Here it is! The game that we have all been waiting for since the series began. It was always going to be a tough series and most people thought that it was going to head to a decider down in Sydney. A lot has occurred since Game 1 and it is interesting to look back and see what has taken place in terms of player development, form and performance. Before the series began, many teams in the competition still had hopes of making the Finals but the time is quickly running out for them. Now, players that are part of those sides will want to achieve something at this level to make them feel as though they have accomplished something for the season. This game will mean much more to the fans of both states and this is arguably the best chance that the Blues have had in terms of ending the Maroon’s dominance over them. For the Game 3 decider last year, the Blues had to head up to the cauldron that is Suncorp Stadium to try and overthrow the Maroons on their home turf. It was never going to be something that was easy to achieve and in the end they only went down by the field goal that came off the boot of Cooper Cronk. It was heartbreaking for the Blues but the memory of that game will be fresh in their minds and there is no doubt that they will be using it for inspiration. For the Queenslanders, inspiration and motivation is something that they will not need. They have a chance to extend their winning streak to 8 series in a row and ensure that the Blues have another miserable wait to lift the title again. If you support them, it has been brilliant to watch and until the players that are apart of this team retire, I don’t think we will truly be able to understand just how talented this team is. Several players in this side are no doubt future immortals of the game and it is going to be extremely difficult for the Blues to overcome this prospect. This game promises to be much more than just a regular SOO contest and the excitement in and around this game will be massive. There are several things that could derail this contest though and majority of the hype will focus on another possible “fight”. The referee’s must take control of the game early while at the same time, being careful not to impact too heavily of the outcome. Hopefully this game delivers the great contest that everyone wants to see and we are left talking about a great game of rugby league.

New South Wales

1. Josh Dugan 2. James McManus 3. Michael Jennings 4. Josh Morris 5. Brett Morris 6. James Maloney 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. Aaron Woods 9. Robbie Farrah (c) 10. James Tamou 11. Luke Lewis 12. Ryan Hoffman 13. Greg Bird Interchange: 14. Anthony Watmough 15. Trent Merrin 16. Andrew Fifita 17. Boyd Cordner

Much like it was in Game 2, the preparation from the Blues has not gone according to plan. Luckily for them, this time off-field issues have not plagued their training but rather it has been injury. It has been frustrating to say the least and even in the lead up to the final team being named, the Blues coach Laurie Daley was forced to name a few extra players as covers for those who are injured. Since then, both Jarryd Hayne and Paul Gallen have had to withdraw and this has seen James McManus and Aaron Woods called in as their replacements. Woods did feature in last match but was relegated out of the side with the return of James Tamou from his NRL enforced suspension for a drink-driving charge. As for McManus, the Queenslanders attempted to work the ball to the left hand side of the field more often and it was slowly picking apart the defensive fragilities of the Blues. They will have to abandon the “rush-in” defence shown by Nathan Merritt last match and they will place a greater emphasis on McManus trusting his inside man, Josh Morris. Robbie Farrah takes over the job over captain and he will be as inspirational as Gallen, but the Blues would certainly prefer to have him at their disposal in this game. On the bench, Daley has finally made the tough call on Josh Reynolds and dropped him from the side, with his position being taken by rookie Boyd Cordner. Cordner has been fantastic this season for the Roosters and has been a player that has come of age. No doubt this decision was a tough one but it was confusing to see just how Reynolds fitted into this side. The omission of Gallen may’ve just forced Daley’s hand a little and without the same input he would normally have from his captain, he has chosen to go with another forward on the bench. Apart from that, things remain the same but the pressure on the Blues isn’t going away. There are still plenty of questions being raised about Mitchell Pearce and his suitability at this level. The Blues kicking game has been poor throughout this series and their inability to gain a repeat set has reduced the amount of pressure that they are trying to build on their opponents. They need to keep the match in the forwards and much like Game 1, allow the Maroon’s to be unsettled and dominated through the middle part of the field.

FTS Options

Best Chance = Brett Morris $8 – Morris is always a threat when he has the ball in an attacking position. Expect the Blues to get him a lot more ball in those situations and there were several signs in Game 2 that Jennings will attract two defenders and have Morris free on the outside of him.

Outsider = Luke Lewis $17 – In Game 2, I recommended taking Lewis as the Blues outsider and nothing will change here in this match. The game plan of attacking Thurston on the edge will still be a priority but they were unable to execute last match due to the lack of possession. If things do change here, expect Lewis to go very close to scoring.

Queensland

1. Billy Slater 2. Darius Boyd 3. Greg Inglis 4. Justin Hodges 5. Brent Tate 6. Johnathan Thurston 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Matt Scott 9. Cameron Smith (c) 10. Nate Myles 11. Chris McQueen 12. Sam Thaiday 13. Corey Parker Interchange: 14. Daley Cherry-Evans 15. Matt Gillett 16. Ben Te’o 17. Josh Papalii

Coming off a very pleasing performance in Game 2, the Maroon’s had little reason to altar their team. They completely dominated the Blues for majority of the game and it was a very impressive display. The build-up for them has been relatively uneventful as well and it has been a relaxing approach taken, as they took up the opportunity to reside at one of their sponsors “islands” where they would be free of trouble and of the press. More importantly though, they still would want to let their football do the talking and will take a lot of confidence away from their ability to bounce back from their performance in Game 1. Possession was a key for them early and the fact that the Blues had limited uses of the ball in the opening 20 minutes hurt their cause. What must be more worrying though is the fact that Greg Inglis is yet to reach his potential throughout the series. No doubt the Queenslanders are going to get the ball in his hands as much as possible and expect it to be another tough night at the office for his opponents. There were several periods during last game where the Maroon’s wouldn’t have been happy with their performance and again, it relates to their forwards. To overcome this, they will need a greater impact from the players coming onto the bench to maintain the early intensity set by the starters. It was interesting to see the roll that DCE filled when he took the field and it appears as though he will again play lock. This gives their coach Mal Meniga the choice of moving a player to the centres and allowing Inglis to rove around as a “second” fullback along with Billy Slater.

FTS Options

Best Chance = Darius Boyd @ $8 – Inglis is always a genuine threat and I still consider him a very high chance of scoring first. However Boyd is lucky enough to play outside him and like all good centres, he attracts more than one defender to him, leaving Boyd free on the outside.

Outsider = Cooper Cronk $21 – In Game 2, Cronk threw the pass at the line to Sam Thaiday to cross over first. He is running to the line very well and the Blues defenders may be a little more focused on his options, rather than him. One dummy, and he could stroll over for the first points of the night.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = NSW $ 2.50 QLD $1.55
Centrebet = NSW $2.50 QLD $1.56
Sportsbet = NSW $2.45 QLD $1.57
Betfair = NSW $2.68 QLD $1.58

Betting Options

First Try Scorer/Margin Double = I always recommend taking this option when having a first try scorer bet. The reason being is that Origin is generally a close contest. You would’ve felt hard done by with the Maroons winning by 13+ last match but the return home will lift the Blues to another level.

Winning margin = This game will be extremely close. Last year, the margin in the decider was just one-point and it is very likely that it will be the same here. Strongly consider taking either NSW 1-6 ($6) and/or QLD 1-6 ($5.25), both of which offer solid value.

Halftime/Fulltime Double = In an 80minute game, it would be difficult to see one team dominating the entire contest. It could even get to the point where both sides are locked up at halftime. Seriously consider taking either Draw/NSW ($15) or Draw/QLD ($13) depending on which way you think this game will go.

Tri Bet = Still can’t make up your mind but believe that it will be a tight contest? Then the option of “Either Team Under 6.5 points” @ $2.55 is a good way to go. Take it as fact, this will again be a close contest and winning by more than a converted try would be fairly surprising to see.

Man of the Match = It’s an easy formula! The MOM will always be selected from the winning side.
In Game 1, it was Luke Lewis who was rewarded for his efforts and he is again a chance ($13) if the Blues are victorious. Also consider Bird ($11) and Farrah ($76) for the Blues as they were great in Game 1 and will need to take on a greater responsibility without Gallen.
For the Maroons, a Game 2 victory gave Cameron Smith the opportunity to grab the honors although it could’ve gone to any number of players in their side. I am again expecting a big game from GI ($9) but it always hard to go past their playmakers. JT is out of form a little so I would have to favor Cronk ($8) for this but you also have to be wary of some forwards. Nate Myles ($17) always lifts for the big games and will be a leader again here for his side. Given how tough and close I am expecting this game to be, it is very hard to go past the two players that will add the most impact upon their team in the middle of the field.

Best selections = NSW – Bird ($11) QLD – Myles ($17)

Verdict

I wish you could place a bet on this game being an absolute cracker, because that’s exactly what it is going to be…and so much more! As for deciding on a winner, the choice between the two sides is going to be very difficult. Both sides have their positives and negatives to consider but the one thing that sticks out in my mind throughout the two games is the fact that the Maroon’s still look as though they’re yet to reach their potential. The strength of the Blues is in the forwards and if they cannot win the battle there, it is going to be a very long night for them. However with their opponents, if they’re unable to gain a victory in one area, they still have a host of players that are able to get the job done. If you are having a bet on this game, bet around the game being a close contest and nothing else. For what it is worth, I believe that the Maroon’s will continue their dominance over the Blues and it will be another long wait for them to get their revenge over their nemesis. They will not go down without a fight though (hopefully figuratively speaking) and this should be a game that is spoken about long after the full-time whistle has blown.

Good luck!
Scooby