French Open 2015 Day 9

I like to think that Rafa is starting to lose his aura of invincibility on clay. The most interesting thing I have found about Nadal is analysing the service games across his last two matches, in terms of nature of holding serve.

Road to the 4th Round

Rafael Nadal

R1 – Def Halys 6-3 6-3 6-4
R2 – Def Almagro 6-4 6-3 6-1
R3 – Def Kuznetsov 6-1 6-3 6-2

Jack Sock

R1 – Def Dimitrov 7-6(9) 6-2 6-3
R2 – Def Carreno-Busta 6-7(2) 7-6(4) 6-1 7-6(4)
R3 – Def Coric 6-2 6-1 6-4

Hold to 0 – 3 Hold to 15 – 4 Hold to 30 – 7 Hold to 40 – 8 Broken – 3 Note: Nadal had a hold to 0 and two holds to 15 in the last set vs Kuznetsov, who was helpless by that stage. Yep. That is 18 of his last 25 service games where an opponent has at worst, reached 30 on the serve of Nadal. Rafa isn’t getting through his service games with anywhere near the amount of ease he has in the past. I wrote in a similar fashion regarding Novak Djokovic in the games leading up to his match with Kei Nishikori at the US Open last year.

I think the scorelines are certainly flattering Rafa, but you cannot deny the return of serve of Rafa at present. Rafa has broken 19 times in 9 sets, which is an impressive stat, especially considering the last two sets vs Halys yielded only 2 breaks in total. That being said, I think Sock is serving better, and more confidently, than Rafa’s past 3 opponents (you could argue Almagro, however he hasn’t quite been the same this year, and genuinely struggles against Rafa full stop.)

Jack Sock is the most confident he has ever been. Coming off a claycourt title in Houston (def Bautista Agut, Giraldo, Anderson, Querrey all in straight sets), before losses in 3 sets to Tsonga in Madrid (3rd set tiebreak), Simon in 3 sets and Lajovic in Nice. This is the biggest moment in Jack Sock’s career. He is confident. He has won the first set in 9 of his last 11 matches on clay, so the first set is crucial here. That being said, I don’t think set one is the be all and end all. The Nadal forehand can sit up at times for Sock to try and paint lines. I just want to see Sock attack. He won’t get anywhere playing passive tennis. I am willing to see Sock get passed down the line is an off-forehand doesn’t quite connect. It isn’t always going to pay off, I just want him to attack from point 1 to game, set, match.

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