Welcome to the Australian Open men’s draw preview and future play suggestions. It is safe to say that this is one of the crazier draws of recent memory! You could hear the audible groans from the Australian organisers as they realised the IBM computer had put Bernard Tomic up against Rafael Nadal in the first round! A generally average draw overall for the Aussies is not great, but they could pull off a few upsets in the brutal conditions!

A note on the weather, stifling temperatures are forecast throughout the first 5 or so days of the tournament, and is a factor you must consider when placing a bet. Players who have come off a limited preparation from colder climates may take time to adjust to the conditions, or may not cope with the heat at this time of year. You need to remember that this is very early in the season for the players, and some may not be conditioned as well as others.

Time to break down each quarter and see if we can find a bit of value in the Quarter and Outright markets.

Quarter 1

This quarter is loaded with the older players who have shown their worth at Grand Slam level (Nadal, Del Potro and Hewitt),the elder statesmen (Seppi and Monfils) and a wealth of the younger brigade looking to take a Grand Slam scalp (Tomic, Dimitrov, Nishikori, Paire and Raonic).

I mentioned prior to the draw that there were a few unseeded players that the seeded guys would love to avoid playing early. All I have heard from social media and beyond since the draw is how unlucky Tomic is to have drawn Rafael Nadal in the first round. That’s all well and good, but the seeding system is there for a reason. If you aren’t unseeded then you can find yourself anywhere in the draw. What I want to know is: what is Rafael Nadal thinking?!? The number 1 seed is meant to start his draw against lower ranked players and almost ease his way into the year, yet he ‘could’ have to play Tomic, Sijsling, Monfils, Hewitt and Del Potro just to get out of his quarter! That is a tremendous task as any one of those players could pull something special, and if Nadal is not 100% (see http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2013-12-29/14403.php for example), as was seen towards the end of last year, then this could become quite a struggle for Rafa.

I think the top half of the quarter hinges on the scheduling of a particular match that may eventuate. If Hewitt and Nishikori do end up meeting in the 3rd round, you can bet that the Hewitt camp will be pleading for the match to be played during the day after Nishikori wiltered in the Brisbane sun last week. If played at night, it may help Nishikori. If all is well and all are fit, I have it that Nadal will play Hewitt and Raonic will play Del Potro in the 4th round. From here, Nadal should have Hewitt covered and Del Potro should edge past Raonic in the best of 5 format.

The Odds

A highly competitive section that’s for sure. I am happy to oppose Gael Monfils here. There always seems to be an issue or two that pops up for Monfils health wise at Grand Slam level. I am also happy to oppose Dimitrov, Raonic, Paire, Nishikori and Seppi due to the conditions. I am ruling out Tomic based on the tough draw, leaving Nadal, Hewitt and Del Potro.

I think I would want a bigger price here for Hewitt than the $20 or so on offer, purely on age and draw. That being said I think if Nadal isn’t fit (I am happy to risk him slightly), then he is a big chance here.

I am taking on Nadal, but not with great confidence. He is too good to oppose in a big way, so I won’t be at all disappointed if he comes through with the quarter. Having said that, Del Potro and Hewitt are the value in these markets in my opinion.

Suggestions

Juan Martin Del Potro to win quarter at $3.65 at Sportingbet
Lleyton Hewitt to win quarter at at $21 at Sportsbet (intention to lay off Round 4 if vs Nadal, otherwise at 1/4 final)

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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