Welcome to the Australian Open men’s draw preview and future play suggestions. It is safe to say that this is one of the crazier draws of recent memory! You could hear the audible groans from the Australian organisers as they realised the IBM computer had put Bernard Tomic up against Rafael Nadal in the first round! A generally average draw overall for the Aussies is not great, but they could pull off a few upsets in the brutal conditions!

A note on the weather, stifling temperatures are forecast throughout the first 5 or so days of the tournament, and is a factor you must consider when placing a bet. Players who have come off a limited preparation from colder climates may take time to adjust to the conditions, or may not cope with the heat at this time of year. You need to remember that this is very early in the season for the players, and some may not be conditioned as well as others.

Time to break down each quarter and see if we can find a bit of value in the Quarter and Outright markets. Here is Quarter 2

Quarter 2

This is the quarter where I believe the best value of all the quarters this Slam. To break it down:

• I am happy to be against Andy Murray here. His form has been sketchy, and with Andy you get the feeling you may be able to get some better value for him in-play at some point during the tournament. He hasn’t looked flash since returning from his back surgery. He does have the form here however, so you have to respect him still.
• Feliciano Lopez I am happy to be against. Doesn’t pose a huge threat on what I have seen of him lately. Just gets a little too tight in the big moments for my liking. Not sure he gets past Murray unless he has a blinder.
• Kohlschreiber with his draw should make the 4th round, but cannot see him winning this quarter.
• Isner will struggle I think next week. He is playing a final in Auckland and has appeared to be labouring throughout the tournament. Backing up from 2 full weeks to play in 35+ degrees does not suit Isner a great deal.
• Tsonga I like here. He played solidly in Perth, and got a reasonably competitive match under his belt against Federer on Rod Laver Arena in the Federer and Friends charity event. Say what you want about the nature of the match, but getting a night session match on Rod Laver Arena is solid preparation for the bigger matches of the Slam.
• Gilles Simon rolled his ankle and I highly doubt he will make it beyond round 1, even if he can get on court. He relies so much on his movement, that the rolled ankle is a disaster. The ankle will swell like a balloon, and playing in the heat won’t help this.
• Fernando Verdasco is an interesting one. I actually think he presents a bit of value here. He has form here in the past that suggests the conditions suit him, having reached the QF here in 2009 and 2013. The racquet change appears to have worked wonders and he was striking it beautifully at Kooyong. The big roughie of the group. I think he could seriously challenge Federer in round 3, and we know he can match it with Andy Murray after Wimbledon last year.
• Roger Federer – I am just not sure if you can have him of form can you? I know he is arguably the greatest of all time, but his consistency is dropping by the Grand Slam. If he gets beyond Verdasco, I cannot see him beating Tsonga on form.

The Odds

Andy Murray and Roger Federer are too short on form and fitness. The value is definitely around them.

Jo Wilfried Tsonga at $5.20 is the most appealing value in the market. I cannot refuse this price and I think he is a smokey to make the final from this half based on the draw.

Verdasco is the wildcard, and I am happy to saver him at $34 at Sportsbet.

Suggested Bets

Tsonga to win Quarter at $5.20 at Sportsbet
Verdasco to win Quarter at $34 at Sportsbet (much smaller play)

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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