Just the one play tonight, but certainly confident enough to class this as a Best Bet (Currently 8-2 on non-refunded bets for the tournament).

Best Bet

Rafael Nadal -8.5 games at $1.86 at Pinnacle (Confidence 80%)

This is a combination of loving the spot Nadal is in and really disliking the position Robredo is in. Had this match occured 2 days ago I would argue this line would be in the 10 to 10.5 region, especially with Robredo really struggling to get the edge on Dan Evans. Fast forward and I think there is an overreaction to the win over Federer. If you break down the stats, Robredo came up big in a few key moments, but he genuinely struggled to hold serve against Federer:

• Faced break points in 9 of 16 service games
• Federer reached 30 on the Robredo serve on 14 of 16 occasions.

Although Robredo came up big in a few moments, not many do it better in the big moments than Rafa Nadal. You would imagine that Nadal will better the return game of Federer, and he is used to the night conditions on Arthur Ashe, whereas we saw Robredo struggle towards the end of the Evans match that finished late.

I have a bit of a rule when Nadal is playing. If Nadal’s opponent doesn’t have a particularly strong serve, and is heavily reliant on a one-handed backhand, then Nadal at the minus handicap is the way to go if the number is right. As I said earlier I was anticipating a -10 or 10.5 in this situation, so the price is certainly right here for me to have a go.

Note: Rafa hasn’t dropped serve at the US Open yet. Let’s see if that continues here against Robredo.

WTA Best Bet

Azarenka/Hantuchova under 19.5 games at $1.70 at Sportingbet

Azarenka has played 29 matches against players outside the top 32 this year. The total has gone under 19.5 games in 27 of those 29 matches. I also suspect casting an eye over the Serena demolishing Suarez-Navarro with a double bagel might kickstart Aza a little bit.

Please Note:

All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Photo By The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons