A week is a very long time in rugby league and in between the beginning of Round 23 and Round 24; we have again seen some explosive developments. It is never a dull moment in this great game and you cannot complain about having nothing to talk about. Another coach has fallen, this time it is Raiders man David Furner, who will be looking for another gig next year. This has brought about a whole host of talks around player behavior and contracts, not to mention the buzz-word for the last few weeks “compassionate grounds”. It seems a few players are touting that as a clause to be released from their current contract, admittedly to take up a position at a different club on more money. You also have the on-going ASADA investigation that brings about fresh allegations by the day and even that has overshadowed the announcement of several retirements in the league. It is still surprising to see the NRL not step in and get involved in any of these issues because when something goes wrong, it is their brand that suffers. Amongst all of this, there is still football taking place on the field and the race is hotting up for the final positions in the Top 8. There are still 7 teams that are within 3 points of one another that are vying for 7^th and 8^th and the desperation in the closing weeks is going to be exciting viewing. The Roosters remain as the competition leaders and have 3-weeks to hold on in order to win the minor premiership, although the Rabbitohs, Storm and Manly are hungry to take them down. On top of all of this, the NRL Trophy has also been renamed! Hopefully the focus this weekend can remain on the field and we are treated to another fantastic weekend of rugby league that will also offer us the opportunity to win some money.

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Friday night action kicks off in Sydney this week with two games being played out in the west. The feature match of the evening is taking place out at ANZ Stadium, as the Rabbitohs look to remain in the winner’s circle against a very determined Bulldogs team. The Rabbitohs form was slipping recently and many were believing that the success that they had enjoyed was about to come to a sudden end. They dispelled all hope of that with a strong performance over the Sea Eagles last week. You have to admit though, a fair few things went their way in that game and they received a few penalties coming out of trouble, yet that could also be put down to the ill-disciplined play on the Sea Eagles team. Regardless, it was a performance that would have reinstalled confidence in their roster and they will again have their minds firmly fixed on the Finals and carrying as much momentum as possible into that period. For the Bulldogs, majority of the talk in the last week or two has been centered on Ben Barba. He is out injured at the moment but has not shied away from the fact that he has requested a release from his current contract, more than likely to join the Broncos in 2014. It is a shame that this has happen because on the field, they were great against the Raiders. Many people thought that they would struggle in that game but they started very strongly and handed the Raiders their second consecutive home loss. It is also the emergence of Josh Morris at fullback that will have Bulldogs fans contempt about the impending departure of Barba. Their coach Des Hasler noted in the press conference that Morris is also an international centre and is playing out of position, but may have forced his way into a new position. Their Finals hopes are sealed and now they have to only worry about securing 5^th spot so that they receive a home ground advantage in Week 1. If the Sea Eagles fail to win another game they could sneak into 4^th, but the chances of that happening are minimal (they face the Raiders, Storm and Panthers). Still, it will keep the hunger alive for them and like the Bunnies; they will want to build a solid foundation to work from in the Finals. These two sides enjoy a very healthy rivalry and the 2012 meeting in the Grand Final qualifier will be fresh in the players and fans minds leading into this game. They also share the same home ground and the atmosphere should be electric with the intensity high and plenty to play for.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

The obvious omission for the Rabbitohs this week is Jeff Lima due to his suspension. It was a very poor piece of play from him and it is a shame that he has only paid the price of 1-week on the sidelines. He should’ve gotten more and will undoubtedly be embarrassed by his actions. It was interesting to see him named at lock last week and this week, Ben Lowe will start there. Lowe meant to start their last week but was a late withdrawal and Jason Clarke again has an opportunity to shine from the bench. Dave Tyrrell (18^th), Justin Hunt (19^th) and Matt King (20^th) are all added to the bench but are expected to miss out. King was named to start in the centres last week, but the Rabbitohs were boosted by the return from injury of youngster Dylan Walker. He is dynamic on the edge and his unexpected pace can often fool defenders.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Finally, Des Hasler has stopped playing games with his backline and named Josh Morris to start at fullback. This means that Sam Perrett moves to the wing and Krisnan Inu back to the centres. Of course, this has been the way that they have lined up in the last few performances so it is not a major disruption for the team. Tony Williams is also named to start the match, but like the Morris situation, Josh Jackson has started in his place from the bench. Whether or not that happens here remains to be seen and with the impact Williams can potentially offer, injecting him into the game later on may be a wise move. That is assuming that he plays to the level that is expected of him, just like the one that got him selected for Origin. Lachlan Burr is again named as 18^th but is expected to miss out altogether.

Recent History

Overall = Rabbitohs 65 Draw 4 Bulldogs 77

Last 5 games = Rabbitohs 2 Bulldogs 3

At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 4 Bulldogs 12

Stats that matter

• The Rabbitohs controlled the game very well last week and despite a few penalties coming out of trouble they received, the real reason they won this game was due to their stats. They completed 81.6% of their sets, made just 8 errors and missed just 18 tackles.
• The Bulldogs forwards are the core of their game plan however, they are ranked 16^th for metres per carry. They make 8.60m and a few players are going to have to step up to another level, especially with Sam Kasiano out of their lineup. They may have their work cut out for them as well, as the Rabbitohs make 9.08m (3^rd) each time they handle the ball.
• The Bulldogs have no trouble scoring points in their games, it is just holding their opponents that has proved problematic. They score an average of 21.9 points (5^th), yet allow 19.5 (8^th) to their opponents. For what it is worth, the Rabbitohs may just have the Bulldogs in this area, they concede just 15.3 points (4^th) and post 24.6 (2^nd) for their total on the scoreboard.

 

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.40 Bulldogs $3.00
Centrebet = Rabbitohs $1.38 Bulldogs $3.15
Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.35 Bulldogs $3.30
Betfair= Rabbitohs $1.37 Bulldogs $3.40

Verdict

This game is a great way to start the weekend and it is certainly a difficult one to select. The Rabbitohs haven’t been anywhere near their best recently and the form that we saw from them for majority of the season appeared to have deserted them. If they hadn’t turned out a performance like they did last week, I would have no hesitation in selecting the Bulldogs. However that wasn’t the case, instead they outplayed the Sea Eagles and returned to the winners circle. Furthermore, they have been fairly strong in the losses that they have had. While the Bulldogs were winners, a hit-out against the underperforming Raiders probably isn’t the best lead in for this game. Before that, the Titans outmuscled them, a team that the Rabbitohs easily disposed of in Round 20. The difference in this game is the key players and ultimately, they will have the biggest impact on the game. The Rabbitohs have more quality players that are capable of changing the result of this game. That is not to suggest that the Bulldogs will not be competitive, this game is going to be a very close contest and the winner may not emerge until late in the game. The Rabbitohs are very hard to go past but they are going to have to work very hard to grab the 2-points in this match.

Suggested Bet

Rabbitohs -6.5 @ $1.80

Running Rabbits = Rabbitohs 7-12 @ $5.25 – This game will not be a blowout like the odds above suggest. In saying that, the Rabbitohs should still win by more than a converted try and if you want a little more value than Rabbitohs 1-12 ($2.80), then consider this margin. They fell within this margin last week again the Sea Eagles and have an uncanny ability to limit their opponents scoring in the second half.

GI Try = Greg Inglis FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – He only returned to the field last week but as he gets more game time under his belt, his play is only going to improve. He is dangerous with the ball and the Bulldogs will have their hands full trying to contain him when he touches the ball.

Penrith Panthers v Brisbane Broncos

The other Friday night game heads out to Penrith as two desperate teams face-off to keep their season alive. The Broncos and Panthers are just a point away from one another on the ladder as the Panthers are in 12^th (22 points, -45 points difference), behind the Broncos who are in 10^th (23 points, -24 points difference). This sets the stage for a great contest with the winner living to fight another day, as the Gold Coast Titans are in the 8 on 24 points (-23 points different). The Panthers surprised everyone last week with a trip to New Zealand to face the Warriors. They prevailed 28-24 and were strong in shutting the Warriors out of the match early on. Many thought that the Panthers players would struggle to contain the Warriors pack but this Penrith team is quite deceiving in terms of their strength and force in the middle of the field. Some would argue that the Broncos are also that, but it would perhaps be a lack of form that has lead to this assumption. They are holding out hopes of making a late charge towards the Finals and luckily for them, their destiny is in their own hands. Winning the 3 remaining games would be the best way to create a berth in the Finals and the reality of missing this period may have sunk in up at Brisbane. I still believe that they have a lot of work to do in order to get there and several players within this team need to take responsibility for their performances. A 22-12 victory last week over the Eels is hardly going to excite many of their supporters because when you think about how poor the Eels have been; they probably should’ve won by more. The pressure is on their entire squad and following the sacking of 2 NRL coaches before the season’s end, their coach Anthony Griffin is sure to be on very thin ice. The talent within this team is enormous and currently, it is not being utilised. They only need to take a look at their opponents to see what enthusiasm and determination can do to a team. It may not be the highest quality game of rugby league, but it should be an exciting match with everything to play for.

Penrith Panthers

There are just a few minor changes for the Panthers this week after a strong performance over the Warriors. Lachlan Coote is named to start at fullback, in place of Matt Moylan, who is named as 18^th man. This is how they lined up last week and Nathan Smith was the late inclusion on the bench. Smith is retained and will wear jersey 15 this week. In the forwards, Tim Grant has been named to start and Jeremy Latimore moves back to the bench. They were named to start this way last week, however Cleary chose to swap the players in a change that was aimed at strengthening the impact from Latimore at the beginning of the game. The Panthers team are hanging in there by a thread at the moment and a win would do their chances no harm. Perhaps they should consider putting their wingers in scoring position as much as possible, as they were fantastic last week (and majority of the season) to say the least.

Brisbane Broncos

The Broncos are also unchanged from last week, except for a few minor changes that carry over here. This included Jarrod Wallace gaining a start in jersey 19, at the expense of Nick Slyney. This week, Wallace will wear jersey 17, with Scott Anderson (18^th) and Slyney (19^th) likely to miss out. It was again a pleasing performance for the Broncos and a few players that Griffin has gambled on. This is especialy the case with halfback Ben Hunt and centre David Stagg. Hunt is playing some exciting football and appears to be leading this side well, with Peter Wallace now having a different role off the bench. Stagg has been moved to the edge due to a few injuries and while he is a strong defender, he may just get caught out of position by a faster, more experience player in this position. Their forwards also need to keep their effort levels up, they are important to their success and can ill-afford to underperform like they have for majority of the season.

Recent History

Overall =Panthers 15 Draw 1 Broncos 29

Last 5 games =Panthers 2 Broncos 3

At Centrebet Stadium = Panthers 9 Draw 1 Broncos 11

Stats that matter

• Both sides are close when it comes to metres made per carry. This will have a major bearing on the match, as the forwards need to gain their ascendency in the match where possible. For the season, the Panthers are ranked in 11^th position with an average of 8.83m per carry, slightly ahead of the Broncos who make 8.72m and are ranked in 13^th.
• This game could be a very loose one in defence. The Broncos are surprisingly struggling for consistency on defence and they are missing an average of 30.9 tackles a match (15^th). The story doesn’t get any better for the Panthers though, they are ranked last in the competition and miss 31.0 tackles per game.
• In terms of pointsaveaged per game, the two sides are again close. The Broncos average less points scored, with 18.5 (11^th) to the Panthers 19.8 per match (8^th). In saying that, they are better at holding their opponents, conceding 19.6 points (9^th) compared to the Panthers 21.9 (=11^th) allowed. Don’t be fooled too much though, in their last 5 games, the average amount of points the Panthers have conceded is 34.4 per game.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Panthers $2.20 Broncos $1.70
Centrebet = Panthers $2.12 Broncos $1.75
Sportsbet = Panthers $2.12 Broncos $1.75
Betfair= Panthers $2.12 Broncos $1.83

Verdict

Returning back to their home ground after a strong display over the Warriors will certainly help the Panthers. However you have to look at the circumstances leading into this game. They are going to struggle having to back up from a Sunday game, on top of a trip back from New Zealand. Compare that to the Broncos, who have had a 7-day turn around and only have a trip down to Sydney to worry them. Travelling out to Penrith is hardly a difficult task but the Panthers will be ready to make the Broncos work. Unfortunately, as much as I have enjoyed watching them play, I think that winning this match may be beyond them. It was a great effort last week by them but this will be a different test for them. In that match, the Warriors were well off their best and failed to force mistakes in defence from the Panthers. The Broncos have been disappointing this season, but they have slightly improved in recent weeks as their season hangs in the balance. They should be too strong for the Panthers and the margin of victory should be comfortable enough to keep the Panthers out of reach.

Suggested Bet

Broncos -2.5 @ $1.90

Bucking Broncos = Broncos 13+ @ $3.60 – Sure, the Broncos will be made to work for this victory but the average amount of points the Panthers have conceded in the last few weeks is hard to go past. The Broncos can score points when needed and may take advantage of the fatigued Panthers players. It will not be a complete blowout and the Broncos may only just get to this margin of victory in the closing minutes of the match.

Off to a flyer = Broncos Try (first scoring play) @ $1.95 – In their last 4 outings, the Panthers have only managed to score the first try in a game just once. In the same period of time, the Broncos have scored 3 times, meaning that their chances of opening the scoring here offers an opportunity to invest money with confidence.

St George-Illawarra Dragons v Wests Tigers

It was great timing by the NRL this week to rename the trophy, the “Proven Summons Cup”, just in time for the 50^th anniversary of the famous image that was taken following the 1963 Grand Final between the St George Dragons and Western Suburbs Magpies. Sadly, neither team exists as a separate entity as they were “encouraged” to merge following the Super League war. Regardless, this iconic image of two greats of the game will forever be immortalised. If this hadn’t happened, there is no doubt that the interest around this game would’ve been minimal. Both sides are out of contention for the Finals and their form this season has hardly warranted a second thought. Their title aspirations ended a long time ago and now they are just playing for pride and to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon. Parramatta seemed destined to win it for the second year in a row but as both sides will head into this game on 16 points, a win will offer the opportunity to move a step away from the bottom of the table. Around all of the celebrations of the 1963 match, the game heads back to one of its traditional homes, the SCG. This will surely motivate fans to travel to the game as well as the chance to watch all three grades run out and play their matches on the hallowed turf. If this wasn’t the case, fans of both sides would find it very hard to get involved at all. The off-field issues are compounding for both sides, however the questions around their coach that the Dragons are having seem to be light compared to what the Tigers are dealing with. There is no harmony between the two parties involved in this joint venture and it is not making for pleasant viewing. On top of this, you also have the doubt around Benji Marshall and his inclusion in the team; and a horror injury toll that is not making things any easier to deal with. The Tigers will sigh with relief once this season is over because it is arguably the worst in their short history. It hasn’t been sunny over at Kograh either but the Dragons have managed to be more competitive than their opponents in this game. They had victory snapped from their clutches in the last play against the Sharks and they will be desperate to get win here. They too are going through injury troubles but both sides will know the value that a victory can have on the entire organization. Try telling the players that there is little to play for, I guess that we are going to see which team really wants this victory to try and finish their poor season on a relatively high note.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

There are only a few changes for the Dragons this week and even those are positional. In the centres, Daniel Vidot moves back to the wing and CharlyRunciman is named to start in the centres. It was sad to hear during the week that their regular centre, Matt Cooper has finally succumbed to all of his injuries and has decided to retire. He has been a great servant for the game and despite missing majority of this season; he will be remembered as a strong defender and a reliable player. On the bench, Bronson Harrison has been named in jersey 17, like he was last week, in place of Josh Drinkwater. Craig Garvey has also been named, but he features as the 18^th man and will likely miss out on selection in the final team. The Dragons were strong against the Sharks last week but still made a few crucial errors that highlighted how far they have declined. They had several opportunities to shut the Sharks out of the contest and will certainly not want to hand the Tigers the same chances

Wests Tigers

After another disappointing showing, the Tigers will try to salvage something from this game against the Dragons. As has been the case for majority of the seaon, the Tigers have suffered another injury. This week, Blake Aysford has been ruled out and this has forced Potter to named Bodene Thompson in the centres. This is probably not the ideal move as Thompson is a noted back rower, but it is a sign of the injury crisis they are currently experiencing. The forwards remain the same but on the bench, Matt Bell gains another start after his late inclusion last week. It was Jack Buchanan that was left out last week, as was Thompson, while Masada Iosefa has been relegated back to 18^th man. Shaun Spence will also join him in jersey 19 and is likely to miss out. There are plenty of calls around for the Tigers to drop Benji Marshall but they have persisted with him here. With 3 games left in the season, he appears set to see out the year but his current form is helping his chances. It should be noted that the Tigers applied for two of their youngsters to be granted permission from the salary cap auditor to play in this game. This means that they are thinking of playing them in this match and their inclusion in the team would no doubt change their dynamic.

Recent History

Overall =Dragons 14 Tigers 12

Last 5 games =Dragons 2 Tigers 3

At The SCG = Dragons 1 Tigers 0

Stats that matter

• It is a sorry story for both sides in terms of their stats for the season and the key for finding a winner in this match may just be the average amount of points scored and conceded in the last 5 games. In that period, the Tigers have scored an average of 15 points, while conceding 35.6. As for the Dragons, they conceded an average of 25.4 and scored 20.4.
• The Dragons still have a relatively strong defensive structure that depends on missing minimal tackles. In this area they are ranked 4^th and only miss 25.0 tackles each outing. As for the Tigers, it is a sorry state of affairs and they miss an average of 30.1 tackles each match.
• A lot has been made about the efforts of the Tigers and perhaps their forwards could take some responsibility. They average just 8.68m per carry of the ball (15^th) and they are a fair way behind the Dragons who are in 10^th, with 8.91m each possession.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Dragons $1.40 Tigers $3.00
Centrebet = Dragons $1.41 Tigers $3.00
Sportsbet = Dragons $1.41 Tigers $3.00
Betfair= Dragons $1.40 Tigers $3.15

Verdict

Being very unmotivated by this game, it sure is difficult to focus enough attention onto it in order to make a selection. However, there is still a chance to make some money from this game. On the surface, the Tigers appear lost for answers. Their attack against the Roosters was disgraceful and no one was willing to put their hand up and take ownership of the game. I was expecting the Dragons to be flat last week, especially without Dugan, who was their only attacking spark. They were anything but that and they still rely very heavily on their defence to get them through matches. The biggest question around this match will be whether or not the Tigers will be able to lift to another level. They have a lot of improvement in them and if their youngsters are included, they certainly come into calculations. Then again, they have been disappointing and the Dragons will smell blood in this game. When they do, it could again get ugly for the Tigers.

Suggested Bet

Dragons -6.5 @ $1.90

Slaying the Tigers = Dragons 13+ @ $2.70 – As stated above, the Dragons will realise that they are a real chance of winning this game. When they do, the Tigers will have a tough battle on their hands trying to hold this side. The Dragons will not be afraid to throw caution into the wind and this will make them dangerous anywhere on the field.

Stand them up = Chase Stanley FTS and/or LTS @ $13 – Stanley has had his trouble this season with injury. When he has been on the field, he has been dangerous. His chances of scoring first in this game will also be enhanced by the opportunity to face either Thompson or Simona, who can be caught out of position.

Gold Coast Titans v New Zealand Warriors

After the completion of the 3pm game, NRL action heads north of the boarder to Queensland for two cracking games. The first of those kicks off at 5:30pm with the Titans hosting the Warriors. There is everything to play for and a loss for either side could be detrimental to their Finals aspirations. Heading into this weekend, the Titans sit in 8^th spot and are aiming to stay there after they were unable to overcome the Cowboys. It was a disappointing effort, but eventually fatigue from their MNF win against the Bulldogs in Round 22 got the better of them. It was a quick turnaround for their squad and they will be fresher here, with a few more days to prepare. It was also a disappointing display for the Warriors as they crashed at home to the Panthers. That loss could’ve prematurely brought an end to their season without them knowing it. They are 2-points behind the Titans but they are in 13^th position on the ladder due to a horror point’s difference. Another loss would certainly mean the end to their season, as they would only be a mathematical chance of grabbing a Final’s berth. It will be a major disappointment if they were unable to play Finals football because they are a very talented team. In the same instance, so are the Titans. They have a strong first-half of the season to thank for keeping them in contention; if not, their 3 wins out of their last 9 games would’ve gotten the better of them. There is another code of football taking place at the same time, but this contest has a lot more riding on it and it promises to be a lot more exciting. If you can, make sure you’re somewhere that you can watch this game because it promises to be a thrilling game of rugby league.

Gold Coast Titans

The Titans were boosted last week by the inclusion of William Zillman at fullback, which caused a reshuffle in personnel, namely David Mead moving back to the wing. The same changes are carried over here but they will lift to another level with the recovery and inclusion of Albert Kelly at halfback. This has allowed Aidan Sezer to move back to 5/8 and Ashley Harrison has returned to lock. This has seen a change in the forwards; with Greg Bird moving to second row and Ben Ridge is relegated to the bench. Ryan James was again a late starter for Luke Douglas; and whether or not this will be carried over here remains to be seen. Also on the bench, Matt Srama has recovered from injury and takes Sam Irwin’s spot as the utility. His time will be limited and in his absence, Beau Falloon has again proven his worth as a footballer. It should be noted that Bird is also in some doubt, so make sure that you check the final lineup of the Titans. He is an influential player and a lot of the success of the Titans depends on his inclusion in the team.

New Zealand Warriors

The Warriors would’ve been disappointed with their efforts last week and here, Elliot has made a few changes that will hopefully shock his team into action. They have been vulnerable on their edges in recent outings and Ngani Laumape has paid the price. He has been named as 18^th man this week and in his place, Jerome Ropati grabs a start. In the forwards, there is a slight reshuffle that has forced Feleti Mateo back to the bench. With this, Elijah Taylor pushes up into the second row and Todd Lowrie is named to start at lock. Ben Matulino is named on the bench and Suaia Matagi takes his place in the starting side, but this is nothing new as it was how they started last week. The Warriors are getting to a desperate stage in their season and they are almost on the brink of having their season end prematurely. Their destiny is in their hands and it will require a complete team performance to get them over the line.

Recent History

Overall =Titans 6 Warriors 7

Last 5 games =Titans 5 Warriors 0

At Skilled Park = Titans 4 Warriors 2

Stats that matter

• Given the might of the Warriors pack, it is surprising to see the Titans average a greater number of metres per carry of the ball. They are ranked in 8^th position with an average of 9.00m, well ahead of the Warriors who are in 14^th, with an average of 8.72m.
• There is nothing between the two sides in terms of missed tackles, but that is by no means a reflection on how well they have executed it. The Titans are miss an average of 29.1 tackles per match (11^th) and are only slightly ahead of their opponents, who average 29.7 misses (12^th).
• At the end of the day, the Titans may just get the Warriors based on the average amount of points they score per match. They are able to score an average of 20.3 per match (7^th) but are only just slightly ahead of the Warriors, who manage to get 19.6 (9^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Titans $1.80 Warriors $2.05
Centrebet = Titans $1.83 Warriors $2.02
Sportsbet = Titans $1.83 Warriors $2.00
Betfair= Titans $1.78 Warriors $2.12

Verdict

Ok take 2! If you are reading this for the second time and thinking that it is slightly different, then you are right. This is the first time that a change has compelled me to rewrite the “Verdict” and “Suggested Bet”. Mainly because I believe that the omission of Bird and Zillman from the Titans team is enough to sway this contest in the Warriors favor. The remaining players in the team will have their work cut out trying to hold the Warriors without those two players. The vacancy that Bird leaves is just another hole in the defensive line and his aggression and leadership is vital to their success. This should open up the middle of the field for the Warriors and the Titans will now have to weaken one edge to strengthen the fullback position. This isn’t ideal but it is something that they are just going to have to deal with. I still believe it will be a very close contest, however now, the Warriors should be able to capture a victory.

Suggested Bet

Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.75

Wary Warriors = Warriors 1-12 @ $3.10 – Believing that the game will still be close, this is the suitable option to take. The Warriors will need to find something that was missing from their effort and execution last week and that may take a little time. Also, backing up from a Sunday game may limit their attacking potency.

Flash Gordon = Kevin Gordon FTT @ $4 – Get ready for this; Gordon has scored first 6 times for the Titans in their past 9 games. Only once though has his try been the first of the game so rather than go for broke, lets just focus on him opening the Titans scoring account.

North Queensland Cowboys v Newcastle Knights

The concluding game on Super Saturday continues to head north, all the way to Townsville as the Cowboys face off against the Knights. Much like the game beforehand, there is plenty riding on the outcome of this match. This time, it will be the travelling team that will head into the round in 7^th position. Many people expected more of the Knights this year and it is discouraging to see them having to fight so hard for their fate. It has been a matter of being unable to put things together on a consistent basis, more so being incapable of winning on the road. This has them where they are and ironically enough, it has been a similar story for their opponents. In saying that, the Cowboys have failed to play to the same level that we have seen from the Knights. I suggested a few weeks ago that their season was all but done and dusted but 3 wins in their past 4 games have rocketed them back into contention. You cannot help but think that they don’t deserve to be there on their form this season but for as long as they are playing, they will aim to keep their chances thriving. It would be interesting to see them make that stage of the season after only having sacked their coach a few weeks ago. At the moment, things are working for them and when that is happening, Thurston and co are looking electric. The Knights will have their hands full trying to contain them, especially with their current injury toll. There is a lot more than 2-points on the line and the impact that this game will have will affect more than just the teams playing in this fixture. With so much on the line, one team is going to have to rise to the occasion and prove what a win means to them.

North Queensland Cowboys

With their Finals hopes amazingly still alive, the Cowboys appear to have lifted to another level. This is making their play entertaining and difficult for their opponents to counteract. This week, the only change to the side will be on the bench, as the match review committee suspended Ashton Sims for a high tackle. Ricky Thorby has earned a recall to the team and Ethan Lowe has also been called into the side, but this time it will be as 18^th man and he is likely to miss out. I don’t know where this attacking ability has been all season for the Cowboys but what they are producing at the moment has a lot to do with the pressure that has been reduced upon Thurston. Matt Bowen has received a new lease on his playing career and the forwards are finally winning the battle in the middle of the field.

Newcastle Knights

There were a few changes again for the Knights last week in the lead into their match against the Storm. Unfortunately for them, majority of their problems are being hampered by injury. Beau Scott made a recovery in time to be included in that game but it will take another performance before he regains his match fitness. His inclusion forced Chris Houston back to the bench. He will again start the match from there, along with Neville Costigan, who will try to make another comeback from injury. Alex McKinnon will start the match at lock, due to the ongoing issues related to Jeremy Smith’s knee. Craig Gower has not been included on the bench but it wouldn’t be a Wayne Bennett coached team unless there was a late surprise or two named.

Recent History

Overall =Cowboys 12 Knights 17

Last 5 games =Cowboys 3 Knights 2

At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 7 Knights 6

Stats that matter

• It was amazing to see the Cowboys prevail last week given their poor play at certain points. They completed just 57.9% of their sets, while committing 15 errors. If they are hoping for late charge to the Finals, they can ill-afford another performance like that.
• The Knights play a very disciplined brand of football and they give themselves every opportunity with the ball. They average a 72.2% completion rate (2^nd) and commit just 10 errors per match (2^nd).
• Defence is what will win this game and despite their run of form this season, the Cowboys have remained fairly consistent in terms of the points they are conceding. They are ranked in 6^th with 18.3 allowed but will have their work cut out scoring against the Knights, who concede 17.6 points (5^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.57 Knights $2.45
Centrebet = Cowboys $1.57 Knights $2.45
Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.57 Knights $2.45
Betfair= Cowboys $1.61 Knights $2.58

Verdict

There are several factors impacting upon this game and ultimately, the decision does not become any easier when you assess all of the options. The Knights have been poor on the road this season and the Cowboys are a superior team when playing at home. The Knights also have a quick turn around from a very physical encounter against the Storm to contend with. That is going to sap a lot of their energy and perhaps give the Cowboys the edge. The boys from Townsville will also have plenty of confidence from their last start victory over the Titans on home soil. It is no surprise to see them installed as favorites, although the difference between the two sides is not a true indication of how close this game is. I am leaning towards the Cowboys getting the victory here, however I am very wary after being burnt (several times!) by them in the past. This match is going to be a very close contest and I expect it to go down right to wire.

Suggested Bet

Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.90

Brawling Cowboys = Cowboys 1-12 @ $3 –If the Cowboys are to win, it will be by a narrow margin. The Knights have a fairly strong defensive line and despite losing to the Storm last week 13+, it was a field goal that put the “icing on the cake”. With a lot to play for, it would astonishing if this margin got out to 13+.

Opening on the right foot = Cowboys Try (first scoring play) @ $1.90 – Since their return to form, the Cowboys have been a very difficult team to face. In their last 3 outings, they have scored the opening try in every match. They know what it takes to win and even more promising is the fact that 2 of those games were played at their home ground.

Canberra Raiders v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

All eyes will be on the nations capital this Sunday as the Raiders look to go on with life after Dave Furner. Amid some very cloudy circumstances, the board sacked Furner late on Tuesday afternoon. It has emerged that a mutiny created by the senior players at the Raiders may’ve been behind this decision but either way, it is not an ideal situation for them to be in. Generally speaking though, a team that sacks their coach has a fairly decent record in the weeks following the decision. It will be interesting to see if they can bounce back here because they are looking lost for answers and this could be the spark that they need to keep their Finals hopes alive. By no means will it be an easy task in overcoming the Sea Eagles, especially after their disappointing effort last week against the Bulldogs. They failed to hold them out early when the Bulldogs had a mountain of possession in their favor. As for the Sea Eagles, they had their 6-gsme winning streak halted at the hands of the Rabbitohs. Unlike the Raiders, the Sea Eagles started the game strongly at looked cemented in a good position (leading 10-6) heading into the break. However after the rest, they were unable to score another point and the Rabbitohs appeared to lift to another level, pulling off some great attacking tries. Some would argue that a few “50/50 calls” went the Rabbitohs way and honestly, it is hard to disagree with that. Then again, their 70.9% completion rate and 10 errors was no match for their opponents 81.6% and only 8 errors. Still, the momentum that Manly have built before this game would not have disappeared just yet. They are still a strong outfit that relies heavily upon a physical defensive line that is not afraid of taking the battle to their opponents. It is never an easy trip to make down to Canberra and the Raiders may just have something special in store. With their season hanging in the balance, something like that is needed; otherwise they are heading for an early holiday.

Canberra Raiders

My first thought when seeing the team this week was who actually selected this team. Given Furner was sacked on Tuesday when the teams were due out, it is a little puzzling with all of the changes. Either way, a message has been sent to majority of the team that their sub-par performances will not be tolerated any longer. This week, Reece Robinson is reinstalled as fullback, with Anthony Milford moving to 5/8. There has been plenty made about his request to return home to Brisbane but this week his focus will be on replacing the injured Terry Campese. Remaining in the backline, Bill Tupou will make his first start at his new club in place of Blake Ferguson and Sami Sauiluma replaces Jack Wighton on the wing. Unfortunately, he has again been injured and is facing a tough period in the off-season in order to recover. In the forwards, Brett White is named to start in the front row, in place of Dane Tilse, who moves back to the bench. Joel Edwards has also been relegated back to the interchange and Paul Vaughan has been rewarded for his strong form and will start at lock. Glen Buttriss and Shaun Berrigan swap roles, with the latter now starting the game. Tom Learoyd-Lahrs also returns from injury and will wear jersey 17. Sam Williams has been named as 18^th man but he will likely to miss out on this game.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

The news that Manly had hoped for last week came to fruition, as Anthony Watmough was able to take his place in the team. It wasn’t the return they were looking for as he reinjured his knee in several tackles, namely the Jeff Lima incident. He has been named here, yet there is a large cloud of doubt over his chances of taking the field. This has forced Jamie Buhrer back to the bench but he would be called back into the starting side if Watmough were unable to take his place. Just like last week, James Hasson has been relegated to 18^th man but his situation is very similar to Buhrer and depends on the fitness of Watmough. Apart from that, the Sea Eagles maintain the same team and they will be desperate to put to be any rumors around disharmony within their roster. A story emerged on Thursday that there was an apparent rift within the team but this was quickly squashed by those involved with the Sea Eagles and it appears as though the story was a complete fabrication. It is certainly not an issue with their play and for now, they need to continue to focus on that.

Recent History

Overall = Raiders 17 Draw 1 Sea Eagles 27

Last 5 games = Raiders 1 Sea Eagles 4

At Canberra Stadium = Raiders 5 Sea Eagles 6

Stats that matter

• The Raiders were again their won worst enemies last week, continually allowing the Bulldogs to control the game. Their completion rate was a dismal 61.9%, they committed 13 errors and missed a total of 29 tackles.
• It is going to be a great battle between the two forward packs. The Sea Eagles are very aggressive yet surprisingly make slightly fewer metres per carry of the ball than the Raiders. They are ranked in 9^th; making 8.94m each carry versus the Raiders who are in 7^th, with an average of 9.00m.
• The Raiders just leak too many points to really be considered as a genuine chance this season. They are ranked in 14^th position in the competition in this area and concede an average of 23.8 points. This is vastly different to the Sea Eagles, who are in 2^nd position and allow just 14.2 points each week.

 

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Raiders $3.00 Sea Eagles $1.40
Centrebet = Raiders $3.00 Sea Eagles $1.41
Sportsbet = Raiders $2.95 Sea Eagles $1.42
Betfair = Raiders $3.00 Sea Eagles $1.42

Verdict

I am very wary of the Raiders performing here following the sacking of their coach. All too often you see a team lift following such an announcement, take a look at the Cowboys and their recent run of form following the announcement of Neil Henry’s sacking. In saying that, the Sea Eagles are a quality outfit that has enjoyed success in recent years over the Raiders. It is never an easy trip to make, but the Sea Eagles appear to fair better down in the nations capital than most. Furthermore, they will be out to prove a point following a disappointing loss to the Rabbitohs. All signs point to them winning this match but I am expecting a much-improved effort by the Raiders. They are on the brink of missing out on the Finals and need a massive effort to get a win here. They will need to take the game to the Sea Eagles early and ensure that they are the ones with majority of possession that allows them to be in a winning position. It is a very tricky contest to select but the fatigue that the Sea Eagles will have to battle may play a factor, as will the extra motivation and position changes for the Raiders.

Suggested Bet

Raiders +8.5 @ $1.85

Wings clipped = Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.90 – The bookies are still suggesting that Manly will win this game comfortably but I am not so sure. The Raiders have everything to play for and while not possessing the same class as their opponents; their desire should bring out the best in them.

Boy Jorge = Jorge Taufua FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – Taufua has been in sublime form all season and his efforts on the edge have earned Manly some much needed points. The Raiders do not necessarily have the strongest defence on the edges and the Sea Eagles will look to exploit this at every opportunity. Even more encouraging is the fact that Taufua has been FTS once in the last three games and LTS twice.

Melbourne Storm v Parramatta Eels

The 3pm “match of the day” heads south this week to Melbourne, as the Storm host the woeful Parramatta Eels. It has been a long season for all teams but those ones languishing at the bottom of the table are hoping that the pain will be over soon enough. Possessing talent and class within their roster, this has been no issue for the Storm as they sit in 3^rd spot on  the competition ladder heading into this round. They are perhaps hoping for a slip up from either of the teams ahead of them that will open up the opportunity to grab home field advantage in the Finals. The post-Origin form slump is now a distant thought and they are looking very dangerous as the business end of the season draws near. They know what it takes to win the big games and at the end of the day, that could just be the difference between them and one of the other top teams. Winning hasn’t come all that often for the Eels and they are constantly reminded of just how poorly they have been this season through their standing on the table. This was always going to be a work in progress to rebuild this wonder club of the 80’s, but it is emerging that the task will take a lot longer than they would like. There has already been a “shake up” within the team in terms of contracts and several players will be without a club for next season. This was said to be unfair to some extent but in the same instance, the players have hardly proven their worth. Controversy is never far away for them and the recent issues around Chris Sandow have further dampened their “efforts” this season. This game is shaping up as a “one-sided” contest and you would be insane to think that the Eels are a chance of winning this game. Then again, this great game of rugby league can always shock fans but it make take some divine intervention to overturn this outcome. Either way, there is a chance to make some money from this fixture and that’s exactly where my interest in this game will settle.

Melbourne Storm

For the third week in a row, the Storm have kept exactly the same team. They have been terrific in their recent performances and even a tough trip to Newcastle to face a desperate Knights team was not going to slow their momentum. They have gone back to focusing on the basics and allowing everything else to take care of itself. It must be pleasing for coach Craig Bellamy to see them functioning like this because when they do, they are a threat to any team that they face. The job is not over just yet and as defending Premiers, they will not go down without a fight.

Parramatta Eels

The unfortunate news for the Eels is that they have again lost Jarryd Hayne to injury. The severity of it is not known but you would hardly think that he would risk it given their current predicament. As a result, Ben Roberts has been moved from the centres and back into the halves, with Vai Toutai moving from the wing to take Roberts’ place. This has opened up a vacant spot there and Semi Radradra is named to make another start. Not much else changes for the Eels, despite looking like a different side on the bench, the only difference will be the numbers that the players will wear. Daniel Harrison has been named as 18^th man for the travelling trip but is likely to miss out on selection in the final team. You can see that the Eels are hanging out for the end of the season and they will be desperate to get through the next 3 games as quick as possible and aim towards building a strong case for next season.

Recent History

Overall = Storm 15 Eels 11

Last 5 games = Storm 3 Eels 2

At AAMI Stadium = Storm 1 Eels 0

Stats that matter

• The Storm really controlled the game last week against the Knights and despite receiving minimal possession in the opening half, they were still able to complete 83.3% of their sets and make just 6 errors. Alarmingly though, they missed 48 tackles but were able to scramble very well in cover defence.
• Creativity in attack is nonexistent at the Eels currently and their average only 3.3 line breaks per game (14^th). As a result, they average just 13.8 points (16^th) and will have a hard time containing the Storm. They average 4.5 line breaks (=5^th), allowing them to score an average of 23.5 points per game (4^th).
• Defence isn’t any better either for the Eels and may indicate just how much the Storm are going to win by. The Eels concede an average of 28.6 points per match (16^th), the worst in the league. On the other hand, the Storm are difficult to score against and allow 15.2 (3^rd).

 

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.03 Eels $13.00
Centrebet = Storm $1.03 Eels $14.00
Sportsbet = Storm $1.03 Eels $14.00
Betfair = Storm $1.05 Eels $18.00

Verdict

The answer is very simple in this game. The Storm will win and it is just a matter of selecting by how much that will be. I find it intriguing that in the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the Eels have been able to win twice. Perhaps they are somewhat of a bogey team for the Storm or they  struggle to get motivated against a lowly ranked opponent. Bellamy is going to have his squad focused though because if they were to draw level with the Rabbitohs or Roosters, they would required a superior points difference to gain 2^nd spot. A game like this is the perfect opportunity to positively effect on that area of the game. Majority of the bookies have selected a 27.5 line in favor of the Eels but I think they may need a little more than this. The Storm are firing on all cylinders and you only have to look back a few weeks to see the scoring potential they have within their side. If this is designed at encouraging people to invest money, then it has done the trick. They are hanging out for the end of the season and I fear that this margin may get very, very ugly for the Eels.

Suggested Bet

Storm -27.5 @ $1.80

Pick your own line = Storm -38.5 @ $3.25 – You will have to search through a few different sites for this option but upon my own quest, I settled on this option as the best fit for my selection. The Storm should easily dispose of the Eels by at least 40 points and the value on offer here is plenty.

Blairing success = Maurice Blair FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – There is no real pattern emerging for the Storm and their try scorers. However their left hand side is very strong and they are happy to go there with every opportunity. Blair was in terrific form earlier is the season and returning slowly back to match fitness with enhance his chances here of crossing the line either first or last.

Cronulla Sharks v Sydney Roosters

The final game this weekend is of course on Monday night as the Sharks play host to the competition leaders, the Roosters. I guess we are finally going to see what the Roosters are really made of. They are undoubtedly a quality football team but have benefitted from a favorable draw this season. In saying that, you can only play what is put in front of you each week and they have won several games in fashionable circumstances. Things seem to be working very well for them at the moment and so far, there has been little that has worried them. They should be congratulated for where they currently sit, because it is their own hard work and determination that has got them there. A dominating display last week against the Tigers is hardly the ideal preparation for September although it was a vital two points that will bring them closer to wining the minor Premiership. They will be the first to tell you though that the job is not done just yet. Winning the premiership will be the big picture for them and they will need quality form running into the Finals series. Their opponents in this game are just coming into their own, with a few recent wins cementing their position in the Top 8. It is a pleasing effort to say the least considering everything that has gone on relating to their club this season. They have attempted to continually remove themselves from the situation and let their efforts on the field do the talking. With different news stories breaking almost daily over this issue, a positive team environment is also benefitting them. They were lucky to get away with a win last week against their rivals the Dragons. However at this point in the season, the quality sides are going to find away to win, regardless of how poorly they play. Aside from all of that, they have played some enticing football and will relish the opportunity given to them here to send a message to the rest of the competition. Sure, the Roosters are leading the competition, but I am looking forward to seeing what the Sharks have to offer up to them. This game is a great way to finish the round and the intensity in this fixture will only wet our appetites for the approaching Finals series.

Cronulla Sharks

The Sharks are boosted this week by the return of Wade Graham to their lineup. He has had a few troubles this year with injury but when he has been on the field, his play has been great. His inclusion in the side at second row has forced Jason Bukuya back to the bench. Andrew Fifita has also been named to start, after coming of the bench in last week’s game. Chris Heighington will also start the game on the side of the field and will have to bide his time before being called upon. The only other change for the Sharks is the Sam Tagatese moving to 18^th man. It is a shame that he is likely to miss this game but it does highlight the Sharks depth in the forwards. When they have all players fit, it is very hard to find room for all of their mountain men.

Sydney Roosters

The Roosters had a few late changes heading into last week, which included a reshuffle in their backline. This week they have reverted back to the team that was originally named. This includes Mitchell Aubusson in the centres, rather than Samisoni Langi. This move has again opened up the opportunity for Aidan Guerra to be called into the team and he will have the chance to make his spot in the side a regular one. On the bench, Luke O’Donnell has been named but he will be missing through suspension. As he took Tinirau Arona’s spot last week, he is the man that will be likely to be called into the side. Apart from that, not much else changes for the Roosters. They have been blessed this year with injury and suspension and it has allowed them to build consistency that is benefitting them at the business end of the season.

Recent History

Overall = Sharks 27 Draw 2 Roosters 55

Last 5 games = Sharks 2 Draw 1 Roosters 2

At Remondis Stadium = Sharks 15 Draw 2 Roosters 23

Stats that matter

• The Sharks did everything possible last game to lose the match. They had only completed 51.2% of their sets, made 20 errors and only created 2 line breaks. Compare this to the Roosters who had a completion rate of 78.9%, made just 8 errors and broke the Tigers apart for 10 line breaks.
• The Roosters have the best defensive structure in the league currently and you only have to look at their stats to see that. They average just 21.4 missed tackles per game (1^st) and concede an average of 12 points (1^st). It has been made public that they do not mind giving away the odd penalty or two in order to reset their defensive line and this has them ranked in 16^th for penalties conceded (8.4 per game).
• The Sharks also rely heavily on their defence to win games, as they do not score many points. For the season, they only average 18.1 (12^th) compared to the Roosters 27.2 per game (1^st). If they are not careful, they may find themselves having to chase down points in this contest.

 

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Sharks $3.25 Roosters $1.35
Centrebet = Sharks $3.05 Roosters $1.40
Sportsbet = Sharks $3.05 Roosters $1.40
Betfair = Sharks $3.25 Roosters $1.39

Verdict

It feels as though I am repeating myself several times this week, but this game is a really close contest. The Sharks are a gaining momentum each week and they are going to be fired up for this game. They have a chance to send a message to the rest of the competition that they are a force to be reckoned with. However the Roosters are going to be ready for the contest. They are the competition leaders for a reason and it will take a massive effort from the Sharks to turn the tide. In saying that, I believe that this will be one of the best opportunities they will have to beat them this season. They were embarrassed by them last time and will have added motivation heading into this game. The odds are not a true reflection of how close this game actually is. They are a very strong football team and I believe that they will be very difficult to beat on their home ground. The Roosters are yet to be pushed too far and they may be caught off guard. I also think that the Roosters may need to drop a game to refocus their attention in the run home. I believe the Sharks can grab a win here, but they will have to work very hard for it. That is not to suggest that the Roosters are incapable of winning this game. Whichever team grabs victory will do so by a very small margin. This game is going to be a very close contest and it will probably not be decided until the closing minutes of the match.

Suggested Bet

Sharks +6.5 @ $1.90

Tri your luck = Either team under 6.5 points @ $3.10 – As stated above, this game is going to be close. So if you cannot make your mind up, then consider taking this option. Both sides are in with a chance of winning this game and it would be surprising if there were a blowout in the victory.

Author

I have followed Rugby League since I was young enough to watch it and growing up in Sydney, it was inevitable. I will always make it my business to watch all 8 NRL fixtures per week and follow it with more than just passion. During my playing career, I have played at several representative levels, with and against current players. I began writing previews on NRL games early on in 2012 and really found a passion within this. I enjoy listening to various people and their opinions on the game, and then forming my own. Coupled together with another passion, gambling, I soon learnt that there was a market out there for more than the rugby league diehards. Hopefully I can pass on my knowledge of the game to help you win some cash.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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