Redemption Day. Day 3 of Wimbledon saw a record number of retirements and presented the worst betting day for a long time for many. Luckily, a large number of games played were refunded due to retirements but the smart birds did get the worm with @TheProfitsComAu tweeting for followers to lay Azarenka to win the Grand Slam at $15s after strong rumours she was to withdraw before her match. 5 minutes later, she was out.
Time to get this train back on track! It hasn’t been a super successful 3 days, but it is a long fortnight, so let’s see what comes our way after one of the craziest days of tennis I have ever seen!
Bets (all equal confidence of 75-80%)
Dodig -1.5 sets at $1.72 at Sportsbet
Tomic -2 at $1.80 at Pinnacle
Sijsling +3.5 games at $1.91 at Sportsbet
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Tomic
Llodra
Lopez
Dodig
Del Potro 3-0
Djokovic
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Match 1 – Denis Kudla vs Ivan Dodig
Here we have two players who are coming off 5 set matches. We have the young American in Kudla who scraped by James Duckworth in 5 sets, and Ivan Dodig who forced Philipp Kohlschreiber into retirement early in the 5th set.
The interesting stat to note here is Kudla had never played a profession ATP 5 set match before. I think this started to show a little but, as Duckworth found himself in more and more service games from Kudla as the 3rd and 4th set progressed. Kudla faced on average 0.77 break points per game vs Duckworth compared to Dodig’s 0.26 per game, and you’d have to say Kohlschreiber is a class above Duckworth. Dodig was broken once in comparison to Kudla’s 4. Although not a major stat, definitely something to keep an eye on.
Kudla is unproven in this situation, and on all available data I really cannot see any reason to not back Dodig here with the -1.5 set handicap. The lead up form of Dodig is also more impressive in my opinion, and I really cannot ignore that.
But hey, it’s day 4 and Federer, Nadal, Sharapova and Azarenka are all gone. This isn’t your conventional grand slam.
Suggested Bet: Dodig -1.5 sets at $1.77 at Sportsbet/Luxbet/Bookmaker
Confidence: 80%
Match 2 – James Blake vs Bernard Tomic
Here we have two players at very different stages of their career. First, we have Bernie. We all know Bernie has been in the news a lot lately, and not a lot of it is due to his on-court play. That being said, Bernie is where he is most comfortable, and where he has had great success in past years, the grass of Wimbledon. After a strange 5 set match where Bernie overcame dizziness amongst other things to hold off Querrey, Bernie also played some very solid tennis, especially in the first few sets. His style of play certainly suits the grass here, and Querrey is a pretty solid scalp to gain in the early days of the tournament.
James Blake is coming towards the end of his fantastic career. The former world number 4 has overcome a lot of massive obstacles in his career (highly recommend his autobiography) to get to where he is today. That being said, I struggle to see value in backing Blake now when he is outside US borders and not on the hard stuff. For some reason or another, he just hasn’t taken to the grass throughout his career. His win on Tuesday was his first win on grass in a main draw of a tournament since Queens in 2009. That is a long time between drinks. He owns one of the most powerful forehands in the game currently, however over the last couple of years the unforced errors have really started to mount on the forehand side.
For Bernie to win, he really needs to attack the backhand side of Blake. Blake will run around and play an off forehand where possible, but if Tomic can push Blake further and further into the corner, it’ll open up the court and a lot of opportunities. Ideally we want to see Blake using his backhand slice early in the match, which he may well do so. I have been a massive fan of Blake his whole career, but I’ll admit that his backhand slice is an absolute nothing shot. It doesn’t zip through, it just generally sits up asking to be hit. If Tomic implements his slice play, I’ll be curious to see how Blake counters it on the backhand side.
I think this matchup suits Tomic far more than it does Blake. If Bernie is serving well, I believe he will be tough to beat here. I like Tomic to get the job done.
Suggested Bet: Tomic -2 games at $1.80 at Pinnacle Sports
Confidence: 80%
Match 3 – Milos Raonic vs Igor Sijsling
Anyone for some tiebreaks? Both these guys rocketed through their first round matches without breaking serve, as you would probably expect considering their firepower on the grass surface.
I really like Sijsling here. As a result, I have traded out of my Raonic future to ensure a slight profit. I just think when you take into consideration the form of both players coming into the tournament, Igor has the edge.
Raonic has come in with two straight sets losses under his belt. I mentioned pre tournament that I didn’t believe this to be too much of an issue, however I’m not so sure now. Sijsling made the R16 at Queens where he fell to Tsonga in 3 tight sets, however his play did impress me. In his first round meeting against Kuznetsov he attacked the 2nd serve and used his break points efficiently. Raonic did similar, however Berlocq’s serve is nothing the write home about.
I don’t read Ivan Ljubicic coaching Raonic as anything the consider at present. In interviews Ivan has stated that no drastic changes will be made until the break after Wimbledon. Maybe he could teach Milos to volley, then he becomes a massive threat to a lot of people.
I’m taking on Raonic here. Sijsling. +3.5. Seems a very solid start considering the serving ability of both players. Sijsling looks after his serve, this wins.
Suggested Bet: Sijsling +3.5 games at $1.91 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 75%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Photo By Carine06 from UK (Ivan Dodig) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
