I am going against a lot of people and experts who I have genuine respect for when it comes to tennis. I just thought I would throw out that warning before getting stuck into the preview of this match, as I feel it is important.
Here is my pick though, and my reasoning as to why I see Tomas Berdych as great value tonight against Stan.
Road to the Semi Final
Stan Wawrinka
Cruisey run until the Quarter Final for Stan, gaining a retirement and a walkover on his way to meeting Novak Djokovic. Nobody needs reminding of the Tuesday night battle with Novak Djokovic.
If you had told me that Wawrinka defeated Djokovic with a winners to unforced errors differential of -9 and losing the forced error count by 11, I wouldn’t have believed you. He certainly did though, in what is arguably the 2nd biggest win of his career (winning Olympic gold tops the list you’d think)
When he is on, he is on. After a shaky start vs Novak, Stan was unbelievable. To only face 7 break points in 5 sets of tennis against Novak Djokovic suggests you are doing a lot right.
This is Stan’s 2nd grand slam SF, and his 2nd in a row.
Tomas Berdych
Berdych has possibly put together one of the best weeks of tennis I have seen from him for some time. He has lost his serve only 3 times for the week, all to one of the best returners of serve in the game in Tomas Berdych. He has won 15 of 16 sets, with all sets 6-4 or better. He has just bullied some opponents.
What I have liked about Tomas is his control this week. At not point has he looked out of control. At times it looks like Berdych has sacrificed a small amount of power in exchange for extreme depth and shot placement, and it is really good to watch. Having watched him live twice last week, I couldn’t have been more impressed.
This is his biggest opportunity at a Grand Slam final in a long time. He has made it to a final before (Wimbledon). He has beaten Federer, Murray, Djokovic and Ferrer at Grand Slam level before, so he knows how to get it done when it matters.
This is the 5th time Berdych has made a Grand Slam SF. He is 1 win and 3 losses, but the experience will be invaluable tonight that he knows he can overcome the SF hurdle.
The Final Word
I have heard a lot of talk that Stan wins this purely on recent head to head against Berdych, coupled with beating Novak last round. If going on purely recent head to head:
- Ferrer beats Berdych
- Djokovic beats Wawrinka
- Murray beats Federer
- Williams beats Ivanovic
just to name a few. It is one way of looking at it yes, however there is more to it in my opinion. Analysing the previous hardcourt meetings of Wawrinka and Berdych, of which Stan leads 4-1:
- Berdych has earned more break points than Stan.
- Stan has been underdog for all 4 meetings
- Berdych has won 4 of his last 5 against top 10 opponents when priced between $2 and $2.99
Also, assessing the fortnight as a whole:
- 14 players have backed up off a 5 setter against an opponent who won the previous match in 3 or 4 sets. These players are 4-10 overall. Can Stan make it 5-10?
I think Tomas Berdych is value here. He started at $1.37 their previous meeting, after being average at times in the lead-up (broken by Kudla 4 times, broken by Lorenzi twice), yet this time he is serving possibly the best he has ever served and is playing the best tennis of his career, yet this time he is over $2.
Stan hasn’t had the ideal preparation in the last 48 hours. Coming down off the big win against Novak, he was subjected to no staff around to provide a massage/rubdown post match, settling for just an ice bath.
As tweeted earlier in the week, Stan Wawrinka is 3 wins and 6 losses in his last 9 matches backing up off a 5 set match (since his US Open meeting with Ginepri in 2007). These two met this time last year in Davis Cup, both backing up off a 7 hour doubles match, and Berdych handled it far better than Stan did. Hopefully Berdych can get off to a good start here.
Suggested Bet: Tomas Berdych h2h at $2.14 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund
Confidence: 70%
Alternative Bet: Tomas Berdych over 20.5 Games at $1.82 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 75%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Photo By Carine06 from UK (Tomas Berdych Uploaded by russavia) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
