A good day overall yesterday, but it had the ability to be absolutely great if our Best Bet of Monfils -1.5 sets could have got over the line. For those who missed the match, Monfils had 4 match points in that 4th set, including serving at 5-4 40-15, but it just wasn’t to be. Monfils traded for over $100,000 at $1.01 on Betfair, before running out of legs.
That being said, the plays that were completed from the previous night were a great success. Best Bets went 1-0, Next Best 2-0 (and 1 refund) and WTA 0-1. The Betfair Multi also got up at reduced odds of $3.60.
Onto tonight, and there are 3 plays in particular that stand out to me
Best Bets
Djokovic 3-0 at $1.80 at Betfair (Confidence: 80%)
Gasquet over 19.5 games at $1.71 at Sportsbet (Confidence: 75%)
Next Best
Wawrinka -4.5 games vs Janowicz at $1.83 at Sportingbet (Confidence: 70%)
Haas -3.5 vs Isner at $1.72 at Sportsbet (Confidence: 70%)
5 Set Refund/Best of Rest
Youzhny h2h at $1.73 at Centrebet
Betfair Multi
Djokovic 3-0
Haas
Wawrinka
Youzhny
Kohlschreiber
Pays $6.39 at Betfair + 50% mobile bonus (up to $100)
Game 1: Novak Djokovic vs Grigor Dimitrov -> 4th on Centre Court
H2H: Djokovic leads 2-1 (0-1 on clay)
Round 1 Stats
Novak Djokovic |
Grigor Dimitrov |
||
| Score | 7-6 6-4 7-5 (vs Goffin) | 6-4 1-0 ret (vs Falla) | |
| Aces | 5 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 69% (70/101) | 59% (30/51) | |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 76% (53/70) | 67% (20/30) | |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 65% (20/31) | 48% (10/21) | |
| Break Points Saved | 50% (1/2) | 80% (4/5) | |
| Service Games Played | 17 | 6 | |
| Statistics on Return | |||
| 1st Return Points Won | 32% (22/68) | 47% (9/19) | |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 43% (19/44) | 56% (9/16) | |
| Break Points Won | 27% (3/11) | 100% (2/2) | |
| Return Games Played | 17 | 5 | |
| Statistics on Points | |||
| Total Service Points Won | 72% (73/101) | 59% (30/51) | |
| Total Return Points Won | 37% (41/112) | 51% (18/35) | |
| Total Points Won | 54% (114/213) | 56% (48/86) | |
| Detailed Statistics | |||
| Winners | 26 | 14 | |
| Unforced Errors | 31 | 16 | |
| Net Approaches | |||
| Points Won at Net | |||
| Fastest Serve | 204kph | ||
| Average 1st Serve | 187kph | ||
| Average 2nd Serve | 151kph | ||
Round 2 Stats
Novak Djokovic |
Grigor Dimitrov |
||
| Score | 6-2 6-0 6-2 (vs Pella) | 6-1 7-6 6-1 (vs Pouille) | |
| Aces | 1 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 72% (49/68) | 49% (45/92) | |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 78% (38/49) | 82% (37/45) | |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 53% (10/19) | 62% (29/47) | |
| Break Points Saved | 100% (1/1) | 83% (5/6) | |
| Service Games Played | 11 | 14 | |
| Statistics on Return | |||
| 1st Return Points Won | 45% (21/47) | 37% (18/49) | |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 67% (24/36) | 58% (19/33) | |
| Break Points Won | 44% (7/16) | 50% (5/10) | |
| Return Games Played | 11 | 12 | |
| Statistics on Points | |||
| Total Service Points Won | 71% (48/68) | 72% (66/92) | |
| Total Return Points Won | 54% (45/83) | 45% (37/82) | |
| Total Points Won | 62% (93/151) | 59% (103/174) | |
| Detailed Statistics | |||
| Winners | 29 | 37 | |
| Unforced Errors | 26 | 33 | |
Novak Djokovic
No point beating around the bush here. Djokovic is here to win. Stats from the first two matches show us that he is really looking after his serve here at Roland Garros. Just the one service break, and is really limiting his opponents chances at even getting to that break point opportunity.
I see this match as a statement match for Novak. Yes he lost in 3 tight sets to Dimitrov a month back, but this is a completely different context. Novak had already achieved all he wanted out of the clay season: beat Rafa. Now he wants the one thing that has eluded him: A French Open title. He isn’t going to let Dimitrov stand in his way.
Grigor Dimitrov
I am still not sold on Grigor at Grand Slam level. Never made it beyond the 3rd round, and has been afforded the opportunity of a 3rd round place due to a soft draw as a seed for the first time.
What has been particularly worrying for Dimitrov has been the first serve percentage and the struggles he has had when holding serve at times. In the 4 sets he has played so far he has conceded 11 break point opportunities, being broken 2 times. These performances against players of a standard many levels below Novak on the form ladder.
The Final Word
As I said earlier, I believe this will be the statement game for Novak. This is the one. He will be fired up coming off the defeat to Dimitrov a month back, and will be on from the very first shot. I have my doubts over Dimitrov’s ability to play best of 5 tennis. If Novak can get the jump and get the first set, then I doubt the ability of Dimitrov to come back here. 5 times Dimitrov has lost the first set at Grand Slam level, and 4 of those losses ended up occurring in straight sets.
Djokovic 3-0 for mine.
Suggested Bet: Djokovic 3-0 at Betfair for $1.80-$1.90 (fluctuating)
Confidence: 80%
Game 2: Richard Gasquet vs Nikolay Davydenko -> 3rd on Suzanne Lenglen
H2H: Gasquet leads H2H 5-2 (2-1 on clay)
Round 1 Stats
Nikolay Davydenko |
Richard Gasquet |
||
| Score | 6-3 6-4 7-5 (vs Serra) | 6-1 6-4 6-3 (Vs Stakhovsky) | |
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 67% (62/93) | 67% (47/70) | |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 81% (50/62) | 77% (36/47) | |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 52% (16/31) | 70% (16/23) | |
| Break Points Saved | 33% (1/3) | 75% (3/4) | |
| Service Games Played | 16 | 13 | |
| Statistics on Return | |||
| 1st Return Points Won | 30% (15/50) | 46% (19/41) | |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 54% (15/28) | 50% (17/34) | |
| Break Points Won | 71% (5/7) | 60% (6/10) | |
| Return Games Played | 15 | 13 | |
| Statistics on Points | |||
| Total Service Points Won | 71% (66/93) | 74% (52/70) | |
| Total Return Points Won | 38% (30/78) | 48% (36/75) | |
| Total Points Won | 56% (96/171) | 61% (88/145) | |
| Detailed Statistics | |||
| Winners | 28 | 26 | |
| Unforced Errors | 27 | 13 | |
Round 2 Stats
Nikolay Davydenko |
Richard Gasquet |
||
| Score | 6-4 7-5 6-2 (vs Istomin) | 6-3 6-3 6-0 (vs Przysiezny) | |
| Aces | 2 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 65% (51/79) | 59% (38/64) | |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 80% (41/51) | 84% (32/38) | |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 64% (18/28) | 54% (14/26) | |
| Break Points Saved | 0% (0/1) | 33% (1/3) | |
| Service Games Played | 15 | 12 | |
| Statistics on Return | |||
| 1st Return Points Won | 41% (29/70) | 48% (25/52) | |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 42% (14/33) | 72% (21/29) | |
| Break Points Won | 36% (5/14) | 62% (8/13) | |
| Return Games Played | 15 | 12 | |
| Statistics on Points | |||
| Total Service Points Won | 75% (59/79) | 72% (46/64) | |
| Total Return Points Won | 42% (43/103) | 57% (46/81) | |
| Total Points Won | 56% (102/182) | 63% (92/145) | |
| Detailed Statistics | |||
| Winners | 22 | 39 | |
| Unforced Errors | 28 | 15 | |
Summary
Gasquet should win this, but I don’t think it will be as comfortable as the line/totals suggest. I think Gasquet over 19.5 personal games is the best way to attack this match by far. This allows Gasquet to cover in a number of situations. It is almost guaranteed that Gasquet covers here in 4 or 5 sets, and there is the distinct possibility he also covers in 3 sets, if Davydenko can reach 5 in two sets. I think Davydenko can do this at the very least. Davydenko has been incredibly solid on his serve across the last two matches. Even if Gasquet can get a break on Davydenko, Gasquet doesn’t have the best serve on tour, and can be attacked.
Davydenko pushed Gasquet to the limit in Doha earlier in the year on hardcourt, and probably should have won in my opinion. This seems like a logical play, especially at the price we are being offered of $1.77.
Suggested Bet: Gasquet o19.5 games at $1.77 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 75%
Game 3: Stan Wawrinka vs Jerzy Janowicz – 4th on Court 2
H2H: No Previous Meetings
Round 1 Stats
Stanislas Wawrinka |
Jerzy Janowicz |
||
| Score | 7-5 6-3 6-7 7-5 | 7-6 7-5 6-3 (vs Ramos) | |
| Aces | 9 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 69% (95/138) | 63% (65/103) | |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 78% (74/95) | 75% (49/65) | |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 56% (24/43) | 68% (26/38) | |
| Break Points Saved | 75% (3/4) | 83% (5/6) | |
| Service Games Played | 23 | 17 | |
| Statistics on Return | |||
| 1st Return Points Won | 29% (28/98) | 35% (22/63) | |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 44% (20/45) | 39% (16/41) | |
| Break Points Won | 27% (4/15) | 43% (3/7) | |
| Return Games Played | 22 | 16 | |
| Statistics on Points | |||
| Total Service Points Won | 71% (98/138) | 73% (75/103) | |
| Total Return Points Won | 34% (48/143) | 37% (38/104) | |
| Total Points Won | 52% (146/281) | 55% (113/207) | |
| Detailed Statistics | |||
| Winners | 55 | 65 | |
| Unforced Errors | 50 | 46 | |
Round 2 Stats
Stanislas Wawrinka |
Jerzy Janowicz |
||
| Score | 6-2 7-6 6-4 | 6-4 4-6 6-4 6-3(vs Haase) | |
| Aces | 19 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 7 | |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 66% (65/98) | 60% (71/119) | |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 80% (52/65) | 68% (48/71) | |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 55% (18/33) | 58% (28/48) | |
| Break Points Saved | 100% (8/8) | 70% (7/10) | |
| Service Games Played | 15 | 19 | |
| Statistics on Return | |||
| 1st Return Points Won | 28% (18/64) | 38% (31/82) | |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 59% (23/39) | 45% (17/38) | |
| Break Points Won | 50% (3/6) | 43% (6/14) | |
| Return Games Played | 15 | 20 | |
| Statistics on Points | |||
| Total Service Points Won | 71% (70/98) | 64% (76/119) | |
| Total Return Points Won | 40% (41/103) | 40% (48/120) | |
| Total Points Won | 55% (111/201) | 52% (124/239) | |
| Detailed Statistics | |||
| Winners | 50 | 59 | |
| Unforced Errors | 33 | 47 | |
Summary
The only reason I did not include Wawrinka in my pre-tournament future bets was due to the doubts surrounding him and his thigh injury. Watching the matches, it is in fact strapped, but doesn’t seem to be causing too much concern. His serve doesn’t seem to be worrying him, and has only been broken once.
Janowicz worried me against Haase. He performed nowhere near as strongly as I would have thought. What is particularly troubling are his points won on first serves. Both 1st and 2nd serve points won were south of 70%, which isn’t ideal for Jerzy considering his game style. He needs those higher, and the 1st serve points won % up closer to 80. What was also worrying was how often Jerzy had to serve himself out of trouble. He will have a number of comfortable service games, followed up by finding himself 0-40 down. You can get away with that against the likes of Haase and Ramos, but not Wawrinka.
Stan will pressure each and every service game of Janowicz. I really like Stan to cover the -4.5 game handicap here. If Stan is to lose a set, I think it will be in a tiebreak. That being said, the Janowicz serve is vulnerable in my opinion.
This is going to be one entertaining match to watch, with Stan controlling from the outset in my opinion.
Suggested Bet: Wawrinka -4.5 games at $1.83 at Sportingbet
Confidence: 70%
Game 4: Tommy Haas vs John Isner -> 3rd on Court 1
H2H: Isner leads 3-2 (no clay meetings)
Round 1 Stats
| Tommy Haas | John Isner | |
| Score | 7-6 6-1 6-3 (vs Rufin) | 6-3 6-4 6-4 (vs Berlocq) |
| Aces | 6 | 14 |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 65% (56/86) | 63% (56/89) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 86% (48/56) | 80% (45/56) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 43% (13/30) | 48% (16/33) |
| Break Points Saved | 75% (3/4) | 80% (4/5) |
| Service Games Played | 14 | 15 |
| Statistics on Return | ||
| 1st Return Points Won | 44% (25/57) | 32% (21/66) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 42% (15/36) | 60% (15/25) |
| Break Points Won | 56% (5/9) | 44% (4/9) |
| Return Games Played | 14 | 14 |
| Statistics on Points | ||
| Total Service Points Won | 71% (61/86) | 69% (61/89) |
| Total Return Points Won | 43% (40/93) | 40% (36/91) |
| Total Points Won | 56% (101/179) | 54% (97/180) |
| Detailed Statistics | ||
| Winners | 27 | 52 |
| Unforced Errors | 41 | 29 |
Round 2 Stats
| Tommy Haas | John Isner | ||
| Score | 7-6 6-2 7-5 (vs Sock) | 5-7 6-7 6-3 6-1 8-6 (vs Harrison) | |
| Aces | 11 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 74% (83/112) | 65% (102/158) | |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 75% (62/83) | 79% (81/102) | |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 52% (15/29) | 66% (37/56) | |
| Break Points Saved | 86% (6/7) | 86% (6/7) | |
| Service Games Played | 16 | 27 | |
| Statistics on Return | |||
| 1st Return Points Won | 28% (15/54) | 26% (31/119) | |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 52% (24/46) | 52% (34/66) | |
| Break Points Won | 25% (4/16) | 28% (5/18) | |
| Return Games Played | 16 | 27 | |
| Statistics on Points | |||
| Total Service Points Won | 69% (77/112) | 75% (118/158) | |
| Total Return Points Won | 39% (39/100) | 35% (65/185) | |
| Total Points Won | 55% (116/212) | 53% (183/343) | |
| Detailed Statistics | |||
| Winners | 34 | 61 | |
| Unforced Errors | 30 | 52 | |
Summary
This is a situational play. Haas is fresher coming off two 3-setters, whereas Isner is backing up only 24 hours later off a long 5 setter.
This play comes with a very interesting statistic, albeit with a small sample size.
For John Isner, fitness and energy levels are key. The rain, coupled with what happened yesterday, absolutely works against Isner. In John’s Grand Slam career, he has won 4 five-setters. Backing up, he is 1-3 in his next match. The one win was a tight 3 setter against a player ranked 280th. In each of the 3 losses, Isner didn’t cover the -3.5 handicap on offer here. Granted one of those was off the 70-68 epic, it shows that after longer matches, Isner is in fact vulnerable.
I had my doubts over Haas at Grand Slam level, and maintained that for him to make a 4th round here he would need to get through the first two rounds in quick time. He did just that, and has now got Isner at possibly the best time you could ask for really.
The longer each point goes here, the more likely Haas is to win the point. Haas broke Isner once each set in a victory earlier in the year on the hard court, and is one of the better returners of serve in the game. I think Haas will take it to Isner here, and cover the -3.5 game handicap on offer at Sportsbet at $1.72.
Suggested Bet: Haas -3.5 games at $1.72 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 70%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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