We have a decider!!! After the Blues were successful in Game 2, the stage is set for a very hostile environment at Suncorp Stadium where battle lines will be drawn on Wednesday. It was a successful outing for the Blues in Melbourne; continually building pressure on their opponents and having a few calls go their way. That is the nature of the game though and while the Maroons will be ruing their missed chances, they cannot be upset with the situation they are now presented with. In each of the games this year, the better team has won and full credit must go to the Blues for the way in which they executed their tactics in Game 2. Their forwards were crucial to their success, as they established a very strong platform for the rest of the team to build off. This meant extra room for the halves and outside backs, with their speed shining through. The Queenslanders would’ve learnt a lot from that effort, with much being made of the lack of respect shown to certain players. The Maroons need to fight fire with fire and with numerous story lines building and the trash-talking running since the last match, the stage is set for an almighty contest in one of the most epic arenas in sport.
Queensland
1. Greg Inglis 2. Darius Boyd 3. Will Chambers 4. Justin Hodges 5. Gane Gagai 6. Johnathan Thurston 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Matt Scott 9. Cam Smith (c) 10. Nate Myles 11. Aidan Guerra 12. Sam Thaiday 13. Corey Parker
Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan 15. Josh Papalli 16. Matt Gillett 17. Jacob Lillyman
For once, the Queenslanders are forced to make a few changes and have been questioned for their inability to live up to the “pick and stick” mentality. Never far away from a headline, DCE has been left out of the side altogether, with Cooper Cronk coming back in at 7 and Michael Morgan being favored on the bench. Cronk was an automatic selection, as the Maroons really missed his contribution in Game 2; although this will be his first game back since injury and questions will linger about his match-fitness. Josh Maguire has also succumbed to an injury, with Josh Papalli named to replace him and have the task of taking the match to David Klemmer when he comes onto the field. Billy Slater has also been ruled out with injury, but they have a suitable replacement in Greg Inglis, who shifts from the centres. This means that Will Chambers will move in from the wing and Dane Gagai will make his debut on the edge. The fact that Cronk is back will change the functioning of the team, with pressure released on Thurston and Smith.
FTS and/or LTS Options
Best Choice = Dane Gagai @ $11 – He is new to Origin but that shouldn’t hamper his attacking ability. He has been dynamic at club level and playing outside Hodges should assist him with experience. Hopefully his centre can get rid of the ball when needed.
Value = Johnathan Thurston @ $19 – He is in surpreme form and watching him take the ball to the line with confidence is exciting. He is also not afraid to throw a dummy and go to the line himself; all this on top of fantastic support play makes him an often overlooked option.
Man of the Match = Johnathan Thurston @ $6.50 – It goes without saying that JT will have a very large impact on the outcome of this match. Having Cronk come back into the team releases the pressure that he will feel. He is the ultimate competitor and will want to give his team the best chance of winning in attack and defence.
New South Wales
1. Josh Dugan 2. Brett Morris 3. Michael Jenning 4. Josh Morris 5. Will Hopoate
6. Mitchell Pearce 7. Trent Hodkinson 8. Aaron Woods 9. Robbie Farrah/Michael Ennis 10. James Tamou 11. Beau Scott 12. Ryan Hoffman 13. Paul Gallen (c)
Interchange: 14. Trent Merrin 15. Boyd Cordner 16. David Klemmer 17. Josh Jackson
With winning form from Game 2, the Blues will be confident heading into this match. Furthermore, retaining relatively the same squad will enhance the belief within their team and they will consider themselves a real chance of winning back-to-back series. They have not been without trouble though, Michael Jennings, Beau Scott and Josh Jackson all considered chances of missing this match at one stage or another. Losing Robbie Farrah (injury) will be a blow to their chances, but the form of Michael Ennis so far this season has been superb. Laurie Daley will have to harness the same level of energy that was brought into their previous match, with the Blues forward pack leading the way with youthful play and an inconsiderate approach to the Maroons reputation. That will again be a cornerstone of their game plan, but they will also need to be well supported by their outside backs. While they were successful in Game 2, the Blues will need a different level altogether, as the atmosphere at Suncorp Stadium will buoy their opponents. Losing Robbie Farrah will be a blow to their chances, but the form of Michael Ennis so far this season has been superb.
FTS and/or LTS Options
Best Choice = Josh Dugan @ $13 – Dugan is crucial to the Blues success and if there is a break by one of his players, expect to see him looming up in support. Dugan also has the added freedom of roaming the field and if the Blues get close to the line, look for him to feature in conjunction with the halves.
Value = Ryan Hoffman @ $26 – He was a handful for the Maroons right side defence and Hoffman will again be a key component of the Blues left hand edge. With the form of Jennings from Game 2, expect the Maroons to push up hard and leave the option open for Hoffman at the line rather than the pass out the back.
Man of the Match = Mitchell Pearce @ $15 – He always cops a barrage of abuse about his form but so far this series, Pearce’s form has been great. He has lead his side around the field positively and he appears to have matured as a player. If the Blues are to win, they will again need a dynamic effort from him. We have seen his best football at 5/8 and he is not afraid to take the ball to the line. Additionally, he has a strong compliment of player outside him on the left edge.
Verdict
The two matches have uncovered something that suggests the Blues can win this match. No longer do they care about the reputations of the Queensland players, rather they are relying on their big forwards to dominate them in the middle of the field, which is turn creates more room for their outside backs. It sounds like a simple formula, however they are backing up it up with solid defence. They have been bruising in their tackles and are sending a message to their opponents that they are going to have to produce something special to break their line. It will not be easy though; the Queenslanders will be given a massive boost by the home crowd at Suncorp. They will also benefit from the cool, calm and collected nature of Cooper Cronk leading their team around at halfback. The questions around his match fitness by anyone that knows him and understands that he is the ultimate professional; doing anything necessary to play this match. However where this match matters most, the forwards, the Maroons do not look to be able to match the Blues. At the end of this match, this is what it will come down too. As for the margin of victory, things will certainly be tight, even going to extra time. This is an Origin decider and neither team will want to give away much. It is unlikely that there will be many points scored but to be safe, go for the smaller margin of victory, with the Blues prevailing to make it consecutive series.
Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.60
Two Blues! = NSW 1-12 @ $3 – It is all stated above, if you believe the Blues can do it, then select this option for more value; as opposed to sitting back and enjoying a tight contest, regardless of who comes out on top.
Good luck!
Scooby
