I absolutely cannot ignore this line and price on such a play, given the setting and the circumstances:
There are a number of people that would agree with me in saying that Li Na has the ability to get very tight in key moments. It can be a very morbid way of watching tennis, but I think the total double faults line is too low for Li Na in a Grand Slam final.
I can see where the line has come from looking at the stats for this tournament alone, however I think I have found a huge trend in Li Na’s history that makes this one of the more appealing bets I have come across.
This tournament, Li Na has served 15 double faults in 55 service. Using simple maths here, that would mean there would need to be around 10-11 service games for her to serve 3 double faults, which when you look at the game total posted this appears a decent double fault line.
Here is where it all changes though…
In the last 12 months on hardcourt, Li Na averaged 0.41 double faults per game on hardcourt. On this form we would need 8 service games to hit the mark, which we ‘should’ see tonight.
Taking is a step further…
In all hardcourt finals for which I can find statistics for Li Na, she has never had less than 4 double faults. In every semi final and final since serving 5 double faults here last year, Na has covered the posted line of 3.5 double faults.
Here is the big one:
In Li Na’s last 23 semi finals or finals (pressure end of the tournament), she has served over 2.5 double faults 22 times, at an average of 4.826 per match. Only 4 times in those 22 did Na cover by only 0.5 aces.
It’s a big occasion, and Li Na is favourite. That is a lot of pressure on the shoulders of one woman who has had the yips in the past. I am happy to take the over 2.5 double faults here confidently. Even if she ends up with 0 doubles tonight, I won’t kick myself, because I genuinely love this line considering the statistics available.
This is my best of the year so far.
Suggested Bet: Li Na over 2.5 double faults at $1.87 at Luxbet
Confidence: 95%
