Sea Eagles (1st) v Broncos (8th)
The Sea Eagles became the first team in 2014 to qualify for the Finals with their 10-point win over the Warriors in NZ. They have been able to put a host of off-field issues behind them to turn out some impressive displays. This is surprising to some extent, given the issues revolve around the board and their reluctance to sign certain players, while offering others more money. The job for them now is to ensure that they maintain their strong standing on the table and give themselves every possible change of finishing the season as Minor Premiers. Unlike their opponents, the Broncos went down on their home turf to a defiant Storm team. Luckily, due to other results, they maintained their standing inside the Top 8. They too are battling off-field issues and are teetering on the edge of missing the Finals. They have been inconsistent for majority of the season yet have also proven their worth with solid victories. They need to return to that level and show how much their coach Anthony Griffin means to them through winning performances. The task of winning is only made increasing difficult as they face an inform Manly on their sacred turf, Brookvale Oval.
Team News
Sea Eagles = One change this week, with Jorge Taufua named to replace Cheyse Blair after recovering from an injury. If he doesn’t prove his fitness, expect Blair to come back into the team.
Broncos = Anthony Griffin has named Jack Reed and Daniel Vidot to return from a club-imposed suspension. Both have been named on the wing; with Dale Copley remain in the centres. Jack Granville has been added to the 5-man bench alongside Martin Kennedy.
History
Overall = Sea Eagles19 Draw 1 Broncos 18
Last 5 matches = Sea Eagles 4 Broncos 1
At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 9 Draw 1 Broncos 5
Verdict
After dropping last weeks match, the Broncos will be out to bounce back to form. It isn’t ideal though that they face the competition leaders who are travelling well. The Sea Eagles should be able to handle their opponents without too much trouble, although the Broncos will aim to make a match of it. The only area where they would be superior is the forward pack and even then, the Sea Eagles have a better hooker leading the team around. Best option is to stick to a close match, with the home side prevailing and pushing towards the Minor Premiership.
Suggested Bet
Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $3.10
Bulldogs (4th) v Panthers (3rd)
Both teams have experience consecutive losses after previously recording strong victories. It was the first time the Panthers had achieved that this season and with a host of injuries and a tough run home, this game could mean a lot more to the overall success of their season. Many people are suggesting that if they are unable to win this match, they are going to have a very hard time of making the Finals. The Bulldogs were also off their game, going down to the Cowboys who only recorded their second win on the road this season. Luckily, several players returning from injury in key positions boost them and they should only improve in the run home. Perhaps those past two matches were losses that they needed, in order to refocus them towards their goals. If not, they too could risk a spot in the Finals, however Des Hasler is too smart to allow his team to drop off at this stage of the season. This match should be a great one to watch and one that could mean a lot more in a few weeks time.
Team News
Bulldogs = Josh Reynolds returns from suspension at 5/8, with Tony Williams moved back to the second row. Greg Eastwood is pushed back to lock, while Dale Finucane is back to the bench. David Klemmer also returns, alongside promising rookie Lloyd Perrett.
Panthers = Several changes this week. Will Smith is named to make his debut at 5/8, as Jamie Soward returns to halfback. Howevery they are boosted by several returning players, with wingers Josh Mansour and David Simmons back on the edge. Adam Docker also returns at lock, pushing Lewis Brown back to the bench.
History
Overall = Bulldogs 48 Draw 3 Panthers 33
Last 5 matches = Bulldogs 3 Panthers 2
At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 3 Draw 1 Panthers 6
Verdict
With both teams desperate to get their form back on track, this game could be the closest of the weekend. Losing Peter Wallace is a massive blow though and running short on replacements forces the Panthers to take a gamble on a youngster who is unproven at this level. In equal measure, the inclusion of Josh Reynolds for the Bulldogs is a major boost to their chances of winning this match. He is a catalyst for them in attack and will draw away pressure from Trent Hodkinson and use the momentum built by the forwards. The money that has come for the +6.5 line in favour of the Panthers suggests that fans believe this match will be close, but that is only one converted try and not worth the risk. Rather a better option would be the Bulldogs margin of 1-12, given they have won 8/13 between that total so far.
Suggested Bet
Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.90
Sharks (16th) v Eels (12th)
The Sharks were able to grab a victory against the odds last week, proving that regardless of their standing on the table, they are going to push very hard for 80minutes. It isn’t an ideal situation for them to be in, but now their sole focus is avoiding the dreaded wooden spoon at the conclusion of the season. On top of that, they have the opportunity to provide first grade experience for several players that should serve them well in the future. The Eels were also successful last week, capturing a much-needed victory on the road to the Titans. Jarryd Hayne was again a catalyst for their success, scoring and setting up tries with apparent ease. The Eels need to become more than a 1-man team though, with their Finals hopes hanging in the balance and a favorable run home, now is a chance for Brad Arthur’s squad to make a name for themselves. In the past though, they have lost several games they have been expected to win, this is one that could be dangerous and they will have to put that out of their minds and face the challenges that the Sharks offer throughout the contest.
Team News
Sharks = Anthony Tupou and Tupou Sopoaga are included on a 5-man bench, with one of those two expected to drop out prior to KO.
Eels = Just one change, with Peni Terepo replacing Kenny Edwards in the second row.
History
Overall = Sharks 41 Eels 38
Last 5 matches = Sharks 2 Eels 3
At Remondis Stadium = Sharks 21 Eels 13
Verdict
With the form of these two teams, absolutely anything is possible in this match. The Eels should be able to handle the Sharks given their standings on the table, but the home side will be difficult to upset at Remondis Stadium. If the Eels turn up to play, they should be able to grab the 2-competition points. At this stage of the season, a victory means so much more to them than it does the Sharks, suggesting that they will be motivated by the fact that they have more to play for. It will still be a close match though, but the Eels thrive when they are throwing the ball around and the conditions on Saturday afternoon should allow them to do this with ease, spelling trouble for the Sharks mainly on the edges of the field.
Suggested Bet
Eels -2.5 @ $1.90
Semi trailer = Semi Radradra FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – If there is one area where the Sharks are extremely vulnerable, it is on the wings. Having this monster run towards you will pose a problem for any player, let alone the two smaller ones that the Sharks have. The Eels will want Semi in the game from the opening moments and use is size and ability to his advantage.
Cowboys (7th) v Titans (13th)
The Cowboys won their second match on the road this season last week, with a win against the Bulldogs. That victory meant a lot more to the progress of their overall season, as they now sit inside the Top 8 and need to affirm their position. Returning home to Townsville should only boost them, but now they are faced with the tough task of an unpredictable team. The strength of their squad is only growing and they will need to ensure that their forwards support Thurston in attack. The Titans still have several troubles plaguing their progress, disappointing again at home with a loss to the Eels. For one reason or another, they struggle for consistency and their Finals hopes are slipping dramatically. With the logjam of teams ahead of them, a loss here could spell the end to their 2014 campaign. The repercussions of that could be dramatic also, with John Cartwright apparently on very thin ice. There is no doubt why when you consider his teams performances and they could very well be playing for him as well as their Finals hopes and two competition points.
Team News
Cowboys = The Cowboys are boosted by the return of Matthew Scott from a lengthy lay-off and is expected to feature alongside James Tamou, who is in some doubt. Tautau Moga swaps with Matthew Wright, with Moga playing wing this week and Wright into the centres.
Titans = David Mead returns on the wing, replacing Kalifa Faifai Loa.
History
Overall = Cowboys 6 Titans 8
Last 5 matches = Cowboys 1 Titans 4
At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 3 Titans 3
Verdict
Thanks to their recent form, the Cowboys are heavily favoured to win this match. It may not be as easy as that though, with the Titans proving to be a thorn in any teams sides when they turn up to play. The trip north to Townsville probably sways the odds further into the home teams favour and they should be able to handle their opponents. The hardest thing to decide in this contest is the margin of victory for the Cowboys. So far this season, of the 9 matches that they have won, 6 have been by 13+ points. With a 66% chance of that happening here, that could be the way to go. Then again the Titans are a desperate team and are playing for their season, their margin in losses is split 50/50 between 1-12 and 13+. They are a different team now and of their average losing margin in the past 5 matches is 5.7 points. Let’s go for a close match at the business end of the season featuring two anxious teams.
Suggested Bet
Titans +10.5 @ $1.90
#RidemCowboys = Cowboys 1-12 @ $3.10 – All the reason are stated above and with Thurston’s kicking ability, he could stretch the margin out to two converted tries. This allows for that, as opposed to hoping the Titans stick close enough to their opponents and returns greater value.
Roosters (5th) v Dragons (10th)
The Roosters cannot wait to get this game going, as it will put to rest a match that they shouldn’t have lost. Just when they appeared to be back to their best, the Premiers crashed back to reality with an upset to the Knights. That loss made it 3 from their past 5 matches; hardly looking like the force they were only a few weeks earlier. Injuries have compounded issues for them and their halves have to take greater control of matches and use the platform that is built by their forwards. There were no such issues for the Dragons though, beating the Tigers with ease and clawing their way back into Finals contention. Gareth Widdop has been a major contributor for them this season but he raised his efforts to another level last week, controlled every aspect of attack and proving to be a solid leader. Just as impressive as that, was the support the other players offered him and Marshall to produce the win. Due to their early season form, they can ill-afford a slip up in their run home and will be desperate to keep that form rolling. It will be another step up for them here, but a win is a result that is not beyond them, despite losing 34-14 earlier this season. Then again, they are a different team to that day and will be driven by revenge.
Team News
Roosters = Michael Jennings returns to the centres after being out since Origin concluding, pushing Audan Guerra back to the forwards to cover for SBW. He is expected to be out for around a month, along with Mitchell Aubusson. Heath L’Estrange and Vincent Leuluai come onto the bench to cover for them. SKD also moves into the centres and Nene Macdonald comes onto the wing.
Dragons = No changes, with Shane Pumipi added to the team as 18th man.
History
Overall = Roosters 13 Draw 1 Dragons 17
Last 5 matches = Roosters 4 Dragons 1
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 11 Dragons 9
Verdict
The Roosters have a host of troubles at the moment, but the Dragons are going to need a complete 80minute performance to even have a chance at victory. They will be a different quality team compared to the Tigers and the Dragons are going to be tested early. The Roosters will know that now is the time for them to start their climb up the ladder and will aim to make a statement with a win here. With their confidence growing, the Roosters should run up a large total on their opponents, as they have an 80% strike rate of 13+ points margin so far this season. If you need any more motivation, the Dragons have a 66% loss margin of 13+ points in 2014.
Suggested Bet
Roosters -8.5 @ $1.90
Home to roost = Roosters 13+ @ $2.30 – Look at the stats above…if you think they can get the job done and want more value, then take this option.
Raiders (15th) v Warriors (9th)
There are all sorts of problems in Canberra at the moment, ones that were only further highlighted with their loss in MNF. Ricky Stuart was spot on with his comments about them not being up to first grade standard at the moment, but he has to be careful how he chooses his words. At the end of the day some responsibility has to fall upon his shoulders, because player availability isn’t proving to be a distraction for them. Rather, execution is letting them down over 80 minutes. The score line flattered them in the end and they are only firming with the bookies to grab the wooden spoon. There are no such issues for the Warriors though, but a loss to the Sea Eagles last week removed the chance for them to move inside the Top 8. It was a game that demonstrated they still have improvement in their efforts, although it wasn’t made easy by the fact that they were missing their halfback. With road matches proving to be their downfall at certain points this season, the Warriors need to refocus their goals towards a victory. This is a match that they should win and prove that they deserve to be considered at the business end of the season.
Team News
Raiders = No changes but expect a few prior to KO following their effort on MNF.
Warriors = Late withdrawals last week Shaun Johnson and Feleti Mateo are named to return. Thomas Leuluai shifts back to the bench but will be likely to come into the team if Johnson is unfit.
History
Overall = Raiders 17 Warriors 14
Last 5 matches = Raiders 3 Warriors 2
At GIO Stadium = Raiders 10 Warriors 1
Verdict
The Raiders are in a lot of trouble at the moment but their record at home against the Warriors will have to count for something. In saying that, the Warriors teeter on the edge of the Top 8 and can ill-afford another loss on the road. Now is the time for them to make a statement about their campaign for this season. You can see that with a few points against them, the Raiders can shut down and their opponents can run up quite a total. The Rabbitohs let them back into the match but that score line flattered them and is perhaps swaying the odds at the line in their favour.
Suggested Bet
Warriors -6.5 @ $2.30
Rabbitohs (2nd) v Knights (14th)
The Rabbitohs powered into 2nd spot on the ladder last week, with a commanding victory over the Raiders. In saying that, they are still yet to set the world alight with any of their efforts. Unfortunately they also have injuries to contend with, but unlike past seasons, they have not reached their peak in the early stages of the season. The Knights probably reached their peak last week, handing the Roosters and upset loss on the road. It has been a difficult season to say the least for them and now they are playing for pride. That victory would’ve taken a lot out of the players involved; couple that with the performance last week in the “Rise for Alex” round and the next few weeks really could be anything. The Rabbitohs have everything ahead of them now and will not want to drop a match against an opponent that is as lowly placed as the Knights are in season 2014. In an interesting side note, the Rabbitohs have chosen to take this game to Cairns and it will be a great spectacle for the fans in this area to witness.
Team News
Rabbitohs = No changes named, but a several are expected with injuries to John Sutton and Sam Burgess. Luke Keary is likely to start at 5/8 but there is no clear indication of who will replace Burgess at lock.
Knights = Kurt Gidley shifts to 5/8 for the injured Jarrod Mullen, with Tyrone Roberts named to play halfback.
History
Overall = Rabbitohs 10 Knights 25
Last 5 matches = Rabbitohs 4 Knights 1
At Barlow Park = Never played at the ground
Verdict
Despite backing up from MNF and having to travel to Cairns for a home match, the Rabbitohs should have no trouble beating the Knights. That means the decision becomes a matter of how much they will win by. The Knights were gritty in their efforts last week and they will need to ensure the same level of effort is produced here. So far this season, the Rabbits have won 10/11 matches by 13+, while the Knights have lost 7/12 by the same margin. There is no reason why the Rabbitohs cannot run up a similar tally; even with several players missing they are still dangerous.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 13+ @ $2.10
Tigers (11th) v Storm (6th)
The Tigers have again experience a week of turmoil, culminating in the public spat around the uncertainty of their coach. This all starts from the top, with a dysfunctional board running the club making it an unhappy place to be. At the same time, the Storm appeared to be back to their best last week against the Broncos, turning out a 22-point victory on the road and letting the rest of the competition know that they are not finished with just yet. The injury to Cronk during Origin appears to have rejuvenated his approach to the game and it is working wonders for the rest of the team. It is certainly a happier place to be than the Tigers, but times of trouble and unrest can often galvanise a team and bring about their best football.
Team News
Tigers = No changes, but several reports suggest Luke Brooks is battling a shoulder injury.
Storm = Dayne Weston and Kurt Mann are added to an extended bench, suggesting that there could be a few players in doubt in their positions. If not, they will drop out prior to KO.
History
Overall = Tigers 9 Storm 15
Last 5 matches = Tigers 2 Storm 3
At Campbelltown Stadium = Tigers 0 Storm 2
Verdict
The issues in front of the Tigers were evident in their loss last week to the Dragons, while the Storm are only going to prove to be a tougher test. Injuries to key players will make the task of winning this match increasingly difficult and it is hard to go past the Storm. If the Tigers create early pressure and points, they are a chance of keeping this margin close, but the Storm were commanding in their efforts and have to assert their position on the competition ladder. They should be able to cover the line and with the lack of playmakers, they may not be able to score enough points to overcome the Storm.
Suggested Bet
Storm 13+ @ $2.30
Tigers claw = Marika Koroibete FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – He was passed up by the Tigers and has landed at the Storm. Expect the flying winger to be out to exact revenge on the team that cut him loose. What better way to achieve this than scoring a crucial try in the match.
Good luck!
Scooby
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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