Tonight’s going to be Agut night
Very nice to get back into the profit for the tournament last night, with a nice winner on Nick Kyrgios in the first set. We were dealt a cruel blow with Kyrgios dropping serve at 5-1, thwarting our $31 bet, however he held his nerve 2nd time around to get the $8 winner for a 6-3 scoreline. Robredo turned the match around midway through the second set, and never looked back.
Onto tonight, where I have some very high confidence plays to kick off a Sunday night/Monday morning for the Aussie followers.
Match 1 – David Goffin vs Grigor Dimitrov
If Joao Sousa can earn 10 break points in 12 service games, I fear for what Grigor can do to the Goffin serve.
Last week I got up at 4am to watch Jerzy Janowicz play David Goffin, more out of curiosity than anything. Jerzy, trying to recapture form, coming up against the man with the longest winning streak at Challenger/ATP level for a little while. I was hesitant about Goffin, and looked into the streak a bit further. I will add his matches since the streak ended for more context. Of the 28 matches:
- The first 20 wins were on clay.
- Beaten 1 top 25 player (Kohlschreiber – on clay, questionable fitness at the time)
- 3 of the wins have been against top 50 players (Sousa the other day – minimal weapons on hardcourt, L Mayer – similar again, and returning from injury layoff, and Kohl as above).
- 8 wins vs top 100 players (Sousa, Nieminen, Melzer, Thiem, Lorenzi, Kohlschreiber, Nieminen, Rola)…Not sure if any are to write home about.
- 9 of the wins were against players ranked 200+, or unranked.
- The only big server he has met on hardcourt in that period is Jerzy, who he lost to 4-6 2-6.
It is a great little burst of form, however looking into it a lot further, I would argue that he should have won the majority, and the odds suggest that. Pre-match odds wise, Goffin was $1.55 or less in all bar 4 of the matches (vs Jerzy, Kohlschreiber, Goffin and Nieminen).
I am struggling to find an area of play where Goffin is more proficient than Dimitrov:
– Serve -> Grigor
– Forehand -> Grigor
– Backhand -> Grigor
– Volley -> Grigor
I think the only way that Grigor fails to cover the 4.5 or 5 game handicap is if he has a severe lapse in a set where Goffin is serving first. I just think Grigor will heap the pressure on each and every service game. Grigor reached at least 30 in all bar 2 service games from Ryan Harrison round 1, and all bar 3 service games vs Sela.
Another thing I noticed in the Jerzy vs Goffin match was the struggles Goffin had with the warm conditions. Although the night session, the humidity will be high. I know Grigor can handle it, because if there is one thing that Roger Rasheed knows, it is fitness. I just have my doubts over Goffin.
Goffin has had a comfortable run through the first two rounds, but I believe he is in for a rude awakening today against Grigor Dimitrov.
Suggested Bet:
5 units Grigor Dimitrov -4.5 games at $1.73 at Luxbet/Sportsbet
0.5 units Grigor Dimitrov -8.5 games at $6 at Sportsbet
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Adrian Mannarino
I see the bookies have read a little bit into Mannarino ‘demolishing’ Fabio Fognini in straight sets the other day.
13 of the 26 service games in the Fognini/Mannarino match went to Deuce, with Mannarino winning 9 of them. And let’s be honest the 64 unforced errors from Fognini told the story (yep, 16 games worth of unforced errors!!!!)
Recapping the first two rounds, Mannarino clawed his way from a set and a break down to Pere Riba to overcome the Spaniard 3-6 7-5 6-3 6-2, only dropping serve 4 times along the way. He then got the advantage of playing against ‘that’ Fabio, and the rest is history as he is now in the 3rd round.
RBA got off to a slow start vs Maurer, trailing 2 sets to 1 and down a break point at 5-5 in the fourth set, before running away with victory. In the second round, he absolutely wiped Tim Smyczek off the court, conceding only 6 games across the three sets.
Agut will not provide Mannarino with anywhere near as many unforced errors as Fabio provided, and I really think Adrian is going to struggle today. The 30 degree heat combined with humidity will also suit Agut, and I think he will grind down the Frenchman today. Also good to note that Mannarino has not covered a +5 handicap in his last 4 Grand Slam losses (Vs Robredo, GGL, Ferrer, Federer).
Some may remember we were on Federer to dismantle Adrian at the exact same point this time last year, and we got the win. I am backing Agut in to repeat the dose here today.
Suggested Bet:
5 units Roberto Bautista-Agut -5 game handicap at $1.93 at Sportingbet
