Welcome to Day 1 ATP Plays. WTA and other multi plays will be added later. I thought I would post these now while I know the prices are accurate.
I must stress there are no Best Bets here, as I never post a best bet in round 1 of a tournament, especially a Grand Slam. I feel I am stronger as the tournament progresses as more statistics become available.
Here is a list of the future plays and trades:
Outright Selection
Juan Martin Del Potro (From November at $15)
Note: It is easy to take the $1.85 or so for Novak Djokovic, but I do think Del Potro is value.
Name the Finalists
Del Potro & Djokovic at $7 at Bet365
Stage of Elimination
Roger Federer – 4th round at $4.50 at Sportsbet
Quarter Bets
Tomas Berdych to win quarter 3 at $2.75 at Sportingbet
Jo Tsonga to win quarter 2 at $5.20 at Sportsbet/Fernando Verdasco small play at $34
Juan Martin Del Potro to win quarter 1 at $3.65 at Sportingbet
Lleyton Hewitt to win quarter at $21 at Sportsbet (intention to lay off Round 4 if vs Nadal, otherwise at 1/4 final)
Trading Value (Betfair)
Tsonga at 60-1 – trade off at SF if reached
Berdych at 70-1 – trade off at SF if reached
First Set Tiebreak Value Multi (Betfair) – much shorter elsewhere
Play ‘Karlovic 1st set 7-6 into Djokovic h2h at $8.08 at Betfair multi section
AND
Play Dodig 1st set 7-6 into Djokovic h2h at $7.32 at Befair multi section
Serena Williams vs Ash Barty
The line for Serena here is -8 games. In the 1st and 2nd rounds of the US Open and Aus Open since the start of 2010, Serena has covered -8 games 9 times, failed twice, and refunded once. With Barty under a slight cloud too, I see Serena overpowering her here.
Suggested Bet: Serena Williams -8 games at $1.93 at Sportingbet
Confidence: 75%
Note: 4 of last 9 first sets of first rounds of Aus Open/US Open have ended with Serena winning 6-0. First set 6-0 is $6.50 at Sportsbet.
Nicolas Mahut vs Matthew Ebden
Happy to fade Ebden here. His two matches in Australia to start the summer have been poor, and I think at times Nicolas Mahut has been severely underrated in the last fortnight. I very nearly tipped Mahut in straight sets here (I would if overseas), and Ebden would need to do a complete form reversal to get the job done here.
On form, past head to head and conditions, this has to be the play.
Suggested Bet: Mahut -2.5 games at $1.80 at Luxbet (Note: Mahut h2h with 5 set refund posted a few days ago)
Confidence: 75%
Tomas Berdych vs Aleksandr Nedovyesov
I get the feeling this really will be one way traffic. When you look at Nedovyesov and his form, it is putrid. He has NEVER played a top 50 player on hardcourt, and in completed hardcourt matches vs top 90 ranked players in his career (Lacko, Sela, Bogomolov), he never won more than 3 games in a set, and only reached 3 once, and only earned 2 break points, neither capitalised upon. This seems the logical play.
Suggested Bet: Nedovyesov under 9.5 total games at $1.73 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 75%
Ivo Karlovic vs Ivan Dodig
I was mighty close to tipping Ivo Karlovic here, however the h2h record did sway me away. I do think he has at least a set (or two) in him, and when you consider the nature of Karlovic sets, I would suggest a 4 set match should cover the 41.5 games on offer and taken this morning. Ideally these guys split tiebreaks in the first two sets, as that would really set this play up well.
Suggested Bet: Over 41.5 games at $1.80 at Sportsbet (as posted on twitter this morning)
Confidence: 75%
Mikhail Youzhny vs Jan-Lennard Struff
There is something about an ‘over’ bet that always appeals with matches involving Mikhail Youzhny. I got to watch Mikhail live at Kooyong on Thursday, and he wasn’t particularly super. He has a tendency to sometimes start slowly, as shown by his recent form at Melbourne Park. 5 of his last 7 matches at Melbourne Park have gone to 5 sets, which suggests he can be quite sluggish to start the year. Having
Struff was quite impressive against Marin Cilic in Sydney, and found himself earning many break point opportunities against Marin, who is arguably more consistent than Youzhny.
Happy to side with the overs here, as I see a 4 set match (with a few tight sets) or possibly a 5 set match here with the usual Youzhny lapse at some point in the match.
Suggested Bet: Over 36.5 games at $1.84 at Luxbet
Confidence: 70%
Florian Mayer vs Denis Kudla
Mayer didn’t impress me in Sydney, and it is starting to look like his win over Andy Murray isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Kudla was very solid in Q rounds, and although he may not beat Mayer, he is a big chance to get the jump on Florian here in the first set.
Florian Mayer has played 29 completed hardcourt Grand Slam matches in his career. He is 13-16 across that timeframe, however has only won 9 first sets (9-20). Mayer lost the first (and second) set to Kudla’s compatriot Rhyne Williams in a similar situation last year. Mayer was also 14-16 on hardcourt in first sets last year.
Mayer’s poor first set record, combined with Kudla’s solid play in qualifying, makes this a nice play at $3 in my opinion.
Suggested Bet: Denis Kudla 1st set winner at $3 at Sportingbet/Bet365
Confidence: 65%
Alejandro Gonzalez vs David Ferrer
David Ferrer has only covered a spread of 10 in a winning sense, on hardcourt, round 1, 3 times in 22. Gonzalez is solid on hardcourt at Challenger level, reaching the Sao Paolo Challenger Final.
This is a massive step up, however on form I think Alejandro can cover this handicap against the warrior in David Ferrer. I can’t trust Ferrer’s serve enough to side with him on this handicap (lost serve 3 times in each match in Auckland).
Suggested Bet: Gonzalez +10 games at $1.84 at Pinnacle
Confidence: 65%
Dolgopolov/Berankis & Querrey/Giraldo
Suggested Bet: Dolgopolov h2h into Querrey h2h at $1.96 at Sportingbet
Confidence: 65%
Venus Williams vs Ekaterina Makarova
Suggested Bet: over 21 games at $1.83 at Pinnacle/Sportingbet
Confidence: 65%
Julia Goerges vs Sara Errani
Suggested Bet: Goerges +4.5 games at $1.90 at Pinnacle
Confidence: 65%
Julien Benneteau vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Suggested Bet: Carreno Busta +6 games at $1.88 at Pinnacle
Confidence: 70%
OTHER SUGGESTIONS
Here is a list of other plays I did like the look of but ultimately have not played:
Groth/Pospisil over 39.5 games at Sportsbet
Garcia-Lopez +4.5 vs Haas (query Haas not at full fitness – left alone)
Kukushkin h2h vs Falla
Ramos -1.5 sets vs Andujar
Bogomolov Jnr +3 games vs Fognini (query Fognini fitness)
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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