Another massive fortnight has come to an end. A big thanks to everyone who has got involved over the fortnight, you have made it that much more enjoyable to cover. It has been an exhausting fortnight, but I have loved it. Thanks again to The Profits for the opportunity.

Our Best Bet last night was super comfortable for a $1.87 shot. Bartoli served 2 double faults in the first game, before clearing the 4.5 double fault total early in the 2nd set. Hopefully we can get another winner tonight in the prop market.

Best Bet

Andy Murray Most Aces at $1.68 at Sportsbet (confidence 80%)

Next Best

Andy Murray h2h at $2.41 with Sportsbet 5 set refund (confidence 70%)
Andy Murray 1st set correct score 6-4 at $9 at Sportingbet

Prop Bet

I distinctly recall a number of people commenting all over twitter at the Australian Open that Murray most aces in the final was ‘better than bank interest’ and a ‘great multi builder’ at $1.30. It lost by 1. I made the comment at the time that I thought Murray should serve more aces, however I would not take that price at all.

Today I will. And today, I haven’t seen any tweets about the identical market?

I think the odds are skewed slightly based on Novak’s efforts against Del Potro. Sending down over 20 bombs against DelPo is impressive, but you got the feeling that DelPo was picking his moments at times. The knee, although not hampering during points as much, would have influenced his return on the 1st serve.

Also, I would argue that Andy Murray is serving better than Novak on the 1st serve at present. Across the meetings for which I could obtain statistics, Murray has served more aces in 10 of 16 (5 Djokovic won, 1 tie) past meetings, including 8 of the last 11. Murray knows he will need to serve big here to win, and I really like the price that is available.

Andy Murray vs Novak Djokovic

Made the call on Murray pre-tournament, and I have no intention to change my pick now. Both players have done what’s needed to get to the final. Both have had dominant moments. Both have had moments where they have been close to elimination. It is the same almost every tournament for these guys. Regardless of what they have encountered beforehand, or how many hours they have been on court, they rarely matter. These guys thrive for this moment. Wimbledon Centre Court. Grand Slam Final. The last 2 times these guys have both entered a Grand Slam field, they have met in the final.In Grand Slams since the start of 2012, Novak leads 2-1,but I would argue that Murray has had commanding positions in each of the 3 matches. Leading a set and 4-1 in the tiebreak against Novak in Aus ’13, winning US Open ’12 in 5 sets after leading 2-0, and leading 2 sets to 1 in the Aus Open ’12 SF. He has found himself in winning positions, but just hasn’t capitalised.

Today he won’t make the same mistake. I mentioned pre-tournament that the London Olympics title was the best thing to happen to the Grand Slam chances of Murray. Yes, he lost in Melbourne, but I still believe he took another step forward. He just needs to take his chances.

These two have only met the once on grass, with Murray claiming it 7-5 7-5 at the Olympics last year. I must admit I am not the biggest fan of Murray, but when you are betting, you cannot let that get in the way of things.

Andy Murray 1st set 6-4 at $9 at Sportingbet
Murray generally receives first, making this a far more viable option. Murray has also won the 1st set in their last 5 H2H meetings. This $9 is overs in my opinion. Should be closer to $5-6 all things considered.

Please Note: