What a crazy, heated day of tennis we had on day 1! There were a few upsets, and all players had the extreme heat to deal with. I had a lot of tight losses on Day 1, however the Dodig first set 7-6 correct score helped things along. Had Nicolas Mahut snagged the 5th set against Matthew Ebden, it would have been a great day.

Using flat 1 stakes for all posted confirmed bets (will use 2 stakes for best bets when they appear in tournament), day 1 concluded on single plays:

13 stakes risked

16.78 stakes returned

ROI +29.07%

Multis 0/1

Considering it is 43 degrees (or close to it) today, I am happy to lay low and take a couple of favourites at the line. Tonight though, I am taking an Aussie that I generally am not a fan of at all.

A NOTE TO THOSE ASKING – If Seppi turns around his lead-up form, yes he is value against Hewitt. I am not getting involved with either player at the odds, but if I had to side one way it’d be Seppi considering what I saw in their last meeting in Shanghai.

Multi – Bet365

Cilic -5.5 games

Verdasco 3-0

Kamke h2h

Bautista Agut h2h

Pays $6.27 at Bet365

Marin Cilic vs Marcel Granollers

An interesting matchup here, with Cilic holding a commanding 5-1 h2h record over Granollers. What is interesting to note with Granollers is in his career in hardcourt Grand Slams, he has never covered +5.5 games. When you cast an eye over Granollers’ matches, there is a higher frequency of 6-1 and 6-2 sets compared to other players. If Cilic can look after his serve, then he should be able to control this match, with at least one 6-1 or 6-2 set.

Suggested Bet: Marin Cilic -5.5 games at $1.80 at Pinnacle
Confidence: 70%

Fernando Verdasco vs Ze Zhang

I have a high opinion of Fernando this tournament. If he starts well, I think he can run away with this one in straight sets. Casting an eye over the Q form of Zhang, he gave up a lot of break point opportunities to less players (including a LOT against Schwartzman), so I like Fernando to start well and carry across his form from late last year/early this year.

I tossed up 3-0 set betting and -7.5 games, but have gone with the straight sets option.

Suggested Bet: Fernando Verdasco 3-0 set betting at $1.72 at Bet365 ($1.85 in betfair multi product)
Confidence: 70%

Tobias Kamke vs Jack Sock

The style in which Jack Sock plays tennis is certainly not suited to 40+ degree heat. Both players have had solid lead-up form, with Kamke pushing Nadal to the limit and Jack Sock beating Tommy Haas (although considering fitness, I am not sure that win is all it is cracked up to be).

These two met late last year on indoor hardcourt, with Kamke winning 6-0 6-4. I really think this is a poor match-up for Jack Sock, and I question his ability to keep up his high intensity tennis, and I think Kamke will grind down Jack Sock in a similar way to Bautista Agut in Auckland last week, where Sock lost in straight sets.

Suggested Bet: Tobias Kamke -2.5 games at $1.90 at Bet365
Confidence: 70%

Bernard Tomic vs Rafael Nadal

I have tossed and turned on this one for a few days now. I really think this is over the odds considering the players and the location of the match. Rafa and his uncle have not kept their displeasure regarding the court a secret. The court in Rafa’s opinion is faster than when he was last here in 2012.

I have seen some info on social media that suggests that Rafa has not been handling the surface as well in practice sessions as hoped. That, combined with the extreme blistering on Nadal’s hand (twitter search ‘Nadal hand’) moreso than usual and Nadal’s slightly below average lead-up form, lead to me thinking Tomic could get the jump on Rafa tonight.

You cast an eye over 2013 for Rafa and it is simply remarkable. He is 79-7 across the last 12 months, and in Grand Slams on hardcourt he is 147-3 when winning the first set. In first sets across the last 12 months, he is 69-17, so if you are going to take Rafa on, I think it is in the first set.

I went back and watched some aspects of their meeting 3 years ago, and I thought Tomic was starting to figure things out by the end of the match. If Tomic can his his off-forehand towards Nadal’s forehand, he can use his natural variation to slide the ball away from Nadal and have Rafa reaching for his forehand. If he steps inside the baseline on second serves and becomes assertive, he can challenge Rafa here.

Nadal finished the season pretty slowly, struggling through a bunch of matches that he should have won easily. He admitted that the off-season was probably too short, has been on anti-inflamms since the start of 2013, and wanted to get more matches under his belt for match fitness.

If Tomic is to do well here, he needs to win the first set. Nadal is 147-3 after winning the first set in Grand Slam matches, so Tomic needs to get the jump here to be any chance.

Klizan, Brands and Darcis did it early in Slams last year, so why can’t Tomic?

Suggested Bet: Bernard Tomic 1st set winner at $6 at Bet365 (Note – $6.75 in Betfair multi product)
Confidence: 50%

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Photo By globalite [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons