Time for Stan to be the man

Well what an incredible day yesterday turned out to be. Tsonga absolutely monstered Roger Federer, winning 7-5 6-4 6-3 after trailing 2-4 in the first set. David Ferrer was gifted a path into the Semi Final tomorrow night also, beating Tommy Robredo 6-2 6-1 6-1. Robredo was clearly spent, and you could tell his mind was willing but the body wasn’t able. The only disappointment last night was Radwanska losing, and failing to cover the -2.5.

To recap last night:

• Tsonga to win the Quarter at $5.20 -> winner
• Tsonga h2h at $2.50 -> winner
• Ferrer to win Quarter at $2.04 -> winner
• Radwanska -2.5 -> loss

Also, for those who followed the pre-tournament trading, you now have a guaranteed finalist, with Ferrer (29-1) and Tsonga (80-1) meeting in the Semi Final tomorrow. We shall discuss trading options in tomorrow’s preview.

Tonight, nothing amazing stands out. Happy to just watch on. Everyone loves an upset, and I believe based on recent form, this bet is in fact value. A wise person once told me, “you can’t eat value”, so if you agree on this play, tread carefully. I am waiting on weather conditions before playing this, and even then it will be very tiny.

Game One – Stanislas Wawrinka vs Rafael Nadal

When: Approx midnight Melbourne time.

Round 1 matches

Round 2 matches

Round 3 matches

Round 4 matches

Nadal

I think we really got away with one the other night when we had Nadal under 29.5 as our best bet. Again, not overly convincing. Lucky for Nadal, Nishikori had only 14 winners to 39 unforced errors. Further to that, Nadal continued to return short, with countless balls rallying bouncing short of the service line. If he wants to win here at Roland Garros for an unprecedented 8^th time, he needs to increase the depth on his groundstrokes, or he will be punished at the business end.

Errors are high. He isn’t dominating best of 5 tennis. His serve can be attacked, especially the 2^nd serve. Yes he deserves to be the raging favourite, but I think he is vulnerable.

Wawrinka

Stan needs to attack, attack, attack. He has the confidence in his gameplay. He has the serve, and the serve hold percentage and confidence to have a crack here.

Stan isn’t 100%, but rarely is a player 100% at this stage of the tournament. He is coming off a long 5 setter, but history suggests that Stan backs up quite well after 5 set matches. The slight thigh injury he has dealt with all tournament, and it hasn’t impacted him. It may help him. It may force him to dictate play here vs Rafa, something he didn’t do last time.

To only drop serve twice to Gasquet, a very solid return of serve, in a match ending 8-6 in the 5^th shows how well he is serving. If he can consistently hammer his serve at the backhand of Nadal, step into the court, and play his shots, then I think he is a chance.

The Final Word

I am still not impressed by Rafa. He should win, but I cannot sit back while Stan is $10+ with 5 set refund. Rafa has admitted he isn’t playing his best. He isn’t moving like the Rafa of old.

Yes Stan was beaten 2 and 4 by Rafa a few weeks back, but let me cast your mind back to Rafa’s one loss at Roland Garros. Nobody gave Robin Soderling a chance in the world, having been beaten 1 and 0 by Nadal only weeks earlier. Again, I don’t think Rafa is in outstanding form, but he may well prove me wrong.

Stan needs to attack from the outset. Attack, attack and attack so more. If he goes down 2, 2 and 2 but has a genuine crack, then I won’t regret this play. The 92 winners against Gasquet shows he is striking it well. Serve well, attack, and attack the 2^nd serve of Rafa and anything short, and who knows what can happen.

Come on Stan, don’t make me look like a fool. We will know very early on based on how he starts whether he is a chance or not.

NOTE – I will be live tweeting this match, and personally may decide to wait to see how Stan starts before going in myself, but I cannot refuse the odds with the 5 set refund at present.

Suggested Bet: Wawrinka h2h @ $10.50 at Sportsbet (with 5 set refund)
Think Stan can do it but ain’t got the balls to back him Option: Wawrinka over 12.5 games @ $1.83 at Sportsbet
OTHER OPTION: YES, a tiebreak will occur at $2.65 at Sportingbet.

Photo By Carine06 from UK (Stan at the net) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons