There is now only 4 weeks to go in the competition and the make up of the Top 8 is beginning to take shape. There is still a lot of uncertainty around the positions of the teams but as it now stands, it should be a hot race home. Even the sides at the bottom of the competition are throwing their weight around and last week saw an end to the winless drought for the Eels. The Roosters remain at the top of the competition and luckily for them, they were able to jump 2 points clear of the Rabbitohs. The Storm and Sea Eagles are chasing them hard and the motivation is there with a chance to grab a home semifinal. Behind them, there are 9 teams from 5^th to 9^th that are within 6 points of one another and are vying for the final 4 spots. This is where “points difference” becomes very important but each team will know that only winning can get them over the line.

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Round 23 action will KO this week up in Gosford as the South Sydney Rabbitohs tackle the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles. I was somewhat critical of the Sea Eagles for taking a game up to this venue last week but in a short turn around, they will remain there but this time the Rabbitohs will play host. The real reason for moving this game may just lie within the crowd support for the Sea Eagles and their inability to travel away from Brookvale Oval. Either way, the people up in Gosford will be treated to an absolute spectacle of a match as 2^nd faces off against 3^rd. The doubters are beginning to come out again in full force as the Rabbitohs lost their third match in four outings, after going down to the Storm. Some would suggest that they should consider hovering a finger over the panic button because the longer that this slump in form continues, the less momentum they will have running towards the Finals. They are struggling to a certain degree, however they still have Inglis and Sutton to return to their side. Furthermore, forget their opening 15 minutes against the Storm and it was a fairly strong performance where a few calls went the way of the home side. That is nothing new in the NRL and it simply reiterates the importance of finishing the season in the top 2 (or even 4). Manly will be the first to tell you that but with the fresh rules created by the NRL, they can forget about playing a Finals game out of Brookvale. In saying that, limiting their travel around at this time when player recovery is essential will help their cause. They are a strong football team and let the Warriors know how far they still had to improve if they are going to compete with the best teams in the competition. There is no secret about the class they have as a football team and the closer they get to the Finals, the more impressive they appear. Their halves are a key focal point for them, yet they also rely on the production of their forwards. A few injuries could test their depth and without Anthony Watmough this week, they will be stretched. This game is going to be a great way to start the weekend and it will be extremely important to the fortunes of both sides, as well as the overall make up of the Top 4.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Rabbitohs have a shot in the arm this week as they have two stars returning from injury. Most notably, Greg Inglis will take his place at fullback and Nathan Merritt will move back to the wing, at the expense of Andrew Everingham and Matt King shifts to the centres. Inglis was close to returning last week but I believe they made the right choice if they want to keep him on the field during the Finals series. His return will undoubtedly increase their attacking potential and his presence will take some focus away from other attacking runners. The other notable return is of John Sutton at 5/8. His ankle probably isn’t 100%, but his injury wasn’t as bad as first thought. Similarly to Inglis, the Rabbitohs would be foolish to rush him back and further risk injury. His return has caused dynamic youngster Luke Keary back to the bench in jersey 14 and Nathan Peats back to NSW Cup. Up front, Sam Burgess is out for the next 2 weeks following his charge with the match review committee. There is no need to go into detail but it can only be described as a moment of madness that is a “grub” act. Luke Burgess, who returns from injury, takes his brother’s place in the starting side. Roy Asotasi has also been named to start the match and George Burgess has been relegated back to the bench. Jason Clarke (18^th) and Justin Hunt (19^th) have been named on the extended bench, but are likely to miss out on selection.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

The Sea Eagles have injury troubles of their own this week and with less depth than other clubs, they will not want many more to occur. Anthony Watmough is a great player and is instrumental to this side. The sooner he is back on the field, the better their chances of winning each match will  be. Justin Horo was a late withdrawal in their match last week but he returns here to replace Watmough. Jamie Buhrer will remain in the starting side but this week he will be in jersey 11. On the bench, James Hasson has been called into the team to cover for Buhrer’s promotion. The amount of minutes from their bench will not be as much as other teams in the competition, but when they are required upon, Geoff Toovey is looking for impact on the field. They will have their work cut out this week and the rest of their forwards will want to make up for the loss that they suffered to the Rabbitohs earlier in the season.

Recent History

Overall = Rabbitohs 58 Sea Eagles 71

Last 5 games = Rabbitohs 2 Sea Eagles 3

At Bluetounge Stadium = Rabbitohs 1 Sea Eagles 1

Stats that matter

• Despite their recent run of loss, the Rabbitohs are still ranked at the top of the competition when it comes to metres per carry of the ball. They average 9.14m per carry and should aim to go back to playing as much of the game as possible in this area. The Sea Eagles could work a little harder to reach this level but despite being ranked 10^th, they average 8.91m per carry.
• We are going to see two very dangerous attacking teams and their defence will have to be ready for a battle. The Rabbitohs are ranked in 3^rd in the league for line breaks and they are able to create 4.9 per game. It is no surprise to see the Sea Eagles ahead of them though given their attacking options; they create 5.2 line breaks per game and are ranked 2^nd in the league.
• This game is going to be a very close contest. The Rabbitohs score an average of 24.7 points per match (2^nd) and concede just 15.6 (4^th), very similar to that of the Sea Eagles. They score 24.4 points per game (3^rd) but concede less than the Rabbitohs with 13.8 per game (2^nd).

 

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $2.10 Sea Eagles $1.75
Centrebet = Rabbitohs $2.12 Sea Eagles $1.75
Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $2.05 Sea Eagles $1.80
Betfair = Rabbitohs $2.06 Sea Eagles $1.90

Verdict

This game is arguably one of the toughest of the weekend to select. The Sea Eagles are the form team heading into this game but like last week, I maintain that they are yet to be tested recently by a primary team in this competition. The Warriors did pose some threat last week, but it was hardly to the same level that the Rabbitohs will aim to be at. They are a dangerous team for any side to face at the moment and they are going to be as hungry as ever to grab a win. They are going to be further boosted by the return of Inglis and Sutton, but will be hampered by the loss of Sammy Burgess. Needless to say, they have several players that can step up into his role and produce a similar performance. The same cannot be said for the Sea Eagles though and while Justin Horo has been one of the “buys of the season”, he is no Anthony Watmough. Having him in the starting side along with Jamie Buhrer also limits the effectiveness of their bench and this may be the area where the Rabbitohs get them. We already saw a great arm wrestle the last time that these two teams faced one another and I am expecting the same again. It is really difficult to select a winner and I would perhaps advise staying away from this game and investing your money elsewhere. In saying that, I am confident enough that the Rabbitohs are going to bounce back into the winner’s circle with a strong performance over the Sea Eagles, albeit by a very narrow margin.

Suggested Bet

Rabbitohs @ $2.10

Bunny hopping = Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $3.40 – If you are backing the Rabbitohs to get a victory, then strongly consider this selection. It would be very surprising to see this margin of victory get out to 13+ ($5), so keep this option safe and add some more value to your bet.

Can’t decide, try your luck = Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.75 – If you do not want to make a call on this contest but believe that it will be a close game, then consider taking this option. This way, you are staying away from making a call and are just backing a close contest.

Brisbane Broncos v Parramatta Eels

The second game this Friday night that will be shown live into Queensland will feature the Broncos, playing host to the Parramatta Eels. The Broncos Finals hopes are hanging in by a thread and each week, they are faced with the potential end to the season. A loss could still keep alive their hopes, albeit mathematically; and that is a situation you never want to be in. Their success is out of their control to some degree, meaning that the best thing for them to focus on at their point is winning their own matches. Last week it was a close run thing for them as they defeated the Dragons by 2-points. In saying that, they did appear to be in control of the match and it was just a little closer than they would’ve liked. As for the Eels, they will be riding a high of confidence after capturing a win over the Tigers and breaking 10-game losing streak. It prompted some suggestions that they will now be focused on avoiding the spoon and finishing the season on the right note. They are 4 points away from the Tigers who sit in 15^th position and it does seem as though that task will be beyond them. It will be interesting to see if their players are able to go on with the job or whether or not that will be their last win for the season. I said it last week, this squad has a lot more work to do before they will install pride back into their jersey. It will be difficult for them to go on the road and win here but their job is all before them. If anything, I have learned to expect very little from the Eels because that’s what they generally deliver. It will be a surprising if there is anything else that happens, but this game could produce a shock or two. If the Eels use their last game as motivation, the Broncos may just have to rise to another level. If not, they will face the embarrassing situation of losing to the 16^th placed team.

Brisbane Broncos

There was terrible news to come out of Brisbane in their win over the Dragons as Justin Hodges went down injured. It was the early moments of their match and it seemed innocuous to say the least. After taking a few steps, he fell the ground and it soon emerged that he had torn his Achilles tendon. He has suffered this injury in the past but it was on a different leg last time and the road ahead for him will be long, to the point where some have even suggested that this may unfortunately be the end to his career. This week, David Stagg is moved to the centres to cover for him and they will have a completely new right edge, as Jordan Kahu is back into the team for Lachlan Maranta. Kahu is a talented rookie and will be out to make the most of his return from injury. On the bench, Anthony Griffin has named 6 players and there are two that will have to miss out. That will likely be Scott Anderson (18^th) and Jarrod Wallace (19^th), as Nick Slyney has been called into the 17 as a replacement for Stagg.

Parramatta Eels

The Eels are unchanged from last week however the side that they took into that game was drastically different to the team that they named. Jarryd Hayne played at 5/8 and this opened up a position for Jake Mullaney to return to the team as fullback. As Willie Tonga was a late withdrawal, Ben Roberts was not dropped from the team; rather he took his position in the centres. Vai Toutai also returned from injury and this forced Semi Radradra out of the team. In the forwards, Mitch Allgood started in the second row, while Daniel Harrison was left out of the team. This week see’s Harrison named as 19^th man and he will probably miss out along with Braden Wiliame (18^th). Pat O’Hanlon is the new face on the bench and the Eels will want the same level of contribution that he has shown in his limited opportunities.

Recent History

Overall = Broncos 27 Draw 1 Eels 18

Last 5 games = Broncos 2 Eels 3

At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 8 Eels 5

Stats that matter

• Both teams are lacking creativity in attack this season. The Eels only average 3.3 line breaks per game (15^th) and this has lead to them scoring just 13.6 points per game (16^th). The story is a little different for the Broncos though. They average 3.9 line breaks (=11^th) and they score 18.3 points per match (11^th).
• Easy misses in defence are a problem for both teams. The Broncos are one of the worst in the competition when it comes to this and they miss a whopping 30.2 tackles each week (15^th). That is surprisingly more than the Eels, but not by too much, as they average 29.7 (14^th).
• The real issue the Eels may lose this game is the amount of points they concede each week. They allow their opponents a massive 28.6 points each week and are ranked 16^th in the competition. It is a little better for the Broncos though; they are ranked in 9^th and concede 20 points per match.

 

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Broncos $1.14 Eels $6.00
Centrebet = Broncos $1.16 Eels $5.50
Sportsbet = Broncos $1.16 Eels $5.50
Betfair = Broncos $1.19 Eels $6.20

Verdict

With their season on the line, the Broncos should be able to win this match. There are several reasons that are leaning me towards them and I am not going to suggest that the Eels have turned a corner following one victory that was against the Tigers. They did have their positives in that performance, but I am going to have to see a lot more from them before I can even consider tipping them with confidence. The Broncos have a stronger set of forwards and despite their current level of missed tackles; they should be able to hold the Eels to a lesser total than their own. They will also be boosted by the fact that they are playing at home and if Sunday was anything to go by, there should be a great crowd in attendance. Furthermore, Ben Hunt is seemingly improving with each outing and he may take the “relaxed” Eels defence by surprise. Once the floodgates open with the Eels, they find it very hard to close them and there is a major chance that this will happen again here. This is probably why I am leaning towards the Broncos winning this one comfortably.

Suggested Bet

Broncos -15.5 @ $1.90

Comfort in the margin = Broncos 19+ @ $2.15 – The line does seem like a lot of points but when you think about it, the Broncos should be able to score plenty more than that. This brings the 19+ option into play and as stated above, once the floodgates open, they can be hard to stop.

Ride the Hoff’s wave = Josh Hoffman FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – Since moving to fullback, Hoffman has had the opportunity to roam around the field and has popped up almost anywhere in attack. Given this, he is a great chance of scoring the first try as he can come from anywhere on the field and this can come in the form of support, backline movement or even kick.

Canberra Raiders v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

The 3pm game returns this week and is here to stay until the end of the regular season. It was a great experience two weeks ago when the Warriors hosted the Sharks but this time, the game will take place on Australia soil and where better to play it than down in the nations capital. The Raiders dropped out of the Top 8 last week and ironically enough, it was the Titans that powered past them with a win over the Bulldogs. The Raiders are quickly running out of chances each week but they put in a better performance last outing against the Roosters that almost saw them grab an unlikely victory. It was a performance that was needed after they were embarrassed the prior week by the Storm. While they are still winless in their last two outings, the Bulldogs will be ready to put in a “bounce-back” of their own. They were outplayed and outclassed last week against the Titans, while looking anything but a team that is pushing towards the top 4. Things are made a little more difficult for them this week as they have further injuries to contend with. They have the capabilities of being a genuine threat but have a few areas that they need to improve on before they even think about that. The situation for them isn’t as desperate as the Raiders yet either. They are almost assured a spot in the Finals; and this may just give them the opportunity to regroup and focus on one last tilt at the premiership. If the Raiders fail to grab a victory, they may even fall further behind in the race to the Finals and their season may be heading for an early end. If that isn’t enough motivation for them to win this game, I am not sure what is. It is an early start to “Super Saturday” but make sure you can watch this game. Not only does it offer a chance to win some money, it also promises to be a quality game of rugby league.

Canberra Raiders

The Raiders were boosted last week with the return of Blake Ferguson to the centres after his NRL imposed ban had finished. It would’ve been a great sight for Raiders fans to see and it’s as if the ban has renewed his hunger for success. He is retained this week, however there are a few other changes that have been brought about by injury. Tackling machine Shaun Fensom is out with a knee injury and not is expected back until the Finals. Joel Edwards has been promoted from the bench in his place and this has opened up the opportunity for Jake Foster to be called into the team. Terry Campese has been named despite suffering a facial injury last week and there is a chance that he may be a late withdrawal. Reece Robinson has been named as 18^th man but you would think that Sam Williams would come into the side if he was unfit to take the field. After all that Campese has been through in recent years, it would be a shame if he were ruled out in this manner.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

The Bulldogs issues were compounded last week with further injuries to key players within their squad. That was on top of the loss to the Titans and their issues are only compounded. Sam Kasiano suffered a knee injury, while Greg Eastwood has succumbed to a hand injury. Both players are not expected back until the Finals and it will limit their effectiveness in the forwards. This is also on top of the injury to Ben Barba. The Bulldogs lift to another level when Kasiano is on the field and the work that Eastwood gets through in each game will be difficult to replace. Des Hasler has a tough job ahead of him but has a strong caliber of player to call upon. James Graham has been recalled to the starting side and his job within the team doesn’t change, while Dale Finucane will play lock. Both players are promoted from the bench and the new faces there are Tim Browe and Martin Taupau. Rookie Lachlan Burr has been named as 18^th man but it is likely that he will miss out on selection. Despite being named in the centres the past few weeks, Josh Morris has lined up at fullback. This newfound position seems to suit him but with Perrett moving back to the wing, they can be a little vulnerable on the edges.

Recent History

Overall = Raiders 26 Bulldogs 33

Last 5 games = Raiders 3 Bulldogs 2

At Canberra Stadium = Raiders 12 Bulldogs 7

Stats that matter

• It is no secret that the Bulldogs are struggling to find the same form that saw them become so successful last season. Majority of that can be put down to the form of their key players and they way they operate, that resides in the forwards. At this point of the season, they only average 8.59m per carry of the ball and are ranked in 16^th spot. The story is far better for the Raiders and they are ranked in 7^th spot with 9.02m made per carry.
• The Raiders have been their own worst enemy this season and they only have to look as far as their errors. They make an average of 11.7 per game (14^th) and are given the opponents too many attacking opportunities at their line. The Bulldogs are a little better in this area but could still improve, as they average 10.9 per game (7^th).
• Limiting their opponents scoring has been an issue for the Raiders and if they’re not careful, they will be caught off guard. On average, they concede 23.6 points (14^th) and they are well behind the Bulldogs, who average 19.7 each week (8^th).

 

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Raiders $1.80 Bulldogs $2.05
Centrebet = Raiders $1.83 Bulldogs $2.00
Sportsbet = Raiders $1.80 Bulldogs $2.05
Betfair = Raiders $1.84 Bulldogs $2.16

Verdict

If you were on Twitter early on Wednesday morning, you would’ve see first hand, which way I was going on this game. At that point, the Raiders were listed as $1.90 to win the match and were level with the Bulldogs. Well done if you took my advice, although not much has changed since then. I still believe that the Raiders area great chance of winning this match and a lot of this has to do with the personal the Bulldogs are missing. Do not underestimate the contribution of both Kasiano and Eastwood; they are essential to the success of the Bulldogs and they will have a difficult time of winning without those players. The Bulldogs will be a different team to the one that lost to the Titans and they would’ve worked hard this week at training, trying to turn around the flaws in their game. It will take a lot of work to do this and the fact that they have a short turn around to contend with doesn’t sit well with them either. As for the home ground advantage, the Raiders will be out to rectify the pounding they copped from the Storm and a win will go a long way to erasing the memory of that performance. They will not have it all their own way though; this game will be a hard fought contest and if the Raiders want to win, they will have to produce something special. This exciting game of football is sure to go down to the wire and it should the Raiders that grab a victory by a small margin.

Suggested Bet

Raiders 1-12 @ $3

Cruise to the line = Blake Ferguson FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – He was fantastic upon his return last week and despite the rumours around his request to depart the club, he should again turn out a dominating performance. The Bulldogs are going to have to put a strong player on him to stop his threat but he has so many, they may just miss one in a split second decision.

Drawing conclusion = Draw/Raiders (HT/FT Double) @ $15 – The Bulldogs are aiming to bounce back from a disappointing loss last week to the Titans. This is going to make them tough to handle early on and we may see the two sides head into the halftime break all tied up. With the Raiders predicted to win, the value on offer is very enticing.

North Queensland Cowboys v Gold Coast Titans

The second game on Saturday, kicking off at 5:30pm, heads up to Townsville as the resurgent Cowboys host the Gold Coast Titans in a traditional Queensland derby. For the first time in a long time, rugby league fans north or the boarder are faced with the issue of not having a Queensland team in the Finals series. In saying that, the Titans are the only team in (legitimate) contention that have really deserved the opportunity and even then, they have had their struggles this season. The Cowboys appear as a renewed football team following their loss to the Broncos in Round 20 and they are currently on a 2-game winning streak. In the days after that game, their coach Neil Henry was told that his contract would cease after this season and the players were faced with the prospect of a new coach next season. Perhaps this is the catalyst that was needed, because since then, frustratingly they have played to the level that they should be at. It could be a case of the players actually realizing that their careers may be on the line and they need to show off in order to remain at the club or they may simply want to send Henry out as a winner. What ever it is, it’s working for them in the time being. That reason alone is why the Titans are going to be very wary when taking them on. A team that has little to play for is always going to be a difficult prospect to face, especially when they are throwing caution into the wind. However the Titans will take a lot of confidence away from their MNF victory over the Bulldogs. They surprised everyone except themselves when they came out and displayed an impressive brand of football. Following further injuries to key players, this current team had to rise to a new level and keeping the game within the forwards for as long as possible was the best thing that they could’ve done. The players within there are an obvious strength and the room that they created for the outside backs set up enticing attacking opportunities. They too are on the back of a 2-game winning streak and unfortunately, only one side will head into Round 24 with 3 in a row (unless there is a draw). Whether or not that will be the Titans remains to be seen, but with a Finals berth on the line and more to play for, they may just have the drive to outlast their opponents. Nonetheless, a rejuvenated Cowboys team stands in their way and they are not going to lie down easily on their home turf.

North Queensland Cowboys

Following consecutive wins, the Cowboys again have little need to change their lineup. They were firing on all cylinders last week over the Panthers and despite a strong first half from their opponents; they were the better side in the second half. This produced some fantastic scoring opportunities for them and we are finally seeing just what this team is capable of. Confidence is a major contributor to success in this game and the Cowboys are obviously enjoying their recent victories. Last week, Robert Lui reduced the workload upon Thurston’s shoulders and this allowed him the chance to take the ball to the line and not worry about being caught in possession on the 5^th tackle. Some of the Cowboys tries were the result of some great lead up work and sometimes; Thurston was well away from the ball. Obviously you want him to get as many touches as possible but rather than go for quantity, quality is what is needed.

Gold Coast Titans

Much like the Cowboys, there is little need for the Titans to change their team. Of course, the team that was named was slightly different to the team that took the field as Ryan James started the match, while Luke Douglas was relegated back to the bench. This week, James has again been named on the bench but don’t be surprised if this changes. He has lifted his workload to another level and the impact he offers when he is on the field contributes positively to the Titans. In terms of maintaining this, it is probably better that James starts on the field and then once he is fatigued, Dave Taylor should be injected into the game. Two men with the sheer size and power of these two players will be difficult for any team to follow. There is still a question mark around Ashley Harrison at 5/8 but they are only going to be boosted when Albert Kelly returns from injury. There is no clear indication of when that will happen and in the meantime, this will have to suffice.

Recent History

Overall = Cowboys 5 Titans 7

Last 5 games = Cowboys 2 Titans 3

At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 2 Titans 3

Stats that matter

• The Titans demonstrated last week just how strong they can be in the forwards, although they have been fairly consistent this season. It is no surprise to see them average 9.04m per carry of the ball (5^th) and the Cowboys will have a tough time of matching that; as they only average 8.72m (12^th).
• The Titans are still ironing out a few issues with their defence and this could be why they concede more points than they would like. Currently, the miss around 29.6 tackles per game (=12^th) and this has lead to them conceding 21.5 points per game (10^th). Surprisingly, the story is a little better for the Cowboys, they miss 28.4 tackles per game (10^th) an concede 18.8 points to their opponents (7^th).
• Given the possible defensive fragilities of both teams, this game could be one by the attacking opportunities that can be converted into points. The Cowboys average 19 points per game on attack (10^th) and this could reflect upon their 4.4 line breaks per game (=6^th). As for the Titans, they make 4.7 line breaks per game (4^th) and score more points than the Cowboys, with an average of 20.8 (7^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.30 Titans $3.60
Centrebet = Cowboys $1.33 Titans $3.40
Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.36 Titans $3.25
Betfair = Cowboys $1.32 Titans $3.60

Verdict

This game is a very tough one to pick. The Cowboys have a lot of momentum following consecutive victories but in the same instance, so do the Titans. It may not appear that way on the table, but there is very little between these two teams. You would think that the Titans would have a little more motivation considering that they have just forced their way into the 8 but the Cowboys also appear to have turned a corner. They are only going to be boosted by the fact that they are playing this game in front of their home fans but of late, even they have abandoned them due to their form. The Titans will also find it difficult to back up from MNF, a game that was a very physical contest. In saying that, this could also be a positive in the sense that they will not get caught up in the hype of that victory and with minimal time to prepare, they may very well carry a similar game plan to that one. This is like splitting hairs and I think that this is a game that you should stay away from this weekend. I have listed one bet below, but that is only suggested if you cannot help yourself and must invest money on this match. For what it is worth, I like the Titans to get a win but it will only be by the narrowest of margins.

Suggested Bet

Titans +9.5 @ $1.90

St George-Illawarra Dragons v Cronulla Sharks

The third and final game on Super Saturday heads down to Wollongong as two traditional rivals face one another in a local derby. It is a shame that the Dragons have chosen to move this game out of the Sydney metropolitan area because it will perhaps reduce the number of supporters that travel to the game. Then again, this may just be the edge that they are looking for, as the Sharks supporters may be less likely to attend the match. These two teams always turn out an exciting contest and you only have to look back to Round 4 this season when the Dragons surprised everyone and upset the Sharks on their home turf 25-12. That was their first win of the season and it has been a shining light in a season that has been dull to say the least. Many would suggest that the current situation at the Dragons was always going to happen and they are looking for people to blame. Fact is they just haven’t had the quality players within their roster to compete on a regular basis. On top of that they have been hit hard by injury and failed to gain any momentum. Last week they were within striking distance of the Broncos but the scoreboard did flatter them a little. Creativity is suffering but with little to play for, they are now more inclined to throw caution into the wind. There is plenty to play for down in the Shire and as the Bulldogs were beaten on MNF, the Sharks remained in equal 5^th spot, only behind them on points difference. It was a tough game for them last week and it was a moment of luck that captured the game for the Knights. The Sharks will be disappointed with how the match finished; their defence in the closing minutes allowed the Knights to place themselves in an attacking position to score the wining try. Luckily for them, they will have a chance to redeem themselves here. They will also know what they are playing for as the Bulldogs game will be done and dusted by the time this one is ready for kick off. They may in fact be faced with the situation of leap-frogging their opponents into 5^th spot. This appears to be as high as they will able to go, but the home ground advantage in the opening week of the Finals will be very valuable to them. The Dragons won’t be ready to give up this game too easily though. This rivalry generally brings out the best in both teams, regardless of their standing on the table. Expect more of the same here and things may even get heated at one or two stages. Either way, it makes for a great game of rugby league.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

It’s not as if the Dragons are pushing for a spot in the Finals, but injuries have struck at the wrong time of the season for them. To make matters worse, the players that have been injured arguably are the one’s that are in form. Josh Dugan is out for the rest of the season with a broken thumb and Jason Nightingale moves from the wing, to fullback. The new face on the edge is Charly Runciman, who has his work cut out to provide the same safety that Nightingale does on a regular basis. Nathan Green has been relegated back to NSW Cup and Chase Stanley, who has recovered from injury, has taken his place in the team. In the forwards, Trent Merrin has suffered a knee injury that will have him out for the rest of the season but it was the “cannonball” fashion of the tackle that is more alarming. As a result, there is a reshuffle and Jack de Belin will start at lock and Jack Stockwell will take his place at prop. Leeson Ah Mau has been called into the team to partner Tyson Frizell in the second row and his place on the bench is taken by Will Matthews. Michael Weyman also joins Matthews, but he was a late inclusion last week and will look to make the most of the time he has left in the NRL. In a sign towards the future, Josh Drinkwater will start the game from the bench in jersey 17 and will be important when he takes the field. With Nathan Fein announcing his retirement at the end of this season, Drinkwater may just be the man who is given first crack at the vacant halfback position.

Cronulla Sharks

There is again mixed fortunes for the Sharks as they gain a few players who are returning from injury, while also losing other key personnel. Wade Graham has succumbed to a shoulder injury and Luke Lewis, who only returned from an injury himself last week, will take his place in the starting side. He will partner Jayson Bukuya, the made who made way for him last week. Beau Ryan also returns from a stint on the sidelines and he is immediately restored to his position on the wing, at the expense of Nathan Stapleton. The vulnerability on the edges has frustrated the Sharks and they will hope that Ryan is back to his best in no time. On the bench, Anthony Tupou is named to make a return and this has forced Ben Ross to be relegated back to 18^th man. Such is the competitiveness within this pack of forwards; Ross may just be forced to watch this game from the sidelines.

Recent History

Overall = Dragons 15 Draw 1 Sharks 15

Last 5 games = Dragons 3 Sharks 2

At WIN Stadium = Dragons 4 Sharks 0

Stats that matter

• The Sharks possess a very strong pack of forwards and this is where they should look to keep the game. They average 9.08m per carry of the ball (3^rd) and the Dragons pack that is now depleted further, will struggle as they make 8.92m (9^th).
• You cannot expect this game to be a high scoring contest when you look at the average amount of points each team scores. Perhaps this is related back to the point that they are in =15^th together with 3.3 line breaks. What ever it is, the Dragons only score 15.1 point per game (14^th) and the Sharks are just ahead of them with 17.9 (13^th).
• Defence is what will win the Sharks this game as they average a lesser amount conceded than the Dragons. To put it simply, they allow 18.6 points per match (6^th), where the Dragons allow 21.9 points to their opponents (12^th).

 

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Dragons $4.00 Sharks $1.26
Centrebet = Dragons $4.10 Sharks $1.25
Sportsbet = Dragons $4.00 Sharks $1.26
Betfair = Dragons $3.90 Sharks $1.33

Verdict

Given the rivalry that these two sides enjoy, it is hard to see why they are so different in the odds. Then again, the successful performance of the Dragons depends on a few key individuals. Unfortunately, losing Josh Dugan and Trent Merrin will only hamper their chances of victory. Dugan has been a shining light for them this season and their only real attacking spark. Without him, it is difficult to see where that will now come from. The Sharks also possess a stronger pack of forwards and a better halves pairing. They can be vulnerable at times but the Dragons do not appear likely to trouble them too match. The Sharks will also have revenge on their mind. There would be no better way to achieve it than heading down to Wollongong, a stadium that they have never beaten the join-venture club at. As for the margin, the local derby always throws up a close encounter but the Sharks defence should hold the Dragons, meaning that this game should get out to a 13+ score line.

Suggested Bet

Sharks -10.5 @ $1.90

Sound the shark alarm = Sharks 13+ @ $2.10 – As stated above, the Sharks have the defensive power to hold the Dragons to a low total and they should be able to score enough points themselves. This option is very enticing to take and this means the margin of victory can get out to anything.

Sound it louder = Sharks 13-18 @ $4.50 – Sure, the above bet does offer enough value but if you are looking for more, then become more specific on your choice of margin. The Sharks do not necessarily score many points either so the 19+ option ($3) does seem a little far-fetched.

New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers

The first game to kick off Sunday footy heads across the ditch as the Warriors host the Panthers. There is a lot resting on the outcome of this game and the first thing the Warriors will remember is the hiding they copped off the Panthers in Round 10. If you cannot remember back to that game, the Warriors were on the receiving end of a 62-6 score line and it was the low point for them this season. Amazingly, following that game they went on a 5-game winning streak and have not looked back. They are slowly gaining a strong position on the table and they are a team that can provide a shock or two on their day. They have been disappointing in their last two outings and those results are losses that they can ill-afford at this point in the season. Especially when you look at the fact that they are still 2-points out of the Top 8 and have a -82 points difference to contend with. The story has been a little different for the Panthers since that Round 10 game. They have struggled for consistency but also have a horror injury toll to contend with. Other sides in the competition that are afforded the same plight could take something away from the level of enthusiasm and conviction that they have played with. They would’ve been as disappointed as anyone with their effort the week earlier though. They were comprehensively beaten by the Cowboys after a strong first half performance set up, what appeared to be a competitive finish to the game. Their job does not get any easier this week. While they still have a 7-day turn around, they have to travel across to New Zealand. Furthermore, their squad is well below full fitness and the door is quickly closing for them to make a run towards the Finals. No one expected them to make it this far in their campaign, but now they are here, you would think that they would to go on with it. It will not be easy and the Warriors seem to lift to another level when they are playing at home. The Panthers will be buoyed by their previous victory over their opponents, but that will matter little once the whistle blows to start this contest.

New Zealand Warriors

Warriors coach Matthew Elliot has been playing a few games with his team of late and it appears they will continue into this contest. This revolves around their forward pack and the naming of Ben Matulino in the starting side. In recent weeks, Elliot has opted to start Jacob Lillyman in the team and inject Matulino into the game once the pace evens out. This week, Matulino retains his starting spot but do not be surprised if this changes. They have also chosen to name Jerome Ropati as 18^th man, but apart from that, things remain the same for them. They tried very hard in their last outing but they need a little more control when building pressure through their territory on the field. The flair is always going to be there for them, but if they turn over the ball with a simple mistake, they could be left ruing their attacking opportunities.

Penrith Panthers

The Panthers also sprung a late surprise last week as James Segeyaro was named to start the match at lock and Sam McKendry was a late inclusion in the front row. Not only that, they were boosted by the return of Lachlan Coote from injury. His inclusion in the game was limited from the bench but the impact that he offers is dangerous to say the least. This week, the same changes have been maintained, albeit Segeyaro will start off the bench with Coote and Jeremy Latimore, who has been relegated to this role following McKendry’s inclusion. There were a few other changes, Lewis Brown was moved from the second row to the centres, at the expense of Geoff Daniela and brought a defensive toughness to the edge. This was also to accommodate the return of Sika Manu from injury in the second row. All of those changes are again maintained into this week.

Recent History

Overall = Warriors 14 Draw 1 Panthers 16

Last 5 games = Warriors 3 Panthers 2

At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 7 Panthers 7

Stats that matter

• The Panthers are performing better than most expected and their discipline with the ball has something to do with it. They average a completion rate of 74.5% (3^rd) and commit just 10.3 errors per match (4^th).
• Don’t be fooled by the season averages for the Warriors, their poor start to the season has a lot to do with it. As a result, they average a 70.8% completion rate (14^th), commit 11 errors (9^th) and miss 29.6 tackles (=12^th). However since Round 10, they have averaged 74.3% completion rate, 10 errors and surprisingly, missed 32.9 missed tackles.
• Both teams are level when it comes to points scored this season. They average 19.4 per game and are ranked in =8^th. On defence, the story is a little different though as the Warriors concede 23.5 per match (13^th), while the Panthers allow 21.8 (11^th).

 

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Warriors $1.14 Panthers $6.00
Centrebet = Warriors $1.16 Panthers $5.50
Sportsbet = Warriors $1.14 Panthers $6.00
Betfair = Warriors $1.16 Panthers $6.40

Verdict

Taking a quick look at the above odds, you would hardly surmise that Warriors were the team that lost by 56-points to the Panther earlier this season. However the recent form of both teams sways the game towards the Warriors. Not only that, they are going to be strengthened by playing this game at home and the job required of the Panthers in order to win this game appears to be beyond them. The Warriors will not have it all their own way though as the Panthers are a physical football team. Furthermore, they have the Warriors former coach to gain information about their opponents from. Even that won’t be enough though and the Warriors should have a victory by the end of this match. In terms of a margin, the Panthers will be stronger outfit following their “embarrassing” performance last week against the Cowboys. The Panthers have the ability to score plenty of points, but so too do the Warriors. A blow out in this match would be surprising and I am leaning towards a fairly close contest.

Suggested Bet

Panthers +15.5 @ $1.90

Hard fought battle = Warriors 1-12 @ $3.25 – It is no surprise to see the 13+ option ($1.65) as the more fancied option but I am expecting a stronger defensive effort from the Panthers. You only have to look to the points that both sides average for the season and there is more value on offer, so keep this selection in mind.

Beastly success = Manu Vatuvei FTS and/or LTS @ $6 – Did you really think that I was going to recommend anyone else other than the big fella? His try scoring record is amazing to say the least. However if you need any more convincing, Vatuvei has scored 3 of the first tries in the last 5 Warriors games played at Mt Smart Stadium. Rarely do you see someone this price, but his sheer size and ability will make him very hard to stop.

Newcastle Knights v Melbourne Storm

The main game this Sunday heads up to Newcastle as the Knights look to keep their strong Finals credentials alive with a win over the Storm. It is not an easy task by any means but the opportunity is there for them to cause an upset. Back in Round 14 in the reverse fixture, the Knights almost stole the game away from the Storm, narrowly going down to them 16-14. It wasn’t until the 69^th minute when Billy Slater scored that the Storm actually lead the match. From then on, they were able to hold the Knights in what was a cracking game of rugby league. In recent weeks, the Storm have been able to silence the doubters around that they are experiencing a post-Origin slump. They have recorded two very strong wins over the Raiders and the Rabbitohs, but this will again be a test for them. You only have to look at the statistics of a few of their recent performances to see that things may not be as clear as they appear (see “Stats that matter” below). Fact is though; they are assured a spot in the Finals and will probably finish within the Top 4. It is just a matter of where they will finish now and the momentum they can build towards September. As for the Knights, they are in 7^th spot on the table and while it appears as though they should make the Finals, they need to assure themselves this position with a few more wins. There are a whole host of teams that are chasing them hard and it is going to be exciting to see if they are able to hold those teams at bay. A loss here and a win to the Titans and Raiders would have them fall out of the 8 and make the job for them a little harder. Unfortunately for the Knights, their team isn’t as stable as they would like just yet. They have a few players out through injury and their performances can be volatile, to the point where you can never be sure which Newcastle team will “show up”. Hopefully for their chances and the support of their fans, the quality team arrives, just like last week where they snatched a late win over the Sharks in a high quality contest. If so, the Storm may find it difficult to grab a win and a tough game of rugby league is sure to be played.

Newcastle Knights

In the big scheme of things, the Knights victory last week meant a lot more than just 2-points to them. It was a stroke of lucky that allowed them to get into that position but they played a very tough and physical game throughout. There is still a question mark hanging around their performance each week and you can never be sure which Newcastle team is going to turn up. In terms of their team this week, not too much changes except for the inclusion of Alex McKinnon on the bench, at the expense of Adam Cuthbertson. Craig Gower has also been included on the bench, but this is as 18^th man and he will be likely to miss out. He was purchased to do a job for the side until Kurt Gidley returned from injury and now that he has recovered, it is hard to find a place for him. Gidley will start from the bench but you would think that the closer he gets to full-fitness, the more likely he would be to gain a starting spot in the team.

Melbourne Storm

Following a pleasing display over the Rabbitohs, the Storm have chosen to carry the same team into this match. That includes naming Slade Griffin as 18^th man and it appears as though his only chances of playing will be if there is a late injury to the team. When most people thought that the Storm were beginning to struggle and experience a post-Origin slump, they have proven the doubters wrong. They are going to be a difficult opposition for any team to beat, regardless of whether or not the game is played on home soil. The “Big 3” are of course the core of their success, but as I alluded to last week, the job of the players around them are just as important to their success. Bellamy runs a fairly basic game plan when you break it down; it requires those players doing their jobs and the “Big 3” finishing off the attacking movements.

Recent History

Overall = Knights 12 Storm 17

Last 5 games = Knights 0 Storm 5

At Hunter Stadium = Knights 9 Storm 4

Stats that matter

• Perhaps the Storm have been lucky in some respects when you look at their stats since Round 16. Taking out the Raiders game, they have poorly average a 68.1% completion rate, committed 12.5 errors and missed 25.3 tackles. They can be vulnerable during their performances and it is just a matter of their opponents capitalizing when they have the chance.
• The monotonous attack of the Knights does need a spark if they are to continue to trouble their opponents. So far this season, they only average 3.9 line breaks per game and are ranked in =11^th in the competition.
• The Knights are fairly consistent in terms of points scored and conceded, as they are ranked in 5^th position for both. They manage to score 21.8 points per match and concede 17.3 to their opponents. As for the Storm, they score an average of 23.6 (4^th) and allow just 15.5 points (3^rd) each week.

 

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Knights $3.00 Storm $1.30
Centrebet = Knights $3.00 Storm $1.41
Sportsbet = Knights $2.80 Storm $1.45
Betfair = Knights $3.15 Storm $1.44

Verdict

It is very surprising to see the odds in this game so heavily skewed in one direction. Yes, the Storm have been dynamic in recent weeks but it was only 3 weeks ago that they were struggling for consistency. In saying that, this probably reflects the confidence that the punters have in Newcastle. You can never be sure which team is going to show up and what level of performance they will be at. With all that there is to play for, you think that the right Knights team will take the field. They will also lift to another level in front of their home fans, making this game very close. Not only that, the Knights have an uncanny knack of lifting against the top sides in this competition. I will not go as far as suggesting that they will win this game but looking at it, I believe it will be a lot closer than most think. This means value for the punters as well, as the bookies are suggesting that the 13+ margin is more likely to happen. They Storm will not get their usual “home ground penalties” that have helped them at home. The Knights will have a tough time of it though, especially with the players missing from their lineup. Regardless, a close game is ahead and I recommend framing your bets around that.

Suggested Bet

Knights +6.5 @ $1.90

Stormy afternoon = Storm 1-12 @ $2.85 – Given how close this game is expected to be, this option is the most relevant. The Storm are always going to be difficult to beat and the Knights will be a different side playing with confidence and in front of their home fans.

Off to a flyer = Knights Try (first scoring play) @ $2.25 – Emotion will be high for the Knights and this game is arguably as important as any they have played this year.

Wests Tigers v Sydney Roosters

Round 23 action concludes on Monday with a contest that is a miss-match to say the least. Ironically enough, the Tigers will be the home side against the Roosters but they will be playing the fixture at Allianz Stadium, one of four home grounds that the Tigers occupy. To suggest that this game would be one that fans are looking forward to this weekend would be a gross understatement. The Tigers have been disappointing this year and they just about reached rock bottom last week with a loss to the Eels. It isn’t exactly helping that they have several off field issues that has them featuring almost every day in news reports. It seems the issue around Benji Marshall is getting worse by the day and having him parade himself in an Auckland Blues jersey when still contracted to the Tigers was a big slap in the face for the game. I am all for players looking after themselves financially but it is hard to garner support for Marshall when he is leaving his contract early and going to play another code, turning his back on the club that gave him the chance to make a name for himself. Brush that aside and their coach Mick Potter is another man that is feeling the heat. To hear that the Tigers are considering sacking him at the end of the season is ridiculous. He has had a horror injury toll to work with as well as an underperforming roster. It would be fair to give him another season at the helm and see what he can do. There are no such issues over at Bondi as the Roosters are sitting pretty at the top of the table. They are the favorites to take out the competition and first on their agenda will be capturing the minor premiership. It would be disappointing for them to win that and then be unable to go on with the job in the Final’s series; however you can be sure that they will have their eyes firmly on the job at hand. They are gaining momentum each week, to the point last week where they were able to hold off a fast finishing Raiders team. The hype around their team is deserved, although it will be interesting to see how their attitude is heading into a game against a hapless opponent that isn’t expected to trouble them. There is only one way to see what happens and if you’re not interested in the game, then let’s see if we can make some money out of this match.

Wests Tigers

There are a few changes to the Tigers this week but before the teams were named, eyes were firmly focused on whether or not Potter would name Marshall. He has and it appears as though he will be given every chance to finish the season in the number 6 jersey and play his 200^th game. The only change in the backline is the inclusion of Lote Tuqiri on the wing as a replacement for injured Marika Koroibete. It has been a long time coming for Tuqiri and it was suggested at numerous points in his 12-month absence that perhaps it was time for him to call it a day. In the forwards, Ben Murdoch-Masila comes into the second row in place on Bodene Thompson, who moves back to the interchange. On the bench, Potter has named 7 players, leaving his options open right up until kick off. The extra players this week are Masada Iosefa (18^th), Shaun Spence (19^th) and Matt Bell (20^th). Whether or not these players grab a start is another thing and you will have to pay attention to the final teams that are named.

Sydney Roosters

The Roosters suffered some disappointing news last week following the injury to Boyd Cordner. He has already had surgery on his injured leg and he is not expected to feature in their run towards the Finals. They have a willing replacement for him though as SBW’s 2-week suspension for his shoulder charge on Willie Mason has been served. Everyone thought the Roosters would struggle without him but they faltered little.  Luke O’Donnell is also out of this game and Sam Moa gains a start at prop in his absence. This has opened up another spot on the bench and Tinirau Arona is called into the team. It is a winning formula currently for the Roosters, although they still have a question mark or two around their bench and how much impact they can offer when they take the field. There is also a doubt around Pearce at halfback, but he is proving that his failures in the Origin arena matter little at club level. He is doing a solid job of leading this team each week and it is going to be interesting to see how he responds when he is pressured.

Recent History

Overall = Tigers 8 Roosters 14

Last 5 games = Tigers 1 Roosters 4

At Allianz Stadium = Tigers 3 Roosters 8

Stats that matter

• The Roosters are coming good at the right time of the season. In their past 4 games, they have averaged 79.3% completion rate, committed 8.7 errors and missed just 22.3 tackles.
• It has been a season that the Tigers would like to forget, especially when you take a look at their stats. They are ranked 16^th for completion rate (69.5%) and errors (11.8), while being ranked 15^th in metres made per carry (8.66m and 13^th for line breaks (3.4).
• The margin of victory could get out to anything for the Roosters when you have a look at the points scored and conceded for both teams over the year. The Roosters score an average of 25.8 (1^st) while only conceding 11.9 (1^st), where as the Tigers allow 26.6 (15^th) and score just 14.9 (15^th).

 

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Tigers $11.00 Roosters $1.05
Centrebet = Tigers $11.00 Roosters $1.05
Sportsbet = Tigers $11.00 Roosters $1.05
Betfair = Tigers $11.00 Roosters $1.08

Verdict

There isn’t too much to write about this contest. This game is a matter of how much the Roosters will win by. They have a stronger team all over the park and I am struggling to think where the Tigers scoring opportunities will come from. Perhaps their exciting outside backs will offer a spark but that also requires the ball getting out to the edges. Either way, I cannot see them scoring many points at all. The Roosters have this game firmly in their control and as stated above, it will be interesting to see how they are mentally prepared for this contest. With games like this, it is always difficult to see where the value will come from but it is intriguing to note that the line offered in one of the largest ever given to a home side in the NRL. In saying that, I believe that it will not be enough to help the Tigers in this game.

Suggested Bet

Roosters -26.5 @ $1.90

A complete blow out = Roosters -34.5 @ $2.90 – You will have to search to find this option but if you’re able to, there is plenty of value on offer. As stated above, the Tigers may find it very difficult to score points and given the Roosters try scoring ability, this game may get very ugly towards the end.

Oh Danny boy = Daniel Tupou FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – Tupou has been in great form recently and in the past 5 games, he has scored the first or last try in 3 games. He is always a threat out wide and he wi