Australia v New Zealand
There is a break in normal proceedings this weekend, with a Test Match between the top two ranked teams in international rugby league. This test has struggled in recent years to gather much interest and with the much publicised issues with the Eels this weekend, the game has almost taken a back seat. The games title is still confusing to many also, with it referred to as the “ANZAC Test” as well as the “Trans Tasman Test”; regardless of the title, the players will run out onto Hunter Stadium on Friday Night desperate to grab a win. For the Kangaroo’s, motivation lies within the fact that the Kiwi’s are ranked Number 1 in the world and it is a position that they desperately want back. A win here will not be enough to change that, but it will be a great leap forward heading towards the World Cup next year. This game is also the first for new coach Mal Meniga and he is aiming to get his international career off to a good start after a dominating reign at the Maroons. His selections were somewhat surprising, with the opinion that Meniga may have taken the opportunity to “blood” a few players with an view towards 2017. Instead, he has chosen to go with older, experiences players. The Kiwi’s are struggling to field a full-strength outfit, with several key players missing from their lineup. This doesn’t mean that there isn’t quality within their team and coach Stephen Kearny has clearly opted to go with power in his side rather than flair. The Kiwi’s are always full of passion at this level and have the added advantage of beating the Kangaroo’s last year in this same fixture; something that the Aussies will want to avoid this time out.
Teams
Australia = 1. D. Boyd 2. S. Radradra 3. G. Inglis 4. J. Dugan 5. B. Ferguson 6. J. Thurston 7. C. Cronk 8. M. Scott 9. C. Smith 10. P. Gallen 11. J. Papalii 12. M. Gillett 13. C. Parker Interchange = 14. J. McGuire 15. M. Morgan 16. J. Tamou 17. S. Thaiday 18. A. Guerra
New Zealand = 1. J. Kahu 2. J. Nightingale 3. S. Kenny-Dowall 4. G. Beale 5. D. Watene- Zelezniak 6. T. Harris 7. S. Johnson 8. J. Bromwich 9. L. Brown 10. A. Blair 11. K. Proctor 12. M. Ma’u 13. J. Taumalolo Interchange = 14. K. Nikorima 15. G. Eastwood 16. M. Taupau 17. S. Moa 18. B. Takairangi 19. K. Bromwich
Verdict
The Kangaroos are heavily favored to win this game, based upon the players that are missing for the visitors, as well as the form of several players. That is a theory that makes sense, although there are question marks around the ability of the Aussies given the aging side that has been named. The Kangaroos should be too strong for their opponents by the end of this contest and that is because the Kiwi’s will struggle to score points. Their “spine” isn’t what it should be and without questioning their quality, Brown (hooker) and Harris (5/8) will not provide enough attacking opportunities to pressure their opponents. This means that responsibility will fall on Johnson and double what he is normally accustomed too; considering his form has been questionable at best, the Kangaroos will be out to exploit him as much as possible. Kodi Nikorima will take the field at some stage to give the visitors a boost, but this can only last so long. This is why they’re the desired selection and with all things considered, the margin of victory may be larger than what is expected. Take the Kangaroos to get over the line and towards the end of the match, do so comfortably.
Suggested Bet
Kangaroos -14.5 @ $1.90
Winning Margin = Kangaroos 13-18 @ $4.50 – The obvious choice for punters is a blowout on the scoreboard, however with the above mentioned points, this may not be completely true. More value is on offer for the Kangaroos to win by this margin, with the Kiwis keeping it fairly competitive throughout 80 minutes.
Flying Ferguson = Blake Ferguson FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – He scored first for his club team last week and he is again finding his best form. Moving to the wing gives him an advantage too, with two halves that are able to create opportunities either on the run or in the air.
Country v City
The struggling audition for selection in the NSW Origin team heads out to Tamworth this year and despite the criticism of the concept, it is great to see country rugby league given some focus. Perhaps it would be a greater initiative if NRL games were taken out once or twice a year. Whether or not this game holds much credibility in the mind of coach, Laurie Daley, is another thing altogether; regardless these players are taking the field proud of their representative achievement. The Country team looks stronger on papers, with a more capable mix of players that boast NRL experience. City coach, Brad Fittler, has obviously chosen several younger players with some apparent selections pulling out with injury. They still have a strong set of forwards in their pack and they will need to ensure that they take the game to their opponents here. Traditionally, these clashes have been tight, with players executing with greater care with the chance to capture a NSW jersey fresh in their minds. Whether or not there is much interest in this game should be an after thought because after all, there is money to be won on this match!
Teams
Country = 1. J. Wighton 2. K. Linnett 3. E. Aitken 4. J. Crocker 5. I. Yeo 6. J. Maloney 7. J. Bird 8. S. Boyd 9. R. Kostjasyn 10. J. de Belin 11. T. Frizell 12. B. Cordner 13. D. Finucane Interchange = 14. J. McLean 15. P. Vaughan 16. T. Sims 17. M. Aubusson
City = 1. C. Gutherson 2. D. Nofoaluma 3. A. Gray 4. R. Matterson 5. J. Mansour 6. A. Sezer 7. C. Townsend 8. R. Campbell-Gillard 9. N. Peats 10. L. Latu 11. C. Lawrence 12. B. Cartwright 13. N. Brown Interchange = 14. A. Fonua-Blake 15. T. Peachey 16. C. Sironen 17. K. Lovett 18. T. Symonds
Verdict
This game appears as though it will be dominated by the Country team for the entire 80 minutes. There are players within the City team that do not have the same level of experience as their opponents and this will be evident by the end of the match. The Country team have a stronger pack of forwards too that will be well support by some large and powerful players off the bench and it is uncertain whether or not their opponents will be able to match this same level throughout the game. As for the margin, the average over the past 10 matches has been 9.3 points, with two of those games being a draw. Generally speaking, the players are nervous about making mistakes on both sides of the ball so they tend to lose their flair. Either way, you can expect a closer margin then the quality of the two sides is suggesting and the Country boys should salute at the end of 80 minutes.
Suggested bet
Country 1-12
Good luck!
Scooby
