ATP Miami – James Blake vs Albert Ramos

Ace has been running hot as of late with his best bet and multibet getting up that were posted on twitter last night, so it is time for another detailed play that looks value. The match kicks off at midday tomorrow AEDST and confidence is high.

 

Round 1: Ramos got off to a solid start, defeating the 98th ranked Jan Hajek 6-3 6-1. To be honest though, 95% of those in the top 100 could have beaten Hajek. At ATP level, Hajek is 4-16 on hardcourt since the start of 2011, with 3 wins vs players ranked 100+ and one by retirement. So being honest, if Ramos didn’t win the way he did, I would have been surprised. Ramos broke 4 times from 10 opportunities on the way to his win.

Round 2: Ramos got through in tough three setter against Juan Monaco 6-2 4-6 6-3. Although broken on serve 3 times, he managed to break the serve of Monaco 6 times to get the win in just over 2 hours.

What worries me? Monaco had only won one set on hardcourt since the US Open, last August. Since Miami last year, he has won TWICE on hardcourt, vs Pospisil and Dimitrov (coming off a solid performance the week before – fatigued)

Something concerning for Ramos is the percentage of points won on first serve. 69% on first serve and 48% on second serve against an out of form Monaco.

 

Round 1: Started a slight underdog vs Ryan Harrison, and absolutely trounced him. Did the business in the night session 6-2 6-2 in quick time. Played a quality all-round match.

Round 2: Our best bet a few nights ago.6-2 6-3 at $2.58 over Julien Benneteau suggests that Blake is in great form. Blake may have been broken twice, but he broke Benneteau 6 times, winning over 50% of points on Benneteau’s first and second serves. It is an impressive feat to break a seeded player 6 times in 9 service games. Blake’s second serve wasn’t the best, but his high 1st serve points won % covered for that nicely.

Albert Ramos is 10-14 on hardcourt over the last 12 months

Albert Ramos is 0-8 on hardcourt over the last 12 months when he wins less than 68% on his 1st serve.

Albert Ramos is 5-0 on hardcourt over the last 12 months when he wins more than 62% of his 2nd serve points, BUT is 2-14 if he wins less than 68%

 

James Blake is 11-1 in the last 12 months on hardcourt when he wins more

than 57% of points on his opponents 2nd serve

James Blake is 17-1 in the last 12 months on hardcourt when he wins over 31.5% of points on his opponents 1st serve

James Blake is 13-1 in the last 12 months on hardcourt when he wins over 41.3 % of return points

James Blake is 0-10 in the last 12 months on hardcourt when he wins less than 45.5% of points on his 2nd serve

I think there are a large number of factors that sway this match in favour of James Blake. He has already played a night session here in Miami, he loves playing in the US and Miami on hardcourt, and he is high on confidence. Looking over this week and last week, he is playing probably his best tennis of the last 12 months. You can tell that going back and playing Challenger level tennis has improved his confidence out of sight.

Ramos hasn’t been particularly inspiring on hardcourt for some time now. Outside of Davis Cup, Monaco got the closest he has to a hardcourt victory all year against Ramos.

I think the majority of the factors and stats lead to a Blake win here. The standout ones from above are Ramos being 2-14 on hardcourt the last 12 months when winning less than 68% of points on 2nd serve. Considering Blake averages winning 38.9% of return points, and 52.3% 2nd serve returns on hardcourt over the last year, I think Ramos is in for a terrible time.

 

NOTE: Blake 2-0 isn’t bad either at around $2.30, but -2.5 is a bit safer.

Few little observations of other matches:

– Ferrer has made the 3rd round having not won a match. With Ferrer losing first-up last week, and Fognini absolutely destroying Llodra 2 days ago, can Fog get the win at $10? Line currently +5.5

– If you like Novak to cover his -7 line, may i suggest Devarrman under 5.5 games instead? $1.87 offshore at Pinnacle.

– Simon looks to be a solid multi leg for tonight if you are after one.