Wimbledon Women’s Final 2013

Just the one play tonight, and it is another prop play. I prefer to use a larger sample size when I am looking for prop plays such as this. If you look at the last 2-3 matches, you can see why the line is set as it is. However if you cast your eye back across the last few months, as you see below, I think we are making a high percentage play tonight.

The play is this:

Marion Bartoli over 4.5 double faults at $1.87 at Sportingbet (Confidence 80%)

I will try not to over-analyse this too much, but here are some of the stats that stand out for me:

• In the 11 finals Bartoli has completed in with recorded stats, she has served over 4.5 double faults in 7 matches, and 4 DFs in two others.
• Across the last year, Bartoli has averaged 0.76 double faults per service game. In the past 3 months that number drops to 0.65, however this is still quite a high number.
• Bartoli has averaged 2.25 double faults per set this tournament
• In her last 39 matches, Bartoli has cleared the 4.5 double fault line 36 times. 36-3 seems like a decent stat to me!

Grand Slam finals are a high pressure environment. As a result you can imagine hat Marion may be a little bit nervous. It is evident from past matches that the crowd will side with Lisicki here in the majority. This, combined with the fact I think Bartoli will push her 2^nd serve knowingthe offensive threat up the other end of the court, will lead to a higher double fault count in my opinion. When she has been cruising this tournament she has averaged 2.25 a set. Hopefully the match goes long enough to give us an opportunity of a winner.

36-3 the last 39 matches. I can’t ignore that. This is a high percentage play that I would take again tomorrow even if it lost tonight. This is value.

Please Note:

Photo By Christian Mesiano (originally posted to Flickr as Marion Bartoli) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons