With one bet pending (Granollers h2h), I am looking to get things back on track this evening, in what has been an upset filled and difficult Roland Garros.
4 Unit Bet
Granollers h2h at $3.17 (pending from yesterday)
3 Unit Bet
Donald Young h2h at $5.75 at Sportsbet vs G Garcia-Lopez (see below for 0.75 unit saver)
Richard Gasquet h2h at $1.85 at Sportsbet vs Fernando Verdasco
2 Unit Bet
Gael Monfils h2h at $2.15 at Sportsbet vs Fabio Fognini
Leo Mayer +10.5 games vs Nadal at $1.92 at Pinnacle
0.75 Unit Bet
G Garcia Lopez 3-2 set betting at $8.50 vs Donald Young (Saver for 3 unit play)
Match Preview
D Young vs G Garcia-Lopez
Donald Young is one of those players that can be difficult to get a read on at times. Early in his career he promised so much, yet delivered so little. Tonight, he is well over the odds.
Young has had a very strong start to his French Open campaign, destroying Sela in 4 lopsided sets, before knocking off Feliciano Lopez in straight sets in one of the more composed performances statistically I have seen in some time from Donald.
There is a misconception by many that Garcia-Lopez is at his strongest on clay, however I along with many others I respect when it comes to tennis would agree that this is not entirely the case. I think there may still be a bit of an influence from defeating Stan Wawrinka round 1, but Stan wrote his own ticket out of Roland Garros on the most part.
This will be the 11th year that GGL is at Roland Garros, and he has never made it past the 3rd round. The stats over the years don’t paint a pretty picture, and I cannot justify the incredibly short price available for Lopez here.
Based on the way Lopez is serving, Donald Young will have more than his fair share of opportunities to break throughout the match. Adrian Mannarino earned 15 break point opportunities across 18 GGL service games, so I am struggling to avoid taking the price on Young here.
Another interesting stat to look at is the form of GGL vs left handers across the last 12 months. He has faced 8 left handers, none of which are Nadal, yielding a result of 3-5. The wins came 2 days ago (vs Mannarino), vs 63rd ranked Brad Klahn and vs Thomaz Bellucci in a 3rd set tiebreak. It is the losses that yields a surprising list. De Schepper, Verdasco, Pella, Klizan and Vesely have all beaten GGL in the last 12 months, 4 of them on the red stuff.
I am very happy to take the price for Donald Young here, as I think he should be closer to the $3-3.50 mark. Leading the h2h 1-0 with a win in 2011, I really think Donald can pull off the upset here against the odds.
Suggested Bet: 3 units Donald Young H2H at $5.80 at Sportsbet
Suggested Saver: 0.75 units GGL 3-2 set betting at $8.50 at Sportsbet
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
