A much better day yesterday, getting another best bet home in Dimitrov as well as a couple of early winners, finishing 4-2 for the day.
The tournament is progressing, and the matchups are becoming a greater spectacle with each passing day. I think we are in for a few sensational matches in the next few days.
Best Bet
David Ferrer over 19.5 total games at $1.76 at Sportsbet
Tommy Robredo over 18.5 games at $1.91 at Sportsbet
Best Value
Tommy Robredo h2h at $3.19 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund
Tommy Robredo vs Stan Wawrinka
Road to the 4th round
| ROUND ONE | Tommy Robredo | Stanislas Wawrinka | |
| Score | Def Rosol 6-1 6-7 3-6 7-6 8-6 | Def Golubev 6-4 4-1 ret | |
| Aces | 13 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 57% (82/144) | 63% (22/35) | |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 76% (62/82) | 91% (20/22) | |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 69% (43/62) | 46% (6/13) | |
| Break Points Saved | 57% (4/7) | 50% (1/2) | |
| Service Games Played | 26 | 7 | |
| Statistics on Return | |||
| 1st Return Points Won | 23% (22/94) | 50% (18/36) | |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 55% (50/91) | 50% (10/20) | |
| Break Points Won | 33% (6/18) | 44% (4/9) | |
| Return Games Played | 28 | 8 | |
| Statistics on Points | |||
| Total Service Points Won | 73% (105/144) | 74% (26/35) | |
| Total Return Points Won | 39% (72/185) | 50% (28/56) | |
| Total Points Won | 54% (177/329) | 59% (54/91) | |
| Detailed Statistics | |||
| Winners | 50 | 23 | |
| Unforced Errors | 38 | 11 | |
| Net Approaches | 15 | 13 | |
| Points Won at Net | 19 | 14 | |
| Fastest Serve | NA | 213kph | |
| Average 1st Serve | NA | 189kph | |
| Average 2nd Serve | NA | 149kph | |
| ROUND TWO | Tommy Robredo | Stanislas Wawrinka |
| Score | Def Benneteau 6-3 6-7 6-1 7-6 | Def Falla 6-3 6-3 6-7 6-4 |
| Aces | 17 | 9 |
| Double Faults | 3 | 4 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 58% (82/142) | 56% (69/124) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 74% (61/82) | 83% (57/69) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 63% (38/60) | 56% (31/55) |
| Break Points Saved | 91% (10/11) | 71% (5/7) |
| Service Games Played | 21 | 20 |
| Statistics on Return | ||
| 1st Return Points Won | 29% (28/96) | 31% (25/81) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 54% (32/59) | 54% (29/54) |
| Break Points Won | 31% (4/13) | 35% (6/17) |
| Return Games Played | 19 | 20 |
| Statistics on Points | ||
| Total Service Points Won | 70% (99/142) | 71% (88/124) |
| Total Return Points Won | 39% (60/155) | 40% (54/135) |
| Total Points Won | 54% (159/297) | 55% (142/259) |
| Detailed Statistics | ||
| Winners | 66 | 61 |
| Unforced Errors | 25 | 46 |
| Net Approaches | 13 | 23 |
| Points Won at Net | 17 | 29 |
| Fastest Serve | 207kph | 214kph |
| Average 1st Serve | 184kph | 180kph |
| Average 2nd Serve | 150kph | 152kph |
| ROUND THREE | Tommy Robredo | Stanislas Wawrinka | |
| Score | Def Gasquet 2-6 7-5 6-4 7-6 | WON | |
| Aces | 16 | BY | |
| Double Faults | 3 | WALKOVER | |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 65% (90/139) | ||
| 1st Serve Points Won | 78% (70/90) | ||
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 43% (21/49) | ||
| Break Points Saved | 67% (6/9) | ||
| Service Games Played | 21 | ||
| Statistics on Return | |||
| 1st Return Points Won | 28% (24/85) | ||
| 2nd Return Points Won | 47% (25/53) | ||
| Break Points Won | 43% (3/7) | ||
| Return Games Played | 21 | ||
| Statistics on Points | |||
| Total Service Points Won | 65% (91/139) | ||
| Total Return Points Won | 36% (49/138) | ||
| Total Points Won | 51% (140/277) | ||
| Detailed Statistics | |||
| Winners | 51 | ||
| Unforced Errors | 38 | ||
| Net Approaches | 18 | ||
| Points Won at Net | 25 | ||
| Fastest Serve | 204kph | ||
| Average 1st Serve | 185kph | ||
| Average 2nd Serve | 148kph | ||
The seasoned campaigner against the freshest player in the tournament, and who some consider the biggest smokey for the tournament. One has played 13 sets through three rounds, and the other has played only 5. The one who is 1-6 in head to head meetings is $1.30ish, the other is…….hang on….what?!
There are two ways you can look at Stan and Tommy’s early stages of the tournament. You can see it as Tommy will be drained and Stan will be fresh, or you can look at it as Tommy getting the miles in his legs after a long layoff late last year.
Tommy Robredo has played 141 games through three rounds, and committed only 101 unforced errors. Thats a touch over 0.71 unforced errors per game, which is impressive. Stan will need to win this match off his own racquet if he is to get the chocolates, and repel challenge after challenge after challenge.
I love being on Robredo’s side, because you know your man will never say die? Down multiple match points on Rosol’s serve round 1? No problem. Down 2 sets to 0 against Monfils and Almagro at the French Open last year? No problem. Up against Roger Federer at Flushing Meadows? Wins in straight sets. Up against Stan 7 times in the past? Wins 6. I would argue Tommy has what it takes to win here. If it gets to 5 sets, you want to be on Tommy’s side, as he has won 15 of 19 career 5 setters, compared to Stan’s 20 of 35.
I really like Tommy to cover the 18.5 games tally on offer for him at Sportsbet. If he wins he should do that. If he loses in 5 he should do it, and he could do it losing in 4 sets. As with past matches, I think this bet covers the most probable options for the outcome of the match, but I really like Tommy here. Having just come off playing Gasquet (another 1 handed backhand), Robredo will be ready and raring to go.
Suggested Bet: Robredo over 18.5 games at $1.91 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 80%
Suggested bet: Robredo h2h at $3.19 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund
Confidence: 65%
David Ferrer vs Florian Mayer
Road to the 4th round
ROUND ONE |
David Ferrer | Florian Mayer |
| Score | Def Gonzalez 6-3 6-3 6-4 | Def Kudla 6-4 6-2 6-4 |
| Aces | 2 | 6 |
| Double Faults | 6 | 1 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 53% (44/83) | 58% (48/83) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 64% (28/44) | 75% (36/48) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 54% (21/39) | 63% (22/35) |
| Break Points Saved | 29% (2/7) | 67% (2/3) |
| Service Games Played | 15 | 14 |
| Statistics on Return | ||
| 1st Return Points Won | 43% (26/60) | 39% (22/57) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 75% (21/28) | 54% (21/39) |
| Break Points Won | 67% (8/12) | 45% (5/11) |
| Return Games Played | 14 | 14 |
| Statistics on Points | ||
| Total Service Points Won | 59% (49/83) | 70% (58/83) |
| Total Return Points Won | 53% (47/88) | 45% (43/96) |
| Total Points Won | 56% (96/171) | 56% (101/179) |
| Detailed Statistics | ||
| Winners | 33 | 25 |
| Unforced Errors | 30 | 23 |
| Net Approaches | 18 | 11 |
| Points Won at Net | 22 | 14 |
| Fastest Serve | 193kph | N/A |
| Average 1st Serve | 175kph | N/A |
| Average 2nd Serve | 146kph | N/A |
ROUND TWO |
David Ferrer | Florian Mayer |
| Score | Def Mannarino 7-6 5-7 6-0 6-3 | Def Youzhny 6-4 3-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 |
| Aces | 0 | 19 |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 68% (80/118) | 60% (76/127) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 70% (56/80) | 78% (59/76) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 47% (18/38) | 65% (33/51) |
| Break Points Saved | 50% (5/10) | 57% (4/7) |
| Service Games Played | 19 | 23 |
| Statistics on Return | ||
| 1st Return Points Won | 42% (32/76) | 26% (19/74) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 59% (36/61) | 41% (25/61) |
| Break Points Won | 53% (9/17) | 36% (4/11) |
| Return Games Played | 20 | 23 |
| Statistics on Points | ||
| Total Service Points Won | 63% (74/118) | 72% (92/127) |
| Total Return Points Won | 50% (68/137) | 33% (44/135) |
| Total Points Won | 56% (142/255) | 52% (136/262) |
| Detailed Statistics | ||
| Winners | 32 | 48 |
| Unforced Errors | 48 | 41 |
| Net Approaches | 21 | 29 |
| Points Won at Net | 22 | 42 |
| Fastest Serve | 187kph | 200kph |
| Average 1st Serve | 174kph | 178kph |
| Average 2nd Serve | 144kph | 134kph |
ROUND THREE |
David Ferrer | Florian Mayer |
| Score | Def Chardy 6-2 7-6 6-2 | Def Janowicz 7-5 6-2 6-2 |
| Aces | 2 | 17 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 72% (63/87) | 68% (46/68) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 70% (44/63) | 91% (42/46) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 71% (17/24) | 68% (15/22) |
| Break Points Saved | 67% (2/3) | 100% (1/1) |
| Service Games Played | 14 | 14 |
| Statistics on Return | ||
| 1st Return Points Won | 31% (20/64) | 31% (15/49) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 64% (30/47) | 59% (26/44) |
| Break Points Won | 45% (5/11) | 45% (5/11) |
| Return Games Played | 14 | 14 |
| Statistics on Points | ||
| Total Service Points Won | 70% (61/87) | 84% (57/68) |
| Total Return Points Won | 45% (50/111) | 44% (41/93) |
| Total Points Won | 56% (111/198) | 61% (98/161) |
| Detailed Statistics | ||
| Winners | 22 | 38 |
| Unforced Errors | 24 | 7 |
| Net Approaches | 10 | 12 |
| Points Won at Net | 12 | 13 |
| Fastest Serve | 187kph | 188kph |
| Average 1st Serve | 173kph | 165kph |
| Average 2nd Serve | 144kph | 132kph |
I spent a long time going back over stats on Ferrer and how he has travelled at hardcourt level at this level of a Grand Slam level in regards to personal games won. I then decided that this isn’t the David Ferrer of the last few years. This Ferrer is more vulnerable in my opinion, and Florian Mayer can push him today if he is on his game.
I think David Ferrer over 19.5 games is the most suitable play here, as (like yesterday) it covers in my opinion the most likely results:
– Ferrer in 4 or 5
– Mayer in 5 (or possibly 4)
– Ferrer in 3 tight sets
I think this is going to be a tighter match than the odds suggest. I wanted to take Mayer h2h here but I think this is the smarter play on the match in all honesty. David Ferrer’s opponents have combined for 165 unforced errors in 10 sets of tennis this week, and I don’t think Florian Mayer will give it to him as easily as others (Mayer 73 errors in 11 sets of tennis).
I think Mayer can push Ferrer here on form. If he can keep his errors down, Ferrer is -16 in the winners/unforced errors differential for the match, so Ferrer may struggle to put the German away.
Mayer will seriously challenge Ferrer here, and possibly even win. Ferrer over 19.5 games is the safe, great option in my opinion.
Suggested Bet: David Ferrer over 19.5 games at $1.76 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 80%
E Makarova vs N Li
Suggested Bet: Makarova over 9.5 games at $1.97 at Sportsbet (Posted on Twitter Sunday morning)
Confidence: 70%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
