Welcome to the Australian Open men’s draw preview and future play suggestions. It is safe to say that this is one of the crazier draws of recent memory! You could hear the audible groans from the Australian organisers as they realised the IBM computer had put Bernard Tomic up against Rafael Nadal in the first round! A generally average draw overall for the Aussies is not great, but they could pull off a few upsets in the brutal conditions!

A note on the weather, stifling temperatures are forecast throughout the first 5 or so days of the tournament, and is a factor you must consider when placing a bet. Players who have come off a limited preparation from colder climates may take time to adjust to the conditions, or may not cope with the heat at this time of year. You need to remember that this is very early in the season for the players, and some may not be conditioned as well as others.

Time to break down each quarter and see if we can find a bit of value in the Quarter and Outright markets. Here is Quarter 3.

Quarter 3

Is this the best draw Tomas Berdych has ever had? It is one thing to receive a nice draw, but you then need to make the most of it. Casting an eye over his section of the draw, there aren’t many who would trouble him in the best of 5 sets format. Tommy Haas could perhaps trouble him, but I think the extended format is a massive advantage for Berdych.

Anyway to provide a little piece of info on the contenders:

• Tomas Berdych – see above. Improving and trying to bridge the gap to the big boys. Deserved favourite for the quarter considering the form of Ferrer to start the year. Should reach the semi final.
• Ivan Dodig – scrapes into the seedings thanks to injuries. Serves very well for his size, but not sure how he handles the conditions this week. Tough task first up vs Karlovic.
• Kevin Anderson – carriers some horrid form into the tournament. Pulled out in Brisbane then lost cheaply in Auckland. Can’t have, especially with horrid h2h record against Tomas Berdych.
• Tommy Haas – Can’t have in the conditions in the 5 set format. 4th round looks the limit here unless something happens to Berdych.
• Jerzy Janowicz – Another injury riddled lead-up for Jerzy. He really struggled here last year when he fell 2 sets to 0 down to Somdev Devvarman before coming back to win in 5. Did he handle the conditions last year? That, combined with the poor lead-up form/fitness, means I am happy to bet around him prior to seeing him play.
• Jeremy Chardy – Wildcard of the group. Chardy rocketed through Juan Martin Del Potro last year, and we thought it was going to be the catalyst for a great year. It didn’t eventuate, but with a powerful serve and crushing forehand, he must be respected on any given day.
• David Ferrer – Has David lost a step this year? He has started to look more and more vulnerable against lesser players. You must respect him in the best of 5 sets format however. When I do like to oppose Ferrer, it is in the 1st set markets. I would rather take him on across a smaller space of time due to his ability to grind down opponents. Let’s see how he starts the week.

Suggested Bet

Tomas Berdych to win quarter at $2.75 at Sportingbet

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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