Best Bet
Grigor Dimitrov over 20.5 games at $1.83 at Sportsbet
Best Value
Dimitrov/Raonic First set over 10.5 games at $2.53 at Sportsbet
Grigor Dimitrov vs Milos Raonic
| Round 1 | Grigor Dimitrov |
Milos Raonic |
|
| Score | Def Klahn 6-7 6-4 6-4 6-3 | Def Gimeno Traver 7-6 6-1 4-6 6-2 | |
| Aces | 14 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 7 | |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 57% (62/108) | 64% (65/101) | |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 89% (55/62) | 86% (56/65) | |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 65% (30/46) | 47% (17/36) | |
| Break Points Saved | 0% (0/0) | 50% (3/6) | |
| Service Games Played | 20 | 18 | |
| Statistics on Return | |||
| 1st Return Points Won | 28% (21/75) | 37% (25/68) | |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 49% (27/55) | 54% (29/54) | |
| Break Points Won | 50% (4/8) | 35% (7/20) | |
| Return Games Played | 21 | 19 | |
| Statistics on Points | |||
| Total Service Points Won | 79% (85/108) | 72% (73/101) | |
| Total Return Points Won | 37% (48/130) | 44% (54/122) | |
| Total Points Won | 56% (133/238) | 57% (127/223) | |
| Detailed Statistics | |||
| Winners | N/A | 48 | |
| Unforced Errors | N/A | 29 | |
| Net Approaches | N/A | 21 | |
| Points Won at Net | N/A | 30 | |
| Fastest Serve | N/A | 226kph | |
| Average 1st Serve | N/A | 197kph | |
| Average 2nd Serve | N/A | 155kph | |
| Round 2 | Grigor Dimitrov |
Milos Raonic |
| Score | Def Lu 6-3 6-3 7-6 | Def Hanescu 7-6 6-4 6-4 |
| Aces | 15 | 27 |
| Double Faults | 7 | 2 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 59% (57/96) | 64% (67/104) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 86% (49/57) | 85% (57/67) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 46% (18/39) | 62% (23/37) |
| Break Points Saved | 50% (2/4) | 100% (5/5) |
| Service Games Played | 15 | 16 |
| Statistics on Return | ||
| 1st Return Points Won | 42% (34/81) | 28% (21/76) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 46% (16/35) | 41% (15/37) |
| Break Points Won | 24% (5/21) | 33% (2/6) |
| Return Games Played | 15 | 16 |
| Statistics on Points | ||
| Total Service Points Won | 70% (67/96) | 77% (80/104) |
| Total Return Points Won | 43% (50/116) | 32% (36/113) |
| Total Points Won | 55% (117/212) | 53% (116/217) |
| Detailed Statistics | ||
| Winners | 36 | 63 |
| Unforced Errors | 35 | 36 |
| Net Approaches | 5 | 17 |
| Points Won at Net | 9 | 25 |
| Fastest Serve | 216kph | N/A |
| Average 1st Serve | 196kph | N/A |
| Average 2nd Serve | 155kph | N/A |
This is a matchup you need to get used to seeing. Two of the younger, more talented players go at it in the best of 5 sets format. This is going to be a cracking match, and a very close one in my opinion.
Both players have made it through the first few rounds with ease, comfortably dealing with the conditions on the whole. The men have split their previous meetings 1-1 at this level. Both use their serves as a weapon, providing very few BP opportunities for their opponents (15 BP opps in 69 service games between the two this week). In their previous meetings, there have only been 9 break points between them, for 4 service breaks.
The way I look at this match, both players are playing too well to be beaten in straight sets. This may be a case of who can make the most of the few opportunities presented to them. I like this to be a close match, of at least 4 sets. I think this is more of a 50/50 match than the odds suggest. Raonic is the stronger serving, however Dimitrov is the stronger returner. If Dimitrov looks after his serve, can he find enough opportunities to break Milos?
NOTE: 6 of the last 8 and 8 of the last 11 first sets on hardcourt for Milos Raonic have ended in a tiebreak, as has 2 of the last 4 for Dimitrov. Further to the Raonic stat, 12 of his last 16 first sets against top 50 players have gone over 10.5 games, and 6 of the last 7 against top 20 players (which Dimitrov will soon be you’d think). Both players have strong serves, and I think it may take a set for both players to become accustomed to their opponents serve. Even if a few break points are faced in the first set, I like the server to save them. Between the 2 so far this week, they have only dropped serve 5 times in 69 service games, and 2 of those were Raonic becoming accustomed to the environment and weather on Tuesday in the heat. I am taking the first set to be over 10.5 games here at $2.52, as I see this as significant value considering the players here.
I am also going to take Grigor Dimitrov over 20.5 games here too. I think it best sits the most likely scenarios for this match in my opinion:
– Either player in 5 sets
– Grigor in 4 sets
– Potentially Raonic in 4 sets (considering likelihood of a tiebreak or 2)
As a result, this is the standout play for mine. If Dimitrov gets on top, you have to think Raonic is of good enough quality to take a set (even if in a tiebreak). I actually believe both players go over their projected player lines at Sportsbet, however I will side with Dimitrov on this one.
Suggested Bets
1) Grigor Dimitrov over 20.5 games at $1.83 at Sportsbet (80% confidence)
2) First set over 10.5 games at $2.53 at Sportsbet (70% confidence)
Cibulkova vs Suarez Navarro
Suggested Bets
Cibulkova 1st set winner at $1.70 at Pinnacle (70% confidence)
Suarez Navarro under 11.5 games at $1.91 at Sportsbet (70% confidence)
ATP Doubles 2-leg multi
Paes & Stepanek h2h vs Bracciali/Dolgopolov
Huey & Inglot h2h vs Seppi/Starace
Pays $1.91 at Sportsbet (Confidence 70%)
Rafael Nadal vs Gael Monfils
Suggested Bets
Gael Monfils to win a set at $2.20 at Sportingbet (confidence 70%)
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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