwards, which sees Maro Itoje replace countryman George Kruis at lock and Sam Warburton has been given the captaincy armband ahead of Peter O’Mahoney, who has been dropped from the squad completely. In the backline, Gatland looks to have shifted away from his ‘Warrenball’ approach, by opting to tackle the All Blacks with two playmakers, Jonny Sexton at flyhalf and Owen Farrell at inside centre. Consequently, the hard-running and big-hitting Ben Te’o has been shifted to the bench. On the pine, lock Courtney Lawes, CJ Stander and Jack Nowell have all been selected to provide impact at some point during the match after strong games against the Hurricanes on Tuesday.
As expected, the forward battle last week was immense with both teams winning all of their own scrums, but interestingly, the All Blacks actually lost five of their own line-out throws, compared to the Lions just losing one (13/14). The Lions weren’t able to capitalise on this extra possession though, which they will look to rectify this week. The All Blacks have been the greatest exponents of the breakdown since I have followed the game, and they kept possession at 127/131 rucks, so they made sure when they did have it, they held onto it creating pressure on the visitors. The wind and rain that Wellington is synonymous for looks like it will be present at game time, which will really rob this fixture of high-octane rugby. Both teams will be used to these conditions and both teams will have a better understanding of what will be coming their way this weekend. The Lions have made some personnel adjustments that look to alter their strategy, whereas, the All Blacks will look to hold onto their lineout ball and give the likes of Waisake Naholo and Rieko Ioane more time in space. To beat the All Blacks, you need to dominate the physical battle, you need to stay disciplined and you need to be able to score tries. I just can’t see the Lions owning these three aspects and although it might be a closer result, I expect the All Blacks to wrap up the series in Wellington on Saturday.
The wind and rain that Wellington is synonymous for, looks like it will be present at game time, which will really rob this fixture of high-octane rugby. Both teams will be used to these conditions and both teams will have a better understanding of what will be coming their way this weekend from the opposition. The Lions have made some personnel adjustments that look to alter their strategy, whereas, the All Blacks will look to hold onto their lineout ball and give the likes of Waisake Naholo and Rieko Ioane more time in space. To beat the All Blacks, you need to dominate the physical battle, you need to stay disciplined and you need to be able to score tries. I just can’t see the Lions owning these three aspects of the game and although it might be a closer result, I expect the All Blacks to wrap up the series in Wellington on Saturday.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.14 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: New Zealand vs Lions Total Points Under 45.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
