It was nice to get the first best bet of the tournament home yesterday, albeit in incredibly stressful circumstances. Janowicz won from a set and a break down, and Pospisil…well…won without being able to move a whole lot, with Matt Ebden trading into $1.02 during a Pospisil injury timeout.

Onto today, and a very hot day at that!

Best Bet

Jack Sock/Gael Monfils over 31.5 games at $1.72 at Sportsbet (Jack Sock best upset chance of the day at $8)

Nick Kyrgios +4.5 games at $1.952 at Pinnacle – *Write-up to come*

Next Best

Lu +4 games at $1.83 at Sportingbet

Upset Alert

Jack Sock h2h at $9.80 at Betfair

Nick Kyrgios h2h at $2.99 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund

Gael Monfils vs Jack Sock

I just could not take Gael Monfils at this price, in best of 5 tennis, in this weather. Jack Sock has proven me wrong a few times this year. He impressed me round 1 in his defeat of Tobias Kamke in 4 sets, running away with it in the 3rd and 4th. His serving has been impressive and he remarked after the match the other day that he could have gone on and on and on.

When you cast an eye over Monfil’s form at Grand Slam level, you see a list of very longggggg matches. Only 7 of his 24 career 2nd round matches has been decided in 3 sets, and even a couple of those have gone over the listed games total here.

I personally cannot contemplate taking Monfils at $1.11 at any 5 set match. I was at Monfil’s match last year against Yen-Hsun Lu and was shocked at how much Monfils struggled in the heated conditions. Here is a link to an article on the match: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/tennis/2013/01/17/australian-open-gael-monfils-sloane-stephens-heat/1841765/

I like Sock here. I can never trust Monfils, and considering his fast paced and flashy play, there is always the potential for lapses or injuries or struggles with the heat. I think Sock can take this over 31.5 games, and perhaps push Monfils even further. The +7 games is also incredibly appealing, as Monfils has been known to tank sets if down a break early in a set (while in command of a match), however I am happy to side with the overs here and a lay of Monfils pre-match.

Suggested Bet: Jack Sock/Gael Monfils over 31.5 games at $1.72 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 80%
Also suggest a LAY Gael Monfils at $1.11 on Betfair and set up a personal in-play BACK at your preferred price at Betfair

Yen-Hsun Lu vs Grigor Dimitrov

Those who have been following me for a while know that I do think Dimitrov is a quality player in the best of 3 set format. In the best of 5 set format however, he is still unproven at Grand Slam level.

Yen Hsun Lu has had a great start to the year. Technically sound, Lu will provide a tough task for Dimitrov, who may struggle at times with his high tempo, high intensity strokeplay in the heat of the Melbourne evening.

You look at the form to start the year and you cannot look past the great effort of Lu in Auckland, and I really like taking the +4 game handicap here. I think Lu is a huge chance of an upset, so 2 sets should cover this handicap you’d think (maybe even one!)

Lu won’t give anything to Dimitrov easily, Grigor is going to have to earn this in the heat of the day.

Suggested Bet: Lu +4 games at $1.83 at Sportingbet
Confidence: 70% 

Plays tweeted this morning

Alize Cornet vs Camila Giorgi 

Suggested Bet: Cornet -3.5 games at $1.80 at Luxbet (tweeted Thursday morning)
Confidence: 70%

Blaz Rola vs Martin Klizan

I just cannot have Martin Klizan in any confidence today. Ignore the fact he was 2 sets to 0 up on an ailing John Isner and you will see there isn’t much by way of form here. Rola has had a great week to date, and I think he is a massive chance to get over Klizan here, as long as he looks after his serve (8/8 break points saved round 1, only broken 4 times in last 10 sets of tennis).

The first set will be crucial in this heat, so hopefully Rola can get on top early. Klizan was broken 8 times in qualifying, and actually lost (is a lucky loser), and I am tipping the luck to run out here.

Suggested Bet: Blaz Rola h2h at $2.34 at Sportsbet with 5 set refund (As tweeted this morning)
Confidence: 65%

Please Note:

All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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