The race towards the Finals is firmly underway and the contention for the remaining spots in the Top 8 is going to be close. As it stands, sides ranked 5^th-11^th have a 4-point difference and dropping a game now could be the disparity between making the Finals and missing out altogether. We are going to see some desperate football in coming weeks and it all makes for exciting viewing. Along with this, there is also the make up of the Top 4 that still has to be decided. The battle for this isn’t as close and the difference from 1^st to 4^th is 7-points and it appears as though the Rabbitohs and Roosters are going to finish 1^st and 2^nd. Again, the uncertainty around the final standings is increasing and the betting markets are a reasonable guide for what is expected to happen. The Roosters are the favourites at the moment and the Rabbitohs are on the second line of betting but this competition is much more than a “two horse race”. You can never write off any team that has momentum and a side that just scrapes into the Finals after a late charge can often carry more confidence and are in the habit of playing “must win football”. Even if your team isn’t a chance of making the Final’s, you’re still going to have a level of interest that will draw you to the contests simply because you enjoy watching a quality game of rugby league.

Newcastle Knights v Brisbane Broncos

Friday night football kicks off with a must-win game for the Broncos as they travel down to Newcastle. The Broncos were able to keep their slim, Finals hopes alive with a narrow victory last week over the Cowboys. They currently sit in 12^th spot on the table and are 4 points away from the Top 8. Their season has been disappointing thus far and in recent weeks, news has surfaced that several of their players have been told to look elsewhere next season for contracts. This can go either way but a player that has any brains, will realise that he is now on show to other clubs (and competitions) and needs to demonstrate his worth to capture a contract and prolong his playing career. Their improving performances may also release the pressure upon coach Anthony Griffin, who’s coaching credentials are coming into question with their fledging chances. The fact is that they possess too many quality players to miss the Finals and a review of their season must take place. It is ironic that the man that is plotting their downfall is one of the major reasons why the Broncos were able to build themselves up to the level that has gained them several premierships. Wayne Bennett’s record speaks for itself but one of the greatest coaches in the games history is finding it difficult to make this Newcastle team “turn up” each week for a game of rugby league. If they were to miss the Finals, it would be the second consecutive year this has occurred and generally, coaches in the NRL do not last too much longer with a record like that. They were tested last week against the Roosters in a match that was always going to be a measure of where they are currently at. They are one of the form teams of the competition and comprehensively beat the Knights in all areas to capture a victory. It was a leveling effort from the Knights and demonstrated just how far away they are from the top teams in this competition. They may make the Finals, but their success beyond that remains to be seen. If they win here, it will not answer many more questions; however what it will do is provide them with a greater chance of making the Finals. Once they are there, they can focus their energy on staying alive for several weeks to come. It is time for the experienced players within the team to stand up and their forwards need to take greater ownership of the game against a strong pack of forwards. A lot is on the line here and the while the Knights are not too far away from it, the Broncos are playing for their season and this game is promising to be a very exciting contest.

Newcastle Knights

The obvious omission this week is Willie Mason from the front row after he suffered a fractured cheekbone in “that” hit from SBW. It was a sickening blow to see but there were a few reports around early that Mason didn’t actually sustain the injury in that tackle. He has also suffered a calf strain so regardless of the hit, he was destined for an extended stay on the sideline. Zane Tetevano is called into the side after playing as 18^th man last week. Bennett has played around with his bench a little this week and Adam Cuthbertson has come into the side in jersey 17. Korbin Sims has been named as 18^th man this week and despite being named in jersey 17 last week, he was left out of the team. One area the Knights could improve on is the impact that is offered from their bench and the inclusion of Sims is going to go a long way to that occurring. Whether or not Bennett decides to go this way is another thing but one facet they do not want to lose a battle to the Broncos, is in the forwards.

Brisbane Broncos

There was further pain for the Broncos and their title hopes as the very promising Alex Glenn has been ruled out of this match with a thumb injury. Glenn was playing out in the centres following the omission of Jack Reed and it was a good move to strengthen the defence on the edges. As a ready-made defensive replacement, David Stagg has been promoted from the bench and will start on the edge. Ben Hannant has again missed selection through injury and despite being expected back this week, he has not been named. Mitchell Dodds has been promoted to the starting side in his place. The two new faces on the bench are Dunamis Lui and Nick Slyney, who will have their work cut out for them, but will be out to make an impression; and make a spot in the side their own.

Recent History

Overall = Knights 12 Broncos 27

Last 5 games = Knights 1 Broncos 4

At Hunter Stadium = Knights 9 Broncos 13

Stats that matter

• If the completion and error rates are anything to go by, this game is expected to be a fairly high quality contest with little mistakes made. The Broncos are the best in the competition at completions with 77.3%, but the Knights are just behind them in 3^rd spot with 75%. As for errors, the Broncos average 9.1 per game (1^st) and the Knights are just behind them with 9.7 (2^nd).
• One of the problems for the Broncos is missed tackles and that is leading to the Broncos to leaking easy points. They average 29.3 misses a game (13^th) and concede19.9 (=8^th). As for the Knights, they average 26.9 missed tackles per game (7^th) and concede just 17.4 points in defence (5^th).
• The Knights appear capable of scoring more points in their counterparts. They average 22.2 points per game (4^th) whereas the Broncos may have a difficult time of matching this as they are able to score just 17.9 per game (12^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Knights $1.50 Broncos $2.65

Centrebet = Knights $1.48 Broncos $2.72

Sportsbet = Knights $1.50 Broncos $2.65

Betfair = Knights $1.43 Broncos $2.80

Verdict

The Knights do appear to be the superior team in this contest but I am still completely unsure of the Broncos. Despite their performance this season, they still possess the talent on their rosters to spring a shock and make a run towards the Finals. In saying that, the Cowboys have not set the world alight and they were only able to beat them by 2-points. If the Knights do want to be considered as genuine contenders, this is a match that they will have to win and completely shut the Broncos out of the game. Also supporting the chance of the Knights winning is the fact that this match will be on their home soil. I am confident that they can get the job done; however I am expecting this game to be very close. The Broncos attack isn’t going to the trouble the Knights too much, but their defensive structure may hold the Knights attack in place for majority of the game.

Suggested Bet

Knights 1-12 @ $2.85

More value on offer = Knights 7-12 @ $5 – With the line set at -6.5 and the average difference between the two sides being around 6 points, this match is set to be either on or more than a converted try margin. The Knights have a strong enough defence to hold the Broncos and may just get the wind in their sails to score enough points to win by this margin.

From start to finish = Knights/Knights (HT/FT Double) @ $2.05 – This game should be close at halftime but the Knights may just edge ahead and be able to go one with the victory. This isn’t to suggest that they are going to lead the entire way but at the interval and fulltime, they should be ahead to give you the chance to double your money.

Penrith Panthers v Sydney Roosters

The other game this Friday night is taking place out at Centrebet Stadium as the Panthers host the competition favourites, the Roosters. Many people are now believing that the Roosters are the team to beat, despite sitting in 2^nd position on the table. If they are wishing to fly “under the radar”, they are not going the right way about it. They are playing an exciting brand of football that relies heavily upon the performance of their defence and then making the most of the attacking opportunities that they are given. For those that doubt their credentials because of Mitchell Pearce, think again! This arena is completely different to SOO football and the pressure that he was under in that series is relieved somewhat by the players he has around him. I alluded to that point last week and he has a very strong forward pack setting a platform for him each week. James Maloney also appears to be benefitting from this and there is no expectation around their immediate need for success. This is a work in progress that has been building since November last year and they have had more than 3-pressure games to make this work. Some would argue that they are also benefitting from a better coaching staff and the game plan that they are developing each week. The Panthers fans would love to be in the same position as their opponents and avoid the involvement of “must-win” games. They are sitting in 10^th spot and are 2-points outside the Top 8. No one expected them to be in this position at this stage of the season but now they are there, people are expecting them to be competitive enough to give themselves every chance of staying alive in September. It is an uphill battle for them and majority of their efforts are going to be hampered by the injury toll the club is continuing to go through. Last week, they were comprehensively beaten by the Sharks and took a major dent to their “for and against” that may be the deciding factor in their success. A chance to return home and play will assist their chances of winning this game but their 30-6 loss in Round 8 to the Roosters is going to play on their mind somewhat. Although the score line suggests otherwise, they were competitive and the Roosters players were made to work for the victory. Both sides have developed and improved since that outing and we are going to see just how far they have come along in their efforts. It may not be the most exciting clash of the weekend and appears to be a foregone conclusion, but this Panthers side have produced several upsets this season and they are going to be trying everything to catch the Roosters off guard and grab a victory.

Penrith Panthers

A few players returning this week and being able to go a week without a player suffering an injury will help the Panthers. Mose Masoe returns from a 1-week suspension and he is immediately reinstated to the side, albeit on the bench. This means that Sam Anderson misses out and Cleary has chosen to retain Jeremy Latimore in the starting side. Whether or not he chooses to start the game this way is another thing and before he was suspended, Masoe was offering a great deal of trouble for opposing teams. Josh Mansour has been added to the bench as 18^th man, but it is likely that he will miss out on this game. He is an outside back and his inclusion in the side would either force a major reshuffle in the centres or an omission of one of the wingers. Despite being told that he was not wanted for next season, the form of captain Kevin Kingston has remained strong. They are obviously aiming at starting James Segeyaro up front next year and his minutes in each match are increasing. Meaning no disrespect to Kingston, the Panthers look a much better team when Segeyaro is on the field.

Sydney Roosters

The biggest omission for the Roosters this week is the suspension of SBW. He can consider himself a little lucky to only be out for the next two weeks and perhaps there will be a positive in this outcome. He will be given a chance to rest up and avoid damaging his volatile body further. It will mean less attacking option for the Roosters and it will be interesting to see if the impact of his absence is similar to that of the Rabbitohs and their star, Greg Inglis. In for SBW is Mitchell Aubusson, who is no stranger to the starting side and wins a promotion from the bench. Unfortunately missing out last week, Aidan Guerra has been called into the side to cover Aubusson’s spot on the bench and Isaac Liu will aim to make the most of another chance that he has been given.

Recent History

Overall = Panthers 30 Draw 1 Roosters 49

Last 5 games = Panthers 2 Roosters 3

At Centrebet Stadium = Panthers 17 Roosters 23

Stats that matter

• The Roosters defence is something that Premierships are built upon. They average just 20.9 missed tackles per match (1^st) and are the best at the competition when it comes to conceding points, averaging just 11.6 per week. The Panthers could take something away from this stat and aim to limit the average of 30 misses in defence (15^th) and the leaking of 19.9 points per game (=8^th).
• The Roosters do have a few flaws in their play and the Panthers are actually better when it comes to completion rates and mistakes. The Panthers complete 75.5% of their sets (2^nd) and make just 9.9 errors (3^rd). The Roosters aren’t too far behind them though, they complete 72.5% of sets (7^th) and commit 10.5 errors each outing (5^th).
• The Roosters have a quality pack of forwards and are very difficult for teams to handle. They average 9.11m per carry of the ball (3^rd) and making just 8.82m per carry (11^th), will make the task of winning this game a little more difficult for the Panthers.

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Panthers $5.00 Roosters $1.18

Centrebet = Panthers $5.15 Roosters $1.18

Sportsbet = Panthers $4.75 Roosters $1.20

Betfair = Panthers $5.00 Roosters $1.21

Verdict

As the above odds suggest, this match is heading for a one sided outcome. The Panthers have been gallant in several matches this season but you have to remember, the Sharks beat them last week by 28 points. The week before that, the Roosters hammered the Sharks by 40 points. This game could be anything really and the one thing that I am sure of is that it probably will not be a close contest. The Roosters are sending a message to the rest of the competition and doing it with force. If the Panthers were at full strength, perhaps this game would be a little closer but as the two sides will face one another this week, it is a mismatch. The Roosters will not have it all their own way though, given what we have seen from the Panthers so far, they will make the Roosters work for their victory and it may be a tight game in the opening 20 minutes. Nonetheless, from then on this game should open up and the Roosters should be able to record another resounding victory.

Suggested Bet

Roosters 13+ @ $2.05

Crowing loudly! = Roosters 19+ @ $2.60 – If you want more value in your option, then this bet is for you. The Roosters have a sturdy defence that rarely leaks points and this could make scoring hard to come by for the Panthers. With this in mind and the Roosters attacking capabilies, this margin could get out to a very comfortable margin for the visitors.

Right side, strong side = Roger Tuivasa-Sheck FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – In 4 of the last 5 games, the Roosters have scored their first try on the right hand side of the field. There are several players that are capable of crossing first on this side of the field first but RTS has been in exciting form recently and has the ability to be on the end of an attacking movement or even a kick.

New Zealand Warriors v Cronulla Sharks

In a sign of things to come in the closing rounds of the competition, the NRL has chosen to introduce a 3pm KO on Saturday afternoons, with an aim to possibly announce them for coming seasons. For a long time now, fans have expressed a desire to see Saturday afternoon football return to their screens and it will be interesting to see if attendance to the games is increased, as the timeslot is “family friendly”. The first game to experiment with this timeslot this season will be an exciting contest between the Warriors and Sharks. There is a lot on the line in this match and as each win edges the Warriors towards the Top 8, they are also waiting for a team within that set up to fall. The sides currently in there are set for a battle to retain their spot, especially when the Warriors are playing like they are. Last week, they were terrific against the Melbourne Storm and displayed disciplined and exciting football to overthrow their opponents. Not many sides have achieved this yet, but the Warriors have beaten 3 out of the 4 Top 4 teams so far and have proven that if they get to the Finals, they are going to a force to be reckoned with. As for the Sharks, they are toiling away down in the Shire and trying to put the lingering ASADA investigation behind them as they make their own charge towards the Finals. They are still yet to gain all of their players back from injury but the pressure on the players in sure to be increasing. With their minds perhaps elsewhere, they are going to have to rise above the rumours and innuendo to put together winning performances. An outing like they had last week against the Panthers is going to aid their cause, however in the same breath, it was only two weeks ago that they were comprehensively beaten by the Roosters 40-nil. In terms making the Top 8, they’re in a stable position for now and they sit in 6^th spot on 24 points (equal 5^th but a -13 points difference). In saying that, a few losses could spell trouble and games like this one are extremely valuable for the Warriors as it halts the progress of a side ahead of them. Todd Carney has been in sublime form recent for the Sharks and they need to use this to their advantage. He is one player that is separate from the ASADA investigations and the leadership qualities that he has demonstrated in recent weeks have benefitted the Sharks positively. Nonetheless, they cannot rely upon one individual to keep them on track towards their goals and he will eventually need the support of the other members of the squad. This game will mean a lot to more to just the sides competing in it and the overall contest is sure to be compelling viewing.

New Zealand Warriors

The Warriors are lucky this week and they have named an unchanged lineup from last week. This has been a key to their success in recent weeks and probably why they have won the games that they have. It is no surprise that one of the catalysts to their success is their halfback Shaun Johnson. He has been electric to say the least and he is an exciting player to watch. His speed and acceleration off the mark has to be up there with the fastest players in the competition and it is great to see him in full-flight. He will be the first to admit it though; the forwards have contributed positively to his improving performance. Their second-phase play created via offloads is troubling and opposition sides need to ensure they wrap up the ball and get numbers into the tackle. If there is one fragility of this team, it is the defence of Konrad Hurrell. For every point that he creates/scores in attack, he is vulnerable to attacking raids from opponents. Expect Matthew Elliot to be working hard this week on patching up those problems.

Cronulla Sharks

The biggest boost to their chances of winning this match is the inclusion of their captain Paul Gallen for this match. It is a timely return for their captain and his inclusion in the side has forced Chris Heighington back to the bench and Tyrone Peachey is relegated back to 18^th man. Gallen offers a lot to any team that he plays in and it has been a lengthy stay on the sidelines that saw him miss Game 3 of the SOO series. His presence alone will release the pressure on the rest of the pack and they will relish the metres he gains in the middle of the field. The attacking ability of the Sharks was in full-force last week and this can be attributed to the form of Todd Carney. I pointed out earlier in the season that Carney needed to take the line on a little more with the ball and now that he is doing that, defensive lines are unsure of who to mark up on; thus opening up more attacking opportunities.

Recent History

Overall = Warriors 14 Sharks 16

Last 5 games = Warriors 2 Sharks 3

At MT Smart Stadium = Warriors 8 Sharks 5

Stats that matter

• Both sides are struggling for consistency in their completion rate but when they are able to hold onto the ball, they can turn out a very solid performance. For the season, the Warriors average 71.2% (12^th) and the Sharks are just behind them in 13^th with 71.1%. In their last 3 victories, the Warriors have average 81.9%, while the Sharks have averaged 81%.
• The Warriors are proving difficult to handle and despite their start to the season, they still average 4.4 line breaks per game (4^th). The Sharks have been unable to perform at the same level and average just 3.4 per game (=13^th), yet they average 5.5 in their last two victories.
• The Sharks are strong when it comes to holding their opponents and they concede an average of 18.8 points per game (6^th). The Warriors have had their troubles this season and concede 23.6 points each week to their opponents (14^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Warriors $1.45 Sharks $2.80

Centrebet = Warriors $1.41 Sharks $3.00

Sportsbet = Warriors $1.42 Sharks $2.95

Betfair = Warriors $1.41 Sharks $2.94

Verdict

This game is shaping as one of the most difficult games of the weekend to select. The Warriors are a team with a lot of momentum and they are going to be boosted by playing on their home turf. The Sharks played very well last week and their chances of winning this game are increased with the return of Paul Gallen. It could go either way but the momentum is certainly with the Warriors after another strong performance against the Storm last week. I think that the Warriors are going to be able to emulate that effort, but it will be a very close contest. If anything, you should aim to shape your bets around this and hopefully the form of both sides remains true.

Suggested Bet

Warriors 1-12 @ $3

Tri your luck = Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.90 – If you do not want to make a call on this match, but still believe it will be a close contest, then consider this bet. Both sides are very evenly matched and it could come down to one of the last attacking movements to decide a winner.

A game of two halves = Draw/Warriors (HT/FT Double) @ $15 – As stated above, the two sides are very close and this may mean they head into the break locked up on the scoreboard. As I am tipping the Warriors to prevail, the value on offer for this option is very enticing to say the least.

Parramatta Eels v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

The second game this Saturday will KO out at Parramatta at 5:30pm as the Eels host the Sea Eagles. With their dwindling success this season, attendances at Parramatta games are dropping at a rapid rate. It is no surprise to see the fans shy away from their beloved club, their enthusiasm and effort on the field is hardly going to excite even the most hardened rugby league fan. The Parramatta marketing department had to come up with something to promote this game and rather than focus on the side’s current performance, they have gone back in time to 1983 in a celebration of success and glory. It that year, the Eels defeated the Sea Eagles in the Grand Final and it was part of a golden decade for the Eels. However 30 years on, a different set of players are not doing this club proud. Last week the Bulldogs comprehensively beat them and the situation inside the football operations can be explained by the “short kick” they attempted from the opening whistle. It set the scene for the night and it was amazing to even see them cross the try line, let alone do it twice in the game. As for where they are heading, they are obvious favourites for the spoon (if they haven’t won it already!) and the only thing that will spark them into gear will be pride in their own performance. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen. If not, the Sea Eagles are going to deal them another heavy loss. It was only a few weeks ago that these two sides met and the boys from Manly were able to snap a losing streak that has since seen them go undefeated. Of course, the real talking point of that match was the “fight” between Mitchell Allgood and Steve Matai in the closing minutes of the contest. There is no love lost between the two and fans of the game will be tuning in to see these two players square off again. No doubt Matai will have his radar out (as well as the other Sea Eagles players) for when Allgood takes the field. In terms of their performances, it would’ve been pleasing for those involved with the club to see them handle the Tigers in the fashion they did. That game was always going to be a tricky one to get past and while it still demonstrated minor flaws within their team, it showed that they are a side that is about to peak at the right time of the season. There is minimal doubt about the outcome of this contest, however the potential rematch between Allgood and Matai as well as a fierce rivalry is sure to make this game worth watching and hopefully investing money on.

Parramatta Eels

It seems as though what ever changes the Eels make will matter little at the end of the day. The overall enthusiasm and commitment of the team appears to be at an all-time low. That was obvious after the Bulldogs scored their first try and they were standing behind the line as if it was the Bulldogs 10^th in the match. This week, after the injury to halfback Luke Kelly, Api Pewhairangi has been moved to 5/8 and Ben Roberts has been shifted up to halfback. It is intriguing to say the least that Ricky Stuart has chosen to leave out Chris Sandow after failing to show any improvement in the NSW Cup. This could only be the beginning of something bigger and Sandow needs to change more than his on-field performance in order to turn around his form. Apart from that, everything else remains the same and fans will be looking forward to the “rematch” between Mitchell Allgood and Steve Matai, but they will have to wait a little longer as Allgood will start off the bench.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

After another MNF fixture, the Sea Eagles have had little time to completely analyse the fitness of their players. This week they have chosen to name the same team, but have added James Hasson (18^th) and Peta Hiku (19^th) to an extended bench. Hasson was an omission from Monday’s match and David Gower took his place in the side. Gower has again been named here and will take the field in jersey 16. As for Hiku’s inclusion, there was an injury obtained by Steve Matai in their win and he did leave the field before the fulltime whistle. This was touted as a precautionary measure and he is expected to take the field here. As stated earlier, the fans will want this to happen and it will be interesting to see just how he reacts following their first confrontation.

Recent History

Overall = Eels 45 Draw 4 Sea Eagles 80

Last 5 games = Eels 1 Sea Eagles 4

At Parramatta Stadium = Eels 9 Sea Eagles 10

Stats that matter

• The Eels completion rate could be the root of majority of their problems with the ball. They are ranked in 14^th spot and complete 70.7% for the season. It doesn’t appear to be too bad, however they can get a lot worse and they did that in Round 4 with 57.1%.
• As Brett Stewart gets back to full fitness, the Sea Eagles become even more dangerous however they have proved difficult to handle this season anyway. They are ranked in 3^rd spot for line breaks with an average of 5.1 per game. The Eels are the worst in the competition when it comes to this an average paltry 2.9 line breaks per game.
• The Sea Eagles are difficult to break down in defence and it is no surprise that they are ranked 3^rd and concede and average of 15.3 points per game. As for the Eels, they are in an ugly situation and concede an average of 28.7 points per game (16^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Eels $7.50 Sea Eagles $1.10

Centrebet = Eels $7.50 Sea Eagles $1.10

Sportsbet = Eels $7.50 Sea Eagles $1.10

Betfair = Eels $7.60 Sea Eagles $1.12

Verdict

Just like last week, a game involving the Eels is going to be a matter of how much their opponents beat them by rather than “who will win”. They lack conviction, enthusiasm and effort; with a win seeming like a world away with their recent performances. The Sea Eagles are also a quality outfit that will be wary of how a lack of mental preparation will hamper their efforts. That would be the only chance that the Eels would have of winning this game, otherwise, this game looks set for another Eels thrashing. There isn’t too much value around this game, but take a look at the bets below and if you do not like the minimal value, then invest your money in other games this weekend.

Suggested Bet

Sea Eagles 19+ @ $1.90

Exact choice pays dividends = Sea Ealges 31-40 @ $6 – You may have to search a little to find this market but the value on offer is worth it. The Sea Eagles will aim to completely shut the Eels out of the game and despite them playing out of home, they appear to be offering little to trouble them on the scoreboard.

Tumbling Taufua = Jorge Taufua FTS and/or LTS @ $6 – Taufua is a dynamic and damaging ball runner and the Sea Eagles are certain to target the weakness of the Eels right edge. His chances of scoring are also enhanced with the fact that Steve Matai attracts two defenders to him when he has the ball, usually leaving Taufua unmarked on the outside.

North Queensland Cowboys v South Sydney Rabbitohs

The final game to round out “Super Saturday” this week heads up to Townsville, as the Cowboys host the competition-leading Rabbitohs. The loss last week to the Broncos spelled the end to the season for the Cowboys and subsequently the fallout from that performance has continued to be felt. Early on Monday, the club told coach Neil Henry that he would no longer be required beyond this season, spelling an end to a 5-year association with the club. It is no surprise to see this decision made, however it is perplexing as to why it has taken this long to make it. Henry has a 46.5% strike rate with the club and under his guidance, they have made the Finals twice and their best finish was 5^th. It has hardly been a successful partnership but perhaps Henry isn’t entirely to blame. Their star play maker Johnathan Thurston came out following the announcement and openly admitted that the some of the squad members were also to blame for their predicament and they needed to take responsibility as well as the coach. Either way, it is going to be intriguing to see just how this squad finishes the season and whether they will be able to perform knowing that the man giving the instructions will be leaving at the end of the season. Names have already been given as possible replacements, but that is a discussion for a whole other day. Over at Redfern, the Rabbitohs were able to claw their way back into the winner’s circle with a very impressive display over the Titans. It was an away game that was always going to prove difficult to handle, especially after they were surprisingly beaten the week prior by the Dragons. They responded in a way that sent a message to the rest of the competition that they are in fact a classy outfit and the Dragons loss was a minor issue that they have moved past. Also, it exemplified the fact that they are not a “one man team” and can win without Greg Inglis. His return to the side (within 3 weeks) is only going to improve their play and for the moment they will have to rely heavily upon the monstrous performance of the Burgess brothers. The sight of them on the field and in full flight must be a scary one for any team to face but the Titans forwards, who do possess some strong defenders, were unable to limit their impact on the game. This meant that they were able to create extra room for the halves and outside backs to work off. If you are trying to beat the Rabbitohs, you need to limit their options at the line but somehow, their halves are finding plenty of ways around scoring. It is interesting to note that they have chosen to stay on the road following their trip to the Gold Coast and they have continued north towards Townsville. No doubt their coach Michael Maguire will have them working very hard and under his watchful eye, it will be anything but a holiday for their squad. It appears as though they will be able to handle the Cowboys in this contest, but as we have seen in the past, a change of coach (or sacking) can often catalyse a change in performance. If it does happen here and the Cowboys play to their potential, the Rabbitohs may find it a little more difficult to get the 2-points in this game.

North Queensland Cowboys

The Cowboys have a host of changes this week and it is no surprise considering the news that surfaced earlier in the week. You cannot help but think it is a little bit of “too little, too late” for them and the changes cannot altar the predicament they are currently in. Rookie Kyle Feldt has been given a chance to make his NRL debut this week on the wing and he takes Kalifa FaiFai Loa’a spot. In the forwards, Joel Riethmuller has replaced the injured Dallas Johnson. It is shame to see him leave the game in this manner, but since announcing his retirement last week, he has suffered an injury and it will be the last that we see of an extremely strong and tough defender. At hooker, Ray Thompson has been named to start in place of Anthony Mitchell, who has failed to make the most of his opportunity and has been dropped back to QLD Cup. Joining Mitchell there will be Ricky Thorby and this has opened up a few spots on the bench. The new faces there are Scott Moore, Tariq Sims and Jason Taumalolo who will all aim to add their impact on the match. Scott Bolton (18^th) and Rory Kostjasyn (19^th) have also been named but are likely to miss out if all players are proven fit to play.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

There were a few late changes made to the Rabbitohs team last week and the same side that took the field there is retained here. In that match, Andrew Everingham was left out of the team and a healthy Matt King took his spot on the wing. Nathan Merrit played fullback and Dylan Farrell was included to start on the other wing. There is a slight reshuffle in the forwards; Sam Burgess has been moved from lock to start in the front row, alongside one of his brothers, George. This means that Ben Lowe will start at lock and Dave Tyrrell has been relegated to 18^th man. He will also join Justin Hunt (19^th), who was dropped form the starting side to accommodate Farrell’s inclusion. Tom Burgess will also come off the bench and it will be an exciting sight to see the three out of the four brothers playing together. Youngster Luke Keary has been named as the utility replacement instead of Nathan Peats and as I have said since he made his debut, the hype around this rookie is massive and he demonstrated just how talented he was with a two try performance in the closing stages of their win over the Titans. Expect more of the same here and it is a nice ace for Maguire to have up his sleeve if the game gets tight and they need something special to call upon.

Recent History

Overall = Cowboys 9 Draw 1 Rabbitohs 13

Last 5 games = Cowboys 1 Rabbitohs 4

At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 5 Rabbitohs 6

Stats that matter

• The Rabbitohs were on fire last week and you only have to look at their stats for some of the story. They completed 78.4% of their sets, made an average of 10.14m per carry of the ball and missed only 14 tackles. A message to the rest of the competition that they are not done just yet.
• As for their average metres made per carry, the Rabbitohs are the best in the competition. Thanks to their monstrous forward pack, they average 9.15m per carry and the Cowboys will have to lift their average of 8.68m (13^th).
• Reflective of their standing on the table, the Rabbitohs ranked highly for points scored and conceded. In attack, they average 26.3 points per game (1^st) and in defence they concede just 14.2 (2^nd). It is a different story for the Cowboys though, they concede 19.9 points (10^th) and score just 17.4 per game (13^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Cowboys $3.25 Rabbitohs $1.35

Centrebet = Cowboys $3.15 Rabbitohs $1.38

Sportsbet = Cowboys $3.10 Rabbitohs $1.38

Betfair = Cowboys $3.35 Rabbitohs $1.37

Verdict

Given their current plight, it seems as though the Rabbitohs should be able to hold the Cowboys at bay. However the Cowboys are such a frustrating and volatile team that this is a game that they could produce an upset following the news that has broken this week. Then again, a 2-point loss to the Broncos is hardly going to suggest that they are going to be competitive against one of the best sides in the competition. Even if they are playing at home, it will take a monumental effort and perhaps a lapse of concentration from the Rabbitohs for the Cowboys to win this one. The Bunnies have their opponents beaten in every area of this game even before they take the field and they should be able to handle their opponents with ease. The Roosters are breathing down their neck and staying on the road following their win over the Titans should make it easier for them to acclimatise to the humid Townsville conditions. They can score a lot of points too, so expect this game to eventually to get out to a very comfortable margin for the visitors.

Suggested Bet

Rabbitohs 13+ @ $2.35

Rampent Rabbitohs = Rabbitohs 19+ @ $3.50 – If you’re confident that the Rabbitohs will be able to score plenty of points and hold their oppoenents, then consider this option. The Cowboys are going to find it very difficult to score points to say the least and the Rabbitohs will not be willing to leak as many as they did against the Dragons.

Oh Sammy boy = Sam Burgess to score a try @ $2.50 – I have taken a safer option over the FTS and/or LTS option where he is paying $13. I recommend considering that highly though because he has scored either the first or last try 3 times in their last 4 outings. Either way, I like his chances to cross the line during this game.

Canberra Raiders v Melbourne Storm

Sunday footy will head out to Canberra this week as the 2pm games kicks off, what is promising to be, an exciting contest between the Storm and the Raiders. The Storm will be out for revenge in this match and if you can remember back to Round 8, it was the Raiders who were able to spring an upset 24-20. That game demonstrated just what the Raiders are capable of in their play and it is a little disappointing that they have not been able to develop beyond that contest. In saying that, that are sitting inside the Top 8 on 24 points and while being 7^th, they are on level points with the Bulldogs but find themselves suffering from a disastrous points difference (-40). A few losses would make it even more difficult for them to win but if their recent form is anything to go by, they are aiming to give themselves every chance possible of returning to the Finals. Last week they were able to continue the “Dragons-hoodoo” that they’ve enjoyed over the last 10 years. More importantly for them, it was a win away from their home ground, perhaps suggesting that they are in fact a team that has turned the corner when it comes to playing on the road. It is frustrating to say the least but given their current standing on the table, they are going to have to learn to win away from home as many, if not all, of their Finals games will be played at opponent’s venue. While the Raiders appear to be improving with each performance, the Storm are having a harder time of maintaining consistency within their football. Following a week off with the bye, they travelled across to New Zealand where the Warriors upset them. As well as the Warriors played, the Storm still made crucial errors that were not made by them in the opening parts of the season. There was the possibility that a “post-SOO” lull would occur and we are going to need a few more weeks to decide on the outcome of that prediction. They have the talent there, it is just a matter of them using it and keeping the “Big 3” involved in the game as much as possible. It is nowhere near panic stations for them just yet, but if they continue to lose, there is the possibility that they would slip out of the Top 4 towards the end of the regular season. They will not want to put themselves in that position, yet standing in their way in this match is a Raiders team that appears to rise to another level when they are playing in front of their home crowd and will be buoyed by the confidence from their victory earlier in the season.

Canberra Raiders

The Raiders have no need to change their team from last week, as it was a fairly pleasing performance from them. There were a few changes to the team that was originally named compared to the one that took the field and the team that played there is named here. Sandor Earl was a late inclusion for Sami Sauiluma on the wing and despite sporting an interesting style of strapping; he was solid on the edge when needed. Josh Papalii was named to start up front and his dynamic display was a welcome to the Raiders quest for victory. It is something that they will need if they are to assert their dominance over the Storm forwards. As for the inclusion of Blake Ferguson, he was rumored to be playing last week following his return to training but that didn’t happen. He is still a chance to play here but you will have to wait until the final team is named. It is a tough decision to make and the Raiders will not want to rush him back into the side if he is not going to be there for the remainder of the season or his mind is going to be elsewhere.

Melbourne Storm

Just like the Raiders, the Storm have named an unchanged lineup for this game. There was perhaps a case for the Storm changing their side though, especially after they were off their game for majority of the Warriors contest. They made crucial errors when it mattered most and when they appeared to build a lot of momentum for a final late charge at the Warriors; they were their own worst enemy. As it stands, they have won just one game from their past 5 matches and the alarm bells are beginning to ring for this team. Craig Bellamy is admitting that they are in a better position as a team and fatigue is as much of a factor as it has been in the past. They need to go back to completing the basics and allow their class to do the talking. More so, they need to control the game from the ruck and their forwards need to set a strong platform for them.

Recent History

Overall = Raiders 9 Storm 23

Last 5 games = Raiders 3 Storm 2

At Canberra Stadium = Raiders 9 Storm 10

Stats that matter

• The Raiders are not doing themselves any favors when they have the ball in their possession. They complete just 70.6% of their sets and are ranked in 15^th spot in the competition. Furthermore, they average 11.8 errors and are again ranked lowly, this time in 13^th spot.
• Despite their failings, the Raiders still are competitive in the forwards. They make an average of 9.01m per carry and are ranked in 6^th. It should make for a very tough contest as the Storm are slightly ahead of them in 4^th spot with 9.03m per carry.
• The Storm may not be in the best vein of form, but we all know what they are capable of. For the season, they only concede 16.5 points per match (4^th) and have been able to score an average of 20.9 points (6^th). The Raiders are having a tougher time of it, they score just 18.7 points (10^th) and concede more in defence with 20.9 per game (12^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Raiders $2.30 Storm $1.65

Centrebet = Raiders $2.40 Storm $1.60

Sportsbet = Raiders $2.30 Storm $1.63

Betfair = Raiders $2.32 Storm $1.65

Verdict

Arguably the toughest match of the weekend, this game is going to be very difficult to select. The Storm are in a form slump and another loss last week to the Warriors on the road has compounded their problems further. Their task of winning does not become any easier as they have to travel to the nations capital for this game. It is a very hostile environment to say the least and the Raiders appear to lift to another level when they play at home. Then again, the Raiders have been poor at times this season and have the potential to turn out a disappointing performance. Even more confused? I think the best thing to do in this game is invest money around a close contest. For what it is worth, I will be tipping the Storm, but I believe that there are other games this weekend where you can make your money.

Suggested Bet

Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.85

Gold Coast Titans v Wests Tigers

The 3pm “match of the day” heads up to southern Queensland this week as the Gold Coast Titans look to return to winning form against a struggling Tigers outfit. This match is hardly one that is going to excite many people and it is a little frustrating that this contest will be shown on free-to-air TV. Given the recent performances of both teams, you would expect ratings for this game to be quite low but there are a few things that may entice the general rugby league fan towards this contest. The most important factor is the opportunity that the Titans still have to make the Top 8. They were travelling very well at the halfway point of the season and appeared destined to appear at the business end of the season. Since then, things have not gone according to plan and they have suffered through a horror injury toll. Not only that, their form has taken a massive blow and the ease at which their young halves were once operating at seems to have vacated this team in recent weeks. This decline is close to alarming levels, they sit 2-points outside the Top 8 on 20 and have a poor points difference to also overthrow (-51). It is time that the more experienced players within their side took a stance and got this side moving in the right direction but that is always going to be problematic when your team is playing without confidence. The Tigers will be the first to admit that and some would say that even contributed to the early departure of Benji Marshall from the club. He is still featuring in their team, however it is becoming visible that his poor individual form may be rubbing off onto the rest of the team. It is a tough call to make, but for a long time he has been the focal point of this side and when they are playing well, he receives majority of the praise. Robbie Farrah is still toiling away and he will take his place in the team next year regardless of where Marshall ends up. The Tigers players could do a lot worse than look to their inspirational skipper as a guide to how to perform when there is little to play for. Conceivably, the youngsters coming into the team may offer a youthful edge and we could see more amazing performance like the one from David Nofoaluma on MNF. Either way, the road ahead for them is a long one and shall the Titans fail to win this game (along with a few others), they could be heading for a similar fate and an early end to their season.

Gold Coast Titans

Injuries are hitting at the wrong stage of the season for the Titans and they are again going to be stretched by the players that are omitted. Furthermore, they are players in key positions and this is bound to affect their attacking ability. Jordan Rankin is out at fullback and David Mead, who moves from the wing, replaces him. The vacant spot there has been filled by Anthony Don, who returns to the side after a stint their earlier in the season. Albert Kelly has unfortunately been ruled out with a sternum injury and will be out for an indefinite amount of time. Aidan Sezer has been pushed up from 5/8 to halfback and Ashley Harrison will partner him in the halves. Harrison has moved from lock, meaning that there is again a reshuffle in the forwards. Greg Bird will start at lock instead of second row and the new face there is Ben Ridge. Luke Bailey (ankle) is also out of this clash and Luke Douglas is promoted from the bench to set a strong, early tempo. Unfortunately for them, they have also lost their hooker Matt Srama, but this is not the first time that it has happened this season. As was the case on that occasion, Beau Falloon is named and has proven that he is more than capable at this level. Some would argue that he could even be a better choice for the Titans and he will have an opportunity to prove himself here. As there have been a few players promoted, there are a few vacant spots on the bench. The new faces on the interchange are Ryan James, Luke O’Dwyer and Sam Irwin.

Wests Tigers

Not too much changes for the Tigers this week and unless there is an injury, it doesn’t appear as though their coach will altar much in the remaining games. Despite their standing on the table, it appears as though they are just hanging for the end of the season. This is probably the time when they should be aiming to try something new because there is little for them to lose. They attempted that to some extent against the Sea Eagles with Braith Anasta starting the game in the halves and Curtis Sironen coming off the bench. To say that worked would be a gross understatement and this week normality returns to their starting side and Anasta will come off the bench. Also on the bench, Keith Galloway will take his place in the side after being a late inclusion last week following a lengthy lay-off due to a peck injury. Shaun Spence was the player that missed out due to that and he has been named 18^th man here, but looks headed for a similar fate if all players are fit to play.

Recent History

Overall = Titans 5 Tigers 5

Last 5 games = Titans 2 Tigers 3

At Skilled Stadium = Titans 3 Tigers 2

Stats that matter

• The Tigers have struggled this season for consistency and their forwards have been a problem area for them. They have only averaged 8.62m per carry of the ball and are ranked in 15^th spot. The Titans have a strong pack of forwards and are ranked in 5^th with 9.02m, but they need to lift in their run home towards the Finals.
• How bad were the Titans last week? Well despite conceding 32 points to the Rabbitohs, they missed a shocking 62 tackles in defence and conceded 10 line breaks. No doubt they will be working hard on improving that this week.
• Neither side has been able to hold their opponents this season to a low total and they both average well over 20 points conceded each week. The Titans have allowed their opponents to average 22.6 points each week (13^th), however the Tigers have had a much tougher time and allowed an average of 26.1 points per game (15^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Titans $1.60 Tigers $2.40
Centrebet = Titans $1.60 Tigers $2.40
Sportsbet = Titans $1.60 Tigers $2.40
Betfair = Titans $1.64 Tigers $2.36

Verdict

Had this game been played before Round 13, when the Titans had their first bye, there would be no hesitation in taking them to win this contest. However since then, they have only won one game and have lost majority, if not all of their momentum. If this is to continue, they are going to find themselves out of contention sooner rather than later. Notwithstanding this, they are the more fancied team in this game because the Tigers season can be described as lackluster. There is little for them to play for at the moment and there only happens to be a few players that are demonstrating that they want to be out there. It is a tricky game though; the Titans will find it difficult to gain a spark on attack without their normal halfback, Albert Kelly, directing the plays. It may take a while for them to realise just how to beat the Tigers minus his inclusion and they may want to keep this game in the forwards as long as possible. They have a stronger pack to call upon and their bench will offer greater impact to the contest when they are called upon. As for the margin, this could get out to anything, but the Tigers showed some fight last week and I am expecting a similar effort. So lets stick to a fairly close game, but the Titans should get the win in this game and keep their minimal Finals hopes alive.

Suggested Bet

Titans 1-12 @ $3.10

Coast to this = Titans 7-12 @ $5.50 – If you want a little more value out of your selection, then consider this option. As stated above, the Tigers should make life difficult for the Titans but they should eventually get out to a comfortable margin. This for me, means by more than a converted try.

Flash Gordon = Kevin Gordon FTS ($7) and/or FTTS ($4.50) – Get ready for this statistic, in 5 of the last 6 games, Gordon has been the first try scorer for his team. This is probably leaning me towards that option (first team try scorer), especially considering none of these have been the first try of the match. Nonetheless, keep both options open and you are a good chance of collecting.

St George-Illawarra Dragons v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

The final game of Round 21 will take place on Monday night as two traditional rivals face off for the second time this season. In the first outing in Round 12, it was the Bulldogs that were able to prevail amid some very controversial circumstances. The Bulldogs lead 16-8 with 5 minutes remaining on the clock but converted try to the Dragons brought them back into the contest. The Dragons then received a penalty as the fulltime whistle went and Jamie Soward lined up up to take the conversion. He missed the kick and following that, a lot unraveled and changed at this club. Since then, Soward has been released and they have acquired the services of Josh Dugan. While they are still at the wrong end of the table, they have shown some conviction in their performances to suggest that they are in a better place than their standing suggests. Regardless, this season will still probably be thought of as a failure and it is hard to disagree with that. As for the Bulldogs, they’re in contention for the Finals and they need to continue on a 3-game winning streak that they are currently enjoying. In fact since Round 11, they have only lost 1-game and have benefited from a generous draw. Regardless, they have only played what has been in front of them each week and they have shown in the past that they are a quality team of footballers that is lead by a very creative and smart coach. A lot of the credit does have to go to Des Hasler but the Bulldogs also build a game plan around a strong pack of forwards. They are one of the biggest in the competition and on their day, they are a very difficult football team to stop. You cannot help but think that they are still missing something this season and the injury to Ben Barba will possibly remove the “x-factor” from their team. That remains to be seen but you can never write this team off at the business end of the season. They will not want to fall to a side that is as lowly placed as the Dragons but they demonstrated that they are still capable of producing an upset. This game is anything but a forgone conclusion and the rivalry that these two sides have will ensure that this contest is hotly contested and they will be playing for more than just the two competition points on offer.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

The Dragons will be buoyed by the news that Josh Dugan has chosen to sign with the team for another 4 seasons beyond this year. It was in fact the Bulldogs, who were rumored to be chasing Dugan as a possible replacement for Ben Barba if they were to let him go. However the Dragons have been rewarded for taking a chance on this troubled player with enormous potential. As for the team this week, they have chosen to carry the same 17 from their loss to the Raiders. It was disappointing to say the least, but their “hoodoo” against them continues. Furthermore, their attacking flaws were highlighted and the creativity within their attack was uninspiring. This is a problem that they have to fix before next year and perhaps this is the time that coach Steve Price should make the tough call on Nathan Fien.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

The biggest news for this team following their win over the Eels was the injury to Ben Barba. He has suffered an ankle injury and is not expected back until Round 26. In his absence, Sam Perrett has been moved from the wing to fullback. He has proven that he is a “safe” choice, however he has a lot of work to do in order to replace the spark and attacking flair that Barba offers. To cover for the shift, Krisnan Inu pushes out to the wing and Tim Lafai comes into the centres. It has been a rollercoaster ride for him this season and he has been recalled and dropped from this side more than you can count. He is a talented player and fans of the Bulldogs will be the first to tell you how they would like to see him become a regular starter in their side. As for the rest of the team, everything remains the same, including Sam Kasiano coming into the match off the bench. It is probably a smart move by Hasler as the initial intensity of the game has a chance to settle and the impact Kasiano brings onto the field has the potential to lift the Bulldogs to another level.

Recent History

Overall = Dragons 10 Bulldogs 15

Last 5 games = Dragons 2 Bulldogs 3

At WIN Jubilee Stadium = Dragons 1 Bulldogs 2

Stats that matter

• Despite winning easily last week, the Bulldogs would be unhappy with how they performed in certain areas. For starters, they commited 15 errors and only completed 60.5% of their sets. That type of football will not cut it at the business end of the season and they will wan to eradicate this from their performances.
• Missed tackles are not a problem for either side in this game but their ability to limit their opponents scoring perhaps is. The Bulldogs miss 22.4 per game (2^nd) while the Dragons are just behind them with 24.7 misses (4^th). Yet on the scoreboard, the Bulldogs concede 19.3 points per game (7^th) and the Dragons are allow a little more with an average of 20.7 (11^th).
• Even though these two team are similar with the amount of points they allow to their opponents each week, the Bulldogs are able to average