More research time and less writing up today. Rest assured, these picks have been researched thoroughly. Although in a different time zone here overseas I will endeavour to stay up and answer as many questions as I can about any plays, as well discuss how I think matches are going. Don’t hesitate to get in touch at @Ace_TheProfits. I love the interaction so I am happy to discuss tennis whenever I can.
Another decent night last night, with the only loss coming with the Andy Murray under missing by 0.5 games. The boss has put the pressure on for another winning night (not to mention he is cheering Ernie hard for a future bet), so hopefully I can deliver.
BEST BET
Gulbis h2h at $1.82 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund (FROM LAST NIGHT) – Confidence 75%
Berdych -5 at $1.90 at Sportingbet – Confidence 75%
NEXT BEST
Sijsling h2h at $1.95 at Centrebet with 5 set refund – Confidence 70%
Dolgopolov +5 at $1.87 at Sportingbet – Confidence 70%
BEST OF REST
Troicki h2h at $2.30 at Centrebet with 5 set refund (FROM LAST NIGHT)
Tomic +5 games at $1.78 at Pinnacle
BETFAIR MULTI – From Yesterday
Melzer (WON)
Gulbis h2h
Troicki +2.5 games
Pays $7.12 and is eligible for 50% bonus
BETFAIR MULTI – For Today
Berdych -5 games
Dolgopolov +5
Sijsling h2h
Pays $6.75 and is eligible for the Betfair Mobile Multi Bonus
Game 1: Ernests Gulbis vs Fernando Verdasco
Here we have what I think is the most interesting match of the day. Our adopted favourite Ernie going up against a rejuvenated Fernando Verdasco. Fernando has had a massive turnaround in form since he changed racquets just before Eastbourne, and is definitely in the best form he has been in for some time now.
Fernando has made his way to the third round by overcoming two of the elder statesmen of the ATP tour, defeating Xavier Malisse and Julien Benneteau. He has been hitting his forehand absolutely beautifully, however I think Malisse and Benneteau have played him incorrectly. Verdasco loves to control and dictate points, however I don’t think he will be afforded that opportunity against Gulbis here. I cannot remember a match to date this year where Gulbis was not dictating the play.
Although Tsonga eventually had to retire in their 2nd round meeting, I saw some signs that Ernie was starting to find his feet on the grass. His forehand was misfiring early, yet he still found himself consistently pressuring the serve of Tsonga. He will attack with the same ferocity today against Verdasco, you can be sure of that. If Gulbis can keep the errors low on the forehand side, then he will be incredibly tough to beat here.
The high RPM or Verdasco shouldn’t cause too much of a concern for Gulbis. If anything, the ball sitting up a little more will actually be advantageous. Although I can see the reasoning for people launching at the Verdasco odds, I still think Gulbis has a big edge here. His game is more naturally suited to the grass than Fernando, and I think Gulbis will be bigger in the key moments tonight.
Suggested Bet: Gulbis h2h at $1.82 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund
Confidence: 75%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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