Roosters (3rd) v Rabbitohs (2nd)
Two traditional rivals face one another in a game that could decide home ground advantage in Week 1 of the Finals. The Roosters were impressive last week against the Storm, with their halves controlling the match and using the room generated by their forwards to their advantage. Losing Jake Friend will prove problematic, but with a bit of luck they could have him back sooner rather than later. The Rabbitohs have problems of their own, without a halfback but boosted by the return of their captain, John Sutton. These two teams appear to be evenly matched, although neither is yet to assert their dominance on the competition. They are a cut above most other teams and it will be intriguing viewing watching them battle out this match. The two pack of forwards that they possess alone could determine the result of this match.
Team News
Roosters = Mitchell Aubusson is named to replace Jake Friend at hooker, with Heath L’Estrange joing the bench. Sam Moa and Dylan Napa switch starting and bench roles, as Remi Casty is named in jersey 17.
Rabbitohs = John Sutton returns at 5/8 and Luke Keary moves to halfback with Adam Reynolds out.
History
Overall = Roosters 94 Draw 5 Rabbitohs 109
Last 5 matches = Roosters 2 Rabbitohs 3
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 21 Rabbitohs 12
Verdict
The loss of Friend is a major setback for the Roosters; his contribution on both sides of the ball is going to be sorely missed and hard to match. A lot of the room that is created for the halves is created by him and the big Rabbitohs forwards will take advantage of his absence and attempt to dominate in the middle of the field. This gives them a slight advantage and with the uncertainty around the performance of the Roosters halves without their hooker leaves a lot more uncertainty as opposed to the omission of Adam Reynolds. If anything, the Rabbitohs 6th tackle options may be improved to some extent. The area of judgement is a little clouded; therefore the best option in a contest of this nature is to stick with a close contest, which should be by less than a converted try. For what it is worth, if I had to make a selection, I would lean towards the Rabbitohs but only because the Roosters are without their hooker.
Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.70
Storm (6th) v Broncos (8th)
In an interesting scenario, the loser of this match could miss out on the Finals altogether if results go against them. The Storm missed an opportunity last week to avoid this situation, with a loss to the Roosters in trying circumstances. No matter what they created, their opponent’s defense hung tight and place increasing pressure on the Melbourne team. The Broncos fought hard to keep their hopes alive with a win over the Dragons, but even that result was close to going against them. A dubious decision by the referee cost them several points and the Dragons were finishing the match strongly. Ben Hunt was a standout performer again, however that match in front of their home fans will be remarkably different to the atmosphere in Melbourne. The Storm have won the past 9/10 matches against the Broncos but intriguingly, the last win to the visitors was at AAMI Park in 2010.
Team News
Storm = Ryan Hinchcliffe is named to start and Jordan McLean moves back to the bench. Justin O’Neill and Junior Moors are added to an extended bench.
Broncos = they were unchanged, but Sam Thaiday has been suspended and Todd Lowrie comes into the team to replace him.
History
Overall = Storm 23 Draw 1 Broncos 11
Last 5 matches = Storm 5 Broncos 0
At AAMI Park = Storm 3 Broncos 1
Verdict
The Broncos are going to sorely miss the contribution of Sam Thaiday; it is less firepower they have in attack, as well as a leader on the field. The Storm will aim to capitalise on this and their match with the Roosters demonstrates that they are better than most other teams in the competition. The “Big 3” will have a large contribution to the outcome of this match and with their potential challenged last week, they will want to create positive form prior to the Finals. That is not to suggest that the Broncos are not in with a shot of winning this match. They are, but their recent record against the Storm, coupled with their performance at AAMI Park is working against them. When they have lost, 72% of those have been by 1-12 and this match appears to be heading the same way.
Suggested Bet
Storm 1-12 @ $3
He’s the man! = Mariaka Korobiete FTTS @ $6 – Out of the past 6 matches, Korobiete has scored the first try for the Storm 4 times. The odds on offer here are too good to refuse and a 66% strike rate suggests that he is going to again create a strong case for himself.
Tigers (13th) v Sharks (16th)
At the conclusion of this match, both teams will sound a huge sigh of relief. They have struggled in recent weeks, as off-field issues have compounded their problems. The Tigers travelled down to Canberra last week, where they were handed their 6-straight loss and their 8th in the past 10 matches. For the Sharks, they were agonizingly close to breaking their run of losses, only to go down in golden point on the road to the Cowboys. It was a match that they were not even expected to get close to their opponents, but in a surprise to almost everyone, they pushed the home team to the limits. If anything, they will take confidence away from the fact that there is a strong amount of junior talent coming through their ranks. Although there is little to play for, both teams will want to finish the season off on the right note and change the attitude that they carry into the offseason which will be sooner rather than later for these two clubs.
Team News
Tigers = Corey Paterson returns on the bench for Brenden Santi.
Sharks = Michael LIchaa and Tinirau Arona have been named to play, pushing Pat Politoni and Junior Roqica back to the bench.
History
Overall = Tigers 16 Draw 1 Sharks 7
Last 5 matches = Tigers 3 Sharks 2
At Leichhardt Oval = Tigers 4 Sharks 2
Verdict
The Tigers had some positive passages in their last performance against the Raiders, suggesting that their youngsters are only going to be stronger with increasing confidence. The Sharks have to contend with a very short turn around from MNF on top of a trip to Townsville. That match would’ve taken a lot out of them and was perhaps the last strong effort they had in them this season. On the road again and with little to play for, they may just set the scene for the Tigers youngsters to run up a rather large score. Nevertheless, they are capable of turning out a resolute performance when they want to. Despite that, they average a margin of 15.4 in their past losses and at this stage, that is too large to overlook.
Suggested Bet
Tigers 13+ @ $2.45
Raiders (15th) v Eels (10th)
The Eels missed a golden opportunity to capture a place in the Finals last week after losing to the Knights on the road. Just when the hype was growing following positive performances, reality set in and we were reminded of how poor they can be. It puts into perspective their recent efforts and now they must win this match on the road against a team they beat 4-weeks ago. It may just be a tough task facing Raiders team that is full of confidence after consecutive victories. It is too little too late for them but they will be aiming to salvage any pride possible out of their remaining matches. However winning will make the club a happier place in the off-season when they are trying to change the attitude.
Team News
Raiders = Brett White is named in the starting team, forcing Dane Tilse back to the bench.
Eels = Unchanged, although Ben Smith has been suspended and a replacement for him is yet to be named.
History
Overall = Raiders 24 Eels 25
Last 5 matches = Raiders 4 Eels 1
At GIO Stadium = Raiders 13 Eels 4
Verdict
The Raiders went horribly close to beating the Eels when conditions were against them in Round 22 and this time, they will have things working in their favour. Their confidence will be increased by their performance in the last 2-weeks, while the Eels also have a point to prove after their loss to the Knights. Their season hangs in the balance and with that in mind, you would think that they would be able to rise to another level. The form line suggests that they are capable of doing that, but rugby league is a funny game sometimes. Although the odds are leaning in their direction, the Eels are not over the line and will find it hard to win. If anything, I would tip the upset, especially with Ricky Stuart relishing the chance to knock his former club out of the Finals. However although there is value there, the safer option is investing on a close contest.
Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 @ $3.40
Parting present = Anthony Milford FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – He has scored last twice in the past 3 matches and playing at 5/8 only brings him closer to the ball. This match will be his in Raiders colours and he will want to finish off the match on the right note.
Cowboys (5th) v Sea Eagles (1st)
After narrowly escaping an embarrassing loss in MNF against the Sharks, the Cowboys have a short turn around against the competition leaders. They too were also lucky in their victory, with both teams firmly focused on their chances deep into September. A trip north to Townsville will reduce their preparation time, something that is only made increasingly difficult with their mounting injury toll. For the Cowboys, they will want to put that match behind them and increase their chances of making the Top 4 with a win. The Sea Eagles will not want to give this match up easily though and despite it not possible for them to finish any worse than second, they are one club that could use the boost of money that the Minor Premiership offers. A dominant recent record over their opponents will be on their mind also as this match will be a preview of what is to come in the following weeks during the Finals.
Team News
Cowboys = Unchanged.
Sea Eagles = Brenton Lawrence returns to the front row, while Jason King moves back to the bench. Tom Symonds starts at lock and Justin Horo is into the starting side at second row. Hooker Matt Ballin has also suffered a season ending injury and will be out of this match, his replacement is yet to be named.
History
Overall = Cowboys 7 Sea Eagles 15
Last 5 matches = Cowboys 0 Sea Eagles 5
At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 5 Sea Eagles 6
Verdict
There is everything to play for in this match for both teams and despite a flat performance on Monday, the Cowboys are expected to lift to overcome the competition leaders. Surprisingly though, the Sea Eagles are outsiders, mainly due to the injuries that they have suffered in recent weeks and the traveling they have to make. Some people are even suggesting that they may rest a few players as home ground advantage is assured next week. Despite this, they still have key players like Brett Stewart, DCE and Foran leading their team around; and their presence alone suggest points are on offer. Forget their struggles against the Panthers; they are a quality team that sits within the Top 4 of the competition. Ballin’s omission sets them back further but the Cowboys need to demonstrate more over 80 minutes before I will take notice of them over a Top 4 team, regardless of where the match is played.
Suggested Bet
Sea Eagles +4.5 @ $1.90
Knights (12th) v Dragons (11th)
The Knights have climbed their way up the ladder with wins in the closing rounds, the most recent one against the Eels. It was an impressive performance that highlighted the strength that is coming through the club in the junior ranks. They remain at home this week and will want to put a disappointing year behind them with another win. The Dragons had their Finals hopes dashed last week by the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium. The scoreboard flattered the travelling team somewhat, as they were able to fight their way back into the match towards the end after a poor decision by the referee to sin-bin a Broncos player. That advantage was used well, but it was the deficit was too much to overcome. Like their opponents, the finish to the season has been pleasing and with 2015 coach Paul McGregor at the helm, they will also look to develop for coming seasons and finish the year off on the right note.
Team News
Knights = Travis Waddell is back on the bench, otherwise unchanged.
Dragons = Mike Cooper will start at prop and will partner Kyle Stanley at hooker. Shane Pumipi and Bronson Harrison have been added to an extended bench.
History
Overall = Knights 9 Dragons 19
Last 5 matches = Knights 1 Dragons 4
At Hunter Stadium = Knights 2 Dragons 13
Verdict
With the two teams playing for nothing more than pride, the recent form of the Knights suggests that they are the way to go. The Dragons will try to get one more victory over their former coach, but ultimately the home side will want to reward their home fans for their loyalty throughout the year with a win. There is a sense that they threw everything possible at the Broncos last week and will want a long season to come to a conclusion as soon as possible. The next part is settling on the margin. The Knights demonstrated last week they can run up a tally of points when they are in the right frame of mind. With this in mind, the Knights have won 44% of matches by 13+, while the Dragons have lost 50% by the same margin.
Suggested Bet
Knights -4.5 @ $1.90
Brothers Grim = Sione Mata’utia FTS @ $8 and/or Chanel Mata’utia LTS @ $9 – In the past 3 matches, Sione has crossed the line first for the Knights twice. There is no reason why he cannot do that again, however more inritugingly, in those same matches, his brother Chanel has scored the last try. Something worth considering, especially if live betting is available.
Titans (14th) v Bulldogs (7th)
Failing to score a point last week, the Titans were embarrassed on the road against the Warriors. Their performance have dramatically declined in the second half of the season, as player availabilities have made it difficult to match their strong start to the year. As they fall down the table, they are playing for pride, while the Bulldogs are aiming to cement their spot in the Finals. Following 2-consecutive victories, the Rabbitohs beat them last week in a match that was there for the taking. Unable to put their opponents away, they will be boosted by the return of Josh Reynolds and this will add another dimention to the Bulldogs attack. They will have plenty of time from last Thursday to prepare for this match and anything but a victory for the travelling team is difficult to foresee.
Team News
Titans = Dave Taylor and Luke Bailey have both been named to return from injury. Greg Bird is out via suspension.
Bulldogs = Josh Reynolds is back at 5/8 after a 3-match suspension. Moses Mbye moves back to the interchange.
History
Overall = Titans 5 Bulldogs 5
Last 5 matches = Titans 3 Bulldogs 2
At Cbus Super Stadium = Titans 2 Bulldogs 1
Verdict
The Titans have had a terrible past few weeks and it doesn’t appear to get any easier with this match. On top of a tough match, they also have a host of injuries and need time to recover following their trip to New Zealand. The Bulldogs are a team that is slowly getting back to their best and despite a recent loss to the Rabbitohs, they will be boosted by the return on their 5/8. Expect Des Hasler to have his team ready to fire in this match. A weaker opponent for them at this stage of the season is perfect, as it should play them into form and allow them to build confidence in their attacking and defensive structures.
Suggested Bet
Bulldogs -10.5 @ $2
Panthers (4th) v Warriors (9th)
Penrith were agonisingly close to creating a major upset last week over the first-place Sea Eagles at Brookvale Oval, only for a miracle try to beat them. It will not deter the Panthers though, they will use that match to their advantage and draw the positives away from that effort. Each time people write them off, they appear to brush that aside and prove people wrong. They are now aiming to hold onto a spot in the Top 4 that would mean a greater chance of winning the Premiership and a second-chance in the Finals. The Warriors are just hoping to claim a spot there, improving their point’s difference last week over the Titans to increase their likelihood. They will have the added advantage of knowing the results of every other match in Round 26 and know what is needed over the 80 minutes. That is sure to make this match a great way to conclude the regular season!
Team News
Panthers = James Segeyaro has been named to return at hooker and Kierran Moseley moves back to the bench. Sika Manu will start at lock and Lewis Brown is into the start side in the second row.
Warriors = Feleti Mateo is named as 18th man.
History
Overall = Panthers 17 Draw 1 Warriors 15
Last 5 matches = Panthers 3 Warriors 2
At Sportingbet Stadium = Panthers 8 Draw 1 Warriors 7
Verdict
The picture of just how this match will play out will be a lot clearer approaching KO, because both teams will know what is required of them to determine the make up of the Finals. The Panthers will be confident following their narrow loss to the Sea Eagles, but that effort took a lot out of their system. The Warriors will be buoyed by the fact that a win here will extend their season for another week. Winning becomes a habit at this stage of the year and without writing the Panthers off, they will need a few things to go their way to outmuscle their opponents. It will be a close match though, with the Warriors demonstrating several times this season that they never like to do things the easy way and Panthers coach has a good understanding of the fragilities of the team he once lead.
Suggested Bet
Warriors 1-12 @ $3.25
Good luck!
Scooby
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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