Rabbitohs (2nd) v Broncos (10th)
The Rabbitohs flexed their muscles last week with a dominating performance over the competition leaders, the Sea Eagles. It was a game that was always going to be a measure of their development, after failing in previous attempts to peak at the right time of the season. Aside from Round 1, it was probably their strongest performance of the season and one that has them now positioned as premiership favourites. It was a promising performance, but questions are still lingering about their halves and performance against all teams. The Broncos also produced a shock, hammering the Bulldogs 41-10 last Friday. It was a welcome return to form, after being on a 2-game losing streak. However they are not out of rouble just yet, sitting 10th on the competition ladder and 2-points away from the Top 8. Each game is extremely important for them and they will be desperate to produce another upset, this time on the road.
Team News
Rabbitohs = Thomas Burgess comes into the starting team in the front row to replace his suspended twin brother. Luke Burgess, Bryson Goodwin and Joe Picker are also included on a 6-man bench.
Broncos = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Rabbitohs 7 Draw 1 Broncos 21
Last 5 matches = Rabbitohs 2 Broncos 3
At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 1 Broncos 0
Verdict
Both teams were impressive last week and are expected to build upon that effort in this match. The Rabbitohs are due for a slight dip in performance in their run home but this shouldn’t be the match that it occurs in. The Broncos have had difficulties maintaining consistency in 2014, winning only 2 of their past 5 matches and 5 of their last 10. When they do lose, it is generally close; losing only 20% by a 13+ margin. Consequently, the Rabbitohs have a 92% winning rate by a 13+ margin and that is too much to overlook. Play it safe though and take on the line as opposed to picking a clear margin of victory.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs -8.5 @ $2
Eels (9th) v Bulldogs (8th)
This is arguably one of the biggest matches of the weekend and could mean a lot more at the conclusion of the season. The Bulldogs were unable to stop their losing streak on the weekend against the Broncos, stretching to 4-consecutive games with their 41-10 loss. Suspensions and injuries are making things tougher for them and they desperately need something to change. On the other hand, the Eels are on a 3-game winning streak, mainly on the back of the form around Jarryd Hayne. He is carrying this team at the moment and in tougher matches, they will need more than him to stand up and control a match.
Team News
Eels = Vai Toutai is back on the wing, while Fuifui Moimoi is named again at prop, after starting from the bench last week. Tepai Moeroa is named to return in the second row and Pauli Pauli is back on the bench, replacing Peni Terepo.
Bulldogs = With Josh Reynolds again suspended; Moses Mbye is named at 5/8. Aiden Tolman is into the starting side and Reni Maitua comes onto the bench, both changes caused by the ankle injury to Sam Kasiano.
History
Overall = Eels 58 Draw 5 Bulldogs 72
Last 5 matches = Eels 1 Bulldogs 4
At ANZ Stadium = Eels 9 Bulldogs 12
Verdict
Form an confidence are a major part of winning in rugby league and at the moment, the Bulldogs posses neither. Working in their favour however, is the fact that the Eels are backing up from a road trip to Darwin for a match that was on Saturday and the game is being played at ANZ Stadium, the Bulldogs home ground. If the match had been at Parramatta, then the Eels would be strong favourites. It isn’t though and the Bulldogs are going to be spurred by the thought of breaking their 4-game losing streak. They also had numerous scoring opportunities turned down last week, suggesting that they can score points when it is needed most. This is going to be a close match, perhaps only being decided in the closing minutes.
Suggested Bet
Bulldogs +1.5 @ $1.85
High-flyer = Tim Lafai FTS and/or LTS @ $10 – His form has been exciting to say the least, proving that he can attack from anywhere on the field. With the extra Bulldogs runners attracting attention at the line, it may just free Lafai up one-on-one with an opponent in a try scoring position.
Raiders (15th) v Dragons (11th)
Considering the Dragons have only beaten the Raiders once in their past 10 matches, he thought of this match is enough to make any Dragons fan squirm. After a loss last week to the Panthers, they travel down to a ground where they have a 15% winning record over 13 matches. They are clinging to a very slight chance of making the Finals and will need to tighten up their defensive structure over 80-minues. If there were ever a time to overcome such a record, now would be it considering the current plight of the home side. They have only won 2 of their past 10 matches, with their victory over a month ago. A trip to Darwin last week to face the Eels will only make their preparations for this match increasingly difficult. They are only playing for pride at the moment and trying to avoid the wooden spoon is undoubtedly at the forefront of their minds.
Team News
Raiders = Unchanged.
Dragons = Gerard Beale shifts to fullback and Peter Mata’utia takes his vacant centre position. Tyson Frizell is added to the bench.
History
Overall = Raiders 16 Draw 1 Dragons 6
Last 5 matches = Raiders 5 Dragons 0
At GIO Stadium = Raiders 11 Dragons 2
Verdict
All good things come to an end and with the Raiders in a form slump, the time is right for the Dragons to strike. They were their own worst enemies last week and are capable of better efforts. A lot of things have changed at this club and a trip down to Canberra will not hold the same fears that it once did. In saying that, the Raiders are capable of producing a resilient performance on their home turf. However they are contending with a trip to Darwin last week and appear to be squad that is hanging out for the conclusion of the season. Weather conditions may play into their hands and the Dragons will not have everything their own way and at this stage of the season, a close match is expected between these two teams.
Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $3.10
Dodging Dugan = Josh Dugan FTS and/or LTS @ $10 – He was tipped last week based on his performances at WIN Stadium but failed to score. Now, he returns to the ground where he made a name for himself and with the home fans vocal, the best way for Dugan to silence them would be crossing the line for an important try in the match.
Storm (7th) v Sharks (16th)
The Storm were surprised in the closing minutes of their match against the Knights last week, to the point where Craig Bellamy voiced his opinion about the performance of the referees. It was also disappointing to the progress of their season, especially considering they were on a 3-game winning streak. Now, they need to get things back on track and continue to climb the competition ladder. The Sharks are proving to be a tough team to move past though, pushing the Warriors right until the end of their Round 22 match. Injuries have continued to mount though and now they are fielding a team that is short on quality players. The incoming players will have a point to prove, but they will have to lift to another level if they are to be competitive against a team that needs to win to maintain their spot in the Top 8.
Team News
Storm = Jordan McLean returns to the team on the extended bench.
Sharks = Paul Gallen is named, after missing out in similar circumstances last week. Tim Robinson and Matt Prior join him, while Michael Lichaa (starting) and Pat Politoni (bench) swap roles. Tinirau Arona drops back to the bench. Blake Ayshford is a slight chance of featuring, added to the extended bench.
History
Overall = Storm 17 Sharks 9
Last 5 matches = Storm 4 Sharks 1
At AAMI Stadium = Storm 4 Sharks 0
Verdict
If things go to plan in the opening stages of this match, the Storm could have everything their own way. The Sharks are a team that is put together to last them the remainder of the season. They may be competitive early, but their opponents are capable of running up a tally of points. Home ground advantage will work in their favour also, along with the fact that the Sharks have to travel to Melbourne on the back of a Sunday match in New Zealand. This limited preparation time will reduce their ability to build on-field combinations and it is appearing as though it could become ugly based upon the Sharks 66.6% losing rate by 13 or more points.
Suggested Bet
Storm 30+ @ $2.50
Fijian Flyer = Marika Koroibete FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – He has crossed first for the Storm twice out of the past 3 matches, but was unsuccessful last week. He will have an easier time this week against an opponent that lacks defensive strength. Expect him to go very close and should get over the line in this match at least once.
Tigers (12th) v Roosters (4th)
The Tigers were humiliated in Round 22 by the Cowboys, with 58-point loss concluding another stressful week for the struggling club. They are now on a 3-game losing streak that is increasing the pressure on the playing squad and coach. Like a few other teams, their Finals hopes are hanging by a thread, to the point where one more loss could spell the end of their season. The Roosters bounced back to form last week with a win over the Titans in MNF, albeit an unconvincing one. It was a scrappy performance that suggested that they are not back to their best, but are working hard to get there. With other “contending” teams beginning to make a strong statement, the time is now for the Premiers to do the same, especially with favourable games against lowly ranked opponents. Their best is yet to come and it is expected that they will continue to build momentum in coming weeks.
Team News
Tigers = Cory Paterson comes into the centres as Tim Simona is out with an injury. Keith Galloway is named to return, pushing Ava Seumanifagai back to the bench. Sitaleki Akauola will be alongside him on the interchange.
Roosters = Unchanged, but possible late changes after completely assessing the fitness of their squad following MNF.
History
Overall = Tigers 8 Roosters 16
Last 5 matches = Tigers 1 Roosters 4
At Leichhardt Oval = Tigers 2 Roosters 2
Verdict
Even with a short turn-around, the Roosters should be too strong for the Tigers. They are the superior team in this contest and the Tigers will have to improve dramatically to even push their opponents in this match. A few things are working in the home teams favour, along with a point to prove after last week, this match will be played on the hallowed turf of Leichhardt Oval. Regardless, the Tigers will have to control the opening minutes of this match to set an early standard. This season, the Tigers have lost 91% of their matches by 13+ points, while the Roosters have won 66.6% of their matches by the same margin. With a stat like that, the margin in favour of the visiting team is too good to overlook.
Suggested Bet
Roosters 13+ @ $1.90
Jet boots = Michael Jennings FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – He scored last in Round 22 and first in Round 21, making his first two matches back from injury a successful one. The Tigers are down on quality centres and the Roosters left edge is proving difficult for any team to handle.
Knights (14th) v Warriors (6th)
The Knights pulled off a miraculous victory over the Storm last week, riding a wave of emotion and hometown support to get them there. They still sit in a negative position on the table and are only playing for pride. Regardless, wins like the one last week will give the players a boost in confidence that will make them a dangerous team to face. The Warriors were successful in their endeavours last week, notwithstanding the fact that it was an ugly victory; they picked up vital competition points. Sitting 6th on the ladder gives them hope of finishing the season off strongly and this is a match that they should be able to win. Travelling has never been easy for them but it is a test that they will have to manage if they are any chance of extended their season long into September.
Team News
Knights = Jarrod Mullen is again named in the halves after missing last week through injury. Kurt Gidley shifts back to fullback. Beau Scott returns from injury in the second row and Chris Houston pushes back to 18th man. Adam Clydsdale will start at hooker and Travis Waddell drops back to the bench.
Warriors = Shaun Johnson is named to return in the halves, shifting Thomas Leuluai to hooker and Nathan Friend to the bench. David Fusitu’a is named on the wing, outside Ben Henry. Jayson Bukuya comes back into the team at second row.
History
Overall = Knights 15 Draw 1 Warriors 15
Last 5 matches = Knights 1 Warriors 4
At Hunter Stadium = Knights 7 Warriors 6
Verdict
The Warriors are a team that is improving each week and can ill-afford to drop a match against a lowly ranked opponents like the Knights. If they do, they risk falling behind the teams that are around them, increasing the pressure on their remaining matches. The Knights rode a wave of emotion last week against the Storm and unless they have the same attitude here, they will find winning too difficult for them. The Warriors are going to be boosted in attack by the return of Shaun Johnson, yet will need to be ready for a difficult contest.
Suggested Bet
Warriors -4.5 @ $1.90
More than a converted try = Warriors over 6.5 points @ $2.10 – Selecting a margin on this match appears to be difficult. In their past 10 matches though, the Warriors have an average winning margin of 19.8 points, but there is still a question mark around their ability on the road. 6.5 points is less than that and it will add more value to your investment.
Titans (13th) v Sea Eagles (1st)
The competition leading Sea Eagles were upset by the Rabbitohs last week and will be out to overturn that performance against a team that had their Finals hopes dashed in Round 22. Although a loss is never ideal, it is one that the Sea Eagles will concede at this stage of the season, as it wouldn’t be a major disruption to their finish to the season. Their forwards were outmuscled in attack and they were tested on the edges in defense, at times appearing to be exhausted by the speed of the Rabbitohs attack. The Titans were gallant in the first half against the Roosters, but a failure to score any points in the second half hurt any chance they had of winning that match. That was coach John Cartwright’s last game in charge and with him out of the team; attention may now fall to the failures of the players on the field. It is another tough task to ahead of them but will have some hope of a victory considering the record they have against the Sea Eagles on their home turf.
Team News
Titans = Unchanged, although a few changes are expected prior to KO.
Sea Eagles = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Titans 5 Sea Eagles 7
Last 5 matches = Titans 2 Sea Eagles 3
At Cbus Super Stadium = Titans 3 Sea Eagles 3
Verdict
With the Titans season doomed, winning this match appears to be beyond them. The Sea Eagles will also be motivated by their loss to the Rabbitohs last week and the fact that dropping this match could impact upon their chances of winning the minor Premiership. The Titans were gallant last week, but the Sea Eagles are playing at a higher level compared to the Roosters. Their halves alone have enough firepower to overcome a team, let alone one with a poor defensive record like the Titans. The hardest thing appears to be settling on a margin. The Sea Eagles have a 36% rate of winning 13+, while the Titans are 50/50 for the margin in losing matches. With the home ground advantage and a point to prove without their coach, the Titans may remain in this match longer than expected.
Suggested Bet
Titans +10.5 @ $1.90
Closer than normal = Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $3 – If you want more value out of your bet then consider this option. The points are stated above and perhaps the Sea Eagles are a team that only does what is needed to win matches, rather than making a loud statement.
Panthers (3rd) v Cowboys (5th)
Just a few weeks ago, there was doubt about the potential of the Panthers with their mounting injury toll. Since then, they have gone on a 2-game winning streak against the odds and they have almost assured themselves a spot in the Finals. The Cowboys have also experienced resurgence, with a series of wins placing them inside the Top 8. They have learnt how to win away from home, while at the same time maintaining their strong form in Townsville. Last week, their confidence was increased dramatically; with a command 64-6 win over the hapless Tigers. This match is important for both teams, as they are battling to reaffirm their standing on the table, while at the same time developing momentum towards the Finals. With the Panthers hit heavily by injuries, one would think that the Cowboys and their strong roster will handle their opponents with ease. However the Panthers have been written off several times this season only to come out and prove people wrong.
Team News
Panthers = Unchanged.
Cowboys = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Panthers 17 Cowboys 14
Last 5 matches = Panthers 1 Cowboys 4
At Sportingbet Stadium = Panthers 7 Cowboys 7
Verdict
A very close match between two of the “form-teams” in the competition, this could ultimately come down to whether or not the Cowboys are able to continue on and perform on the road. They have had their troubles in Sydney this season, with wins in Round 19 and 20 being their only 2 on the road. Still, they are travelling nicely and appear as though they will be difficult for the home team to hold. They were impressive against the Dragons last week, but this will be another level altogether and can ill-afford to make errors in attack and defensive, which releases pressure on their opponents. Prior to that, their win against the Bulldogs is hardly a strong measure of form. Like several other matches this weekend, it should be a close contest, but the travelling team should have too much power for a team affected by injuries to hold.
Suggested Bet
Cowboys 1-12 @ $3
Adding value = Cowboys 1-6 @ $5.75 – This will be close match and if you are confident that there will be no more than a converted try between the two teams, then you should consider this betting option that will significantly increase the return on your investment.
Good luck!
Scooby
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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