What an entertaining Day 7 and 8 we have had. The women’s draw has been cast wide open with the defeat of Serena Williams while the Men’s has remained as expected excluding Del Po who was knocked out early on. We are in for a treat on Rod Laver Arena tonight with Tsonga and Federer.
BEST BET
Tsonga over 19.5 games at $1.74 at Sportsbet (Confidence 80%)
BEST VALUE
Tsonga h2h at $2.36 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund (Confidence 70%)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Roger Federer
Cast your minds back a year, to this exact matchup at the Australian Open 2013. Think about that night, and just how close it was. How far Tsonga pushed Federer on the night.
Now think about what’s transpired since. Tsonga completely dominated Federer at Roland Garros, almost playing him off the court. Federer has seen a dip in form and performance over the last 12 months, and Tsonga hasn’t lost any ground at all.
| ROUND ONE | Roger Federer |
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
| Aces | 11 | 15 |
| Double Faults | 5 | 1 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 58% (45/78) | 62% (51/82) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 89% (40/45) | 73% (37/51) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 58% (19/33) | 74% (23/31) |
| Break Points Saved | 100% (1/1) | 50% (1/2) |
| Service Games Played | 14 | 15 |
| Statistics on Return | ||
| 1st Return Points Won | 25% (12/48) | 38% (21/56) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 57% (25/44) | 53% (23/43) |
| Break Points Won | 24% (4/17) | 38% (5/13) |
| Return Games Played | 14 | 15 |
| Statistics on Points | ||
| Total Service Points Won | 76% (59/78) | 73% (60/82) |
| Total Return Points Won | 40% (37/92) | 44% (44/99) |
| Total Points Won | 56% (96/170) | 57% (104/181) |
| Detailed Statistics | ||
| Winners | 30 | 36 |
| Unforced Errors | 17 | 25 |
| Net Approaches | 18 | 12 |
| Points Won at Net | 22 | 15 |
| Fastest Serve | 207kph | 213kph |
| Average 1st Serve | 185kph | 184kph |
| Average 2nd Serve | 153kph | 137kph |
| ROUND TWO | Roger Federer |
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
| Aces | 11 | 14 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 6 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 76% (58/76) | 64% (59/92) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 78% (45/58) | 86% (51/59) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 50% (9/18) | 55% (18/33) |
| Break Points Saved | 50% (1/2) | 75% (3/4) |
| Service Games Played | 13 | 16 |
| Statistics on Return | ||
| 1st Return Points Won | 48% (29/61) | 35% (17/48) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 53% (20/38) | 41% (24/58) |
| Break Points Won | 55% (6/11) | 33% (3/9) |
| Return Games Played | 14 | 16 |
| Statistics on Points | ||
| Total Service Points Won | 71% (54/76) | 75% (69/92) |
| Total Return Points Won | 49% (49/99) | 39% (41/106) |
| Total Points Won | 59% (103/175) | 56% (110/198) |
| Detailed Statistics | ||
| Winners | 52 | 47 |
| Unforced Errors | 35 | 28 |
| Net Approaches | 23 | 16 |
| Points Won at Net | 29 | 24 |
| Fastest Serve | 208kph | 218kph |
| Average 1st Serve | 180kph | 191kph |
| Average 2nd Serve | 151kph | 151kph |
| ROUND THREE | Roger Federer |
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
| Aces | 6 | 17 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 62% (45/73) | 66% (61/92) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 87% (39/45) | 80% (49/61) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 57% (16/28) | 65% (20/31) |
| Break Points Saved | 100% (5/5) | 100% (3/3) |
| Service Games Played | 13 | 15 |
| Statistics on Return | ||
| 1st Return Points Won | 40% (25/63) | 21% (9/43) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 64% (18/28) | 42% (16/38) |
| Break Points Won | 36% (5/14) | 50% (3/6) |
| Return Games Played | 12 | 15 |
| Statistics on Points | ||
| Total Service Points Won | 75% (55/73) | 75% (69/92) |
| Total Return Points Won | 47% (43/91) | 31% (25/81) |
| Total Points Won | 60% (98/164) | 54% (94/173) |
| Detailed Statistics | ||
| Winners | 35 | 40 |
| Unforced Errors | 18 | 29 |
| Net Approaches | 11 | 20 |
| Points Won at Net | 20 | 27 |
| Fastest Serve | 202kph | 223kph |
| Average 1st Serve | 180kph | 189kph |
| Average 2nd Serve | 148kph | 149kph |
I really like Tsonga here. Yes he hasn’t had a night match yet in the Australian Open on RLA (has on Hisense),however the ‘Roger Federer & Friends’ night will help with the adjustment to conditions.
I give Tsonga the edge here, and would have installed him as a slight favourite here. I think Tsonga has shored up his deficiencies over the last year or two, and has what it takes to beat Federer here.
NOTE: for those on the Federer elimination point – 4th round ($4.50) and Tsonga to win Quarter ($5.20) I would probably leave it at that for tonight (or perhaps back Federer at 5 set refund and hope for Tsonga in 5).
Tsonga in 4 sets for mine.
Suggested Bets
BEST BET
Tsonga over 19.5 games at $1.74 at Sportsbet (Confidence 80%)
BEST VALUE
Tsonga h2h at $2.36 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund (Confidence 70%)
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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