The race towards the Finals is heating up and Round 22 brings us closer to the conclusion of the season. It seems like only a few weeks ago that the season actually kicked off and the excitement this year has been plentiful. Unfortunately, every day the ASADA investigation is raised and the uncertainty around the issue is hampering the focus towards the on-field action. No one likes to see this happen but hopefully a resolution to this all can be reached during the offseason and the current NRL action can continue, without any issues. There is still a lot to play out in the remaining matches and just as one broadcaster has stated, “every game matters”.

Melbourne Storm v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Round 22 action will kick off down in Melbourne this week with arguably the game of the round as the Storm host the Rabbitohs. It is a battle between the two of the Top 4 teams and there is a chance that this game will have a bearing on the eventual make up of the final standings. The Storm are flying high at the moment and appear to have returned to their best form after a dominating display over the Raiders. Many thought that they would do it tough down in the nations capital, especially given the hype around their post-Origin flaws in recent seasons. In the big scheme of things, it was only one victory and they still do have some way to travel before they prove that they are out of any type of “slump”. Despite this, they sent a loud message to the rest of the competition and the Raiders were relieved when the fulltime whistle went, stopping the scoring at 68-4. They rely heavily upon their stars but they were very well supported last week by the outside backs. Furthermore, the forwards set a strong platform early on in that contest. It has been a winning formula that has worked for so long and it involves getting back to basics and letting the “Big 3” take control of the game. As for the Rabbitohs, they have a very steep mountain to climb in a very short period of time. They were left embarrassed last week after an 18-point loss to the Cowboys in Townsville. It was a performance that was surprising considering that heading into Round 21, the Rabbitohs were sitting at the top of the competition ladder. Since then, they have slipped to 2^nd, behind the Roosters on points difference and they also have a very tough run home to contend with. Compounding issues further, they are now without John Sutton (2-4 weeks) on top of the injury to Greg Inglis. Neither is expected to feature in this game and it will be interesting to see just how the Rabbitohs perform without two of their premier players. We are also going to see just how strong they are as a football team, their pride was knocked around last week and they have to face one of the best teams in the competition over the past 4-5 years, on their home turf. This game is going to be a great way to start the weekend and at its conclusion, there are going to be a whole host of questions and answered about the hopes and potential of both sides.

Melbourne Storm

Coming off a 64-point victory, there is little need for the Storm to make any changes. In the lead up to that game, Slade Griffin was omitted from the bench and his place in the side was taken by Kenneath Bromwich. That same move is retained here and although missing out last week, Griffin will be named as 18^th man. The Storm looked back to their best last week but they will be the first to tell fans that it is only just the beginning. In reality, the Raiders were terrible but the Storm executed a game plan that frustrated, annoyed and dismantled the Raiders team from the inside out. It was amazing to see some of their tries that were scored, none more so than Mahe Fonua’s effort to stop the ball going over the dead ball line and allow Will Chambers the chance to score. Not only that, both Fonua and Sisa Waqa were able to grab a hat-trick and prove that the Storm are taking steps towards readying themselves for the Finals.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

It was almost panic stations for the Rabbitohs when John Sutton was carried off the field with an ankle injury in their loss to the Cowboys but since then, news has surfaced that he will only be out for 2-4 weeks. He is one player that has had his struggles throughout his career but it appears as though the advice that Michael Maguire is able to provide to him is serving him well. This week, Luke Keary has been promoted from the bench to start at 5/8 and there is no secret around his potential within this competition. He will be targeted early by the Storm but he is one player that will be up for he challenge. His promotion into the side has opened up the opportunity for Nathan Peats to gain a recall back to the bench in jersey 14. The Rabbitohs were comprehensively beaten last week by a team that has struggled all season but perhaps they were caught off guard. Either way, there is a bigger effort needed from their forwards and for one of the first times, we saw them battle to gain the upper hand against their opponent. Expect a big game from them here and they will want to remind the competition that they are still one of the premier forward packs in the competition.

Recent History

Overall = Storm 18 Rabbitohs 3

Last 5 games = Storm 5 Rabbitohs 0

At AAMI Stadium = Storm 3 Rabbitohs 0

Stats that matter

• The Rabbitohs were certainly below their best in the forwards last week and the metres made per carry is a key indication of this. For the season, they average 9.13m with each possession (2^nd) but in that game, they were only able to manage an average of 8.59m. The Storm were very strong against the Raiders and it was amazing to see their average sit at 10.19m for that match,
• The Rabbitohs are still proving difficult to handle with the amount of line breaks they are able to create per game. For the season, they average 5.1 per game and are ranked in 3^rd spot. The Storm are not too far behind them though and they have multiple attacking threats. They average 4.4 line breaks per game and are ranked in 6^th spot.
• Expect this game to be very close if their average points this season are anything to go by. The Rabbitohs are performing a little better than the Storm but only just. In attack, the Rabbitohs average 25.6 points per game (2^nd) whereas the Storm score around 23.4 (4^th). Things are little closer on defence, the Storm concede 15.8 points (4^th) and the Rabbitohs allow their opponents to score an average of 15.1 (3^rd).

 

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.33 Rabbitohs $3.40
Centrebet = Storm $1.36 Rabbitohs $3.25
Sportsbet = Storm $1.35 Rabbitohs $3.30
Betfair = Storm $1.38 Rabbitohs $3.55

Verdict

This game is a very tough contest to pick from. Aside from the very poor showing by the Rabbitohs against the Cowboys, they are a quality outfit and you wouldn’t expect them to stay down for too long. At this stage, I am not willing to jump off them after one loss and even though they were also beaten by the Dragons only a few weeks ago, I am expecting them to be very competitive. The Cowboys were always going to come out firing in that contest given everything they had been through in the past week and any side that seasons is virtually over, are going to be difficult to play as they are more willing to throw caution into the wind. In the same instance, the Storm were at their dominant best last week but like the Rabbitohs loss, things do have to be put into perspective. The Raiders have hardly set the world alight this season and even though they are strong at home, any team that is hoping to push for the premiership should be able to head down there and beat them. If this game was played in Sydney, the choice of selecting the Rabbitohs would be made a little easier but like majority of the teams in this competition, the Storm are very strong at home. The safest option in this game is bet around a close contest and invest your money on other games this weekend where the result is not as clouded as this one. For the sake of tipping a winner, it is hard to go past the Storm but I am very wary of the Rabbitohs bouncing back and they are only going to be boosted if Inglis returns. If you are leaning the same way, have a go at taking them with the line or even selecting your own. I can’t see this game being decided by more than a converted try.

Suggested Bet

Rabbitohs +9.5 @ $1.90

Or

Either team under 6.5 points @ $3.25

Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers

It is amazing that at the same time on Friday night, the best and worst game of the round will be taking place. Everything matters in this game and while not pushing for a spot in the Top 8, the winner of this contest will move away from winning the dreaded wooden spoon. In saying that, the Eels look destined to capture their second consecutive spoon and it will be another long wait for the Eels to return pride into this jersey. It will be interesting to see the crowd that turns up for this match and really, a rugby league fan should be paid to watch this contest rather than placing their hard-earned cash down to attend this game. Neither team deserves any respect and while the Eels have lacked enthusiasm and pride, the Tigers are not far behind them. The main issues plaguing the Tigers at the moment seem to revolve around Benji Marshall and his impending departure from the club. Many have suggested that since he has chosen to leave the club at the seasons end, they have no obligation to continue to give him the opportunity to play. That is a fair assessment given his current form but people are forgetting the service that he has given this club. This game will mark his 200^th in Tigers colours and it is a milestone that he is deserved of. It is only another few games before he departs but maybe the Tigers are missing a vital opportunity to “blood” a younger player with an eye towards next year. In saying that, playing in a losing team will not enhance his experience and it will probably only increase the pressure that they will be playing under. As for the Eels, the solutions to their problems seem a world away. This week also saw the news surface around the troubles that halfback Chris Sandow is going through and it is a reflection of how the Eels as a club are currently functioning. It will be a long offseason for them and evident in their play is the fact that they are hanging out for that point to finally come. When it comes, their coach Ricky Stuart will have a lot of work to do in order to turn the fortunes of this club around. It is amazing to think that a team on a 10-game losing streak can be favorites for a game but the Eels have somehow commanded that attention and it is up to the Tigers to return serve and prove that they do not want to have the “spoon” in their possession at the conclusion of the 2013 season.

Parramatta Eels

There are again a few changes to the Eels team this week but none are more important than the return of Jarryd Hayne at fullback. What appeared to be an innocuous injury at first sight, eventually lead to Hayne missing out on Game 2 & 3 of the SOO series and there was some talk around that he would be out for the remainder of the season. It is no secret that his presence on the field is vital for the Eels but he has been there in the last few seasons when they have struggled. Furthermore, it will take a few weeks for him to get back to full-fitness so do not expect too much from him just yet. His return forces Jake Mullaney out of the team altogether and he can be proud of the effort he put in, but he still does have a lot of development to go through. In the halves, Api Pewhairangi has been left out and Ben Roberts will start at 5/8 and Luke Kelly returns from injury to take his position at halfback. In the forwards, Daniel Harrison has been named to start this week and Mitch Allgood has been moved back to the bench. That is how they were named to start last week, yet Stuart made the bold move of starting Allgood to add a bit of fire to the contest. Fire is something that the Eels could do with; then again perhaps they should focus on regaining some pride in this jersey.

Wests Tigers

Things do not get any easier this week with the news that their captain, Robbie Farrah, has been ruled out through injury. Joel Luani takes his place in the team and he is a youngster making his NRL debut. He will have his work cut out trying to maintain the level and effort that Farrah offers but it could be a good indication of where the Tigers future is heading. Staying in the forwards, news that Aaron Woods will be out for the remainder of the season has again compounded the problems at the Tigers. Keith Galloway has earned a promotion into the starting side and he has swapped with Jack Buchanan, who will now have to bide his time on the sideline before taking the field. In the backs, Chris Lawrence has again unfortunately suffered an injury and Tim Simona shifts from the wing and into the centres to cover for him. This has opened up a vacant spot on the wing and Marika Koroibete returns to the team following a return from injury in the NSW Cup. In a very surprising move, Braith Anasta has been named at halfback and Curtis Sironen is relegated back to the bench. Whether or not there is any method behind this madness remains to be seen, however in the chances he has been given in the halves this season, Anasta has failed to make an impact and lacked the stability that the Tigers have so desperately craved.

Recent History

Overall = Eels 15 Draw 1 Tigers 11

Last 5 games = Eels 1 Tigers 4

At Parramatta Stadium = Eels 8 Tigers 5

Stats that matter

• In a sign of how bad things are for both teams, they were only able to score 6 points each in their Round 21 games. To make matters worse, neither team appears to be dragging themselves out of this whole any time soon. In their last 3 matches, the Eels have averaged only 6 points, while the Tigers are a little better with 13 points per game.
• Creativity has also bee a problem for both teams and the line breaks that they are creating is not a statistic that they will want to focus on too much. The Eels are the worst in the competition when it comes to this and only average 3 per game. The Tigers are a little better off, but not much with their average of 3.2 (14^th).
• There is no clear indication of how many points are going to be scored in this match as both teams fail to score many, yet concede a high amount on defence. The Eels are obviously one of the worst at this and score an average of 13.3 (16^th) while conceding 29.3 (16^th). As for the Tigers, the story isn’t much better and it is an area they will want to improve upon. They score an average of 14.5 (15^th) while allowing their opponents to score an average of 26.6 (15^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Eels $1.60 Tigers $2.40
Centrebet = Eels $1.65 Tigers $2.30
Sportsbet = Eels $1.62 Tigers $2.35
Betfair = Eels $1.61 Tigers $2.28

Verdict

As stated above, it is amazing to think that the Eels will start as favourites in this game. I believe that this is misleading and in fact, the Tigers are the team that should be shorter in the market. Let’s just focus on picking this game purely based on the recent form of the two teams and leave everything else aside. The Eels are lacking creativity in attack currently and the move of Ben Roberts back to the halves isn’t going to spark anything that we haven’t seen from them before. Their strength heading into this contest will be within their forwards and if they are aiming to win this game, they should take the battle to the Tigers there. Also assisting the Eels will be the fact that they are playing at their home ground. It doesn’t necessarily mean that a victory is heading their way, but it does give them a slight advantage over the their opponents. Taking the Tigers though would also be risky. They were terrible last week against the Titans and attacking creativity is also a problem for them. The one area where they possess an advantage is in the halves and although they are horribly out of form, the players in that position have the ability to “turn it on” when they need to. Again, this will come down to the platform that the forwards lay and if the Tigers can roll forward over the advantage line, the extra room to move for their halves will be there. I really believe that the Tigers are the better team going into this contest and therefore have an increased chance of winning this contest. They have proven in a few games this season that they are able to score points against a few sturdy defences and the wall that the Eels are going to put up has continually been beaten down. The Eels players will realise that this is their best chance at grabbing a victory so they need to take it with both hands. This will be a close game that could go down to the wire and if you haven’t already noticed, I like the Tigers to grab the 2 points. Be very cautious though, this type of game is always tricky and I would recommend thinking twice before investing a lot of money on the game.

Suggested Bet

Tigers 1-12 @ $4

Go Davey Go = David Nofoaluma FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – You only have to go as far as this video to see this rookies skills. He will again be a threat on the edge for the Tigers and adding weight to his argument is the fact that he has scored 2 of the 3 first tries for the Tigers in their last 3 matches.

Sydney Roosters v Canberra Raiders

Without a 3pm game this week, Super Saturday is anything but what the name suggests and action will kickoff at 5:30pm with a game between the Roosters and the Raiders. For the first time this season, the Roosters will head into a round as competition leaders and full credit has to go to them. They have played an exciting, yet commanding brand of football that is built around a very solid defensive structure. They have been able to turn around the fortunes of this talented squad and prove that they are capable of contending, if not winning, the premiership this season. It is all before them now and they are going to give it a decent shot in the run home. If anything, they will have the opportunity to nail down home ground advantage and carry that throughout September. The same cannot be said for the Raiders though, they are coming off one of the worst losses in the clubs history and to make matters worse, it was suffered on their home turf. Generally they are strong down there, but losing 68-4 at the hands of the Melbourne Storm brought reality back into their team. If it wasn’t already tough enough for them, they now have their work cut out to make the Top 8. It is an advantage that the have 5 games to make the most of, but they have a very tough task ahead of them in this match. They have struggled on the road this season to say the least and the Roosters are going to give little away in attack. They concede the least amount of points of any of the teams in the competition and the Raiders will have to dig deep into their bag of tricks here. Potential is something that the Raiders do have but it is just a matter of them using it in the right setting and drawing the right result for them. There is a lot on the line for them in this game and eventually, this game may prove a deciding factor on the success of their season. Depending on which Canberra team travels up on the bus will determine just how this game plays out and if the right one gets off the bus, this game is going to be an exciting contest that is worth watching.

Sydney Roosters

The Roosters are sitting pretty at the top of the competition and will enjoy their first week there this season. They will trod out the usual lines when questioned about this and you will hear a lot of talk about them being focused on the “bigger picture”. Needless to say, they have deserved their current standing and it is testament to the ability of their coach, Trent Robinson, to turn around the fortunes of this fledging team. Hardly as crucial as missing Greg Inglis or Ben Barba, the Roosters will be without their fullback, Anthony Minichiello, for around 3-weeks. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been given the chance to move from the wing and it was a change that was always going to happen, albeit next season. If they going to move him there next year, there seems to be no harm in him playing there now and this talented youngster will arguably add more flair from the back through his speed and “amazing” sidestep. This move has caused some disruption to the rest of the team though and Shaun Kenny-Dowall has moved out to the wing. Mitchell Aubusson has come into the centres from the second row and the new face partnering Boyd Cordner in the starting team is Aidan Guerra. He has been promoted from the bench and the new face there is youngster Dylan Napa, with Isaac Lui now wearing jersey 16.

Canberra Raiders

Desperately searching for answers following their 64-point hammering last week, the Raiders have made a few changes to their side this week. Most notably, Blake Ferguson has returned from his very serious off-field indiscretion. He is still waiting for the court hearing and in the meantime, the Raiders have deemed that his mental state is fine (and he has also served his NRL imposed ban) and he will be able to take his place in the centres this week. Whether you agree with this move is another thing, but there is no doubting the talent of this youngster and getting back to the field may be the distraction he needs. This move has forced Joel Thomspon back to the centres and the new face on the wing is his partner in crime (pardon the pun), Jack Wighton. This has forced Reece Robinson back to the extended bench as 18^th man. Thompsons move into the second row has pushed Joel Edwards back to the bench and Jarred Kennedy has vacated the team altogether. The Raiders have also named Bill Tupou as 19^th man and carrying two extra players into this game suggests that there is a cloud of doubt over a few of their players that have been named to play.

Recent History

Overall = Roosters 29 Raiders 25

Last 5 games = Roosters 2 Raiders 3

At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 14 Raiders 4

Stats that matter

• The Raiders were terrible to say the least last week and conceding 68 points wasn’t their only issue. They missed 40 tackles, made 11 errors and allowed the Storm to run riot with 10 line breaks.
• The Roosters build a very solid game plan around limiting the points scored by their opponents. They are the best in the competition when it comes to this and concede an average of just 11.3 points each week. The Raiders could take something away from this and conceding 68 points last week has now pushed their average to 23.4 points per game (14^th).
• Despite their standing on the table, the Roosters are the worst in the competition when it comes to conceding penalties. On average, they concede 8.1 per game and can ill afford to allow this statistic to continue. Free rides down the field will be something that the top teams in this competition will take advantage of when it matters most.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Roosters $1.18 Raiders $5.00
Centrebet = Roosters $1.18 Raiders $5.15
Sportsbet = Roosters $1.20 Raiders $4.75
Betfair = Roosters $1.17 Raiders $5.70

Verdict

How can you take a team that was beaten 68-4 the previous week, now playing against the competition leaders? It was amazing to hear that a few betting agencies had actually taken sizable bets on the Raiders to get a victory in this match but perhaps people are suggesting that they will be able to bounce back from their trouncing. Sure, there is the distinct possibility that the Raiders will be a better team than they were last week and if they failed to come out onto the field and do that, they are not worthy to feature in the Finals. However, the Roosters are a tough outfit and it is difficult to go past the quality they possess within their side. They have a lot of attacking threats and will ensure that the Raiders find scoring points very difficult on the back of their bruising defensive structure. I think that there is more than meets the eye to the Raiders problems currently and the loss last week may just be the tip of the iceberg. If they fail to make the Finals, we may see a few more things unravel other than a star junior moving on. They will be boosted by the return of Blake Ferguson and his inclusion adds to the attacking threat of the Raiders on the edge, especially if they are able to get him one on one with a weak defender. That’s not to say that the Roosters have any weak defenders, but isolate a few of their outside backs and their tackling ability can be minimal. Regardless, it will take a monumental effort from this Raiders team to grab a victory here and I cannot see the Roosters being caught off guard to any real extent. The only trouble here is going to be selecting the margin. The Raiders will undoubtedly be a tighter defensive unit than last week and based upon that, I am leaning towards taking the 1-12 option. I don’t think that there will be too many points scored in this contest either and this makes the Raiders at the line, become even more enticing.

Suggested Bet

Raiders +14.5 @ $1.85

Home to roost = Roosters 1-12 @ $3.25 – As stated above, this game may be a little closer than most think and given that, I am inclined to take the mountain of value on offer. Everyone is expecting this to be a thrashing but the Raiders will be out to tighten their defence after an embarrassing effort last week.

Tupou too much to handle = Roger Tuivasa-Sheck FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – RTS has been on fire of late and everyone at the club is excited about his impending move to fullback. If things go to plan, he will be playing there next season and this move only gives him greater freedom to move around the field. This means a chance of popping up anywhere on the field and isolating a defender one-on-one.

Cronulla Sharks v Newcastle Knights

The second game this Saturday is as important as any other this weekend as both sides are firmly in contention for a Top 8 spot. The Sharks will relish the chance to return home and will be buoyed by their victory over the Warriors last week in NZ that will hopefully give them the confidence to tackle the Knights here. In that game, Cronulla showed the quality and grit that this side is capable of. Despite the off-field issues, this team is a close-knit group that knows the importance of winning to take the attention away from other areas for themselves, the club and the fans. Heading into this round, the Sharks are in 6^th spot on the table on 26 points and with a -9 points difference. They are 3 points ahead of the Knights who are on 23 points and have a +79 point’s difference. They are 1 point ahead of the Titans (9^th – 22 points & -21) and along with them, the Warriors and Panthers are also breathing down their neck. If they were to lose this one, they would lose touch with the Sharks and the Bulldogs (26 points & +57) and will have to hope that the earlier game doesn’t go the way of the Raiders (24 points & -104). It is not an ideal situation to be in, but the Knights are the only ones that are in control of their destiny. The equation for them is simple, win matches and make the Finals or lose and face another early exit from the competition. They are too talented for that to happen but if it does, questions are surely going to be raised about their squad and how master coach Wayne Bennett is handling them. This game is arguably one of the most important in the run home and it will impact on many other teams that are pushing for one of the remaining spots in the Top 8. Strap yourself in folks; this game is going to be one hell of a ride that will involve desperate footy at its best. Make sure that you tune in to watch this game because it promises to be a memorable game in terms of the 2013 season.

Cronulla Sharks

Focusing on the on-field performances, the Sharks will carry the same team into this game that was victorious against the Warriors last week. It was a vital win in the big scheme of things because they have done what only a few clubs have been able to do this season, win in NZ. The Warriors are also a team that plays with a lot of confidence and the Sharks should be commended on how well they shut down the Warriors attacking opportunities. On top of this, their game plan frustrated the Warriors and they were able to execute their attacking opportunities to perfection. Todd Carney is one player in this competition that appears to be in a rich vein of form and the Sharks are benefitting from it. The return of Jeff Robson to the team from injury has allowed Carney greater freedom to roam the field and the way he is taking the ball to the line is proving problematic for their opponents each week.

Newcastle Knights

The Knights are boosted this week with the return of a few players to the team that will immediately slot back into the starting team. It was a disappointing result last week for them and while not walking away empty handed, that performance could be a game that they let slip from their grasp and could cost them key position in the Top 8. They did fight back from behind but the game was there for the taking at several stages. This week, James McManus returns to the wing and Kevin Naiqama has been dropped back to NSW Cup. In the forwards, Kade Snowden returns from a 2-game suspension that he served for dangerous contact with the knees against the Panthers. He will start up front with Zane Tetevano, while David Fa’alogo moves back to the bench. Beau Scott has unfortunately been ruled out with an injury and Chris Houston takes his place in the starting side. His promotion has not caused a disruption to the bench as Adam Cuthbertson and Neville Costigan retain their spots. Korbin Sims has not been named as 18^th man and perhaps he has reached his limit for the season but this youngster is sure to be a prominent figure for the Knights in years to come.

Recent History

Overall = Sharks 16 Draw 1 Knights 24

Last 5 games = Sharks 1 Knights 4

At Remondis Stadium = Sharks 11 Knights 9

Stats that matter

• Wayne Bennett has installed a disciplined brand of football at the Knights and it is certainly allowing them to have plenty of attacking opportunities, they just need to learn how to convert them on a regular basis. This is highlighted by their completion rate (75.9%) and errors (9.6), where they are ranked 2^nd in the league for both.
• The Sharks have a lot of firepower in the forwards and they are a handful for any team to handle. They are ranked 1^st in the league when it comes to metres made per carry and making 9.14m is allow Carney extra room to move. The Knights are not too far behind them however their ranking has them a fair way behind the Sharks. They make an average of 9.00m per carry and are ranked in 8^th spot in the league.
• The Sharks have no trouble conceding points (18.6 – 6^th), it is just scoring points where they struggle (18.1 – 10^th). If the Knights get the chance, they will want to build a strong lead early and force the Sharks into chasing points. They average 21.9 points in attack (5^th) and are able to hold their opponents to an average of 17.5 points (5^th) on the scoreboard.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Sharks $1.50 Knights $2.65
Centrebet = Sharks $1.52 Knights $2.60
Sportsbet = Sharks $1.50 Knights $2.65
Betfair = Sharks $1.53 Knights $2.66

 

Verdict

The inconsistency of the Knights is making this game a very difficult one to pick. One week they are a solid outfit that seems destined to make a spirited run towards the finals; then the next they look like a side that will either miss the 8 or barely scrape their way into it. Then on the other side of things, you have a team that is trying to put together a charge at the Finals, sitting well within the Top 8 and have to deal with a mountain of trouble off the field. Their predicament isn’t a positive situation to be in but it is galvanising them as a club. More to the point, when they return home, they tend to lift to another level to reward the loyalty of their fans and remind them that they are always going to be a part of this club. With all this going on, the Sharks are determined to play a strong brand of football that will yield them 2 competition points and on the back of player like Carney, so far they’re achieving that. They are improving each week whereas the Knights seem to take one step forward, then two back with every second game. They failed to “seal the deal” against the Broncos last week on home soil and their forward pack showed how vulnerable they can be. This will be an area that the Sharks will look to capitalise on and you can be sure that once they win the battle there, the Sharks halves will have a field day with the extra room they are given. They should win this contest, but I am expecting that this one will be extremely close and may only be decided in the final few minutes. I am also not expecting too many points to be scored and we are going to see a really tough and physical, defensive battle.

Suggested Bet

Sharks 1-12 @ $2.90

Sharks are circling this margin = Shark 1-6 @ $5.75 – There is a bigger reward on offer if you are willing to make a closer call on the margin of victory for the Sharks. This game should go down to the wire and with a tip of minimal points scored, this one should play right into punters hands.

Flash Gordon = Michael Gordon FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – In the last 4 games, Gordon has scored the first try for the Sharks in 2 games. However this stat becomes more impressive when you consider that in one of those 4 games, the Sharks were scoreless. So really, he has scored 2 out of 3 games and again is a strong chance of crossing the line first with Todd Carney taking the ball to the line strongly.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles v New Zealand Warriors

Super Sunday is back this week and with 3-games on the billing, it will be a great way to conclude the weekend and prepare for the week ahead. Before we can get to that point, the footy must take priority and kicking off action at 2pm is a match between the hardened Sea Eagles and the desperate Warriors up at Bluetounge Stadium. Yes that’s right, amid all of the pressure around creating funding for Brookvale Oval; the Sea Eagles have chosen to take a game up the F3 in a marketing venture that will probably cover the losses that an “out-of-town” team would offer. Back to the football action though, the Sea Eagles are beginning to flex their premiership muscle and on the back of a 5-game winning streak, they are beginning to look dangerous. It has been a relatively easy run of games for them but as I have said all season, a team can only play what is in front of them. You only have to look as far as the form around those performances and in those weeks, they have scored an average of 35 points while only conceding 14.3 in defence. Their young halves are steering the ship very well and things are going according to plan for them. This game will test them though and the current predicament for the Warriors will make them a tough team to get past. They are playing for their season each week and they can ill-afford a loss at this stage. Heading into this game, they will sit in =9^th spot on 22 points, but are down in 10^th due to a -67 points difference. It will work in their favour that the teams in 6^th – 8^th position will all have played their games. They will know what is required of them and only being 1 point behind the Knights who are in 8^th spot will encourage them in this game. It was a despairing effort in their last game against the Sharks and the game was there for the taking in the closing stages. Regardless of this, they still performed to a suitable level and are proving to be a smarter football team each week. They are mixing up the flair and discipline very well in their game plan but this is going to be a real test for them. They need to put a few more wins together to drive their way into the Top 8 and it will be intriguing viewing in this contest. It is a great way to start Super Sunday so make sure you get a chance to watch this vital contest for the Warriors and other teams pushing to make the Top 8.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Having pounded the Eels for the second time this season, the Sea Eagles have little need to change their team. That is probably why they have chosen to name the exact same team that featured in that contest. More pleasing for them will be the fact that they are now on a 5-game winning streak that stretches back to Round 17. Ironically enough, it was a 50-10 victory over the Eels in that fixture that sent them on their charge. They are a team that appears to be peaking at the right end of the season but the depth that they have will be tested if they sustain a few injuries. Hopefully they can avoid that situation and if they do, they are a force that is to be reckoned with. They are strong defensively and have no issues creating attack opportunities through their young and talents halves pairing. On top of this, you have their safe and strong backline that has to be up there with one of the best in the league.

New Zealand Warriors

The Warriors are not exactly going into a panic mode just yet following a loss at home to the Sharks. Sure, their home ground has been somewhat of a “fortress” for them this season but it will matter little to them when they make the Finals as majority (if not all) of their games will be played in the road. They have made no drastic changes for this game and there is just the one positional switch to make note of. Jacob Lillyman was named to start from the bench last week but he was given a starting spot at the expense of Ben Matulino. That has changed this week, although their coach Matthew Elliot may opt for Lillyman to again start as he brings stability to their defensive line and Matulino can offer attacking impact when he takes the field. Some would argue that the Warriors were somewhat unlucky last week and the game was there for the taking. They didn’t deserve to win but the break in the last few minutes down the touchline set up a fantastic scoring chance, but an errant pass ended any hopes that they had of scoring a match-winning try. Shaun Johnson was the man responsible for the pass and the attacking break but rather than get himself down about it, he will use it as motivation to capture a victory here. He is playing very enterprising football currently and his threat in attack is going to worry any team that he comes up against.

Recent History

Overall = Sea Eagles 16 Warriors 8

Last 5 games = Sea Eagles 4 Warriors 1

At Bluetounge Stadium = Never played at the venue

Stats that matter

• The Warriors are improving each week with their discipline but they still have a fair way to go to capitalise on the attacking opportunities they are given. They average a completion rate of 70.9% (13^th) but what is better for them is the fact that they only commit 10.9 errors per match (8^th). The Sea Eagles are a model for them to go off and they average a completion rate of 74.4% (5^th) and commit just 9.9 errors (3^rd).
• Missed tackles is one area that the Warriors would look to improve on. Despite averaging 29.3 per game (=12^th), they average 26.2 in games they have won this season. If they were to maintain that, it would put them on par with the Sea Eagles who average 26.9 misses a game (6^th).
• The Warriors season stats for points scored and conceded are a heavily effected by their slow start to the season (season 19.7 in attack – 9^th  & 23.3 in defence – 13^th). However since Round 11, they average 24.9 points in attack and 17.6 points in defence. The Sea Eagles have been consistent all season and this has the Warriors at a level they should be at considering the Sea Eagles average 24.3 points in attack (3^rd) and allow just 13.9 points in defence (2^nd).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $1.35 Warriors $3.25
Centrebet = Sea Eagles $1.40 Warriors $3.05
Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $1.35 Warriors $3.30
Betfair = Sea Eagles $1.40 Warriors $$3.20

Verdict

Everything suggests that the Sea Eagles are going to win this match. They are in better form and appear to have a stronger defensive structure in place. In the past 5 years or so, this is generally the time of the season when their players rise to the occasion and get themselves ready for a strong tilt at the Finals. They have players that know how to get the job done and are willing to do what ever it takes to get there. On the other hand, the Warriors are desperate for a win to keep their Finals hopes alive. If not, they are at risk of slipping further behind the teams that are ahead of them. Sure, the Sea Eagles have been great on their winning streak but they haven’t really been tested. They have played the Eels twice, the Cowboys, the Tigers and the Titans; none of which are major threats to the title. That isn’t to say that the Warriors are, but they are closer to winning it than the teams mentioned and are in better form. This could very well be the downfall of the Sea Eagles and they may be caught off-guard with the intensity of a team like the Warriors. Based on this, I believe the Sea Eagles will not win this game as comfortably as most think. They are able to take it to another level when it is needed but it will be interesting to see how they have prepared mentally. I like the Warriors to stay in this game for a long time, if not right up until the end. This brings the line into play, as well as a few other margin bets that may be overlooked.

Suggested Bet

Warriors +8.5 @ $1.90

Clipped wings = Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $3 – As stated above, I am expecting this game to be a lot closer than most think. Given this, I am inclined to take the better odds of the Warriors keeping this one as a close contest and the Sea Eagles getting home by the suggested margin, hopefully for a handsome collect.

Beauty of the beast = Manu Vatuvei FTT @ $4 – The Beast was back in form last week scoring the first try for the Warriors and the last try in the overall match. Rather than hedge the bets on him opening the try scoring account for the match, I am just going to stick to him scoring the first try for his side.

Brisbane Broncos v St George-Illawarra Dragons

The “match of the day” this week heads up to Brisbane as the Broncos look to keep their very slim finals hope alive against a Dragons team that is out of contention. The Broncos kept things alive by the “skin of their teeth” last week with an 18-all draw with the Knights. While it had its positives, they will be the first to admit that it was a disappointing effort considering they were leading the game with 2 minutes remaining, when Uate scored a try. Luckily for them, the Knights failed to convert and they went into golden-point. In the closing stages of the match, the Broncos appeared to be running out of energy and were flat to say the least. That has probably been the story for the season for them and they have been unable to finish off the crucial games that have mattered most. It is a disappointing set of circumstances for them and if they eventually miss the Finals, their season will be considered a disappointment based on the quality of players they have had at their disposal. The Dragons would kill for that option and if they had it, the pressure on Josh Dugan would be released. Everything is falling down to him at the moment and he is emerging as their only hope of scoring points. He is not shying away from the extra load though, he is as dangerous as ever; and at the moment, he is the biggest attacking threat in a losing team (across the competition). Last week against the Bulldogs, he kept them in the game up until halftime. After that, the Bulldogs flexed their forward muscle and mistakes, along with their forward’s inadequacy, got the better of them. The Dragons are thankful at the moment that the Eels and Tigers are worse off because otherwise, they would be firmly under the spotlight. There are still a lot of their supporters out there that are willing to add their opinion to the argument that Steve Price needs to lift his act or perhaps it is time for the Dragons to appoint a new coach. Either way, the only way for these two clubs to head next season is up. They can take a few steps to resurrecting that here and even in the process, they could salvage some pride back into their club for this season.

Brisbane Broncos

The Broncos managed to keep their slim Finals hopes alive last week but will again be filling the pressure this week. There are a few changes for them to contend with and it is not ideal that starting prop, Mitchell Dodds has been ruled out with a knee injury. Luckily, they have an even better player to call upon in Ben Hannant, who is appears to be finally making his return to the team following a lengthy lay-off through injury. I would be wary of this though, he has been named for the pass few weeks and has been rumoured to be playing when he hasn’t, only to miss out on the game altogether. It probably isn’t a bout of confidence when the Broncos have chosen to name 3 players on the extended bench. Last week also saw the early return of Jack Reed from injury and his inclusion forced David Stagg back to the bench, with Nick Slyney moving out of the team. He has been named as 20^th man but will be likely to miss out along with Scott Anderson (18^th) and Jarrod Wallace (19^th) if all Broncos players are fit and ready to go. It was again another fairly successful game by Ben Hunt at halfback and he appears to be getting increasingly comfortable with each performance he has in that position.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

Following the changes that were made in the lead in to their MNF match, the Dragons were forced to reshuffle their forward pack. That is again the case here and it is a shame that Michael Weyman has succumbed to an injury and they will miss the impact that he offers each week. His omission has seen Ben Creagh named to start at prop and Tyson Frizell has earned a promotion from the bench to partner Bronson Harrison. Leeson Ah Mau moves back to the bench and the new face there is Will Matthews, who is named to cover for Frizell’s promotion. The Dragons looked in contention for another MNF upset but with 25 minutes to go, the Bulldogs clicked into gear and the Dragons were unable to rise to another level. A lot of their attacking flair is resting with Josh Dugan it is scary to think where they would be without his contribution to the team each week.

Recent History

Overall = Broncos 16 Dragons 13

Last 5 games = Broncos 5 Dragons 0

At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 6 Dragons 6

Stats that matter

• It is no secret that the Dragons have had difficulty scoring points this season and a lot of it can be put down to the pressure they place on their opponents with the ball. They only create an average of 3.2 line breaks per game (15^th) and this has lead to them averaging just 14.6 points scored each week (14^th).
• The Broncos are not too far ahead of them but they are able to score more points than the Dragons are each week. They created 3.8 line breaks per game (12^th) and this has lead to them scoring 17.9 points (=12^th).
• It is a little puzzling to see both teams average a different number of missed tackles while conceding an opposite average of points. For the Broncos, they miss around 30.3 tackles (15^th) and allow their opponents to score 19.8 points (9^th). Whereas the Dragons miss 25.1 tackles (4^th) but concede more points, with an average of 21.7 per game (11^th).

 

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Broncos $1.35 Dragons $3.25
Centrebet = Broncos $1.36 Dragons $3.25
Sportsbet = Broncos $1.35 Dragons $3.30
Betfair = Broncos $1.37 Dragons $3.35

Verdict

The Dragons are pinning all of their hopes this season upon Josh Dugan. It isn’t a bad thing, but for their chances to ride on one player is a lot of pressure for them to perform under. The Broncos season hasn’t gone according to plan and with a little more to play for, they appear to be the team that will finish this match in front. This game is probably going to be an entertaining contest with several points scored, so have a little look at the over/under market. As for how the Broncos will win this match, they need to first nullify Dugan’s attacking ability and set the game up for themselves. They can do this by placing a strong emphasis on their forward production and beating the Dragons in the middle of the park. This should see the Broncos outside backs have extra room to move and this is going to mean more points. This is another area that will prove beneficial for them. All signs point to a Broncos victory and it is just a matter of deciding on how much they will win by. I fancy the 13+ option, but I cannot see this game being a complete blow out.

Suggested Bet

Broncos 13+ @ $2.30

Bucking Broncos = Broncos 13-18 @ $4.50 – It is stated above, I cannot see the Broncos piling a mountain of points on the Dragons and hence this option comes into play. It will add a little move value to your bet, especially if you are looking for more aside from the “suggested bet”.

Centre of attention = Jack Reed and/or Justin Hodges FTS @ $9 – I do not like suggesting two players to score first but I believe that the Broncos are going to target the Dragons on the edges. They have a strong set of wingers for them but their centres are weak. Enter Reed and Hodges, who are always going to be a threat to score with a strong platform set by their forwards.

Penrith Panthers v North Queensland Cowboys

The final game this Super Sunday heads out into Sydney’s west as the Panthers host the Cowboys. They are another side in the competition that is hanging in by a thread and they need a lot of things to go their way before they even think about making the Finals. Firstly, they will want to turn around their horror injury toll that is hampering their potential of extending their season. In saying that, they have been a surprise this season and no one would have suggested that they would be a chance of making the Finals. Teams that have suffered the same injury fate can take a lot away from the Panthers season; they’ve shown what it means to play with pride, passion and effort throughout the year. The Cowboys are one team that could learn from them but then again, they are headed for a change once their current coach, Neil Henry, departs at the end of the season. It was a case of too little too late last week for the Cowboys as they surprisingly put the Rabbitohs to the sword. They demonstrated just what they are capable of but with nothing to play for, it is very frustrating to see them turn out such a performance. While showing off their talents, they also reminded everyone how much they have underachieved this season. Still, the performances that they are turning out now should act as a catalyst for their offseason. If we can focus on that game, they were at their attacking best. Thurston controlled the attack very well but in the same instance, none of it would’ve been possible had the Cowboys forwards not won the battle up front. That accomplishment within itself is amicable when you consider how well the Rabbitohs have performed as a pack. It will be interesting to see if the Cowboys are able to go on with that effort this week or it was just a matter of them performing in a week when their coach was sacked. If they are serious and want to finish the season on the right note, then this is a game that they will want to win. Standing in their way is the Panthers, who are still fighting to keep their season alive and the stage is set for an exciting contest that could unearth anything.

Penrith Panthers

The Panthers problems are again compounded with a few more players suffering injuries. It has not been a successful season for them in this department and there should certainly be a review of their recovery and fitness procedures given the amount of injuries their players have suffered. This week, Sika Manu is out and Lewis Browns moves from the centres, back to his customary position of second row. The new face on the edge with Geoff Daniela and he will have his hands full trying to hold the talented Cowboys centres and wide running back rowers. Ryan Simpkins is also named to start at lock following the injury to Adam Docker and he will have a hole to fill as Dockers defence in the middle of the field had opposition ball runners constantly looking to see where he is in the defensive line. Simpkins promotion from the bench has opened up the opportunity for Nathan Smith to come into the 17. Also a change from last week, Josh Mansour was a late inclusion for James Roberts on the wing and he has retained his spot here after a fairly strong performance.

North Queensland Cowboys

The Cowboys are no doubt happy to be back in the winner circle but a lot of people will be frustrated by the fact that it has taken so long for them to show their best form (if it was their best). There isn’t really any need for Neil Henry to change his side this week, however he has chosen to recall Rory Kostjasyn back into the team on the bench and drop Scott Moore back to QLD Cup. Kostjasyn will fill the utility role for the Cowboys although Henry is leaving his options open, naming Ricky Thorby as 18^th man. Obviously they do like to take an extra player on their travels, but it does add another component to the strength of their forwards. Last week, there was also the late change to the starting side at halfback that saw Robert Lui recalled to the side. Michael Morgan was the player that was dropped and he has again failed to nail-down a starting spot in the team. The position of halfback has proven problematic to say the least for the Cowboys and it is severely affecting the performance of their star playmaker, Johnathan Thurston. The less pressure that falls upon his shoulder and a sharing of the workload is only going to improve the performance of this team. It is a shame that they are out of contention but that is no one else’s fault but their own.

Recent History

Overall = Panthers 17 Cowboys 13

Last 5 games = Panthers 2 Cowboys 3

At Centrebet Stadium = Panthers 7 Cowboys 6

 

Stats that matter

• The Cowboys were doing everything right last week and they were looking like a complete football team. They had a completion rate of 84.2%, made just 9 errors and missed only 22 tackles in defence.
• As for the Panthers, not much went right for them and they always going to find it tough to beat the Roosters. They only had a 63.9% completion rate, made 14 errors and missed a whopping 46 tackles. Alarmingly, the Panthers have now averaged 44 missed tackles in the past 3 weeks.
• The points difference between to two teams may be an indication of how this game will play out. The Panthers score 20.2 points in attack (8^th) and the Cowboys are just behind them with 18.1 (=10^th). As for defence, the Cowboys average less with 19.5 (8^th) and the Panthers have had a more difficult time, conceding 21.1 (10^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Panthers $2.75 Cowboys $1.47
Centrebet = Panthers $2.72 Cowboys $1.48
Sportsbet = Panthers $2.85 Cowboys $1.45
Betfair = Panthers $2.96 Cowboys $1.50

Verdict

There is very little to play for in this game, more than the “spoon-off” on Friday night, but either way it is a tricky game. The Panthers will keep alive their slim Finals hopes with a win but they are quickly running out of players. At the moment, they are still suffering through a horror injury run and that alone, may ruin their chances of extending their season. It will also be a deciding factor in this game and may be the overall reason why the Panthers struggle to win this match. The Cowboys found their groove last week and were able to play some very exciting football, but before getting too excited, they are a horrible team to select on the road. Regardless, I am going to recommend them for the win, simply based on the quality of player that they have within their roster. If they have any pride or respect for the jersey, they will play exactly like they did last week and try to finish the game on a high. As for the margin, the Cowboys should do it comfortably but after last week, I don’t think the Panthers will be completely blown out and should be a lot stronger in defence.

Suggested Bet

Cowboys -5.5 @ $1.80

No margin for error = Cowboys 13-18 @ $5 – I could recommend the Cowboys 13+ ($2.60), but I believe that there is more value in this option. As I stated above, it should be a stronger defensive effort this week by the

Try Buzz Lightyear = Brent Tate FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – Apart from having a striking resemblance to the Toy Story character when wearing a neckbrace, Tate is going to be a great chance of scoring first in this match. He will be playing on the Cowboys right edge and this should see him oppose Geoff Daniela. Daniela isn’t the strongest defender out there and if Tate can isolate him in the defensive line, he is going to go close to opening, or finishing the scoring in this game.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v Gold Coast Titans

Monday Night football again features the Bulldogs and this week, they are playing host to the Gold Coast Titans. Eventually, things went according to plan for the Bulldogs against the Dragons but for a while there, they looked a pressured. There were some great pieces of individual brilliance by Josh Dugan that kept closing the door on the Bulldogs but once they began to click, they jumped ahead. It was difficult for the Dragons to compete with them and in the end, they recorded a confortable victory. There isn’t too much to be worried about at the Bulldogs either. They are going to make the Top 8 and now will try to push on to make the Top 4. That task may be beyond them as heading into this round, they were 3 points behind the Sea Eagles and the Storm. Winning can do their chances no harm and that is all they can control. The Titans need to focus on achieving the same outcome, but the situation for them is far worse. They are on the fringe of the 8, 1 point behind the Knights in 8^th but they have a -21 points difference to contend with. Their performance last week would’ve assisted them in their pursuit for a Finals position, but they need to continue winning matches to give themselves every opportunity. Like many other clubs, injuries are hampering that quest but that is nothing new to anyone. They need to find away around this and focus on the outcomes that they can control. The Bulldogs will be a tough opponent for them to get past and if they are not focused, they will be beaten. This match should deliver a quality game of football and the winners in this situation before the final whistle, will be the fans. Make sure that are able to hear or watch this game because it may even assist in selecting games in coming weeks, as well as being an enjoyable game.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

The Bulldogs will not have to worry about a short turn around here as they have a full week to prepare for this game. Monday Night can be a tricky fixture when you have it but otherwise, it can be a good to get into a rhythm if you are in a situation like the Bulldogs are. As for the changes this week, Tony Williams has been named to start like he was last week but they didn’t take the field that way. Josh Jackson was promoted to the starting side in his place and Williams was left to make his impact when called upon. When he took the field, he captured 2 t