Welcome to the preview of the ATP Brisbane draw for 2013/2014! I will analyse the draw, and provide what I believe to be a good value selection for an outright tip.

The Top Half

Roger Federer ($2 – Bookmaker/Ladbrokes) must have been smiling at the gift of a draw he has received in his first outing in Brisbane. I cannot see him having too much trouble on his way to the final here in Brisbane, and the bookmakers agree with the posted odds having him an odds on favourite. Personally, I cannot take that price about Federer considering the 2013 he endured. Largely unsuccessful, Federer showed he is not the player he once was, with niggling injuries impacting his year. He started to show some promise towards the end of the year on the indoor hard. It is an interesting move to play Brisbane, as he has been renowned for playing Doha before coming to Australia. Last year, Federer didn’t play anywhere leading into Melbourne, so a change of tactics is interesting. It must also be noted that Federer is playing doubles, so an increased workload is planned for the week. Cannot see Fed having any issues before the final however, unless Jeremy Chardy ($51 – Bookmaker/Ladbrokes) or Kevin Anderson ($17 – Ladbrokes/Bookmaker) have had a huge off-season. Julien Benneteau is still yet to win an ATP title in his career, so the $34 on offer is in no way appealing.

The Bottom Half

The half loaded with quality players of the field. 5 of the top 7 chances in the betting are found in this half:

Nishikori ($11 Ladbrokes/Bookmaker)

Dimitrov ($11 Ladbrokes/Bookmaker)

Cilic ($15 Ladbrokes/Bookmaker)

Simon ($17 Ladbrokes/Bookmaker)

Hewitt ($23 Sportsbet/IASbet)

When you cast an eye over the head to head matrix of these 5 guys, you see there is a decent advantage for Gilles Simon, going 11-0 h2h vs the group (never met Nishikori however, and many meetings many years ago).

Brisbane hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for Nishikori in his two attempts, with losses to Baghdatis and Mathieu meaning he has never progressed beyond the QF stage. Nishikori really seemed to struggle late in the season, and there are always doubts over the body of Kei, as he seems to be held together by tape at times. It will be interesting to follow Kei this year as he has employed Michael Chang as an advisory coach going forward.

Grigor Dimitrov is defending finals points from last year. In hindsight looking back, the only big scalp along the way was Milos Raonic, who himself was quite out of form at the time. This is a far more competitive field than last year, and to be honest I am not sure he has the consistency yet to match it with some of these guys, and I see him falling in the 2nd round to Marin Cilic.

One of the controversies of the 2013 season, Marin Cilic came back from his drug ban late in the season with encouraging results. When you cast an eye over the year as a whole (outside of the ban), going 26-12 on the year and 14-6 on the hardcourt. He was very respectable in his loss the Del Potro on his return, and that small taste of competitive tennis will no doubt have kept him fired up over the off season. He is now coached by Goran Ivanisevic, who had this to say about Marin recently:

“The surface suits his game. He can do well here. It’s why we came early to Melbourne and then came here (Brisbane) on Christmas Eve. For me the main thing is to get matches for the Australian Open. I wouldn’t even worry if he went all the way (and won Brisbane). A couple more days for him and this year is no more. I expect him to have a good year. He has to change his game a little bit and we work on his serve and a more aggressive game. No one has a magic ball. He was No.9 and I think he can be much better.”

When you look at the quality of all players, and the odds on offer, I really like the $15 on offer for Marin.

I am not sure a full week of tennis is really what Lleyton Hewitt is after here in Brisbane. With Hewitt confirmed for the AAMI Classic, that should be just about enough tennis for him to get ready for the Australian Open in 2 weeks time. When you cast your eyes over the years, he has never performed well at this time of year, plus he has Gilles Simon to contend with and he has caused a lot of issues over the years!

Speaking of Gilles, I am not too sure he is the player he was when he went 11-0 against the other guys in this half of the draw. He has never been overly successful this time of year, and when you look at his hardcourt record in 2013 outside of France, it leaves a lot to be desired. Will be happily surprised if he goes far this week, but I think Marin Cilic or Kei Nishikori could get the better of him here.

Selection

The $15 available for Marin Cilic is value in my opinion, and my main play here. He is very hit or miss, so this bet could be over round 1, but I am happy to take the odds here regardless of the outcome. A smaller play on Gilles Simon at $17 also appeals.