Ace named yesterday ‘Redemption Day’ and he certainly didn’t let us down going 3/3 with his Best Bets (highest confidence for the Grand Slam so far) and landing the multi (reduced to around $3s) for Wimbledon Day 4. He was very happy that we had a successful night and hopes to keep the ball rolling tonight. Hopefully his tips match up with yours!
NOTE: All plays are lower confidence than yesterday. Also note that I select these without figuring the 5 set refund into the equation. It is just a nice security net to have. Any questions don’t hesitate to get in touch about any plays.
BEST BETs
Gulbis h2h at $1.82 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund
Melzer h2h at $1.97 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund
NEXT BEST
Janowicz/Almagro ‘YES’ tiebreak into Murray/Robredo ‘NO’ tiebreak at $2.04 at Bet365
Murray/Robredo under 29.5 games at $1.83 at Pinnacle
BEST OF THE REST
Janowicz h2h at $1.85 at Centrebet with 5 set refund
Troicki h2h at $2.30 at Centrebet with 5 set refund
BETFAIR MULTI
Gulbis
Melzer
Troicki +2.5
Pays $7.12 and is eligible for the 50% Betfair bonus.
Game 1: Ernests Gulbis vs Fernando Verdasco
Here we have what I think is the most interesting match of the day. Our adopted favourite Ernie going up against a rejuvenated Fernando Verdasco. Fernando has had a massive turnaround in form since he changed racquets just before Eastbourne, and is definitely in the best form he has been in for some time now.
Fernando has made his way to the third round by overcoming two of the elder statesmen of the ATP tour, defeating Xavier Malisse and Julien Benneteau. He has been hitting his forehand absolutely beautifully, however I think Malisse and Benneteau have played him incorrectly. Verdasco loves to control and dictate points, however I don’t think he will be afforded that opportunity against Gulbis here. I cannot remember a match to date this year where Gulbis was not dictating the play.
Although Tsonga eventually had to retire in their 2nd round meeting, I saw some signs that Ernie was starting to find his feet on the grass. His forehand was misfiring early, yet he still found himself consistently pressuring the serve of Tsonga. He will attack with the same ferocity today against Verdasco, you can be sure of that. If Gulbis can keep the errors low on the forehand side, then he will be incredibly tough to beat here.
The high RPM or Verdasco shouldn’t cause too much of a concern for Gulbis. If anything, the ball sitting up a little more will actually be advantageous. Although I can see the reasoning for people launching at the Verdasco odds, I still think Gulbis has a big edge here. His game is more naturally suited to the grass than Fernando, and I think Gulbis will be bigger in the key moments tonight.
Suggested Bet: Gulbis h2h at $1.82 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund
Confidence: 75%
Game 2: Jurgen Melzer vs Sergiy Stakhovsky
Tonight we are going to find out what happens when a player plays one day with nothing to lose, and backs up with everything to lose. Take absolutely nothing away Stakhovsky, he was absolutely sensational the other night against Federer. He noted that it would definitely be something he told his kids about, the time he ‘kicked Federer’s butt at Wimbledon’. Now comes the bigger test: backing up the form.
The serve and volley tactic of Stakhovsky clearly worked incredibly well against Federer. Fed was clearly rattle by it, as it isn’t something you come across overly often on the tour these days. It is a tactic that is generally only seen on the doubles tour, and you need to be a great doubles player to be able to cope with the tactic of having to hit to, or past, an opponent at the net. Hmmm…..I wonder who may be a great doubles player? Perhaps a 3 time Grand Slam doubles champ? That is what Stakhovsky faces today.
I don’t think these tactics will worry Melzer in the slightest. The issue for Federer was more in the lack of expectation and then the struggle to adapt. Melzer knows what is coming, and has the varying strokeplay to be able to cope quite comfortably in my opinion. Not many anticipated Melzer getting beyond Fognini, however after breaking him 8 times on the way to victory, he then dealt with Reister in 4 sets. I think he will be set for this one, and will take beating.
I rarely deal in plays due to ‘flash in the pan’ performances. I use a larger sample size, and the question that really needs to be asked is, if these two met round 1, would we be getting the same price on Melzer? Probably not. $1.98 is value in my opinion, and I will not hesitate to take it, nor will I regret it if Melzer loses.
Suggested Bet: Melzer h2h at $1.97 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund
Confidence: 75%
Other – Jerzy Janowicz vs Nicolas Almagro
I personally cannot wait to see this. After a pretty tightly contested match at the Australian Open, Jerzy is out the square the ledger here on Centre Court. Jerzy has been great this week. Comprehensively knocked off Edmund round 1, as we discussed the other day, then was in absolute control against Stepanek before he called it quits.
Janowicz has really impressed me in his time since he burst onto the big stage at the Paris Indoors last year (Indoors, I’ll get back to that later). Behind Berdych, DelPo and Tsonga, he is probably the most damaging big man in the game. He has shot well beyond Raonic and Isner purely on his stroke play. For a big man, he is mighty crafty, and you can’t help but be impressed by that.
Almagro is a strange customer. He will play some simply stunning tennis, however that match vs Robredo at the French Open sticks in my mind. Grass is not his favorite surface by any means. Jerzy will be going into this knowing exactly what to expect, as Almagro rarely changes his style of gameplay.
Compared to January, we now have a surface that suits Jerzy moreso, and the form of Jerzy has improved and Nico has dropped. Nico played some of the best tennis of his career in Melbourne, and if not for the fact he has as much clutch as an automatic car, he could have given the tournament a real shake.
Now, the roof. If it is wet tonight and the roof is shut, I am of the belief this favours Jerzy more than Nico. Who can forget the run of Jerzy on the indoor hardcourt in Paris last year? Something to consider as we get closer to the match start.
Suggested Bet: Janowicz h2h at $1.85 at Centrebet with 5 set refund
Confidence: 65% (slightly higher if roof shut)
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Photo By Christian Mesiano (Flickr: Ernests Gulbis) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
