The Finals Series for 2013 is so close, you can almost touch it. Tension is building and games are becoming increasingly important. The quality of rugby league is not declining either and the surprises that this league has in store are plentiful. Opinions are everywhere and fans of the game are developing thoughts on who can win the title and who deserves the chance to fill the remaining places in the 8. Momentum is always essential, however now it is becoming even more crucial to the success of a team. A loss now could be detrimental to their hopes and aspirations, while home ground advantage is proving vital. Unfortunately, the standard of refereeing has not been up to the level that it should be and it’s frustrating when they affect the outcome of a game with blow of the whistle. Hopefully when it matters most, they are making the right decision and they are always in control of the game. Get ready for the closing games of the season, there is still everything to play for and every pass, kick, tackles and try has the potential to impact upon the overall result of the game. Let’s enjoy the ride that the penultimate round of the NRL will offer. This Friday, games will be split between the two major rugby league states.

Wests Tigers v South Sydney Rabbitohs

In NSW, the Tigers will look to make it two consecutive wins against a rejuvenated Rabbitohs outfit. All of a sudden, people are beginning to take notice of their premiership potential again. They have rocketed back into calculations for the Finals with two strong performances against fellow Top 8 teams. Last week, it was the Bulldogs that were on the receiving end of it and despite having a late scare with the Bulldogs attack, the Rabbitohs always appeared in control of the game. Their forwards were fantastic in the opening stages and the force that they applied to their opponents became too much for them to handle. A lot of their play does rely on certain individuals fulfilling their role and playing to the level that is expected of them. It seems as though the loss that the Roosters suffered in Round 24 will now offer them the opportunity to win the minor premiership against their rivals in Round 26. Firstly, they have the Tigers to deal with and they will be boosted by their efforts last week. Somehow, they turned around their form from the previous weeks and they put the Dragons to the sword 34-18. Not many people saw that performance coming but the injection of rookie Luke Brooks into their team has given their fans something to look forward to next season. Unluckily, he will not feature in the remaining games this season due to second tier salary cap restrictions. This means that they will revert back to the players that they have relied upon for most of the season and that is hardly going to give them an increased chance of winning this contest. You get the impression that this contest is going to be a very one sided battle and while that may be the case, the Rabbitohs will want to get through this game with minimal problems. The bigger picture for them is the approaching Finals series and as the Tigers will not feature there, they have a great chance to cause a stir. The Rabbitohs will cement down a top 2 spot on the ladder with a win, however Roosters and Storm fans will be hoping that the Tigers produce something out of the ordinary to disrupt the Rabbitohs performance.

Wests Tigers

The Tigers are hopeful of keeping their momentum going for a further two weeks but they will have a harder task without Luke Brooks. This means that Benji Marshall and Braith Anasta will likely reunite as the halves pairing. As it stands, the side that was named last week is similar to the one here. However most notably, their skipper Robbie Farrah returns to their team. That is a strong move and it is just in time to enhance their chances of winning in Marshall’s 200^th game. After the video of him was released in an Auckland Blues jersey, it is very hard to stay positive over his selection but the service he has given the club has earned him his chance at this milestone. In the forwards, Ben Murdoch-Masila is named to start a lock this week, moving from second row. The new face there is Curtis Sironen who has played majority of his football this year in the halves. That is surprising to say the least, but this has forced a reshuffle on the bench, with Shaun Spence promoted to jersey 16. Bodene Thompson has again been named in the centres but it remains to be seen whether or not he will take the field in this position.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Rabbitohs are boosted this week by the return of Sam Burgess to their team following a 2-week suspension. A lot has been made about this because there is a chance that all 4 of the Burgess boys will be on the field at the same point together. Due to Burgess’ inclusion, Ben Lowe has vacated the team. On the bench, Jeff Lime has been named after his omission through injury in recent weeks. This has forced Jason Clark back to 18^th man and he will join Matt King (19^th), who has recently announced his retirement from the game at the end of the season. The Burgess twins will have to bide their time before entering the game and the impact that they will offer off the bench will be different for the Tigers to counter. There is some word around that Greg Inglis may be rested from this match following his continuing problems associated with a knee injury in their game over the Bulldogs. The attention it got from their opponents didn’t help either but after having a few weeks out, perhaps he will need the outing to continue to regain his match fitness.

Recent History

Overall = Tigers 9 Rabbitohs 12

Last 5 games = Tigers 1 Rabbitohs 4

At ANZ Stadium = Tigers 2 Rabbitohs 3

Stats that matter

• It would’ve been difficult for any side to try and contain the Rabbitohs last week, given how well they played. They completed 84.6% of their sets, made just 8 errors and missed just 20 tackles.
• The Rabbitohs pack of forwards is big, strong and tough. It will be a handful for the Tigers to handle, especially considering they make an average of 9.07m per carry of the ball (4^th). As for the Tigers, they make just 8.77m per carry (12^th) but perhaps the injection of Farrah back into their lineup will help.
• When you look at the average amount of points scored and conceded by both sides, this score line could reach anything. The Tigers score an average of 15.7 points per game (14^th) and allow their opponents 27.5 each week (15^th), while the Rabbitohs concede just 15.5 (4^th) and score 24.7 per game (3^rd).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Tigers $11.00 Rabbitohs $1.05

Centrebet = Tigers $12.00 Rabbitohs $1.04

Sportsbet = Tigers $10.00 Rabbitohs $1.06

Betfair = Tigers $11.00 Rabbitohs $1.06

Verdict

These two sides enjoy a very close overall record but this game will be anything but an intimate affair. The Rabbitohs sit a top of the competition table for a reason, much like the Tigers season is summed up through their positioning. This game is a matter of “how much” rather than “who” will win this contest. Even if the Rabbitohs do choose to rest Greg Inglis, the attacking threats that they have around the field will be overwhelming for the Tigers. Do not get caught up in their last start victory over the Dragons. They are hardly a team that has set the NRL on fire this year and the points that they scored can be attributed to the lackluster defence at the best of times. If anything, fans should be alarmed that the Dragons were still able to score 18 points, further suggesting that this score line could get out to embarrassing proportions. I wouldn’t go as far as saying “Parramatta-embarrassing”, but it could get fairly close if the Rabbitohs take the field in the best possible condition. You cannot see them letting up either; while this game isn’t the best preparation for a Finals game, the attacking moves they can experiment with and the defensive structures they can implement will serve them well. Expect a dominating display from them and the Tigers will be forced to play for pride in the end.

Suggested Bet

Rabbitohs -22.5 @ $1.90

Bite off a little more = Rabbitohs -30.5 @ $3.05 – You will have to search for this market and may have to settle for picking your own line. I expect this game to be a blowout and the Tigers will have their hands full containing their opponents. They have put plenty of points past some of the strongest defensive teams in the competition and this match should be no different given the Tigers flaws.

Left side success = Bryson Goodwin FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – The rest of the Rabbitohs backline is at very short odds and given the favor they give to their left side, you can see them scoring on this edge. This is where Goodwin comes into play and he should be difficult to stop when he gets close to the line.

Brisbane Broncos v Newcastle Knights

The other game this evening heads north of the boarder and arguably the attention of the rugby league world will be on this match, rather than the one-sided contest that is going to take place in Sydney. The outcome of this game affects more than just the two sides in the contest and could have one of the greatest bearings on the ultimate positions within the 8. The Broncos all but sealed their fate for the season last week with a loss to the Panthers. There was everything for them to play for in that game and it was a disappointing outcome to say the least. Many people thought that they would be able to move past the Panthers with relative easy but that wasn’t the case. Full credit must go to the Panthers; they played a great game of football that handed the Broncos a comprehensive and embarrassing loss. Mathematically speaking, they can still make the Top 8, but that would require losses from teams above them on the table. They are in 13^th spot on the ladder but have a better point’s difference than the teams sitting from 12^th-9^th. This game is going to be the deciding factor on their chances and the importance of it is only amplified by the fact that a win would draw them level with the Knights on 25 points. Currently, the Knights are in 7^th spot and they would be annoyed with their performance last week against the Cowboys. Had they’ve won that game, they would all but assured themselves a spot in the Top 8 but they were outplayed in every area. It only further highlighted how fragile they are when they travel and the task for them does not become any easier this week. There are 6 teams within 2 points of them that are hoping that a “slip up” will occur. Their season is yet to reach the heights that were expected of them and their coach Wayne Bennett is going to have his work cut out. With a lot more on the line, this game is undoubtedly the feature game of the evening. It was only 4 weeks ago in Round 21 that these two teams battled their way to an 18-all draw. In that match, the Knights were able to score 2 tries in the final 10 minutes to draw level with their opponents. Neither team was able to affect a result on the chances they were given; and they were forced to share the competition points. If this game is even slightly similar to that contest, we are going to be treated to a great game of rugby league.

Brisbane Broncos

With everything on the line in this match, the Broncos are boosted by the return of Alex Glenn. He will move straight back into the starting side, although he will be out of position in the centres. This move has forced David Stagg back to the bench and Scott Anderson to 18^th man. Stagg was fairly solid in his effort on the edge but Glenn will be a little more accustomed to the position than him. That is the only change for the Broncos and they are now searching for a 5/8 for next year after Scott Prince announced his retirement at the end of this season. It has been a long time coming but when he was able to, he offered some fairly solid support for the squad. Something needs to click into gear for them too; otherwise Griffin may be looking for a job for next season.

Newcastle Knights

There is just the one change for Knights this week and no surprises that it is the omission of Kade Snowden following his 7-week suspension. Luckily for them, Willie Mason has recovered from injury in time to take his place in the side. On the Snowden issue, personally I believe that it is very harsh considering that on top of that, he was also sent off. Furthermore, it appears as though the injury that Thompson suffered has played a role in the decision by the match review committee. On the other hand, he does have to pay a price and as the Cowboys will be missing him from their side for a number of weeks, perhaps it is only fair that Snowden will be out for the same amount of time. One thing is for sure; they have set a precedent that they must follow from now on (how many times have we said that in the last 5 years or so?).

Recent History

Overall = Broncos 27 Draw 1 Knights 12

Last 5 games = Broncos 4 Draw 1 Knights 0

At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 8 Knights 3

Stats that matter

• Just like the last time they met, I am expecting an end-to-end contest thanks to the ball security of both sides. The Broncos complete 77.5% of their sets (1^st) and commit just 9 errors per match (1^st), while the Knights are a tad behind them with a 75.1% completion rate (3^rd) and 10 errors per match (2^nd).
• The tackles that the Broncos are missing each week are hampering their effort to limit their opponents scoring. They are ranked 16^th in the competition and missed an average of 31.8 per week, leading to them conceding 20.0 points per week (9^th). As for the Knights, they have faired a little better, missing 28.1 tackles (9^th) and conceding 18.0 points each week (6^th).
• The average line breaks has also lead to them struggling to score points. The Knights create 3.8 per game (12^th) and score around 20.5 points (6^th). The Broncos create more line breaks (4.0 – 11^th), however score less points per game at 18.2 (=12^th)

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Broncos $1.70 Knights $2.20

Centrebet = Broncos $1.75 Knights $2.12

Sportsbet = Broncos $1.72 Knights $2.15

Betfair = Broncos $1.76 Knights $2.20

Verdict

This game is going to be as tight as it was only 3 weeks ago. Not much has changed since then and some would argue that the Knights have in fact declined a little if their performance last week is anything to go by. Then again, the Broncos hardly set the world alight as a team comprehensively beat them in a game they were expected to handle with ease. There is more than meets the eye at the Broncos, as the current run of form is out of character for them. Whatever that is remains to be seen and at this stage of the season, you still cannot invest money on either side involved in this contest with any confidence. They are too inconsistent for anyone’s liking, perhaps meaning that the best choice in this game may just be to aim for a close contest. For what it is worth, I think that the Broncos will win this contest, based only on the fact that they are the home side and the Knights will be fatigued from the traveling they have had to make from Townsville last Saturday. Then again with so much on the line, you would expect a Bennett-coached team to have what it takes. Take a quick look at the option below, but try not to invest too much money on this contest.

Suggested Bet

Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.75

New Zealand Warriors v Canberra Raiders

Super Saturday is making the 3pm KO time very comfortable for fans and it is great seeing some more footy played in daytime conditions. This week, the afternoon fixtures heads over to New Zealand in another vital contest between the Warriors and the Raiders. With things heating up on the table, neither team can afford a slip in form as their season depends on it. Unfortunately for the Raiders, the task ahead of them appears to be beyond them at this point and team disharmony is doing little to enhance their chances. It is as if every day there is a new story breaking in regards to Blake Ferguson or the apparent unrest within their roster. It must be getting to a very frustrating point for their fans and the fact that they are now rumoured to be offering Ricky Stuart a coaching position will do little to excite them for this season. The fact is that their season still hangs in the balance and right now it is up to replacement coach, Andrew Dunnemen, to keep them fighting until the end. It was always going to be interesting to see what impact the mid-week decision to sack Dave Furner was going to have but just when you thought it might’ve lit a spark under them, they were comprehensively beaten by a far superior Sea Eagles team. That demonstrated just how far away this Raiders team is from being competitive with the form teams of the competition. It is safe to say that the loser of this game can begin to book a holiday in two weeks time. Heading into this game, both sides will be firmly locked on 24 points and only separated by point’s difference (Warriors -84 v Raiders -136). The Warriors will be fresh following a strong display over the Titans, but they were made to work right up until the final whistle. The Titans even had a chance to steal the game away from their opponents with the last play of the game, only to come up short. Either way, it kept the Warriors alive for another week and they now must work on reaffirming their Finals chances. Many people believe that they possess a roster that is too talented to miss out on the business end of the season but the one thing working against them will be their form on the road. They appear to be a different team when they are playing in front of their home fans and the travel is surely going to wear them down at one point or another each season. Nonetheless, if they want it bad enough, they must produce when it matters most. It will be intriguing viewing to watch both sides fight so hard to keep their season alive and even the clubs around them will be viewing to see the impact it will have. It is an early start, but a great way to start the night of football action.

New Zealand Warriors

After a strong win last week, the Warriors have chosen to name the same 17. This is aimed at promoting consistency within their lineup and no doubt that has helped in the second half of this season. Ngani Laumape has also been retained as 18^th man, but he will be likely to miss out on selection altogether. There are still a few fragilities within their side and if their defence doesn’t hold up on the edges, opposition sides may take advantage. As for their attack, they need to control the ball and not completely rely on a “spark” to get them through a game. Their offloads are always difficult to counteract and when making a tackle, their opponents need to ensure that they are wrapping up the ball as well as the tackled player.

Canberra Raiders

There are again a host of changes for the Raiders this week and that was always expected following the extra week that Andrew Dunnemen has had with this squad. They are boosted by the return of Terry Campese at 5/8 and this has forced Anthony Milford to move, but he will partner Campese after being named at halfback. This has come at the expense of Josh McCrone who has made way for the talented youngster. He is not dropped though; he is just shifted to hooker for Shaun Berrigan. In the centres, Joel Thompson returns to the centres and Bill Tupou is moved to the wing after making his Raider debut last week. Sandor Earl is the player that leaves the side and it may be the last time that we see him in a Raiders jersey with his impending departure to France. In the forwards, Joel Edwards takes the vacant second row spot given up due to Thomspon’s move. This has allowed Jake Foster to come into the side on the bench and Matt McIlwrick is named as 18^th man, but he is likely to miss out on selection altogether.

Recent History

Overall = Warriors 12 Raiders 17

Last 5 games = Warriors 1 Raiders 4

At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 9 Raiders 6

Stats that matter

• The Raiders have been their own worst enemy this year. As it stands, they have a 70.3% completion rate (15^th) and make 11.8 errors per match (15^th). This isn’t to say that the Warriors have been free from fault; they complete 70.7% of their sets (12^th) and make 11 errors per match (10^th). Both sides ultimately only have themselves to blame.
• Despite averaging just 27 missed tackles per game (=6^th), the Raiders still concede an average of 24.4 points (14^th). The Warriors are not much better with 29.9 misses per game (12^th) and 23.6 points allowed (13^th) each week.
• The Warriors will know what they need to do to win this game and scoring around 25.4 points should do the trick. That is the average amount of points scored in their victories and while the Raiders average 25.8, they will find it tough to consistently score points in a game that is away from home.

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Warriors $1.26 Raiders $4.00

Centrebet = Warriors $1.30 Raiders $3.65

Sportsbet = Warriors $1.33 Raiders $3.45

Betfair = Warriors $1.34 Raiders $3.45

Verdict

Having a quick glance at the record between the two sides, perhaps the Raiders find the Warriors a team that is easier to handle than most. Then again, that will probably mean little in this contest as the Warriors have won majority of their games over the Raiders on home soil. With everything to play for, the Warriors are the form team in this contest. It becomes even tougher to like to Raiders considering they are on a 4-game slide and perform poorly away from home. In saying that, I am very wary of the impact that coach Andrew Dunneman will have on this side and now that they know what is expected of them, perhaps we will be treated to the best that the Raiders have to offer. However that is too volatile to depend on and when you think about it, the Warriors are a different team to the one that we saw at the beginning of the season. Their style and execution have changed, where as the Raiders still look lost for answers. They are tirelessly searching for the right combination within their team to make winning a habit, but unfortunately it could be too late. If they have any pride, they will keep this contest competitive right up until the final whistle, but the Warriors should be the benefactors once the concluding siren sounds.

Suggested Bet

Warriors 1-12 @ $3

Comfortable enough = Warriors 7-12 @ $5.25 – If you are looking for more value in your selection, then consider this option. The Raiders should be able to keep this game competitive enough but the Warriors should also have a winning margin that is more than a converted try. Thus, this option comes into play in a major way.

Return of the Beast = Manu Vatuvei FTS and/or LTS @ $6 – The odds on offer are short and Vatuvei has failed to cross the line first or last in the last 3 games. Nevertheless, he enjoys a great strike rate at his home ground and the last time he opened the scoring account in a match was at Mt Smart Stadium. Given the Chance, he is going to be very difficult to stop so close to the line.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v Penrith Panthers

The second game this evening is promising to be another exciting and frantic contest between the two sides flying the flag for western Sydney. There is always a hype made surrounding the “battle for the west” but this season has seen many of the Sydney clubs falter when it has mattered most. However it was the game that almost didn’t happen as the NRL clumsily booked this clash in when ANZ Stadium was already being used by the AFL. As it stands, it is now left to the Bulldogs and the Panthers to take up ownership and try to keep their fans hopes alive for a little longer. At Canterbury, fingers will not be hovering over the panic button just yet, although some people may begin to get a little anxious. A win by the Sharks in Round 24 pushed them back into 6^th place and while still in a very strong position, mathematically if they were to lose the next two games they could miss out on a Finals spot. The chances of this happening are slim, but they will find it difficult to back up from a very physical encounter against the South Sydney Rabbitohs last Friday. In saying that, they are a team that knows what it takes to win close football matches and they will only benefit from the players that are expected to return back to their side in the coming weeks. Although the return of Ben Barba may not actually eventuate and the issues surrounding his impending departure from the club is beginning to get nauseating. For what it is worth, he must be held accountable for his request and the Bulldogs should receive compensation for eventually deciding to release him. Player departures and signings have been a factor for the Panthers all season as they look to rebuild their club but it is having minimal effect on their performance. Sure, it is not an ideal situation and many of their decisions have been questioned, but they are currently in strong position to feature in September. It would be an accomplishment if they were to make it considering their stage of rebuilding and their current injury toll. Yet a win like they had last week over the Broncos is only going to enhance their chances and they proved just how dangerous they could be. If they are not careful, the Bulldogs may find themselves on the wrong side of the scoreboard at a time when they are still fighting for home-ground advantage in Week 1 of the Finals. You can never discount either side’s effort but ultimately; it may come down to their execution. It is going to be interesting to see just how this one plays out and which side will be able to stamp their authority on the game.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

In another suspension dilemma in the NRL, the Bulldogs will this week be without Frank Pritchard. Compared to Kade Snowdens hit, Pritchard can thanks his lucky stars that Goodwin was not injured as much as Thompson was. Otherwise, he was heading for a similar sentence and rest on the sidelines. Tony Williams is called into the side this week to replace him, after finding himself starting the last few matches on the bench. It is amazing to see the decline in form from him over the course of the year and it would be interesting to see his worth if he was off contract this season. His promotion to the team opens up the chance for youngster Lachlan Burr to be named on the bench, following the past few weeks where he was just the 18^th man. There is a lot of hype around this player and it will be intriguing to see if he lives up to the expectation. With the Barba situation finally settled, the Bulldogs can put that behind them and just worry about the approaching Finals Series.

Penrith Panthers

As has been the case for several weeks now, Ivan Cleary has chosen to name Tim Grant in the starting side and Jeremy Latimore on the bench. However, Latimore has found his way onto the field as a starter in a late change. Cleary is trying to get the best out of both players but it is a little surprising that he is keeping Grant on the sidelines. You would think that he would be crucial to establishing the early tempo of a game but apparently not. Elsewhere, the Panthers remain unchanged and they will look to build on a very solid effort against the Broncos. Replacement hooker James Segeyaro is expected to receive increased playing minutes, following his hat trick of tries last week. It is a tough situation that Cleary is in with him and captain Kevin Kingston, but such is the quality of person that Kingston is, he will not mind being replaced if it is for the betterment of the team. It should be noted that Matt Moylan has been left out of the team after last week being named as 18^th man and has been named in the NSW Cup. Perhaps the great season he has enjoyed in the NRL has come to an end prematurely thanks to salary cap restrictions but it will not be the last that we see of this talented youngster.

Recent History

Overall = Bulldogs 47 Draw 3 Panthers 32

Last 5 games = Bulldogs 2 Panthers 3

At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 2 Draw 1 Panthers 6

Stats that matter

• The Panthers were sublime last week in their win. They averaged a 90% completion rate, made just 6 errors, carried the ball for 9.70m per carry and missed just 25 tackles. You can only imagine the potential of their team if they were to play like this every week.
• The Bulldogs are certainly not the same team that they were last season and missing key personnel within their forwards is hardly going to help. They are ranked in 16^th for metres per carry with an average of 8.62m. The Panthers are not much better with an average of 8.87m (11^th) but they showed last week just what they are capable of.
• Unfortunately for the Panthers, they may have a tough time if the scoring averages are anything to go by. The Bulldogs average 21.8 points in attack (5^th) and concede just 19.9 in defence (8^th); where as the Panthers allow their opponents 21.5 points per game (10^th) and score just 20.1 (8^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Bulldogs $1.35 Panthers $3.25

Centrebet = Bulldogs $1.38 Panthers $3.15

Sportsbet = Bulldogs $1.38 Panthers $3.15

Betfair = Bulldogs $1.46 Panthers $2.96

Verdict

The job ahead of the Panthers in this match does seem beyond them. Then again they have proven in the last few weeks that they have enough belief within their team to capture an upset. On the other hand, the Bulldogs should be coming into form about now and to put things into perspective, their loss to the Rabbitohs could’ve been less had their goal kicker had his radar firing. Unfortunately it wasn’t and they are now left with the task of trying to bounce back against a team that is fighting to keep their Finals hopes alive. This game is going to be a very close contest, but the Bulldogs should have enough quality within their team to control the match from start to finish. On top of the players that they are already missing from the forwards, Frank Pritchard’s absence will cause further disruption. However if they are to be competitive throughout September, this is a game that they will have to win. The Panthers will push them and their enthusiasm they possess should keep this game within the 1-12 margin.

Suggested Bet

Bulldogs 1-12 @ $3

Persist with Perrett = Sam Perrett FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Perrett has been in great decent form in recent weeks and you only have to look as far as his last 6 matches. He has scored the first try in 4 of those matches (2 first of the game) and the last try once. He has been lucky that his players have created opportunities for him, but the good players in the competition know how to finish off those attacking movements.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles v Melbourne Storm

With everything else happening this weekend the league, many people have forgotten about the epic battle that will conclude Super Saturday action. In this match, we return to Brookvale Oval as the Sea Eagles look to draw level with the Storm on the competition ladder. There are plenty of contributing factors to this contest that are going to make this game exciting enough, without having to think back to the “Battle of Brookvale”. It was only back in Round 10 that these two sides fought out an epic draw at AAMI Park. Make no mistake about it, these two sides hate one another and a win here would mean a lot more than just 2 competition points. The chance that either side will finish in the top 2 is very slim but surely they have a preference as to which team they would like to play. To top it all off, momentum and a win over a fellow Top 8 opponent is vital. Both sides were strong in their efforts last week and with the talent they possess within their team, they are coming into fruition at the right point in the season. The home sides potential is there for all to see, running on an unbroken formula for several years. This has lead to success, however this year, the overall depth of their squad is still questionable. As for the Storm, the “big 3” are the centerpiece and when they are firing, they become difficult to stop. Playing at home is always an advantage to them but they will not shy away from the challenge of winning on the road that this game offers. It will be an exciting contest to say the least. Both sides have the opportunity to grab a win over a fellow Top 4 team that they may actually face in the Finals Series. Such is the magnitude of this contest; many other teams will be tuning in to see if they appear to have any limiting factors related to their performance. The intensity of this game is going to be high and dare I say that we may get a taste of exactly what the Finals Series for 2013 has in store for us.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

The Sea Eagles had a few disruptions last week and most notably, Brett Stewart was a late withdrawal from the team. In his place, Peta Hiku was called into the side and he again proved himself as a suitable replacement for the exciting fullback. Stewart is expected to return this week and this has forced Hiku back to NSW Cup, but he may find himself on the wing after the 2-game suspension handed to Jorge Taufua for an incident earlier in the year on the Gold Coast. Full credit to Manly for making the move but it does appear as though they have waited until their Top 4 position is assured before acting. While gaining one star player, they lose another, with Anthony Watmough forced out of the team through injury. Perhaps there is similar thinking behind his withdrawal and he may be given the next two weeks to rest. In his place, Jamie Buhrer earns a recall from the bench and this has subsequently allowed last week’s 18^th man, James Hasson to be named in jersey 15. Tom Symonds will also join him on the bench, taking George Rose’s spot as he has recovered from injury.

Melbourne Storm

There is just the one change for the Storm this week and that occurs on the bench. Last week, Tohu Harris was a late withdrawal from the side. He has recovered from his niggling injury and takes his spot on the interchange, while his replacement last week, Tim Glasby, is named as 18^th man. Harris’ improvement and development this season has been pleasing to watch and he is surely one of the front-runners for rookie of the year. Again, the Storm proved last week just what they are capable of and they are firing on all cylinders at the right stage of the season. After a few relatively easy games, they will now be tested and the early intensity that the Sea Eagles set may just catch them off guard. Then again, they will know what to expect and you would think that Craig Bellamy would have his side ready to go in this game.

Recent History

Overall = Sea Eagles 10 Draw 1 Storm 13

Last 5 games = Sea Eagles 1 Draw 1 Storm 3

At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 7 Storm 4

Stats that matter

• Following a complete belting of the Eels last week, the Storm should not be feeling any effects of fatigue. They only made a total of 188 tackles in that game; well below the 311 they have averaged each week. Impressively though, they were able to create 15 line breaks and showed just how dangerous they can be with the ball.
• While the Storm tore the Eels apart last week, the Sea Eagles will take confidence away from the fact that they average 5.2 line breaks each game (2^nd) compared to the Storm’s 5.0. They will be even more dangerous this week as the return home and the form of their key players begins to return, along with their fitness.
• This game is going to be a close encounter and you only have to look as far as the amount of points each team has averaged on defence. The Sea Eagles are ranked 2^nd in the competition, allowing just 14.5 per game but the Storm are slightly behind them with 14.7 conceded (3^rd). Expect another low scoring affair as each team battles to gain control of the match.

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $2.25 Storm $1.67

Centrebet = Sea Eagles $2.20 Storm $1.70

Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $2.20 Storm $1.70

Betfair = Sea Eagles $2.30 Storm $1.75

Verdict

At this point of the season, this game could go either way. Momentum is going to be everything for both sides and the players missing from this contest may unfortunately have the biggest bearing on the result. If both sides were at full strength, it would be interesting to see just which way this contest would sway. However they aren’t and the Sea Eagles may find it difficult to get over the top of their opponents. In saying that, having the game at Brookvale Oval boosts their chances and works to offset the loss of Watmough. In games like this, I prefer to just back around a close contest. There was nothing between the two sides in Round 10 and it is tough to see this game going any other way. For that reason alone, I recommended not investing too much money into this contest. For what it is worth, I like the Storm to grab a win, but the Sea Eagles seem to lift to another level against them.

Suggested Bet

Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.65

Storm front = Storm 1-12 @ $2.80 – If you are confident that the Storm will win, then take the little bit of extra value that is on offer. It would be extremely surprising to see this game get out to a 13+ margin, so keep this one safe.

Cronulla Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys

With only two games on this Sunday, the NRL action is going to be limited but by no means will it be short of excitement. The first game will KO at 2pm as the Cronulla Sharks look to build on a promising Round 24 performance against a resurgent Cowboys team. Many people, myself included, had written off the Cowboys and their chances of making the Finals. In all honesty, I find it difficult to comprehend how a side that has played to the level that they have all year will be rewarded with a Finals berth. I guess you could say that it is all coming together for them at the business end of the season and surprisingly, they will head into Round 25 in 8^th spot on the ladder. One of their Achilles heals this season has been winning away from home. Their task of conquering that will be made even more difficult to overcome considering the Sharks recent run of form at Remondis Stadium. Last week, they turned out a dominating performance against the competition leaders, the Roosters. That effort sent a loud message to the rest of the competition that they are a force to be reckoned with. They will not be letting any off-field incidents stand in their way and their tough brand of football is prepared to be dished up each week. It is a harsh set of circumstances for them to be in and it will not become any easier when the AFL and the Essendon Bombers are continually in the headlines for similar issues. The camaraderie that this squad has developed is serving them well in hard situations on the field and they will not shy away from any battle. Their opponents here will be desperate to hold onto 8^th spot and are arguably one of the form sides of the competition. A 20-point victory last week over the Knights only reaffirmed this and reminded everyone of just how dangerous they can be on their day. It is a little too late to save the position of coach Neil Henry, yet for the time being he will remain in charge of the club. Maybe the powers at be went off a little early in sacking him and it will be interesting to see what may unfold if they do make the Finals. Firstly, they have this game to deal with. The Sharks will still be egger to lock down 5^th position and ensure themselves of home-field advantage in Week 1 of the Finals. The Cowboys could be a potential opponent in that game, making the result of this game all the more important. If their troubles on the road are put behind them, the Sharks may have a tough time of winning this contest and we are going to see a terrific game of rugby league.

Cronulla Sharks

The Sharks had little time to analyse the fitness of their squad following their impressive defeat of the Roosters on MNF. It is also no surprise that the team that took the field in that contest is named here. There were a few changes heading into that game and Sam Tagataese was called into the side late for Bryce Gibbs. He is named to start in the front row this week and Gibbs is relegated back to 18^th man. They were stretched during that game, thanks a to a bout of diarrhea suffered by Beau Ryan. The Sharks will be hoping that he recovers in time to take his place on the wing because they were forced to move Luke Lewis to the edge and weaken their back row. They demonstrated just what they were capable of last game and they should aim to keep majority of their games in the middle of the field. They are a tough football team to breakdown and the extra room created by the forward’s works wonders for Todd Carney and Jason Robinson.

North Queensland Cowboys

As “that” hit has been in the news all week, it is no surprise to see the notable omission from the Cowboys team this week is Ray Thompson at hooker. Unfortunately for him, he will be sidelined for the next 6-8 weeks and with everything going on, he is the only one that is yet to have his say on the issue. It does not help the Cowboys progress either. Hooker was already a position that they were struggling to grasp and the recent form of Thompson suggested that they might’ve found a suitable solution. This week, the task is Rory Kostjasyn’s job and as he is promoted from the bench, rookie Jayden Hodges is named to make his NRL debut. It was only last week that Wayne Ulugia was named as a late inclusion on the edge for his first start and it is pleasing to see the Cowboys gamble on a few of their younger stars. The only other change is the inclusion of Ashton Sims as 18^th man at the expense of Ethan Lowe. Sims has just served a suspension and could be a late inclusion to strengthen of the Cowboys pack.

Recent History

Overall = Sharks 20 Cowboys 11

Last 5 games = Sharks 1 Cowboys 4

At Remondis Stadium = Sharks 10 Cowboys 3

Stats that matter

• The Sharks did everything right last week and completely shut the Roosters out of the game from the beginning. They had a 82.4% completion rate, made just 8 errors with the ball and missed a small total of 20 tackles. If they play like this every week they will be a hard side to stop.
• The Cowboys have improved in their last 4 wins and you only have to look as far as their ball control. In those games, they have averaged 76% completion rate (72.5% for the season – 9^th) and committed an average of 10.3 errors (11.6 for the season – 12^th).
• Amazingly at this stage of the season, the Sharks have just a +1 point’s difference. In attack (11^th) and defence (7^th) they average 18.7 points per game and the Cowboys will find it difficult to score points against them. They may take some confidence away from their fact that their average amount of points scored is better, with 19.5 scored per game (10^th). They are also better on defence, conceding 17.8 to their opponents (5^th) per game.

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Sharks $1.53 Cowboys $2.55

Centrebet = Sharks $1.53 Cowboys $2.57

Sportsbet = Sharks $1.55 Cowboys $2.60

Betfair = Sharks $1.63 Cowboys $2.48

Verdict

Backing up from a very physical and emotional game on Monday, the Sharks will look to shut the Cowboys out of the game early. They’re a difficult opponent majority of the time and adding further insult will be the Cowboys terrible away record. If this match was to occur on their home soil, it could very well be a different story. Plenty of people give them a chance in this game and while I will not go as far as writing them off, the task ahead will be tough. The omission of Thompson at hooker again slows their effectiveness in the ruck, an area that has proven problematic for most of the season. Johnathan Thurston will have to grab something special out of his bag of tricks and they will need the right game plan to take down their opponents. However I fancy the Sharks here and they seem to have more “respectable” form heading into this game following a wins over the Roosters and the Warriors. I am expecting that there will be little between the two sides at the final whistle and the close contest should mean a decent return for punters.

Suggested Bet

Sharks 1-12 @ $2.85

Flash Gordon = Michael Gordon FTS and/or LTS @ $13 – There are still fantastic odds on offer despite Gordon’s recent try scoring efforts. I recommended him last week but he unfortunately crossed for the second try. Not to worry though, he has a great chance of popping up anywhere on the field and will be a key component of the Sharks attack.

Sydney Roosters v Gold Coast Titans

NRL action remains in Sydney for the 3pm “match of the day” as the Roosters look to bounce back against the Titans. Their loss on Monday night was a shock to say the least but you could see the Roosters dropping a game just before the Finals. Perhaps it was a game that they wanted to lose because it has drawn away from the hype that was building around their potential as Premiership favourites. Many people were getting ready to hand them the Minor Premiership, while also preparing for the big game on the first weekend in October. That unraveled dramatically in the first half and by that stage, the task of winning the match was beyond them. Some fragilities emerged in that performance but it will not worry their coach Trent Robinson. He is aware of his team’s potential and dropping that game will mean little in the big scheme of things. As for the Titans, hopefully their coach John Cartwright has calmed down following their loss to the Warriors. He was irate in the press conference and rightly so. There was a case for a potential penalty being given in the final play of the game that would have given the Titans the opportunity to draw level with their opponents, if not win the game. Unfortunately for them, that didn’t occur and the pressure that was mounting on this side was only enhanced as they dropped out of the Top 8. They sit in 9^th spot and will know what is on the line as the games that matter would’ve already concluded. No doubt they will also have news of the 2pm game on hand so they know where they will finish with a win. There are a lot of contributing factors that are beyond their control and ultimately; they are only in charge of their destiny. Winning will go a long way to enhancing their chances, however they have a monumental task ahead of them against the competition leaders who are coming off a loss. If their entire squad is fit, they may be a chance but like they did against the Bulldogs, they will have to take control of the game early.

Sydney Roosters

Not much went right for the Rooster last week but they are lucky that they have a few changes to make to “shake up” the team. Their captain Anthony Minichiello returns this week and reappears in his customary position of fullback. His replacement for the last two weeks, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck returns to the wing and Shaun Kenny-Dowall moves back to the centres. By no means is this a “safe” move and Roosters fans will be the first to tell you that they would perhaps like the coach to look for a better solution. In the forwards, Mitchell Aubusson is named to partner SBW in the second row, but he played there last week after being originally named in the centres. This has forced Aidan Guerra back to the bench and he will join the same players there that he did last week.

Gold Coast Titans

Not much went right for the Titans last week and their chances have only been hampered further by the news that Mark Minichiello and Ashley Harrison will be gone for the season. In their place, Ben Ridge (second row) and Ryan James will come into the starting side, with Nate Myles pushing back to lock. Luckily, there was some good news coming out of Skilled Park, as both Greg Bird and Luke Bailey are named to make a long awaited return from injury. Bird will slot straight back into the starting side and Bailey will come off the bench. Such is the problems that the Titans are experiencing with injury; they have only named a 3-man bench, with one player still to be confirmed. This has caused them to search for the availabilities of several players within their system and it will not be a positive preparation that they now have to go through. Unfortunately, they will also be without Will Zillman at fullback who has not been named after being a late withdrawal last week. David Mead was originally named at fullback but he is now out and the task of filling his position and that of the entire squad sends the Titans chances into further disarray.

Recent History

Overall = Roosters 4 Titans 6

Last 5 games = Roosters 2 Titans 3

At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 1 Titans 3

Stats that matter

• The Roosters have attacking threats all over the field but none of it would be possible without the play from their forwards. They are ranked 1^st in the competition for metres gained per carry with 9.19m. As for the Titans, they have a strong forward pack but are slightly behind the Roosters, with 8.97m per carry (8^th).
• There is a great correlation between the line breaks created for either side and the average points scored. The Titans are make 4.5 line breaks per game (=7^th), which leads to them scoring an average of 20.4 (7^th). They will struggle to stick with the Roosters, who are ranked 1^st in both area, creating 5.9 line breaks and scoring 27 points per match.
• Defence has been a key area for the Roosters all season and there is a large divide between the two sides. It is no surprise to see them ranked 1^st in the competition, conceding an average of 12.9 points per game, compared to the Titans 21.6 points each week (11^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Roosters $1.05 Titans $11.00

Centrebet = Roosters $1.03 Titans $14.00

Sportsbet = Roosters $1.05 Titans $11.00

Betfair = Roosters $1.07 Titans $12.50

Verdict

Even if the Titans were at full strength, I would be leaning towards taking the Roosters to win. Given that they are severely hampered, the Roosters should be able to take care of them in this match. That is also forgetting that the Roosters are going to want to bounce back from a shock-loss to the Sharks last week. They must restore some confidence back into their team and it will start with the forwards. The Sharks targeted them up the middle of the field and uncharacteristically, the Roosters leaked points. By the second half, it was too late for them to chase down. Expect a completely different showing here, with the extra motivation following the win to the Rabbitohs on Friday night. The Titans are not completely out of this contest though, they will be competitive for opening parts of the contest and you would expect little else considering they are fighting to keep their season alive. By the end though, the Roosters should be too strong for them and record a comfortable victory. Given the lop-sided odds in this game, we are going to have to find a few exotic markets to make this game worthwhile investing money into.

Suggested Bet

Roosters -24.5 @ $1.90

5 tries or more = Roosters -30.5 @ $2.94 – The line offered is 4 converted tries but if you want a little more value, consider going for 5. The Roosters have no difficulty scoring points when they need them and if they get too far ahead, the Titans may completely shut down and realise the fate of their season.

Winning with Williams = Sonny Bill-Williams FTS and/or LTS @ $13 – It has been a while since SBW has crossed for a try but the chance of him coming up against a depleted left hand side defence for the Titans gives him a great chance of opening or finishing the scoring. He is a damaging ball runner that is tough to stop and the Titans line may be stretched beyond their means with limited experience.

Parramatta Eels v St George-Illawarra Dragons

The concluding game this round is hardly one that is going to excite the most passionate NRL fan as the 16^th placed team, the Parramatta Eels, face off against the 15^th positioned St George-Illawarra Dragons. It will be surprising to see the exact crowd that shows up to this game but one thing is for sure, you can never question the true passion of those fans that follow their team through the good and bad times. Perhaps some people that call themselves “fans” of other teams in the competition should take note a realise what it takes to be a true supporter. Supporters of both teams should be given a medal for still following their team. There are plenty of negative words that come to mind to describe the two sides but we do not have enough time to go through them all. At Parramatta, the problems are far more complicated than just their play on the field. Their entire club is being dragged down over several media reports and the disharmony within the clubs boardroom only hampers the situation. The latest news is that Stuart has been courted by the Raiders and offered the head coaching position down there. Everyone has their opinion on the issue and it is tough to understand the situation that he is in. It would be a poor move on his part, especially considering players have been recruited to the club under the proviso that he will be coaching there next year. In the same instance, if he is not getting the full cooperation from everyone within the club, he should probably consider the Raiders offer. I still have reservations about his overall coaching ability but those closer to the clubs must see something in him. Coaching selection is also an issue over at the Dragons, but not to the extent of the Eels. Their season was over a long time ago and there are plenty of people associated with the Dragons that are calling for Price to be sacked. With the recent developments within the coaching world, perhaps this could occur and maybe they are making a play for someone behind the scenes. It wasn’t their best effort last week and the Dragons will be disappointed with that effort. It will be interesting to see if they are able to bounce back here and capture a much-needed victory. It is very hard to get motivated for this game so perhaps investing some money on it may drive up the interest around the match. It is unlike MNF to turn out a lackluster game, so tune in to see what the Finals MNF game for the season has to offer.

Parramatta Eels

With everything that happened last week against the Storm, it is very surprising to see Ricky Stuart name a relatively unchanged lineup. Perhaps it is an indication of how withdrawn he is from this club and the recent news around a possible impending departure isn’t helping the situation. Jarryd Hayne has been retained at fullback and the other change occurs in the forwards, as Fuifui Moimoi is named to start in the front row and Pat O’Hanlon has returned to the bench. There are only two games left for the Eels and no doubt the players, coaching staff and fans are waiting for the final game to put an end to another horror season. Unfortunately, there are a few rumours floating around about the behavior of certain players over the last few weeks. If they are true, the solutions to the problems of the Eels appear to be a world away.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

It was a shock to the system to say the least last week as the Dragons were outclassed and outplayed. Their situation is similar to the Eels as they are hanging out for the end of the season but their play has not been as poor as their opponents. Last week was certainly a low point for them and there are a few other performances that come to mind. In the same instance, they have also put together a few impressive parts to their game but have been unable to maintain that for the duration of a game. This week, there is just the one change on the bench. Josh Drinkwater is recalled to the team after a few weeks in and out of the side. If you were able to view his performance last week in the NSW Cup, the sooner they get this youngster into the team, the better they will be. For the mean time, Nathan Fien will be given every opportunity to finish the season in the number 7 jersey. Whether or not this is the right approach to take remains to be seen and the experience Drinkwater could gain now could serve him and the Dragons well for next season.

Recent History

Overall = Eels 11 Draw 2 Dragons 14

Last 5 games = Eels 0 Draw 1 Dragons 4

At Parramatta Stadium = Eels 6 Draw 1 Dragons 3

Stats that matter

• It is very intriguing to see the Eels ranked 5^th for metres per carry of the football. They make an average of 9.04m and sit ahead of the Dragons who are ranked in 10^th with 8.94m.
• Both sides have struggled to create anything in attack and this has negatively impacted on their average points scored. The Dragons create 3.5 per game (14^th) and score 15.4 points per game, while the Eels average 3.3 line breaks (15^th) and score just 13.4 points each week (16^th)
• Much like the first stat, it is surprising to see the Dragons ranked so highly for missed tackles. They sit in 4^th for their average of 25.7 misses a game but this has done little to stem the flow of points, averaging 22.5 conceded each week (12^th). As for the Eels, they miss 30.6 tackles weekly (14^th) and concede an average of 30.2 points to their opponents.

 

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Eels $2.10 Dragons $1.75
Centrebet = Eels $2.05 Dragons $1.80
Sportsbet = Eels $2.10 Dragons $1.75
Betfair = Eels $2.12 Dragons $1.85

Verdict

From the outset, this game is one that can go either way. Neither team has anything to play for as the Eels are destined to end the season with the wooden spoon. The only saving grace for the Dragons will be the fact that a win would carry them above the Tigers and into 14^th spot. It seems trivial but many would prefer that to just beating the Eels home. Making things more difficult is despite only winning 4 games this season; the Eels have recorded those victories on home soil. They are going to sense that they have a real chance of winning this game and that may lift them just one last time. Having the Knights the following week all but assures them of a loss so this game is their last genuine chance. It is a similar story for the Dragons though; they face the Warriors next week, who will be attempting to grab the final spot in the Top 8. In terms of a winner, I am going to select the Dragons completely on trust. My confidence in this game is very low and such is the volatile situation of it, perhaps you are better saving your money for next week. On paper, the Dragons have a better pack of forwards and while they have their flaws, the Eels current predicament is hardly going to encourage me to invest my money on them. I expect this match to be a high scoring contest and believe that the margin of victory could be anything. However as the Eels return home, you would expect them to turn out a stronger effort than they did last week, making me lean towards the 1-12 margin.

Suggested Bet

Dragons 1-12 @ $3.25

Slippery Brett = Brett Morris FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – Despite the fortune