Although losing in 4 sets, it was good to see Tomas Berdych at least cover his 20.5 total games play last night. Onto tonight where we see the more interesting of the semi finals, and I think I have found a prop play that is a bit of value for tonights match, and some stats to support it.

Best Bet

Total Service Breaks over 5.5 at $1.80 at Sportingbet (Confidence 85%)

There are a number of stats I have come across personally that makes me think over 5.5 service breaks is a great value play for tonight.

1. Across all previous hardcourt meetings in their career, they average 2.58 service breaks per set.
2. Across hardcourt meetings since the start of 2012, they had 28 service breaks in 13 sets.
3. I, along with a lot of others, am quite keen on a long match here.
4. Their last meeting late last year yielded 5 breaks of serve in 2 sets.
5. It can be argued that Nadal’s serve is nowhere near as strong as it normally is at Grand Slam level, with Dimitrov breaking him 3 times and Nishikori 4 times. His average 1st serve speed has dropped throughout the tournament, and the attacking nature of Federer this week (and high success rate with net approaches) suggests there will be a number of opportunities to break tonight.
6. Using Dan Weston’s projected hold ratings (Thanks Dan – for more information go to tennisratings.co.uk) it is anticipated that Federer will be broken 2.12 times per 10 service games, and Nadal 1.55 times per 10 service games. Using my maths, I have it that there would need to be 33 games for 6 service breaks to occur, around 9.5 games below the listed over/under total.)
7. Their last meeting at the Australian Open in 2012 yielded 9 service breaks in 4 sets.
8. Of all past 10 previous Grand Slam meetings on any surface, only 2 have failed to surpass the total, ending on 5 service breaks (Note this stat covers all surfaces).
9. Both previous Australian Open meetings have gone over this total.

Every stat that I can come across suggests this one goes over the 5.5 service breaks posted as a total, so I am certainly going to play it. Nadal’s serve is weaker, and when you consider the strength of Nadal’s returning, you know he is going to find opportunities on the serve of Federer as he has done in the past.

Best Value

Rafael Nadal under 5.5 games 1st set at $3.07 at IASbet (confidence 55%)

I personally haven’t liked the way Rafa has started his matches this week. Finding himself down a break early to both Nishikori and Dimitrov, and losing the first set to Dimitrov, suggests he hasn’t been starting matches as strongly as Federer has this week. Federer has jumped out of the gates and every opportunity to date this fortnight.

Nadal may be 8-6 on hardcourt overall vs Federer, however is only 6-8 in 1st sets. Considering 1st set form this week, and past record, I am happy to take Nadal under 5.5 games 1st set here at over $3. Considering Nadal is 23-9 in tiebreaks the last 12 months and Federer is 10-12, I would favour Nadal in a tiebreak situation. Therefore instead of taking a touch over $2 for Federer 1st set win, I am happy to take a bit of a risk and take Nadal under 5.5 instead for $3.07.