First rounds and I just don’t seem to get along! Another day of average results takes us to 3-4 for the first round. Hopefully you guys managed to find a winner or two. Gasquet couldn’t capitalise on a set point at 4-5 in the first set, and it was always going to be extremely difficult from there, with the Frenchman winning in 4 sets.
Now we get to the better part of the tournament. Everyone has had a crack on the surface, there are more stats to go off, and we can start to increase the confidence in our bets from here onwards.
Best Bet
Hewitt -6 at $1.90 at Pinnacle (confidence 80%)
Next Best
Cilic -6.5 at $1.83 at Sportsbet (confidence 75%) – NOW $1.91 for those interested
Janowicz h2h at $1.80 at Centrebet ‘5 set refund’ (confidence 75%)
Best of the Rest
Tsonga -4 games at $1.80 at Pinnacle (confidence 70%)
Troicki -1.5 sets into Mahut h2h at $2.15 at Sportsbet
Betfair Multi
Hewitt -6
Cilic under 34.5
Isner
Youzhny
Janowicz
Pays $7.78 at Betfair and is eligible for the Mobile Bonus (also eligible if you take out Youzhny)
Game 1: Hewitt vs Brown
Round 1 Stats
| Dustin Brown | Lleyton Hewitt | |
| Score | 6-3 6-3 6-3 (vs Garcia-Lopez) | 6-4 7-5 6-3 (vs Wawrinka) |
| Aces | 9 | 5 |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 75% (57/76) | 57% (56/99) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 82% (47/57) | 66% (37/56) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 63% (12/19) | 60% (26/43) |
| Break Points Saved | 100% (3/3) | 80% (8/10) |
| Service Games Played | 14 | 15 |
| Statistics on Return | ||
| 1st Return Points Won | 27% (12/44) | 35% (22/63) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 55% (12/22) | 52% (22/42) |
| Break Points Won | 57% (4/7) | 40% (6/15) |
| Return Games Played | 13 | 16 |
| Statistics on Points | ||
| Total Service Points Won | 78% (59/76) | 64% (63/99) |
| Total Return Points Won | 36% (24/66) | 42% (44/105) |
| Total Points Won | 58% (83/142) | 52% (107/204) |
| Detailed Statistics | ||
| Winners | 46 | 32 |
| Unforced Errors | 21 | 11 |
Am I the only one who thinks this is a truly horrible matchup for Dustin Brown? Having stayed up until 5am round 1 I can say that Hewitt’s match against Wawrinka was the best I have seen Lleyton play in an incredibly long time, including his match against Del Potro at Queens. He got the jump on Stan, and although there was a patch in the 2nd set where I thought (and tweeted) that Stan was going to run away with it, Hewitt changed his gameplan and systematically broke down the game of Stan.
Tony Roche sat out and scouted Dustin Brown whilst Hewitt was playing Stan. Brown got the better of Garcia-Lopez in straight sets. To be honest, I am a little bit over Garcia-Lopez and really don’t rate him in any regard, especially on grass. 2-8 in his last 10 matches on grass (only vs 1 top 40 player in that time) suggests it isn’t his surface.
The first serve of Brown is going to be the deciding factor here. From a groundstroke/winners point of view you have to give a solid edge to Hewitt. He will push and push and give no cheap points, as is evidence by only 11 unforced errors vs Wawrinka. Back to the first serve, Hewitt reduced Wawrinka’s first serve winning % to 65%, a number that has only been bettered by a returned once since April (surprise surprise, Rafa Nadal at Roland Garros). If he can pressure Brown consistently on serve, he will find himself with a boatload of opportunities to break serve.
Hewitt for mine here. Come on Lleyton!!
Suggested Bet: Hewitt -6 games at $1.90 at Pinnacle (at time of Twitter Post)
Confidence: 80%
Game 2 – Jerzy Janowicz vs Radek Stepanek
Round 1 Stats
Radek Stepanek |
Jerzy Janowicz |
|
| Aces | 8 | 11 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 66% (48/73) | 68% (52/76) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 77% (37/48) | 77% (40/52) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 68% (17/25) | 71% (17/24) |
| Break Points Saved | 100% (2/2) | 100% (4/4) |
| Service Games Played | 13 | 13 |
| Statistics on Return | ||
| 1st Return Points Won | 33% (17/51) | 39% (25/64) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 65% (22/34) | 62% (16/26) |
| Break Points Won | 42% (5/12) | 24% (5/21) |
| Return Games Played | 13 | 13 |
| Statistics on Points | ||
| Total Service Points Won | 74% (54/73) | 75% (57/76) |
| Total Return Points Won | 46% (39/85) | 46% (41/90) |
| Total Points Won | 59% (93/158) | 59% (98/166) |
| Detailed Statistics | ||
| Winners | 35 | 39 |
| Unforced Errors | 19 | 17 |
I cannot refuse the price here for Jerzy personally. Both plays won through easily, however based on the statistics and reports, I have taken a lot more from the performance of Jerzy.
Since the start of 2010, Radek Stepanek has gone 1-9 vs top 40 players at Grand Slam level. That is quite a damning statistic. I am of the belief that Jerzy will only get better, and his performance round 1, albeit against limited opportunity, was incredibly impressive.
It is hard to get a read on round 1 because both player cruised through. That being said, I think people are reading too much into the recent form of Stepanek. One of his great tools on the court is his ability to show a great variety of strokeplay, however I don’t think this will cause Jerzy as much trouble as it does other players.
The 5 set refund is obviously a bonus in this instance. Jerzy needs to get off to an incredibly strong start. If he wins the first set, I feel that momentum will be carried through, and Radek will find it terribly difficult to stop him.
Jerzy in 4 sets.
Suggested Bet: Janowicz h2h at $1.80 at Centrebet ‘5 set refund’ (confidence 75%)
Confidence: 75%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Photo By Steve Collis from Melbourne, Australia (Lleyton Hewitt Uploaded by russavia) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
