Get ready! The representative season is over and there is 7 Rounds left in the competition before the Finals. This is the time where we see teams make a charge for the finals or drop out of contention altogether. It makes for great theatre and the true benefactors of this are the fans. As it stands, there are still 15 teams that can make the finals, albeit mathematically for a few. The most exciting viewing may well be the race for the final few spots in the Top 8 as 7 teams are within 2 points of one another. In amongst that, there is still a battle for the minor premiership but that will mean little unless those sides can carry their momentum into the Finals. The top 4 is probably set in stone and you can’t really see too much changing other than the positions that the sides will finish in. Unfortunately, the ASADA investigation has reared its ugly head again and a lot of the focus will be taken away from the on-field performances of teams. Rugby league fans are entitled to feel frustrated and angry at the situation as it appears as though the AFL have been able to handle their side of the incident with relative ease. Then again, perhaps it is an indication of the gulf in class between the people who are working at the top to control the games. Fan’s will not take this much longer and hopefully the quality of rugby league is so good, that the investigation takes a back seat and is allowed to progress at its own pace. Of course, for that to happen several media outlets need to allow for due process to take place and stop feeding rumours that are only putting further doubt into the publics mind. Either way, the NRL will continue to roll forward and there are two exciting games that will take place on Friday night to begin the weekend’s action.

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos

One of the most crucial clashes this weekend will be between the Cowboys and the Broncos on Friday night in Townsville. Both sides are aiming to keep their slim hopes alive for the Finals and the season is sure to be over for the loser of this contest. Each team is currently on 16 points, 6 points out of the Top 8 but it is the Broncos that are slightly ahead on point’s difference (-38 v -45). That is not to suggest that the winner of this contest is going to be a chance for the Finals, they would have to still win 6 of their remaining 7 games to even have that opportunity but that is exactly what a win will offer. To propose that both sides have had a disappointing season would be a gross understatement. They each possess a host of representative talent in crucial positions, however they have been unable to translate that into consistent weekly performances. Perhaps the most disappointing thing for the fans of the two clubs is the inability of the organisations to publicly admit that there is a mountain of pressure on the shoulders of their coaches. Cowboys coach Neil Henry is perhaps a little worse off than his counterpart Anthony Griffin, as he has been at the post of the Cowboys now for a number of years. Within that time, he has only taken them to the Finals on only a few occasions and the closest they have coming to winning the title is the elimination final. For the Broncos, Griffin was always going to have his work cut out for him trying to replace Wayne Bennett but he has done fairly well up until last season. Some would argue that a lot of the success did rest on the shoulders of future immortal Darren Lockyer, and they are now only realising just how hard it is to replace a player like him. Despite this and much like the Cowboys, they have a strong foundation to build off and it is perplexing to see them struggle against sides that they appear capable of beating. Road travel has been a problem of the Cowboys and to a lesser extent the Broncos; and the inability to win away is always going to prove problematic for the sides outside Sydney. Nonetheless, the quality sides within the competition should be able to put it together, regardless of where they play. The stage is set for a very intense and crucial Queensland derby. It is a shame that this game will only be shown live into the home state because it promises to deliver desperate football. A lot is on the line and the fallout from the performances of both sides will surely drag on for a few weeks.

North Queensland Cowboys

Cowboys coach Neil Henry has wielded the axe to some extent this week and there are several changes to the side. Of course, a lot of the changes do revolve around their representative players returning from SOO duty. Following his return in their last outing, Matt Bowen is named to start at fullback, taking the place of Clint Greenshields. Brent Tate returns to the centres and this has forced Antonio Winterstein out to the wing and Ashley Graham out of the side. In the halves, Thurston returns but he will now have a new halfback partner following the dropping of Robert Lui. Michael Morgan has demonstrated some promise and he has his work cut out for him here. This has also forced a reshuffle and Ray Thompson moves back to the bench to fill the utility role. In the forwards, Henry has named a completely different pack this week. Matthew Scott and James Tamou return to their customary roles, with Glenn Hall moving back to the second row and Ricky Thorby back to the bench. Ethan Lowe has been replaced by Gavin Cooper and Dallas Johnson returns to lock the scrum. These changes in the starting side have forced Joel Riethmuller back to the bench and Ashton Sims will also join him. Scott Bolton (18^th) and Jason Taumalolo (19^th) have been named but they will be the likely omissions if all players prove their fitness.

Brisbane Broncos

Just like the Cowboys, the Broncos welcome back their SOO players and they slot straight back into their starting lineup. Justin Hodges returns to the centres this week and he has a new partner in Alex Glenn, who moves from the second row. Josh Hoffman has been moved to fullback and the Parramatta-bound Corey Norman, is dropped out of the side. His move has forced Corey Oates to the wing and the youngster will have another opportunity to prove himself. In the halves, Ben Hunt is named at halfback and Peter Wallace is moved to the bench. What this holds in store for the Broncos remains to be seen but with the season on the line, they need to try something to keep their hopes alive. In the forwards, Sam Thaiday and Matt Gillett are named to in the second row and Corey Parker will lock the scrum. The return of these players have forced David Stagg and Mitchell Dodds back to the bench, while Dunamis Lui is name as 18^th man.

Recent History

Overall = Cowboys 8 Draw 2 Broncos 25

Last 5 games = Cowboys 3 Broncos 2

At Suncorp Stadium = Cowboys 4 Draw 1 Broncos 14

Stats that matter

• Each team possesses a whole host of talent within their forward packs but they have been unable to assert their force over their opponents in terms of metres per carry. For the Cowboys, they are ranked in 13^th spot and make around 8.66m per game and are just narrowly ahead of the Broncos, who are in 14^th spot with 8.59m each carry.
• The Broncos are meticulous with the ball in their possession and average 77.9% in terms of their completion rate (1^st) and commit just 8.8 errors (1^st). It just shows, they attacking ability of the Broncos is severely hampered and they cannot put the finishing touches to the end of their sets.
• This is heading for a very close contest considering the points that each side averages in attack and defence. In attack, the Broncos average 17.9 points (11^th) while the Cowboys are slightly behind them in 12^th spot with 17.5 per game. On the other side of the ball, both side concede an average of 20.1 points (9^th) and this just proves how close these two side are.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.55 Broncos $2.50
Centrebet = Cowboys $1.52 Broncos $2.60
Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.52 Broncos $2.60
Betfair = Cowboys $1.50 Broncos $2.80

Verdict

My initial thought when comparing these two sides is that it is a very difficult contest to pick and it is going to be a close one at that. You can see above that the two sides are very close in terms of the points that average in attack and defence. Despite playing at home, the Cowboys should still find it difficult to prevail in this game but the Broncos have offered little throughout the course of this year to suggest otherwise. The best thing to do in this game is bet around a very close contest. I have only listed one bet below because of this and cannot see any value elsewhere in this contest. For what it is worth, I am backing the Broncos to get a victory but a Cowboys win would certainly not shock me at all.

Suggested Bet

Either side under 6.5 points @ $2.90 (tri bet)

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v Parramatta Eels

The other game this Friday night that will be shown live into NSW is the clash between the Bulldogs and the Eels out at ANZ Stadium. There is a lot less on the line in this match compared to the other Friday night contest but the game will still have a lot of passion involved as two traditional rivals face off against one another. Over at Belmore, the Bulldogs are slowly getting back to the form that we saw from them in 2012. Their most recent performance against the Storm (39-0) was dominating to say the least but you have to remember that the Storm were also missing their representative players. Regardless of that, the Bulldogs will take a lot away from it and other sides have found it difficult to breakdown the defensive structure of the Storm without a few of their stars. Attacking football is what works best for the Bulldogs and this is all created from their forward play. It was only the game before against Newcastle where they were embarrassed and we were reminded just how vulnerable they can be. As for the Eels, you have don’t have to think too long to make a judgment on their current predicament. Their coach, Ricky Stuart, is still pleading for patience but in reality, not too much has changed or improved on form last year. They are still running last in the competition and at the moment, they are only trying to salvage something by not winning the wooden spoon. It is disappointing so say the least and their fans are not going to tolerate this for too much longer. It would be a far different opinion if they were competitive in their matches, however even that has evaded them this season. It will be interesting to see just how Stuart can motivate his side for the remainder of the season. It is a big game for them to get past but the Bulldogs will be determined to build further towards the Finals with another strong performance against a weaker opponent.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Having a week out of the spotlight would’ve helped Bulldogs regroup and refocus for their run towards the Finals. They are boosted this week with the return of Josh Morris to the centres and he will be egger to build on his relatively strong effort for NSW. This has not been his best season, struggling to get to the try line consistently but he has a chance to now change that. His return has forced Tim Lafai back to NSW Cup and his talent again goes to waste in the lower grade. Despite being named last week, Frank Pritchard didn’t take the field. He is named here and is expected to play and this has just left Tim Browne (18^th) as the only player named on an extended bench. The only other change is James Graham being named to start in place of Sam Kasiano, who will now offer impact into this game from the bench.

Parramatta Eels

With not much going right for the Eels this season, it is surprising to see Ricky Stuart persist with a similar squad each week. There are only minimal changes this week and it is no surprise that Chris Sandow still remains out of this team. Ken Sio is back to the wing this week and his return has forced youngster Brayden Wiliame out of the side. The youngster did show potential in his chances but he does have a lot to learn before stamping his authority at this level. Mitchell Allgood has served his suspension for his “fight” with Steve Matai and he will take his spot on the bench. His return has forced Kaysa Pritchard out of the team and he is another Parramatta youngster that will have to wait a little longer following his limited exposure in the top grade.

Recent History

Overall = Bulldogs 71 Draw 5 Eels 57

Last 5 games = Bulldogs 5 Eels 0

At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 11 Eels 8

 

Stats that matter

• The Bulldogs have tightened up their completion rate at this point in the season and they’re now ranked in 6^th spot with 72.8%. Teams are extremely close but given their standing on the table, it is no surprise to see the Eels ranked in 15^th with 70.5%.
• Creativity and points scoring has continued to be a problem for the Eels. They are not troubling their opponents enough and as a result, they’re only averaging an abysmal 2.9 line breaks per game (16^th). This has lead to them just 13.8 points per game (16^th).
• It is no secret that the Eels are struggling to also halt their opponents scoring but a key to that may just lie within their missed tackles. They average 30.1 misses a game (16^th) and this has also leaked them an average of 28 points per game (16^th). For what it is worth, the Bulldogs average just 22.5 misses a game (2^nd) and conceded 19.7 points each match (8^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Bulldogs $1.10 Eels $7.50
Centrebet = Bulldogs $1.08 Eels $8.50
Sportsbet = Bulldogs $1.08 Eels $8.50
Betfair = Bulldogs $1.09 Eels $11

Verdict

After declaring the Rabbitohs as certain winners last week, I am a little reluctant to make a similar statement regarding this game. Then again, that was probably the upset of the season and to see the Eels cause one here would undoubtedly surpass that effort. The Bulldogs are the superior team in every area of the game and the Eels will have a tough time trying to match them. They do not score enough points and concede far too many to even push them here. You have to be careful though, there isn’t a lot of value in and around this game and you cannot get caught up taking massive margins in this match. Sure, this game is a matter of “how much” the Bulldogs will win by but the Eels may just shock a few people and remain in this game a little longer than the Bulldogs will like.

Suggested Bet

Bulldogs 19+ @ $1.65

Barba shop of tries = Ben Barba FTS and/or LTS @ $6 – Since Round 11, Barba has scored the first or last try 4 of the last 7 games. With a strike rate like that, there is a good chance that he will be in a position to cross again here. More exciting is the fact that he has the ability to pop up anywhere on the field and surprise the opposition.

St George-Illawarra Dragons v Canberra Raiders

The first of the Saturday night games is a great rivalry between the Dragons and the Raiders that has developed over the past decade. For most of that time, it has been the Raiders that have “had the wood” over the Dragons and the fans of both sides immediately check when the two sides are destined to face off during the competition. To suggest that this game is going to sway in the Raiders favor would be a silly statement to make as the Dragons appeared to have found a winning formula following their surprising victory over the competition-leading Rabbitohs last week in MNF. They are not going to get too far ahead of themselves though and still need to put things into perspective. The Rabbitohs were a fair way from their best and the Dragons were given every opportunity in their fight back. Full credit must go to them though, they showed determination and a little flair to get them through to “golden point”. Momentum can be everything in this game and when facing a “bogey-team” like the Raiders, the Dragons are going to need all the help they can get. For the Raiders, moving away from home is going to prove problematic to say the least; however much of the talk in the lead in to this game will focus around on the possible return of Blake Ferguson to their team. Not only that, the Raiders players and coaches have been questioned at length in regards to facing former teammate Josh Dugan. His departure from the club has been well documented and Raiders fans are not going to forget what he did to the club that easily. At the end of the day, they were the one’s that took the stand against him and full credit must go to them for the decisions that they have made. They are aware of what he is capable of and they will want to shut him down in the opening stages of this game. If not, his return could be a painful reminder to his former club of what they’re missing out on. Either way, the stage is set for a very interesting an intriguing contest that has plenty of story lines running through it. Tune in for an exciting game that is sure to have fans of both teams sitting on the edge of their seats.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

The Dragons would’ve had little time to analyse the fitness of their squad and not much changes with this team. The biggest issue for this week will be the omission of Matt Cooper from the centres and Daniel Vidot will have a tough time filling his void. Their game on Monday was the first time that Cooper had played since their ANZAC Day loss to the Roosters. He has a torn pectoral muscle and it appears that his career could be done. It would be sad to see him go out of the game this way but the time may just be right with his recent run of injuries. The only other change occurs on the bench, with Jack Stockwell added to the side in jersey 17 while Cameron King has not been named. This has also opened up the opportunity for Matt Prior to gain a start, but he was present in MNF. This is probably the best chance that the Raiders have had of beating the Raiders in recent years and the relatively new players in the team will not worry about the hoodoo that follows this side around.

Canberra Raiders

This is the time when the Raider will want to gain some momentum and the consistency is vital to their success. There is just the one change this week and that includes the return of Josh Papalii to the starting side in a swap with Jarrad Kennedy, who returns to the bench. It is not a major move but Papalii is the dynamic boost that the Raiders team will welcome. Playing on the road is always going to be a battle for the Raiders but some of the responsibility will also fall with their coach, Dave Furner. Then again, he is not running out onto the field and the once the preparation is finished; he is unable to effect the result. Perhaps their current standing on the table will motivate the players this week because if it doesn’t, they may find themselves on an early holiday. There is some news around that Blake Ferguson may be a late inclusion into the side as he has been cleared by the NRL to play, but we will have to wait until an hour before KO until this is confirmed.

Recent History

Overall = Dragons 6 Draw 1 Raiders 15

Last 5 games = Dragons 0 Raiders 5

At WIN Stadium = Dragons 2 Draw 1 Raiders 2

Stats that matter

• Mistakes are still a major problem for both sides and it is one area that they will need to turn around to improve their play. For the season, they average 11.9 errors per match and are ranked in =14^th spot. Despite their win last week, the Dragons still committed 16 errors (the same as last their previous game).
• We saw shades of what the Dragons are capable of last week when they throw the ball around and it is something that they may want to do a little more of considering they average just 3.2 line breaks per game (15^th). The Raiders are not much better though, they are ranked in 12^th spot with an average of 3.6 per game.
• The Raiders have attacking ability all over the field and they are well ahead of the Dragons when it comes to scoring points. So far, they score an average of 18.5 points (10^th) and while it isn’t flattering, it is far superior than the Dragons 14.1 (15^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Dragons $2.15 Raiders $1.72
Centrebet = Dragons $2.15 Raiders $1.73
Sportsbet = Dragons $2.08 Raiders $1.77
Betfair = Dragons $2.20 Raiders $1.74

Verdict

Before you can even consider making a selection, remember that the Dragons have only won 1 of the last 10 played between these two sides. However, that game was played at WIN Stadium, the same venue that this game will take place. That was back in 2007 and they have only played here twice since then. What may confuse selections a little more is the fact that the last 4 games played between these sides have all taken place down in Canberra. That ground is a tough place to win at in any circumstance but the Dragons will be buoyed by their win last week and they have little time to think about anything else with a quick turn around. To be honest, I think there is only one option and like the “Cowboys v Broncos” game, let’s frame our bets around a very close contest. For what it is worth, I think that the Raiders will be able to get a win but it will be very tough for them to do so.

Suggested Bet

Either team under 6.5 points (tri bet) @ $2.75

Gold Coast Titans v South Sydney Rabbitohs

The second game this Saturday night heads up to the Gold Coast this week as the Titans host a Rabbitohs team that is aiming to bounce back from a shock-defeat at the hand of the Dragons. Things didn’t go according to plan in that game and circumstances are going to be made even more difficult with the quick turn around from a MNF game to a travelling Saturday night fixture. Perhaps there are a few positives within that as well because they have little time to focus on that effort and will have to focus their attention towards this contest. Since then, the competition leaders have been surpassed in the odds by the Roosters and are now in the second line of betting for the title. No one doubts their credentials, yet people are quick to mention that they may in fact be a “one-man-team” and they will find it difficult to win without Inglis. That is not the path to go down just yet, it was one loss and it could be a loss that they needed following a week off with the bye. As for the Titans, they are quickly losing control of their season and look lost for answers. They will be boosted this week by the return of their two representative players (Nate Myles and Greg Bird), but they still have a troubling injury toll to contend with. Luckily for them, they have been able to maintain the core group of players that make up the key positions within their side. They just need to learn how to play with a little more confidence in their ability and develop consistency within their efforts. When that happens, we see some very exciting football from the Titans and their chances are only enhanced by the play of their forwards. Nonetheless, if they cannot get things right, they will find themselves missing out on the Finals altogether. They currently sit in 10^th spot on 20 points and are 2-points out of the Top 8. If that isn’t enough motivation, surely being the 4^th team to beat the Rabbitohs this season will offer that to them. Let’s see if they are up to it or the loss for the Rabbitohs was just a minor blip on the radar and they’re able to get their season back on track and moving in the right direction.

Gold Coast Titans

It is a welcome return this week for the Titans SOO players and Nate Myles and Greg Bird will slot straight back into the starting side. It wasn’t as if John Cartwright really wanted to leave his two star players out, however it could prove a smart move as it is likely to freshen them up and hopefully allow them to stay on the field in coming weeks. Myles will start at prop this week, in a move that has forced Luke Douglas back to the bench. Greg Bird will start in the second row and partner Mark Minichiello, while Dave Taylor will start from the bench. He was named last week but was a late withdrawal and will force himself to return early form injury (despite reports, he has not recovered) in order to assist the Titans in their run home. The reshuffle on the bench has forced Ryan James to 18^th man and Luke O’Dwyer to 19^th man, with both players likely to miss out on selection if all players are fit.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Following their shock MNF loss to the Dragons, the Rabbitohs would’ve had little opportunity to review the fitness of their squad. As a result, they have chosen to run with the same side that took the field in that performance. There is some news floating around that Matt King may make a return from injury on the wing and Nathan Merritt will be shifted to fullback (Justin Hunt to be dropped). It probably wasn’t the ideal preparation for their run to the Finals, but it would’ve put a few things into perspective for them. Furthermore, it would’ve grounded them and given them added motivation in the coming weeks. A few people will suggest that it could be a while before they’re back on track though, and a lot of this has to do with the omission of Greg Inglis through injury. He will probably be sidelined for the next 3-4 weeks and in that time, they will have to build a basis to work from that doesn’t rely on him. They will have to rely heavily on their forwards but it is also the chance for Adam Reynolds to prove his worth and quality under pressure.

Recent History

Overall = Titans 4 Rabbitohs 5

Last 5 games = Titans 2 Rabbitohs 3

At Skilled Park = Titans 1 Rabbitohs 1

Stats that matter

• Just how bad were the Rabbitohs last week when they suffered their 3^rd loss for the season? They completed only 57.1% of their sets, made 17 total errors and missed 27 tackles in defence.
• This game should be a great battle between the two forward packs. For the season, the Rabbitohs monsters make an average of 9.09m per carry of the ball (3^rd), but they are only slightly ahead of the Titans, who make 9.05m per carry (4^th).
• Scoring points has not been an issue for the Titans this season but holding their opponents to a low total is another story. They allow an average of 22.1 points (13^th) and you can understand why they have slipped outside the Top 8 in recent weeks as they are now only scoring 20.6 point of their own (7^th). For what it is worth, the Rabbitohs score an average of 26 points per match (1^st) and allow just 14.8 (3^rd).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Titans $3.25 Rabbitohs $1.35
Centrebet = Titans $3.05 Rabbitohs $1.40
Sportsbet = Titans $3.15 Rabbitohs $1.37
Betfair = Titans $3.15 Rabbitohs $1.35

Verdict

The odds suggest that this game is already a forgone conclusion and with their backs against the wall, it does appear a bridge too far for the Titans. The Rabbitohs will be egger to bounce back into winning form and they again have the chance to prove that they are not a “one-man team”. In saying that, the Titans will be boosted by the return of Myles and Bird to their lineup. They are two of the top forwards in the game and know how to lead the rest of the team forward through actions. It was evident when Bird was on the field during SOO that the Blues intensity lifted and they became a better side. Two players taking on the Rabbitohs pack does seem tough to handle though, so they will need to find support from other players on the field. I still like the Rabbitohs to get a victory but if their last meeting is anything to go by, it will be a close contest. Their halves are a class above the Titans pair and they also have a very crafty hooker in Issac Luke to call upon and control the ruck.

Suggested Bet

Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $3

Grab a little more = Rabbitohs 7-12 @ $5.50 – If you’re looking for a little more value in your bet, then consider this option. The line has been set at 8.5 and the bookies are never far away with their prediction. The game should fall within 1-12 and it should fall the way of the Rabbitohs.

Right side, strong side = Andrew Everingham FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – In 3 of the last 4 games, the Rabbitohs have opened their scoring account on the right hand side of the field. For that reason alone, I fancy Everingham a great chance of crossing the line either first or last in this contest.

New Zealand Warriors v Melbourne Storm

Super Sunday is set for an early start this weekend as the Warriors welcome the opportunity to host the Storm at Mt Smart Stadium. The game will KO at 12pm EST, so make sure that you are set and not caught out by the early starting time. These two sides usually meet one another on ANZAC Day but have the pleasure of facing one another twice this season. Back on April 25^th, it was the Storm who were victorious on their home turf 28-18, but it was not without a very large scare. Up until the 72^nd minute, the Warriors lead 18-16 and appeared to be holding the Storm enough to grab an unlikely victory. However the Storm grabbed two late tries and prevailed to hand the Warriors another loss to start their season. It again raised further questions about the true potential of the Warriors but they will enter this game amidst a different set of circumstances. Sure, they are still sitting outside the Top 8 but they are arguably one of the form sides of the competition. It appears as though they have finally discovered a balance between flair and discipline that is proving difficult for opposition teams to contain. It has been a different set of circumstances for the Storm and in recent seasons, we have seen them struggle in the post-SOO period. This is the first chance that they will have to prove the doubters wrong, nonetheless their star players are bound to feel fatigued and struggle with motivating themselves for a few weeks. It will be interesting to see just how they perform and perhaps a week off last week would’ve given the club a chance to regroup and refocus towards their run home. Fighting for the Top 8 is not a worry for them but they will want to put them in the best position possible within the Top 4 to capture a home semifinal in the Grand Final Qualifier. This game is going to be a great start to the day’s action and an exciting contest is sure to keep fans glued to the game right up until the final whistle.

New Zealand Warriors

The Warriors are a team on the rise but they still have a lot of work to do before they are firmly back into contention. The biggest boost to their chances of winning this game will be the return home and the extended break between their last match against the Tigers. Unfortunately for them, they will be without Glen Fisiiahi for the remainder of the season who is out with an injury. He has been a great player on the edge and even had the versatility to slot into fullback when Kevin Locke was injured. They have chosen to go with Ngani Laumape as his replacement and a player that is made in the mold of Konrad Hurrell, is always going to be difficult to stop. On the bench, Suaia Matagi replaces Charlie Gubb, just as he did last week and in a sign of the fitness of the squad, there are no extra players named as possible covers.

Melbourne Storm

The most notable changes for the Storm this week are the return of their SOO players to their lineup. Billy Slater is back at fullback and Justin O’Neill will move back to the wing, at the expense of Mahe Fonua. Cooper Cronk is back at halfback and this has forced Ben Hampton back to 18^th man. Cameron Smith will play hooker and Ryan Hinchcliffe will go back to lock, with Slade Griffin back to the bench. This move has also forced Tim Glasby back to 19^th man and he will miss selection if the entire squad is fit and ready to go. Ryan Hoffman is the final player to return to the side and this see’s Tohu Harris back to the bench. Harris is a quality player and will again offer impact when he takes the field. When it gets to the business of the season, the players that are returning to this team are the exact players that you want on your team at steering your side towards success.

Recent History

Overall = Warriors 13 Draw 2 Storm 17

Last 5 games = Warriors 1 Storm 4

At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 7 Storm 8

Stats that matter

• The Warriors are still improving and are pushing strongly towards the Finals but they must become more disciplined with the ball in their possession. They average 70.5% completions each game and commit too many errors with 11.2 per game (10^th). The Storm have always been a model for consistency and they average 74.3% completions per game and commit 10.7 errors (=5^th).
• The Storm are proving difficult to break down in defence and despite their recent loss to the Bulldogs, they still average 24.2 missed tackles per game and concede just 15.7 points in defence (4^th). The story is a little different for the Warriors, they miss an average of 28.2 tackles per game (11^th) and leak 23.6 points on the scoreboard (14^th).
• Defence could be the difference in this game as both sides are close when it comes to points scored. The Warriors have improved in recent weeks (25.7 points in their last 7 games) to average 19.5 per game (9^th) for the season. As expected, the Storm are slightly ahead of them and average 20.9 points per game (6^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Warriors $2.20 Storm $1.70
Centrebet = Warriors $2.00 Storm $1.83
Sportsbet = Warriors $2.15 Storm $1.72
Betfair = Warriors $2.24 Storm $1.78

Verdict

This game is a very tricky contest to pick. On one hand, the Storm are a quality team but then again, the Warriors are a team on the way up and appear to have a lot more to play for. There is also a lot of uncertainty around how the Storm will perform in the post-SOO period. It appears as though they should be competitive, but how competitive that is, remains to be seen. If the Warriors get their act together, it could be difficult for the Storm to handle. Playing at home has always been a strength for them in any season but now there is a lot more on the line. They are pushing hard for a place in the finals and need to make everything go their way to keep their hopes alive. Like many other games this weekend, I am banking on this game being a very close contest and I am going to go with the upset in favor of the home side.

Suggested Bet

Either team under 6.5 points (tri bet) @ $2.75

Warriors 1-12 @ $3.50 – A close game is predicted and given I am tipping a Warriors upset, this bet seems like a simple choice. The Warriors will have to work hard for this outcome and given the quality that the Storm possesses, they’re not going to hand this game over easily.

The beast is back = Manu Vatuvei FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – You all know that “the beast” is a personal favorite of mine and it is hard to shy away from him when he has been either the FTS and/or LTS in 7 out of the last 10 matches. The odds for him have drifted a little too but the Warriors like to work the ball to his side of the field and get him one on one with his opponent.

Good luck!
Scooby