Finally, the NRL season is coming to an end. It has yet again been one that has been action packed with both on and off field issues; yet regardless of the bad publicity, the game has continued to grow stronger. It is somewhat sad when this time is upon us, as it means a reduction in the amount of games each weekend however the quality and intensity of each game is increased. Finals football is always an exciting prospect and this season is not going to be any different. Amazingly, there are still 5 teams vying for the remaining two places in the Top 8. Sides like the Cowboys, Panthers and Titans seemed to be dead and buried but have somehow managed to keep their aspirations afloat. While that can be attributed mainly to their own achievements, it is also the inability of the other teams to grab a win when it has mattered most. Elsewhere, the minor Premiership looks headed to the Rabbitohs, their first since 1989. They will not want to have that memory brought back up though because in that season they lost their first two Finals games and were bundled out of the competition without a second thought. This is the business end of the season and it is time for the contenders to take a stand. Every moment matters and despite some sides out of the race, they have the opportunity to have a say on what happens and finish a disappointing season off on the right foot. It is going to be interesting to watch and there will be excitement aplenty.

 Brisbane Broncos v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Thursday night football returns for the final time this season and it will open Round 26 of the competition, just like it did to start the season. This timeslot may be something that the NRL will experiment further into next season but there are plenty of people out there that enjoy the early start to each round. As for this contest, there will be no love lost between the two sides despite the Broncos destined for an early finish to the season. A lot of that will revolve around the impending departure of Ben Barba to the Queensland club after being granted a release from his contract on compassionate grounds. There is more to meets the eye with this issue and the recent light of Barba’s plight at the start of the season seems to have been released just at the right time for the Bulldogs. As it stands, he has apparently returned to training but whether or not he takes the field again this season remains to be seen. It does add extra spice to the contest; however the predicament that the Broncos find themselves in will hardly mean much to the overall scheme of this game. They are out of contention and their season can only be described as disappointing. It is confusing to think that their coach Anthony Griffin is still in his job and others like Neil Henry have been sacked, despite the Cowboys being a chance to make the Finals. Not a lot has gone according to plan for them, coming to a forefront last weekend with a loss to the Knights. It was a must win game and they were unable to produce a commanding performance. The offseason will be a long one for them and it will be interesting to see if there are any major changes within this organisation. Over at Canterbury, they are assured of a spot in the Top 8, it will just come down to what position that will be. At this stage, they are in 5^th spot and the only thing a loss will affect will be the team that they face in Week 1. Then again, that will be out of their control to some extent as other sides are still unsure of their own fate. Above all else, the Bulldogs will be desperate to carry as much momentum into the Finals series as possible. If they get back to their best form, they will be a team that the top sides will want to steer clear of. They have a lot of work to get back to that level but be sure that their coach Des Hasler will stop at nothing to get the best out of his team. Last week against the Panthers, they were always control of the game but were not without a scare. Eventually, they rolled over the top of their opponents and recorded a solid victory. It will be interesting to see if they are able to go on with that or maybe the Broncos will try to finish the season off on the right note. Enjoy the early start to the weekend and a chance to build up your balance before a big weekend of NRL takes place.

Brisbane Broncos

With little to play for, the Broncos have chosen to name the same team as last week. This is right down to the bench, where Scott Anderson has been named as 18^th man. It will be some kind of celebration for the Broncos as Scott Prince plays his 300^th NRL game. Despite my criticism of him, overall his career can be considered successful. Like many other teams this season, it is a surprise that a shake up within this side has not come earlier. Then again, Griffin has changed the halves and dropped the departing Corey Norman from fullback earlier in the year. Regardless, plenty of players within their team can consider themselves lucky to have lasted this long. The first that would come to mind would be some of their “representative stars” that feature in their forwards. It is a tried and tested formula and they have failed to stick by this. Their missed tackle stats are too high and they are failing to make many metres when they have the ball. Then again plenty of questions should also be asked of their creativity.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

In some fantastic news for the Bulldogs this week, they are able to welcome back Sam Kasiano to their roster. He will start on the bench for this match and his inclusion of the side has forced Lachlan Burr back to the bench. He is a great asset to this side and his presence on the field appears to lift the Bulldogs. It may take him a few weeks to regain his match fitness but his minutes will be limited to reduce immediate fatigue. Elsewhere, things remain the same for the Bulldogs and it was pleasing to finally see Tony Williams play to his potential. It has been a long time coming for him and his damaging performance against the Panthers may just give hope that he has returned to the player that was once selected for the Kangaroos. Perhaps he is trying to book himself a spot on the plane to the RLWC at the seasons end.

Recent History

Overall = Broncos 23 Draw 1 Bulldogs 19

Last 5 games = Broncos 1 Bulldogs 4

At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 3 Bulldogs 7

Stats that matter

• Both sides have struggled in the forwards this season and it shows in their rankings in metres per carry. The Bulldogs are the worst in the competition when it comes to this, making just 8.62m each run. Just ahead of them, the Broncos are 15^th overall with 8.69m per carry.
• The missed tackles from the Broncos each week is making it very difficult for them to stick with their opponents throughout a match. They miss an average of 32.1 tackles per game (16^th) and this has lead to them conceding 20.3 points each week (9^th). As for the Bulldogs, they concede just 19.6 points (8^th) but miss just 23.2 tackles per game (2^nd).
• It is no secret that the Broncos have struggled to score points this season. They average just 18.2 per game (12^th) and will have to provide something special to outscore the Bulldogs, who average 22.3 points each week (5^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Broncos $2.85 Bulldogs $1.45

Centrebet = Broncos $2.70 Bulldogs $1.48

Sportsbet = Broncos $2.75 Bulldogs $1.47

Betfair = Broncos $2.92 Bulldogs $1.51

Verdict

Just because it is the last round this weekend does not mean that selections are going to get any easier. Thursday night throws us a curve ball to start the week off and I can already hear a few people being confused with my statement. Well you have to look at the possible outcomes for the rest of the round and it would be wrong to think that the Sharks and Bulldogs are not focusing on possible opponents for Week 1 of the Finals. As it stands, they would be facing the Cowboys and there are several possible outcomes with potential losses and wins. A loss for the Bulldogs would not alter the outcome too much and you would think that they would fancy their chances against any opponent they face. So what does this game mean to them? I think that we will have an indication of that once the teams are named for this game 1-hour before KO. Make sure that you stay updated with my twitter feed because it is very important in determining which way I will go in this contest. If the Bulldogs are at full-strength, I fancy them to get the win, albeit under close circumstances. Nonetheless, if they choose to rest a few players, then I will lean towards taking the home team. The Broncos will not be afraid to throw caution into the wind and along with playing in front of their home fans; they could be very difficult to get past. They will want to finish the season off on the right note and their representative players will want to push their case for a spot in the Kangaroos team for the RLWC. However above all else, the Bulldogs should be aiming to win this game and carry as much momentum into this game as possible. They flexed their muscles last week to some extent last week (W34-12) and that was against the Panthers, a side that the Broncos only managed to score 12 points against in Round 24. With that in mind, this game may be a bridge too far for the lackluster Broncos team to reach.

Suggested Bet

Bulldogs -6.5 @ $1.92

Winning with this margin = Bulldogs 7-12 @ $5.50 – This match should be fairly tight throughout given how little the Broncos have to pay for. With one eye on next week, the Bulldogs will also be wary of what they have to do to just win this game and avoid injury to any players. All signs point to this option and the odds on offer are very enticing.

Laughing with Lafai = Tim Lafai FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – Lafai’s form in recent weeks is improving as he gets more time at this level. This week, he will be up against Alex Glenn and his speed should be too must for this makeshift second rower. He is solid, but defending against a player with Lafai’s ability will test Glenn’s defensive ability throughout this contest.

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Sydney Roosters

Forget the race for the remaining spots in the Top 8, fans of both the Roosters and Rabbitohs will tell you how much this game means to them. Then again, they will also be quick to mention that they would rather with the overall Premiership, if it meant sacrificing the J.J. Giltinan Shield. Friday night action will be reduced to just one game but it is going to be a blockbuster event. The Roosters seemed to have this all but wrapped up a few weeks ago before they played the Sharks. Since then, they have been on a 2-game losing streak and only recorded their 6^th loss of the season against the Titans. Many thought they were going to bounce back from their MNF loss at Cronulla and given their performance this season, that was expected. Disappointingly, a team that was desperate to keep their season alive outplayed them. Having occurred in consecutive weeks, many are now suggesting that they are falling to pieces. The Rabbitohs experienced exactly the same thing this season, albeit a little earlier than the Roosters. During that slump, their credentials were questioned, just like the Roosters are now. Luckily, they were able to pull things back together and they have a chance to write their name into the record books. The Roosters will be aiming to do the same and there is no better way to suggest they are back in form than a win over the competition leaders. Such a feat will steal the minor title off their bitter rivals and have the Bondi-boys etched onto the shield. The Rabbitohs will have to turn out a better performance than they did last week against the Tigers if they want to hold off their opponents. They were very slow to start that game but eventually recorded a win. It was not an effort that excited many of their fans and perhaps we saw just how vulnerable they can be when an opponent forces them to play from behind. The Tigers were gallant in the opening minutes and the “rest” given to Sam Burgess helped their cause. It looked like the Rabbitohs players received one almighty spray from their coach at halftime and they came out in the second half and delivered just as a great team should. Still, they will be hoping that they can take the field and put the Roosters to the sword, while recording their second win over them this season. It’s as if the Finals are starting a week early with this match and the intensity to which this game is played at is only a sign of things to come.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Not everything went to plan for the Rabbitohs last week, but they have chosen to name the same team that featured in that game. Jason Clark (18^th) and Matt King (19^th) have been added to the bench but as in recent weeks, it appears likely that they will miss out on selection. There was a lot made about the 4 Burgess brothers featuring together on the field last week, almost to the point where you were hoping it happened just so the talk about it could stop. However once it did happen, it was a great sight to see and they dominated the minimal part of the game that they could. Regardless, they will rely on the key players within their side to assert their dominance over their opponents throughout. Issac Luke was fantastic in the revitalization of his side during the game and is going to be crucial to the success of this team for the rest of the team.

Sydney Roosters

The Roosters have been forced to make a few changes this week and it is not ideal to have this at the business end of the season. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has suffered an injury and will be out for an indefinite period of time. This has forced a reshuffle in the backline and Shaun Kenny-Dowall has been moved to RTS’s position of winger. Mitchell Aubusson is the new face in the centres, a position that is not new to him. He moves from the forwards and Aidan Guerra fills the vacant second row position, earning a promotion from the bench. This has allowed Tinirau Arona to be recalled to the team and he will look to add impact once on the field. The Roosters forwards stocks look to be a little stretched at present, most notably in the front row. This is something that they will need to address and they may need a few extra minutes out of those forwards starting the match.

Recent History

Overall = Rabbitohs 108 Draw 5 Roosters 93

Last 5 games = Rabbitohs 3 Roosters 2

At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 2 Roosters 5

Stats that matter

• It was a very uncharacteristic display from the Roosters last week. They had a 69.77% completion rate (73.2% for the season), made 16 errors (10.5 for the season) and missed 30 tackles in defence (21.4 for the season).
• It should be a great battle in the forwards this week as two very talented packs go head to head. The Roosters appear to have the edge over their opponents, in averaging 9.17m per carry of the ball (1^st) while the Rabbitohs make 9.09m (3^rd).
• The Rabbitohs may have to do something special to score a few points past their opponents. Despite the past two weeks where they have had over 30 points scored against them, the Roosters still concede an average of 13.6 points per game (1^st). In the same stat, the Rabbitohs allow 15.7 points (4^th) and must tighten up in this area if they are hoping to grab a win.

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.52 Roosters $2.60

Centrebet = Rabbitohs $1.55 Roosters $2.50

Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.50 Roosters $2.65

Betfair = Rabbitohs $1.54 Roosters $2.68

Verdict

There is a lot riding on this contest and while each team is trying to play it down, the magnitude of the match is not going to get past the fans. It is a little surprising to see the difference that has emerged between the two sides in the odds, but then again that is probably reflective of the recent form of the Roosters. Be very wary though, a strong team in this competition rarely loses 3-matches on the trot. If they were to do so, it would be the worst possible end to the season for the once dominant, premiership favorites. When comparing the two sides, I still believe that the Roosters are fragile on the bench. The players they have there at their disposal is hardly going to be able to match it with the Rabbitohs and this may be the difference at the end of the day. You also have to remember that the Roosters have several players missing from this game. It will be a very tight contest though, with the rivalry and hatred between these two sides keeping the game very close. A 1-12 victory seems suitable and in this game, I am going to have to go with the Rabbitohs to get the win and secure the minor Premiership.

Suggested Bet

Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.80

Left side success = Nathan Merritt FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – The Roosters have been forced to reshuffle their side in a major way this week and they now have SKD and Aubusson on their right edge. This will be an area that the Rabbitohs will look to expose and expect plenty of traffic to head this way throughout the match. On the end of those plays, Nathan Merritt should be in prime position to put the icing on the cake.

Drawing conclusions = Draw/Rabbitohs (HT/FT Double) @ $13 – Such is the importance of this match, both sides could very well head into the half locked up. In tipping the Rabbitohs to prevail, the value around this bet is very enticing to say the least. Also keep in mind Roosters/Rabbitohs @ $6.50 as the Roosters will be out to rectify their efforts in their last two games.

St George-Illawarra Dragons v New Zealand Warriors

Now, let the race for the remaining spots in the Top 8 begin! The Warriors get first crack of making the most of their chance and they will have to travel across to Wollongong to try to keep their aspirations alive. Unfortunately, it is almost out of their control and the only thing that they can affect at this point is their own performance. The loss that they suffered a few weeks ago to the Panthers perhaps is where their chances took the biggest hit because if they ‘d won that match, they would only need to win to assure their place next week. That is not the case though and after a strong display last week against the Raiders, they will look to give themselves every chance with a win over the Dragons. It has been a difficult season for the Warriors but in saying that, they only have themselves to blame. It took them a while to “click into gear” and once they found their feet, they have proved difficult to handle. As for the Dragons, things got a whole lot worse for them last week with a loss to the Eels. They appeared to be on the right track early on in that game but crucial errors and a continued lack of creativity in attack hampered their chances. It was clear that at the conclusion of that game,  their players and coaching staff were looking forward to the season ending. They have not enjoyed the same success that they have had in recent years and the pressure on their coach Steve Price at this stage is immense. With plenty of suitable coaches out on the market, many have suggested that it is time for the Dragons and Price to part ways. The same questions were asked of the Warriors coach Matthew Elliot earlier on in the season but they were put to bed with consecutive wins. It is amazing the effect that winning can have on a club and the Dragons should keep this in mind when they run out here. A win could set them in good stead for what will be a very long off-season but a desperate Warriors team is standing in their way. They will know what has to be done to achieve a victory and while most teams would limit their flair, the Warriors will aim to use that to their advantage. 3pm is an early start to Super Saturday but with each game meaning so much, it will be fantastic viewing to say the least. If you’re up to it, action will start earlier with the lower grade games and it will ensure that Saturday is as action packed as ever.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

With one game left in their season, the Dragons have chosen to go with the same team that was beaten by the Eels. Then again, this may be the result of the team having to be submitted before they have a chance to completely assess the fitness of their squad. Will Matthews has been added to the bench and his inclusion suggests that there may be a few players that are in doubt for this game. Despite the disappointing season that the Dragons have experience, their fans should relish the chance to farewell Nathan Fien and Michael Weyman from their organization. While they are not experiencing their best season, they have been good servants for the club and were two players that featured in their 2010 Premiership winning team. It will also be a chance for their fans to farewell Matt Cooper, although he will have to watch this game from the sideline due to injury. With their performances this season being so disappointing, this could be the one positive to come out of this game for them and their fans.

New Zealand Warriors

With everything on the line, the Warriors will be hoping that everything goes according to plan on the field. This week, Dane Nielsen has been named to make his return from an ankle injury. He was named in the centres last week but he was a late withdrawal from their team. His inclusion has forced Ngani Laumape back to 18^th man and 19th man Sio Siua Taukeiaho will join him this week. This move has also cause Jerome Ropati to move back to the wing. The Warriors were at their dominant best last week and full credit has to go to several players within their side. It was a great team effort and they are more than aware that all they can control at the moment is their own performance. It has been interesting to also note the change in form from Feleti Mateo since moving to the bench. His impact once the initial stages of the game have settled has been tremendous and he is proving very difficult for opposition sides to handle. On top of that, the flair within the side is dynamic and Shaun Johnson is getting better each week, while also maturing as a playmaker.

Recent History

Overall = Dragons 15 Warriors 4

Last 5 games = Dragons 5 Warriors 0

At WIN Stadium = Dragons 9 Warriors 0

Stats that matter

• Proving just how much the Dragons have lacked in attack, they are ranked 14^th for line breaks with just 3.5 per game. This has undoubtedly lead to their poor point scoring efforts and they only average 15.7 each week (15^th). On the other hand, the Warriors average 4.8 line breaks per game (5^th) and have faired a little better with an average of 21.1 points scored each week (6^th).
• The Dragons missed tackle stats are surprising given their standing on the table. They are ranked 4^th in this area, missing around 25.5 tackles per game, while the Warriors are ranked in 11^th with 29.9 tackles missed.
• Given how loose they can be with the football, the Warriors are tightening up their error rate. They average 11 per game (10^th) for the season and while it is still high, their poor start to the season is to blame somewhat. In their last 5 victories, they have average just 8.6 errors. For the Dragons, their season average isn’t ideal and are ranked in =14^th with 11.6 per game

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Dragons $4.00 Warriors $1.26

Centrebet = Dragons $3.80 Warriors $1.28

Sportsbet = Dragons $4.00 Warriors $1.26

Betfair = Dragons $3.70 Warriors $1.34

Verdict

Given the relative standing on the table and with what both teams have to play for, you would think that the history between the two sides would matter little. However take a look at it and it’s not something that you can just move past easily. The Dragons have been somewhat of a bogey team for the Warriors but I believe that this is all about to change. The Dragons have been extremely disappointing in their last two efforts and it is very hard to like a team that has lost to the Tigers and Eels in consecutive weeks. They may put in a competitive effort early, yet eventually the Warriors should be too strong. They have a bigger pack of forwards and are playing with a lot more to lose than the Dragons. As for the winning margin, if the Warriors get out to a sizable lead, they may just run away with this game. The Dragons have a solid defensive unit and it may force the Warriors to be a little more careful with the ball. Then again, the Warriors “careful” is a lot different to most. Their points difference may also become an impacting factor on whether or not they make the Finals and currently have -50 isn’t ideal. This is another reason why I believe that the Warriors will be motivated to run up a big score against their opponents.

Suggested Bet

Warriors -11.5 @ $1.90

Scoring for the difference = Warriors 19+ @ $2.75 – It is stated above in the “Verdict”, the Warriors need points. They do not want to get into a position where they miss out on the Finals because of this. The Dragons have hardly set the world alight with their defence recently either and have leaked points at crucial stages.

Go to the Beast = Manu Vatuvei FTS and/or LTS @ $6 – Did you even have to ask? Big Manu returned to the try scoring ranks last week with a bang, grabbing a damaging hat trick. Given the opposing players on the edge in this match will be Chase Stanely and Daniel Vidot, the Warriors will want to direct plenty of traffic and these two weaker opponents.

Melbourne Storm v Gold Coast Titans

Now that the Warriors game is done, we can progress onto the next game, which will have a bearing on the race towards the Finals. The Titans looked dead and buried heading into last week but it was a fantastic performance that has kept them alive for another week. No one expected it from them and considering they were playing the competition leaders, who were themselves coming off a loss, they were given little chance of winning. To make matters worse, they had key personnel withdraw late and they were struggling to field a side at one point. Regardless, they turned out a complete performance that shut the Roosters out of the game. They kept coming in that match and while allowing their opponents to score 22 points, they were able to get over the top of them late and win 30-22. If that wasn’t tough enough, they must now head down to Melbourne and win just to keep themselves alive for another week. Just like the Roosters last week, the Storm head into this game off a loss and will be looking at a shot at redemption. It was a disappointing performance from them last week against bitter rivals, the Sea Eagles, as they were outplayed in every area of the game. Full credit must go to their opponents and the 28-8 final score does indicated how dominant they were. The Storm left that match with their tails between their legs and they will be egger to bounce back here. They only have a week to get it right too because in the Week 1 of the Finals, they will be facing a fellow Top 4 performance. They have the quality within their team but sometimes their attack can become predicable. In saying that, they have played strongly all season and you should not jump off them after one loss on the road. You can put that down to a minor blip on the radar and returning home will offer them the chance to return to the winner’s circle. If not, they may have a tougher task of winning throughout the Finals and could find themselves out earlier than usual. They are too talented for that to happen and we should see what they are capable of in this match. The Titans surprised last week and with their season on the line, they may be able to do that same again here.

Melbourne Storm

Since they embarked on their winning streak, the Storm have maintain the same side. It is no different this week for them and the consistency within their team will help when it matters most. It’s as if the same thing is being said each week in regards to their team but really, there isn’t much else that needs to be said. Their forwards lay a solid platform in the middle of the field and allow Cronk and Smith to control the game. Their ruck speed is tough to slow down and just when their opponents think that they’re getting on top of them, they have Slater that adds another dimension to their backline play. There is news around that Gareth Widdop is aiming to make a return in the Queensland Cup. If this is the case, it is amazing considering that he only suffered a dislocated hip in late July. If he were to take his place in the side during the Finals, the Storm would undoubtedly grow another leg. Then again, it will take a few weeks for him to regain his match fitness but this could be offset by his early return in the lower grades.

Gold Coast Titans

The Titans will still be on a high following their victory over the Roosters and given all of the changes that were made to their side prior to KO, it was some feat. David Mead was a late withdrawal and Kevin Gordon, who moved from the wing, took his place at fullback. This opened a spot for Steve Michaels to come into the side and Jordan Atkins, who replaced Jamie Dowling, also joined him in the backs. Dowling still remained in the team though and will now have to bide his time before entering this game from the bench. They were in a spot of bother last week as they were unable to name 17 fit players but they have the luxury this week of naming Mark Ioane as 18^th man. He will probably miss out on selection but the ultimate make up of this team may come down to a few late fitness tests. Their forwards need to take control of the game and shut their opponents out of the game, just like they did last week.

Recent History

Overall = Storm 6 Titans 4

Last 5 games = Storm 4 Titans 1

At AAMI Stadium = Storm 2 Titans 0

Stats that matter

• It was an uncharacteristic performance from the Storm last week. They had a 63.4% completion rate (74.4% for the season), made 13 errors (10.4 for the season) and created just 3 line breaks (4.8 for the season).
• Just as the Storm were poor last week, the Titans lifted to another level. They improved dramatically on their averages this year and controlled the ball very well, having a 86.4% completion rate (71.9% for the season) and making just 10 errors (11.1 for the season).
• Expect the Storm to tighten up this week and limit their opponent’s points. They average 15.3 points conceded per game (3^rd) and are able to win plenty of games by scoring 24.6 (3^rd). The story is a little different for the Titans, they allow 21.6 per week (10^th) and are only able to score 20.8 points (7^th), making it difficult for them to outscore their opponents.

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.14 Titans $6.00

Centrebet = Storm $1.11 Titans $7.00

Sportsbet = Storm $1.13 Titans $6.25

Betfair = Storm $1.16 Titans $6.80

Verdict

All signs in this game point towards a Storm victory. They are coming off a disappointing performance last week and will be egger to bounce back to winning form. In saying that, the Titans will know what winning this game could possibly hold in store for them beyond Round 26 and that is sure to give them extra motivation. They have surprised sides above them in the last two weeks and have proven themselves more than capable. Just like several other games this weekend, certain clubs may select their team around other performances and they may choose to rest a few players. If they do, this game will play right into the Titans hands and their chances of winning this match will be increased. However if the Storm are at full-strength, they should be too strong for their opponents. Returning home will only enhance their chances of success and it would be surprising to see the rest key members of their squad. They need to regroup after last week and carry as much momentum as possible into Week 1 of the Finals. As for the margin, I think it will be fairly close and the Titans will give themselves every chance of finishing the season on the right foot.

Suggested Bet

Storm 1-12 @ $3.75

More for a margin = Storm 7-12 @ $6.50 – The Storm should win this match but it may be a little closer than most think. If you want a little more value with your bet, then consider taking this option. This means that they should be able to win by more than a converted try.

Blair to dream = Maurice Blair FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Blair has experienced a great run of form this season and his chance of scoring first or last in this game are high. The Storm like to go towards their left edge more than most and expect plenty of traffic to head this way.

North Queensland Cowboys v Wests Tigers

The concluding game on Super Saturday heads up north to Townsville as the Cowboys host the Wests Tigers. We will have a better understanding of what is on the line heading into this match as earlier games will be done and dusted. With that in mind, the overall outcome of this game could be very important to other sides in the league. The Cowboys are on a fantastic run lately, creeping into the Top 8 last week with a win over the Sharks. It was an impressive display that took their winning streak to 5 games and they are currently one of the form sides. I was one person that wrote them and the Finals chances off following their loss to the Broncos but they have kept fighting. Full credit must go to them but I cannot forget how poor they were earlier in the year just yet. They were just a tad better than their opponents in this match but the main difference is the existing form of both sides. The Tigers are holding out for the end of the season and once the whistle goes, there will be a lot of relief and they can finally put this year behind them. There will be a whole host of other emotions though as Benji Marshall is playing his last game for the club. Last week we got a small taste of what he still has to offer but his heart still appears to be elsewhere. The rest of the Tigers team will want to send him out on the right note and have a more positive feeling within the organization heading into the offseason. In saying that, it will take something special to grab a win here as the Cowboys look to farewell club stalwart Matt Bowen in his last home game. It is never easy to make the trip up to Townsville but perhaps the Tigers will be boosted with their performance against the Rabbitohs. They lead that match 18-nil but were unable to go on with the job. When their opponents eventually kicked into gear, they didn’t have the talent or confidence to go with them. Still, it was a better effort than we have seen from them this year. This game is not the Cowboys just yet and it should be exciting viewing to see just how they are able to win the match. If they are able to win, they will assure themselves of a place in Week 1 of the Finals and if that isn’t motivation, I don’t know what is.

North Queensland Cowboys

Given the impressive victory of the Cowboys last week, it was disappointing to see Matt Scott injured and in doubt for the rest of the season. He suffered a broken finger but has assured the fans that he will do everything possible to take his place in the team where possible. Scott Bolton has been named as his replacement in the front row, earning a promotion from the bench. This has also opened up the opportunity for Ashton Sims to come into the side, after being named as 18^th man last week. Everything is in front of them in this game and they need to make sure that they not only win, but also carry the momentum into next week. The Rory Kostjasyn-experiment at hooker seemed to work to some extent but this could still be an issue when the better teams choose to focus on it. More importantly, the pressure must be released on JT to ensure that he is being utilised to his full potential.

Wests Tigers

After celebrating several milestones last week, the Tigers have maintained relatively the same team for this contest. Suaso Sue has been named to take his place in the side in jersey 17, pushing Matt Bell to 18^th man. It was a shame that they were unable to grab a win but at the end of the day, they were unable to lift to another level when the Rabbitohs did. That has been the case for them all season and the little mistakes that they made ended up costing them several key moments of the match. The end of this game will conclude one of the worst seasons for this joint venture club. Many will be thankful that it was not much worse considering how poor their injury toll was. At the end of the day, they will be excited by a few of the younger prospects coming through the ranks while also saying goodbye to a few older and less talented members of this team. The sooner that happens, the better the Tigers will be and they can begin to rebuild and look forward to next season and beyond.

Recent History

Overall =Cowboys 12 Tigers 15

Last 5 games =Cowboys 1 Tigers 4

At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 9 Tigers 4

Stats that matter

• The Tigers have been their own worst enemy this season and they only average a completion rate of 70% (16^th). The Cowboys have improved in recent weeks and this has positively impacted upon their stats, they now have a completion rate for the season that sits at 72.5% (8^th).
• The Cowboys unpredictability is another strength and it is probably why they average 4.4 line breaks per game (=8^th), leading to an average of 20.0 points per game (9^th). As for the Tigers, they only average 3.6 line breaks (13^th) that has seen them struggling to score points, just an average of 15.8 per game (14^th).
• The Tigers leak too many points on defence and per game, they are allowing their opponents to score an average of 27.7 (15^th). The Cowboys are surprisingly ranked highly in this area, allowing just 17.8 each week (5^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.15 Tigers $5.75

Centrebet = Cowboys $1.13 Tigers $6.35

Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.15 Tigers $5.75

Betfair= Cowboys $1.16 Tigers $6.20

Verdict

Given how poorly the Tigers have played this season, it is very difficult to see them winning this contest. The Cowboys have not been the most attractive side either but their form at home has been solid and they are always a tough side to face in Townsville. Their recent form has rocketed them back into Finals calculations, and they can lock up a position next week with a win. The Tigers held their own in the opening half against the Rabbitohs but once their opponents clicked into gear, they were unable to match them. This may also be the case here and wary of what the Tigers are capable of, the Cowboys will not want to give them any breathing space. In saying that, if the Cowboys get ahead on the scoreboard, the Tigers may just shut off and allow their opponents to run away with the game. Considering this, I am leaning towards a dominant Cowboys display that makes life very difficult for the Tigers from start to finish.

Suggested Bet

Cowboys -15.5 @ $1.90

More points for more value = Cowboys +19 @ $2.25 – Presuming that the Cowboys keep their foot on the throttle for the entire match; they could have the chance to run up a large score. The Tigers will try to keep themselves in the game for as long as possible but it may get overwhelming in the end and the in-form Cowboys may get over the top of them.

Citizen Kane = Kane Linnett FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – Linnett has experienced several patches of form this season and there is little doubt that he will enjoy the chance to opening the scoring in this match. The Cowboys love attacking to their left edge and when he gets close enough to the line, he is very hard to stop.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles v Penrith Panthers

The final day of the regular season is upon us and to kick-start action; we take a trip out to Brookvale Oval. Due to the NRL restrictions around the location of Finals matches, this will be the last time that the Sea Eagles run out onto their nostalgic home ground. Whether or not you agree with the NRL’s regulations, you have to admit that playing the game at a bigger venue will allow more fans to view the game live. This week, there will be plenty of celebrations around the Sea Eagles fair welling a few of their club favorites. Brent Kite and George Rose will be departing at the end of the season and even if you do not like them, you can agree that they have been great servants to their club. Last week would’ve been a fitting send off for them, given how well the Sea Eagles played. It was even more pleasing that they were able to produce such a performance against their bitter rivals, the Storm, who are also potential Finals opponents. Many didn’t see that coming and full credit must go to how well they played. They are a team that is built on a strong foundation and they know how to win games when it counts. Their young halves have a lot to do with this and this may ultimately be the difference between the two sides in this match. The Panthers are mathematically a chance of the Finals, but a lot more than winning here will have to occur before that happens. As I have said throughout the season, no one expected them to reach these heights in a season where they were “rebuilding. A lot of praise must go to all involved with this club and the players have taken the field each week with enthusiasm and outstanding toughness. They should be a model for other teams to follow and I look forward to seeing what they produce in years to come. They have made several tough calls and it is beginning to pay dividends for them, but the preseason will be more enjoyable if they were to win here. The Sea Eagles will not want that to occur though and this match is promising to be another great dose of Sunday afternoon football.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

There are a host of changes following their impressive win over the Storm last week. Perhaps this is the best chance that the Sea Eagles will have to rest a few players, considering they are certain to finish in either 3^rd or 4^th spot. Brett Stewart is out of this game with a hamstring injury and Peta Hiku takes his place in the team. He is a talented youngster who will be again aiming for another impressive performance. His move from the wing has opened up a vacant spot and in a testament to the depleted depth of their club; Geoff Toovey has been forced to name Tom Symonds on the wing. He has played a whole host of positions throughout his career but wing has not been one of them. It will be interesting to see if this is the way the Sea Eagles take the field or is just Toovey springing a surprise. Elsewhere, Jamie Buhrer is out with an injury and David Gower takes his place in the starting team. On the bench, Jesse Sene-Lefao is named to play in jersey 16 and the recalled George Rose will join him. This will be the last time the charismatic forward runs onto Brookvale Oval in a Sea Eagles jersey and you would expect the faithful fans to give him an almighty send off.

Penrith Panthers

Similarly to their opponents, the Panthers will field a team that has a few changes from last week. Brad Tighe has been named to return from injury in the centres and this has allowed coach Ivan Cleary to move Lewis Brown back to the second row. He takes Clint Newton’s spot and he is moved back to the bench at the expense of Nathan Smith (18^th man). At prop, Tim Grant has been ruled out of this match with an injury and Nigel Plum takes his place in the starting team. Plum has only just returned from injury himself and it is pleasing to see that he will have the chance to have a final say on the season. It would take a mountain of luck for the Panthers to make the Finals and their chances are slim to say the least. Regardless, no one expected them to get this far and overall, you can consider their run this season a success under the various circumstances.

Recent History

Overall = Sea Eagles 49 Draw 1 Panthers 27

Last 5 games = Sea Eagles 3 Panthers 2

At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 28 Panthers 9

Stats that matter

• The Panthers are playing a very disciplined brand of football this season that has seen them have a 74.8% completion rate (3^rd) and commit only 10.3 errors (4^th) per game. The Sea Eagles are a little better though, their completion rate is 73.8% and they make just 10.1 errors (3^rd).
• The attacking flair of the Sea Eagles is there for everyone to see each week. They create an average of 5.2 line breaks per game and are ranked 2^nd in the competition for this stat. The Panthers will need to do a lot to match that; they make 4.5 line breaks per game and are ranked in 7^th.
• The average amount of points conceded each week tells the story of the different standing on the table for both sides. As good as they can be, the Panthers leak too many points and concede an average of 22.0 points (11^th). The Sea Eagles are far superior in this area, allowing their opponents just 14.3 points each week (2^nd).

 

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $1.20 Panthers $4.50
Centrebet = Sea Eagles $1.22 Panthers $4.45
Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $1.25 Panthers $3.85
Betfair = Sea Eagles $1.26 Panthers $4.40

Verdict

It is hard to go past the Sea Eagles in this match but their performance may lye within their motivation. Assuming that the Storm win their match on Saturday night, they best position they could finish in is 3^rd. That would mean a potential clash with the Rabbitohs in Week 1 of the Finals. Perhaps they might see themselves as a better chance of beating one side over the other. Hopefully it doesn’t come to this but be wary and pay attention to the team that is named. Above all else, the Sea Eagles are a better football team and regardless of the Panthers efforts, they should be too much. Their forwards are stronger and they possess one of the best backlines in the league. Then you have their halves, who are experienced well beyond their years and know how to grind out a tough victory. Even with a few players missing from their side, they should be too strong. The hardest decision will be settling on a margin for this match, but given how the Panthers faded in their last match and how well Manly put the Storm to the sword, they should get out to a very comfortable margin of victory. They will want to send a message with this game that they are ready and firing for the Finals! Before placing your bets though, check my twitter feed to see if anything changes upon the teams being named for this match.

Suggested Bet

Sea Eagles 13+ @ $1.80

Sea Eagles 13-18 @ $4.50 – If you want to be a little more specific on your margin, then consider this option. It shouldn’t be a complete blowout and the Sea Eagles may choose to hook a few key players to have them avoid injury for next week. The Panthers also keep coming and they will be pushing hard right until the final whistle.

Lyon’s den = Jamie Lyon FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – Lyon has scored the first 2 tries in the last 3 games and his run doesn’t look like ending soon. The young Sea Eagles halves will want to go to him as much as possible to give him every chance of getting one on one with his defender

Newcastle Knights v Parramatta Eels

All eyes at 3pm will move to Newcastle as the Knights look to assure themselves of a spot in the Finals with a win over the Eels. They have been disappointing in recent weeks and they could’ve avoided this situation all together had they won a few of the games that they were expected to. They will be the first to admit that and their coach Wayne Bennett would be disappointed in how they have performed during certain stages of this season. Still, this day is going to be an important one for them and it is only amplified by the occasion. Each year the Knights host “Old Boys Day” where former players are welcomed back to their playing home. It is a great sight to see and the performance of the home side on this day is always solid. It does not make the task of winning any easier for the Eels, not that they were really in with a chance though. In saying that, their win last week would undoubtedly give them confidence for this game. They played  well to some extent, but at this stage of the season, the Dragons are hardly setting the world alight. The Eels will capture their second consecutive wooden spoon once the season is over and it only highlights how far this club still has to improve. There are several problems at various levels within the club and the situation of Ricky Stuarts “possible” departure to the Raiders isn’t helping. Amongst all this, the players look disinterested and they will be looking forward to the season ending. No one knows what the future will hold in store for the Eels but a few players may just be playing for their futures in this game. That is about the only motivation for them heading into this game and the task of overcoming the Knights is going to be very difficult. They have everything to play for and will want to come into form for Week 1 of the Finals. Whether or not this game plays out like the forgone conclusion that it appears, remains to be see. The “match of the day” should be an intriguing contest nonetheless.

Newcastle Knights

The Knights suffered a major blow last week, as Kurt Gidley was stretchered off the field with an ankle injury. That has put an end to his playing time this season and his absence leaves a large whole to fill. Alex McKinnon moves back to fill Gidley’s place on the bench, although last game he was promoted to start in place of Tyrone Roberts. This week, Roberts will start the game at halfback and McKinnon’s relegation back to the bench is due to the return of Jeremy Smith. This is a major boost to the team and his inclusion in the middle of the field is going to add a defensive edge. This game will also be the final home match for Newcastle stalwart, Danny Buderus. He is retiring at the end of the season and has been one of the best hookers that this game has seen. No doubt the Knights fans, players and old boys will want to give him a farewell to remember.

Parrmatta Eels

Who knows what is going on out at Parramatta currently, but the team will be somewhat similar to last week. Ken Sio will play fullback in place of the injured Jarryd Hayne and Ben Roberts will take his place in the centres, allowing Vai Toutai to move to the wing. In the halves, Reni Maitua will play 5/8 and will try to offer Luke Kelly any support possible, although some of the rumours around about his attitude since finding out he is unwanted by this club are questionable. This means that Pat O’Hanlon is named to play second row and will partner Mitch Allgood. On the bench, Jake Mullaney was unused last week and Daniel Harrison has been named in his spot for this game. Mullaney is a solid player and has proven himself fairly worthy at this level; Stuart just hasn’t discovered the right way to use him just yet.

Recent History

Overall = Knights 23 Draw 1 Eels 19

Last 5 games = Knights 4 Eels 1

At Hunter Stadium = Knights 15 Eels 6

Stats that matter

• The Eels were a different team last week and it shows on their stats. They had a 75.8% completion rate, made just 8 errors, created 5 line breaks and missed just 16 tackles. If only they could’ve played like that all season.
• The Knights are strong when they have the ball and they just need to become a little more dangerous when it is in their possession. They average a 75.3% completion rate (2^nd) and commit just 10 errors per game (2^nd). If they can become more dangerous and turn their strong field position into points, who knows what is in store for them.
• It is no surprise to see the Eels ranked so lowly in terms of points scored and conceded. They are 16^th for both, only scoring an average of 13.9 points and conceding 29.8 each week. As for the Knights, they are travelling a little better and score 20.7 per match (8^th), while conceding 18.0 to their opponents (6^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Knights $1.10 Eels $7.50

Centrebet = Knights $1.07 Eels $9.00

Sportsbet = Knights $1.09 Eels $8.00

Betfair = Knights $1.11 Eels $9.00

Verdict

This ground has not been friendly to the Eels and I am expecting the trend to continue. There are too many impacting factors that are having a positive effect on the Knights, which suggest the Eels not win this game. Sure, they were a better-performed team last week than they have been all season but that was against the Dragons. In that game, they had nothing to play for and their motivation was low. It will be a different opponent this week as the Knights have everything to play for and need a win to assure themselves a spot in the Finals. On top of that, they have a stronger set of forwards that are complimented and well supported by their outside backs. The Knights attack has struggled to gain any fluency in their efforts but they are better performed when they’re at home. It should be all one-way traffic and the margin of this game could get ugly for the Eels. Take the Knights to win by a comfortable margin in this game and have the hype building around their chance throughout the remainder of September.

Suggested Bet

Knights -22.5 @ $1.90

Line up to pick this = Knights -30.5 @ $2.98 – If you’re aiming for a little more value in your bet, then consider picking a line that suits you. I think this margin is fine, given that 5+ converted tries have to be score by the Knights. That is possible and they have the defensive structure to limit the Eels scoring.

Let’s go Broseph = Joseph Leilua FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Leilua has scored first twice in the last 3 games for the Knights. In saying that, only one of those have been the first in the game but he is sure to go close to opening his sides account in this match.