Here we go again. 12 months on, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are back on Centre Court for the Wimbledon Final. I can’t wait for this one.
For those that remember, we were treated to an exceptional match this time last year, with Federer climbing off the canvas in the 4th set, before falling to Novak in 5 tight sets.
It is a really interesting matchup tonight, and with it actually comes my strongest bet of the tournament at the price.
Road to the Final
Novak Djokovic
Def Kohlschreiber 6-4 6-4 6-4
Def Nieminen 6-4 6-2 6-3
Def Tomic 6-3 6-3 6-3
Def Anderson 6-7 6-7 6-1 6-4 7-5
Def Cilic 6-4 6-4 6-4
I wouldn’t describe this fortnight as sensational from Novak, however he has done what he has needed to ensure he reaches the final. A couple of little ‘scares’ along the way with Novak requiring some medical timeouts, however I am going to assume that absolutely nothing is wrong, because well, Novak has form in that department.
Much like Federer, Novak can find his way out of tricky situations at times almost on his name and reputation alone. Novak flirted with an early exit vs Kevin Anderson, falling behind 2 sets to 0, then down a couple of break points in the middle of the 5th set before prevailing. What is perhaps more uncommon than usual with Novak is what appears to be a slightly higher number of break point opportunities allowed to opponents across the fortnight, even with a high percentage of first serves going into play. That being said, the form at stats of Novak do replicate his run last year (one big scare vs Cilic, and relatively untroubled the rest of the tournament apart from a close SF vs Dimitrov).
Roger Federer
Def Dzumhur 6-1 6-3 6-3
Def Querrey 6-4 6-2 6-2
Def Groth 6-4 6-4 6-7 6-2
Def Bautista Agut 6-2 6-2 6-3
Def Simon 6-3 7-5 6-2
Def Murray 7-5 7-5 6-4
4…….the number of break points Roger Federer has allowed to opponents throughout the entire tournament. Only one was converted, by Gilles Simon, and Federer broke back instantly. Most impressive of all was the systematic dismantling of Andy Murray in straight sets, committing only 11 unforced errors to go along with 56 winners (20 aces). Federer faced a break point in the first game of the match, and then was only pushed to Deuce once more all match. This is against a player who has only lost once since the start of Roland Garros, in 5 sets to Novak, and is renowned as one of the best returners of serve on tour. I would label this as sensational form leading into the final. As a number 2 ranked player, what better way to lead into a final vs the world number one than by dominating the world number 3 on their preferred surface?
This has been one of the most impressive runs to the final I can think of from any player across the last couple of years. I can only think of one moment of weakness from Federer all fortnight, and that was his double fault in the 3rd set tiebreak vs Sam Groth in the 3rd round.
Who Wins
There is something different about Wimbledon this year.
The past fortnight has been vintage Federer, and it has been brilliant to see. Now it takes a lot for me to oppose Novak Djokovic, but I find it incredibly difficult to see anything but a Federer victory here based on all the evidence. I am completely comfortable siding with Federer here. I know I will cop some criticism for this, but on grass, on current form, I would have Federer as a strong favourite, and as a result am making this a best bet. Take nothing away from Novak, he is playing brilliantly, but Federer is at another level at the moment, and I think he seizes the opportunity given to him today at the All England Club.
5 units Federer $2.05 at Pinnacle
