The time has flown by and tonight we have a sensational card of Quater Final match-ups for the Men. The betting odds in the Grand Slam winners market on Betfair suggests the final is pretty much set in stone between Djokovic ($1.96 Tournament Winner) and Murray ($2.76).
The form for tonight is a little different as we were asked to by you our readers to provide more options. Ferrer h2h goes up at the most confident pick of the night for those wondering. Obviously when you look below you will see there are a high volume of bets across the board tonight. Risky, yes, however pick and choose as you see fit, depending on what you agree with. After all, it is you that is hitting finalise bet
Andy Murray vs Fernando Verdasco
Best Bet
Verdasco +2.5 games 1st set at $1.62 at Sportsbet (75% confidence)
Next Best
Murray over 19.5 games
Lay to Back
LAY Murray 3-0 at $1.76 -> BACK Murray 3-0 at $2.52 and leave set to stay in-play
Best Value
Murray 3-1 at $4 at Centrebet
Upset Alert
Verdasco h2h at $12 at Betfair
David Ferrer vs Juan Martin Del Potro
Best Bet
Ferrer h2h at $1.74 at Betfair (80% confidence)
Ferrer -1.5 games 2nd set at $2.41 at Sportsbet (65-70% confidence)
Ferrer -1.5 games 3rd set at $2.41 at Sportsbet (65-70% confidence)
Next Best
Ferrer -1.5 sets at $2.20 at Sportsbet
Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Berdych
Best Bet
Djokovic -6.5 games at $2.62 at Sportsbet (Small Saver – Exact Games Won Margin ‘6’ at $5.05 at Sportsbet) (65-70% confidence)
Next Best
Djokovic -1.5 games 1st set at $2 at Sportsbet
Djokovic -1.5 games 2nd set at $2 at Sportsbet
Djokovic -1.5 games 3rd set at $2 at Sportsbet
Berdych under 17.5 games at $1.78 at Sportsbet
Jerzy Janowicz vs Lukasz Kubot
NO BET (at this stage)
Dodig/Melo vs Blake/Melzer
Best Bet
Melzer/Blake h2h at $1.90 at Betfair (70% confidence)
Game 1 – Juan Martin Del Potro vs David Ferrer
Well this game is an interesting one for a number of reasons. First you have David Ferrer, the gritty top-ranked Spanish player on tour. It is safe to say that the grass isn’t his strongest surface by any means, but he continues to deliver, even if in unconvincing fashion. Then we have the big Argentine, who skipped the French Open due to illness before making his return to the court at Queens. All the way through, he hasn’t been particularly convincing, nor has he had any strong opponents to contend with.
I will start with Ferrer. You can just never count the guy out. Although he has certainly struggled at times throughout the tournament you simply cannot question his will to win. Aside from two questionable rd 1 performances (which I will forgive based on my rule of players backing up after an ATP final), Ferrer has only been beaten by Nadal, Murray and Djokovic this year. Pretty solid considering the volume of tennis he has been playing. He has found himself in losing positions against the likes of Almagro (Aus Open) and Dolgopolov (rd 3), but he has found a way to win. You just can’t ignore that characteristic in a player. He just continues to fight and fight to the last point. I have doubted him at times this year, but he has converted me. He deserves to be above Nadal in the rankings here. It is about a 12 month rankings system, and Ferrer is one of the most durable players in the competition. I could think of nothing worse than coming up against David Ferrer is you were physically not 100% before you step on court.
Sadly for Del Potro, there is no way he is 100%. He doesn’t shy away from the issue at all. He will tell you he isn’t right, and that is exactly what he has done in his post-match interviews. He has openly admitted that he twisted his ankle and hyperextended his knee. The ankle isn’t the cause for concern, but the knee certainly is by all report. Most knee injuries generally don’t clear themselves up in a matter of days. Looking at DelPo’s fall, and the way he has been playing since, you get the impression that he is hampered. As soon as you start to lose confidence in your movement on grass, you find yourself in a fair amount of trouble. Luckily for Del Potro, Seppi didn’t have the style of game to worry him greatly. Playing longer extended points consistently against Ferrer however could be a different story.
In terms of how I see this match unfolding, I see Del Potro starting strong with all guns blazing, trying to wipe Ferrer off the court. However, Ferrer will slowly start to gain the upper hand as the hours progress here.
Having said that, there are a few plays below that have caught my eye for tonight.
Suggested Bets
David Ferrer h2h at $1.74 at Betfair – Considering the 6-2 H2H, with DelPo only ever winning on hardcourt, coupled with the fact he isn’t 100% makes me quite confident in Ferrer h2h here. Looking back a year, Ferrer destroyed DelPo in straight sets at Wimbledon. We may be in for the same here if DelPo isn’t careful.
David Ferrer -1.5 games 2nd set at $2.41 at Sportsbet – As mentioned above, I anticipate quite a competitive first set from both players. Ferrer can sometimes take a while to get comfortable on the grass, but once he does I think he will wear down Del Potro as he has in the past. All we need here is Ferrer to win the set in any scoreline that isn’t a tiebreak.
David Ferrer -1.5 games 3rd set at $2.41 at Sportsbet – See above. Far more confident in this set though as Del Potro will have started to fatigue. The main painkillers he is on may have subsided, and combined with Ferrer across the court I can see trouble.
David Ferrer -1.5 sets at $2.20 at Sportsbet also seems reasonable to me.
Game 2 – Tomas Berdych vs Novak Djokovic
The Quarter Final that everyone expected. The world number 1 up against the former Wimbledon finallist, who has been known to be a giant killer on the England grass.
Novak has been impressive in the early stages of the tournament, having not dropped a set as yet in victories over Mayer, Reynolds, Chardy and Haas. Outside of trailing Haas 4-2 in the 2nd set, he hasn’t looked likely to drop a set either. No fitness concerns, only dropped serve twice for the tournament, averaging over 1 break point earned per game received, everything is coming up Novak in my opinion.
Tomas hasn’t been as impressive as I would have hoped to this point of the tournament. After starting with straight sets victories over Klizan and Brands, Berdych has found himself in consecutive 4 set matches with Kevin Anderson and Bernard Tomic.
What I am finding particularly troubling with Berdych is the number of break point opportunities he has allowed his opponents over the last two matches . 21 combined against Anderson and Tomic (17 saved) isn’t the best for a guy like Berdych, who relies so heavily on his serve. Conversely, Novak has only conceded 10 break point opportunities for the entire tournament. Considering across their last two grand slam meetings Berdych has only broken Novak twice, this could spell trouble for big Berd.
Novak earning a lot of break point opportunities. Berdych conceding a lot of break point opportunities. Novak serving well. Berdych having major concentration lapses in last match. I can’t go past Novak at the value handicap at Sportsbet, with a small saver to prevent a 0.5 game loss.
Suggested Bets
Djokovic -6.5 games at $2.62 at Sportsbet with Small Saver – Exact Games Won Margin ‘6’ at $5.05 at Sportsbet – To me that seems better than $1.70 odd for -5.5 that is on offer.
Berdych under 17.5 games at $1.78 at Sportsbet
Game 3: Fernando Verdasco vs Andy Murray
Here we have a Quarter Final matchup between two guys that have won 12 sets in a row. After losing the first set of his round 1 clash against Xavier Malisse, Fernando has gone on a sensational run, claiming the win over Malisse in 4, then Benneteau, Gulbis and De Schepper all in straight sets. The racquet change may be more of an impact than I gave it credit. Fernando is seriously dropping the number of unforced errors on his forehand side. The new Babolat is resulting in Fernando requiring less effort to generate the work required on the ball for his game. You cannot argue with the results. This is the best fernando has looked on the tennis court since 2009, where he beat Andy Murray on the way to that epic 5 set semi final against Rafa at the Australian Open.
For Fernando, and in fact for anyone, the winners to unforced errors produced since round 2 has been mighty impressive. In his last 9 sets, Verdasco has committed approximately 3 unforced errors per set, against just under 14 winners. Impressive no matter how you look at it, considering his level of competition. He is asking the guy across the net to beat him. Verdasco hasn’t been throwing away sets at Wimbledon.
Andy, on the other hand, has never been better placed to win his home slam (actually Scottish, but he has pretty much been adopted because he is good). After initially finding himself in the tough part of the draw, Federer and Nadal did him the courtesy of being eliminated by day 3. That being said, he now finds himself against one of the cleanest hitters in the game on his day.
You can’t fault Andy’s form in the lead-up to Wimbledon. There is a reason why I selected him as the outright selection leading into the Grand Slam. He beat all before him at Queens (even after his highly overdramatic tumble in the final), and you have to say skipping the French Open was probably the best thing he could have possibly done.
This is the number 1 goal for Andy this year. Players don’t just skip other Grand Slams for the fun of it. He will stop at nothing to make sure he has the best chance of completing his lifelong dream. That being said, today will be far tougher in my opinion than some people think.
Suggested Bets
Verdasco +2.5 games first set at $1.62 at Sportsbet – Murray has covered a -2.5 game line in a first set 4 times in his last 14 matches. This can have something to do with Murray being renowned for choosing the receive first upon winning the toss. That then requires Murray to break the serve of his opponent twice to cover.
Andy Murray over 19.5 games at $1.85 Sportsbet interests me greatly. If everything goes right for Fernando, he has the ability to beat absolutely anyone on his day. In all honesty I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Verdasco took a set off Murray here (Murray isn’t well known for keeping the foot on the throttle for 3 sets), and possibly reach 5 games in 2 of 3 sets in a straight sets loss. Seems to be value at the price from my point of view, especially the way Fernando is playing. He isn’t untried at this stage of a Grand Slam, he has been here before and done the business. His style of play means he won’t go down without a fight.
Lay Andy Murray 3-0 at $1.76 at Betfair, and set up a ‘Back Andy Murray 3-0’ in-play at around $2.50. Murray isn’t known for his strong starts. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he were down a break early in the first set. This option gives you 3 chances for the price to work its way out to double the price. All it will take is a service break in almost any set in favour of Verdasco, or a 0-30 late in the set, and we could see that price being hit.
Best Value
Murray 3-1 at $4 at Centrebet – you just can’t ignore the stats of Fernando over the last week. They have really impressed me.
Upset Alert
Verdasco h2h at $12 at Betfair – I have seen stranger things. If the roof is shut, it may help Fernando a little more. You never know.
Game 4 – Jerzy Janowicz vs Lukasz Kubot
Pole vs Pole in a Wimbledon final. A bit of a far cry from the Federer vs Nadal everyone was already talking up a fortnight ago. Jerzy has absolutely blasted his way through the early rounds of the Grand Slam, showing a lot more form than he did in the lead-up when losing to Mirza Basic (Who? Exactly!). There seems to be no issue regarding the elbow for Jerzy, well at least it appears that way.
That being said, Kubot has to be the feel good story of the tournament. The 31 year old has battled and battled throughout his career, and is now due for his biggest payday. The secret? Serve and volley and repeat. It has got him this far, who is to say he cannot go a step further?
I have a bit of an issue with betting on this match. The extra element of both players being countrymen and Davis Cup teammates in this match is slightly offputting from a betting point of view. Although I do bet countrymen against each other generally, these two have never played a tour match against each other, and aren’t tested at this level previously in their career. You can assume based on his performance in Paris last year that Jerzy won’t feel the pressure, however adapting to playing the serve and volley of Kubot may take some time for Jerzy.
I couldn’t for the life of me take Jerzy at the h2h prices offered. Yes he should win, but it is hard to know how he adjusts to the gameplay across the net, as well as playing a friend. It is reported that they embraced upon meeting in the locker room after both winning 4th round 5 setters. I’m not sure I want to get involved in this.
Jerzy should win, but the value sits on the Kubot h2h and handicap in my opinion.
I will need to look further before I make a call on this. No bet looks likely though.
