The weather has made things challenging this week for the players and tipsters. Safe to say that the last few days haven’t turned out as we would have hoped.
I am really just waiting to see how the play unfolds today, so no plays at this stage, it’s a long Grand Slam after all and our more confident bets do come near the end.
Sam Stosur vs Ana Ivanovic
Road to the 3rd round:
Sam Stosur def Klara Zakapalova 6-3 6-4
Sam Stosur def Tsvetana Pironkova 6-2 6-0
Ana Ivanovic def Kiki Bertens 6-4 6-4
Ana Ivanovic def Annika Beck 6-1 6-2
Winners
Ana Ivanovic 30
Sam Stosur 42
Unforced Errors
Ana Ivanovic 39
Sam Stosur 33
Past h2h on hardcourt (excluding round robin)
Oct 14, 2013 – Stosur def Ivanovic 7-5 6-4 (Indoor)
Oct 15, 2012 – Stosur def Ivanovic 2-6 6-3 6-2 (Indoor)
Aug 9, 2009 – Stosur def Ivanovic 6-3 6-2
Jan 16, 2006 – Stosur def Ivanovic 6-3 7-5
I have faith in Sam here. She has been impressive to start the tournament here, and she just looks a different player to the one who has graced Melbourne Park the last few years. This is the type of match you want to be on Sam. Underdog (albeit slightly) against a higher ranked player, means the pressure valve is released slightly for Sam.
She has been really solid through her first two rounds, with a winners/unforced errors differential of +9. The serve is going well and always causes Ana some grief.
I saw Ana live on Monday and I was far from impressed. Her opponent could barely walk after a set and she still scraped by with a 6-4 6-4 win. Any player would have beaten Annika Beck on Wednesday, with Beck hurling out 29 unforced errors. Looking at how her Auckland opponents have struggled this week in Aus (including Venus Williams), I think the Ivanovic form is overrated.
Sam wins here, potentially in straight sets. I like her to move of to face Serena on Sunday.
Suggested Bet: Sam Stosur h2h at $2.25 at Sportingbet
Confidence: 75%
Sam Querrey vs Fabio Fognini
Road to the 3rd round:
Sam Querrey def Santiago Giraldo 6-3 6-2 3-6 7-6
Sam Querrey def Ernests Gulbis 6-2 6-3 6-4
Fabio Fognini def Alex Bogomolov 6-3 6-2 ret.
Fabio Fognini def Jarkko Nieminen 7-5 6-4 3-6 6-2
Winners:
Fognini 71
Querrey 77
Unforced Errors
Fognini 92
Querrey 66
Bit of an interesting matchup here with big hitting Sam Querrey taking on the erratic Fabio Fognini. Both players have played solidly here, however Querrey is in much better form in my opinion. Fognini was gifted a round 1 win with Bogomolov struggling in the heat, then got the better of Nieminen who struggled to back up from his long 5 setter from Monday in the heat of the day.
The cool change has hit so the heat is no longer a factor here. Fognini has been flashy at best here. He has made the best of his draw and circumstances, but he may struggle here against Querrey.
If Querrey looks after his serve, he will have ample attempts at breaking Fognini throughout the match. He has got off to some great starts so far this tournament, so look for that trend to continue here. Hopefully Querrey can get a break or two early and build his confidence from there.
STAT: In his 22 losses at Grand Slam level, Fabio Fognini has only covered a +2.5 handicap once, and it was by 0.5 games. He isn’t renowned for keeping it particularly close in losses, as there is a tendency for a blowout set or two.
Suggested Bet: Sam Querrey -2.5 games at $1.84 at Pinnacle
Confidence: 75%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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