It’s been a fantastic fortnight, but all good things come to an end. It has been a good run, backing up the +30 unit fortnight with +25 units to date for the US Open, with a number of close losses and 5 set losses along the way.
It was great to end in profit for the women’s final, however with Serena breaking 3 times and having a break point in the other Wozniacki service game, it was the Serena serve that let down the 6-0/6-1 first set plays.
And now onto the men’s final. I’ll keep it short and sweet, and tell you why I’m siding with Marin Cilic today.
I’m happy to ignore the h2h meetings of this year between the two. One was on clay, and the other was in Brisbane at the very start of the year. Both players were finding their feet in the season, and 11 double faults from Cilic and less than 50% of first serves in was always going to make life difficult in early January.
All I’ve seen over twitter the last 24 hours is Nishikori and his 5-2 h2h record. Whilst a good indicator at times, these guys are different players now and the there are reasons to exclude the two meetings from this year from hefty consideration. Also, if playing the h2h record game, Simon beats Cilic, Berdych beats Cilic, Federer beats Cilic….I think I have made my point.
After backing Nishikori the other day against Novak Djokovic, it was always going to take a lot for me to go against him the following match. I think there is more than enough to justify taking Cilic at the underdog price.
The conditions and time of day suit Cilic moreso than Nishikori than if the match was in the heat of the day in my opinion.
The serve of Cilic is absolutely on fire at present. If he can produce a similar percentage of first serves in compared to his last two matches, Nishikori may struggle to consistently get involved in Cilic service games. Nishikori is going to pounce on the second serve of Cilic, as he did with Novak, Stan and Milos, so Cilic will either take a bit off the first serve to increase his percentage or attack more on the second serve. It all depends on how the Nishikori return games are early.
If Berdych and Federer were having trouble holding serve against Cilic, Nishikori may find himself in a spot of bother at times. I am a touch sceptical of the fitness of Nishikori from the second set onwards in his match vs Novak. Midway through set 2, Kei started to shake out his legs on occasion, not a sign you really want to see in the second set of the match. Later in the match, Nishikori was visibly labouring, but luckily for him the unforced errors came at key moments from Novak, most notably the 3rd set tiebreak. That is possibly the worst tiebreak I have ever seen Novak play – Robin Haase could have won that tiebreak! Further to that, in the fourth set the Novak unforced errors uncharacteristically rose again, and Nishikori was able to capitalise by targeting the Novak second serve.
Cilic was unstoppable vs Federer. Roger had only 17 unforced errors vs Cilic, and was still absolutely destroyed, a testament to the way Marin is playing.
If Cilic is able to serve like he did against Berdych and Federer, and there is a slight niggle with Nishikori like I suspect, then Cilic is the reasonable play for mine in this instance. The price is definitely value in my opinion given the circumstances.
Heart says Nishikori. Heart also said Wozniacki. When I say 5 units on Cilic h2h, I in no way do it lightly, especially after Nishikori made this tournament a great one for me.
Suggested Bet: 5 units Marin Cilic h2h at $2.07 at Pinnacle vs Kei Nishikori.
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All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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