Richard Gasquet vs Grigor Dimitrov
This is an interesting matchup. Richard Gasquet leads the head to head versus Dimitrov 4-0 at present, however their last meeting was in 2013, and Dimitrov has increased his rankings since that time.
I am sure many agree with me when I say that 2015 has been a massive disappointment for Grigor. Outside of making the 4th round of the Australian Open, Grigor hasn’t had anything major to write home about this year. A number of surprise losses, including to Jack Sock in the first round at Roland Garros in straight sets.
I think the odds are slightly skewed here. On form, I thought Richard Gasquet may open up as a slight favourite. His performances this week have been absolutely clinical, especially vs Saville in round 1 (who did not stand a chance the way Gasquet played).
Grigor has come through the first two rounds comfortably too, doing what is needed, however I just don’t have the confidence in Dimitrov that I had this time 12 months ago.
Interesting Stat: Richard Gasquet has a 12-2 record in completed matches vs one handed backhands in the last 12 months
Verdict: As I said above, on form and matchup I have Richard Gasquet as a slight favourite, so I have to take the $2.21 for Richard Gasquet to beat Grigor here.
2 unit bet – Richard Gasquet to defeat Grigor Dimitrov at $2.21 at Sportsbet
Novak Djokovic vs Bernard Tomic
I feel like I have spent a lot of time over the last two years writing up Bernard Tomic matches vs top players (Nadal, Ferrer etc) and Tomic seems to find a way for me to waste my time and either withdraw pre-match or retire during the match, so I will keep this one simple.
If Bernard can keep his error count low, as he did vs Herbert in the 2nd round (12 unforced errors in a 3 set, 36 game match, so average of 1 unforced error every 3 games, then I think the overs is a really solid play here.
Tomic has shown that he isn’t quite up to matching with the big hitters at the top of the rankings (see Berdych hitting him off the court in Australia this year), however I think he will find himself in a lot more rallies vs Novak, and using his unique style should be able to take it to Novak here today.
I think Novak wins, but it has a very tight 3 set match or perhaps Tomic squeaking one set feel to it. I am happy to take the over 30.5 games available on Tomic’s preferred surface of grass.
4 years ago – An up and coming qualifier Bernard Tomic stormed through to the quarter finals of Wimbledon, before losing to then world number 2 Novak Djokovic 6-2 3-6 6-3 7-5
2 unit bet – Total Match Games Over 30.5 games at $1.80 at Sportsbet
Nick Kyrgios vs Milos Raonic
The Aussie everyone loved as an up-and-coming player a year ago is starting the wear thin on a LOT of Australia fans. Personally, I have run out of excuses for the guy, and have come to the realisation that this is who Nick is, and that at times he will prefer to entertain or be the centre of attention at times. That is fine, as long as you are winning and playing well. Nick has had an outburst in each of his two matches so far, and they were when he was WINNING.
I am siding with what appears to be the logical play here in taking the overs. I would expect this match to be full of incredibly tight sets. Two big serves, both being broken only once through their first two rounds. I look at this match and I personally don’t see it being a 3 set match, and I think that the nature of these two guys and their style of play leads me to say that 4 sets SHOULD cover the game total, and 5 sets definitely will do the job.
2 unit bet – Total Match Games Over 44.5 games at $1.82 at Pinnacle
Leonardo Mayer vs Kevin Anderson
2 unit bet – Leonardo Mayer +3.5 games vs Kevin Anderson at $1.83 at Sportsbet
