State of Origin has been and gone for another year now and it is Queensland that continued on their domination of the Blues, a tally that has now reached 8 series in a row. As expected, the 240 minutes of rugby league that consumed the series will be spoken about longer than anyone can imagine and the anticipation is already building for the 2014 series. In amongst all of this, the NRL has continued to move forward and it is now surprisingly close to the end of the season. Many teams are beginning to realise that the hopes they once harboured of grabbing a finals berth are now only slightly alive and their season can only now finish off on the right foot with a few wins. The time is getting closer for those teams to look towards the future and begin to build their team and organisation from the ground, up. It is important for those clubs that they now try to finish the season off in winning form because that can be the catalyst for a positive off-season and change the attitude of the playing group. Fans will not worry too much about those sides though, the real focus now shifts towards the teams that are in contention for a finals spot and more importantly, are a chance of winning the premiership. There appears to be only a few sides that are capable of putting themselves in that position and it will be an exciting run home for the teams and fans of those clubs. Unfortunately, we will have to wait another week before the NRL returns to full fixtures as the remaining teams yet to have their second bye, are doing so this week.

Wests Tigers v New Zealand Warriors

Friday night action kicks off out at Leichhardt Oval as the West Tigers attempt to salvage something from their season and put a stop to the momentum of the Warriors. The Tigers have had a disappointing season to say the least and in amongst their recent “winning” form, the questions around the future of Benji Marshall in the game have overshadowed their performances. That is to be expected though; Marshall is one of the biggest names in the game and even when he isn’t in form, people are still be talking about his on-field performance. It all came to a head this week as Marshall finally confirmed what everyone thought was coming and handed a release request into the Tigers. It is sad that such an exciting partnership has to end this way but some credit has to be given to the Tigers for not standing in his way. It appears as though Marshall will end up in rugby but it remains to be to seen what team (or country) that will be. The time is probably right for him to move on and if his recent form is anything to go by, the Tigers could use the money that he will free up to develop a few of their promising youngsters coming through their system. There are no such problems being experienced over at the Warriors though. Despite a last start loss to the Rabbitohs, it was a game that they will take a lot of confidence away from. Heading into that game, they were on a 5-game winning streak and it was a good measure of their recent performances. The margin was perhaps a little unfair in the end but they did push the best side in the competition for 60minutes and made them earn the victory. Travelling and performing on the road is still an issue and any time the Warriors move outside their surroundings, their performances are questioned. It will be interesting to see if the week off served them well and they are ready to make a strong push towards the finals. This team has enormous potential and the opportunities are endless if they realise how to fulfill it. Although they are expected to win this game, the Tigers always lift to another level at this ground and the stage is set for a great start to the weekend.

Wests Tigers

The Tigers would’ve been unhappy with their first half performance last game but will take some confidence away from their comeback after halftime. A lot of the headlines this week have revolved around Marshall and it will be interesting to see just how the side performs. There is just the one change this week to their side and that is the inclusion of Braith Anasta in jersey 17. Anasta was a late inclusion last time out and this has forced Shaun Spence back to 18^th man. Of course, the Tigers have chosen to name their NSW players and both Robbie Farrah and Aaron Woods are expected to take the field here following their efforts on Wednesday night. Despite Farrah’s last-ditch attempt at winning the match, he was one of the Blues best throughout. The same cannot be said for Woods though; he had limited time on the field and was unable to make his mark on the match. Expect Woods to come firing to make amends for that outing.

New Zealand Warriors

The Warriors have chosen to maintain relatively the same team that played in Round 17 against the Rabbitohs, however it is exciting to see Manu Vatuvei named to make a return from injury. Warriors coach Matthew Elliot has left his options open though incase Vatuvei is a late withdrawal and Ngani Laumape has been named as 18^th man. He will also be joined by Russell Packer (19^th) and Suaia Matagi (20^th), as Charlie Gubb has been promoted to the 17 and will wear jersey 14. The Warriors will take a lot away from their game against the Rabbitohs and they will not be short on confidence. They have a real chance to make a run to the finals and having had a bye last week, they will want to come out in this game on the mark.

Recent History

Overall = Tigers 11 Warriors 10

Last 5 games = Tigers 1 Warriors 4

At Leichhardt Oval = Tigers 3 Warriors 1

Stats that matter

• This is pointing towards a low quality contest in terms of completion rate and no doubt the team, which can hold onto the ball the longest, will win the match. For the season, the Warriors are the worst ranked team in terms of this stat with 69.8% and the Tigers are just ahead of them with 70%.
• The Warriors have relied heavily upon their forwards to set them a platform in the early stages of their games. When they have won this year, they have averaged 8.83m per carry of the ball (for the season 8.73m – 12^th). The Tigers will find it tough to compete with them too, currently they are ranked in 15^th spot and average just 8.54m per carry for the season.
• The Warriors have no trouble scoring points (average 19.2 – 9^th) it is just holding their opponents that is their downfall (24.3 – 14^th). When they have won this season, they have averaged 26.9 in attack and conceded just 16.6.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Tigers $2.40 Warriors $1.60
Centrebet = Tigers $2.40 Warriors $1.60
Sportsbet = Tigers $2.30 Warriors $1.65
Betfair = Tigers $2.46 Warriors $1.50

Verdict

The Tigers always lift to another level when playing at Leichhardt Oval and I shouldn’t have to remind you that the last time they ran out here, they were able to topple the Melbourne Storm. The conditions in that game played into their favor and the Storm players were caught off guard with their attitude. The same could very well happen here but the controversy surrounding Marshall’s exit will affect the Tigers to some degree. The Warriors have also had a week off and none of their players have to back up from representative games. They are a team that is on the way up in this competition and the fact that they were competitive on the road against the Rabbitohs in their last outing suggests that they’ve turned a corner. It will not be easy for them though, the Tigers are a side that will have nothing to lose but eventually, this Warriors team should prevail. They will also want to finish the season on a high and send Benji Marshall out on a high note. Nonetheless, the Warriors have a bigger and stronger pack of forwards, possess flair in attack and have a reasonable recent record in defence. The return to Leichhardt and Warriors road troubles suggests that this game will be close and it may very well be, but the Warriors should get out to a comfortable margin in this game.

Suggested Bet
Warriors -3.5 @ $1.80

Not a marginal affair = Warriors 13+ @ $3.25 – The Warriors have proven recently that they have turned a corner and I expect that to continue along here. This bet becomes even more interesting when you consider that when they’ve won this season, they have averaged 26.9 points.

Beastly effort = Manu Vatuvei FTS and/or LTS @ $6 – “The Beast” has been a personal favorite of mine (and all punters) this season due to his ability to find the try line consistently. Expect him to give the rookie Tigers wingers a tough task of trying to handle him in this game. If he is out through injury, go for Konrad Hurrell ($9).

Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels

Saturday night action will welcome back two games this week and the first of them will kick off down in Canberra as the Raiders will hope that they can keep the miserable season for the Eels going. It hasn’t exactly been a bright season for the Raiders either though and they’ve found themselves in some trouble at certain times. However their form at home has been able to rescue them and all their troubles seem to disappear when they play there. It is never a situation that you would want to get into as a head coach and David Furner is no doubt frustrated at games they have let slip this season. If they had of made the most of their opportunities, there is no doubt that they would be higher on the table than 9^th where they current reside on 20 points. It should be noted that they are in fact equal 6^th but are have the worst for and against of those sides on 20 points (-58). They are one team that will just have to focus on the coming week and hopefully they can gain some consistency in their performances. That is something that Eels coach Ricky Stuart would love to have in his side and the level of frustration that he is experiencing is sure to be higher than his opposing coach. The Eels currently reside in 16^th spot on the competition ladder and are 4 points away from the Dragons who are in 15^th spot. It was a similar season last year that led to the sacking of then coach, Stephen Kearney and the installing of Stuart to the position. Since then, he has begged for patience but there is only so much that the fans will take. Things seemed to get a little worse this week as their CEO, Ken Edwards stood down from his position. All is not well at this club but there is one thing that can make the problems seem a world away, winning. They will have their work cut out for them here though and it is never an easy road trip to make. It will be even more difficult considering it is in the middle of winter and the temperature will be close to freezing. Winning does seem far off for the Eels but rugby league can spring a surprise or two and it will be interesting to see if the Raiders can display some of their exciting spark that we have seen from them.

Canberra Raiders

The Raiders have named an unchanged lineup from the side that was successful against the Cowboys in Round 17. There was one late change in that match and that has been carried over here. Reece Robinson was moved to the wing in place of Jack Wighton and Anthony Milford was promoted from the bench to play fullback. He was dynamic and dangerous with the ball; living up to the hype around him with each touch of the ball. Milford’s promotion opened up the opportunity for Furner to bring in Shaun Berrigan into the side to fill the utility role. He is in the twilight of his career however the impact and experience he offers when he takes the field should assist the Raiders in their movement around the field. Jake Foster has been named as 18^th man, but it is likely that he will miss out on the team’s final selection.

Parramatta Eels

Eels coach Ricky Stuart has chosen to name the same side here that was beaten last week by the Panthers. In the lead up to that game, their winger Ken Sio was a late withdrawal and youngster Semi Radradra was called into the team. It was a promising debut from the youngster and Stuart would be hoping that he is able to carry on with it. There were a few positives to take away from that performance and the move of Darcy Lussick to lock certainly increased his workload during the game. The increased responsibility also ensured that his “play” was focused and he wasn’t giving away as many penalties around the ruck. In a show of faith, Stuart has retained his halves and Chris Sandow will have to wait another week to get his spot back. He didn’t play NSW Cup due to injury and not playing cannot enhance his chances of a recall.

Recent History

Overall = Raiders 23 Eels 24

Last 5 games = Raiders 3 Eels 2

At Canberra Stadium = Raiders 12 Eels 4

Stats that matter

• The Raiders have been extremely inconsistent this season and their ill discipline with the ball has lead to them averaging 11.7 errors per match (14^th). For what it is worth, the Eels are slightly better than this and commit 10.9 errors per game (8^th).
• The Eels are rarely troubling their opponents in attack and are ranked =15^th in the league for line breaks with an average of 3.1. The Raiders are not far ahead of them in terms of an average (3.6 per game) but are ranked in =11^th position.
• You do not have to look far to see how poorly the Eels are performing this season. In attack they average 14.6 points (15^th) and in defence the story is face worse, they allow their opponents 28.9 points each week (16^th). The Raiders are performing a little better with an average of 18.8 points in attack (10^th) and 22.4 in defence (13^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Raiders $1.09 Eels $8.00
Centrebet = Raiders $1.11 Eels $7.00
Sportsbet = Raiders $1.10 Eels $7.50
Betfair = Raiders $1.08 Eels $8.06

Verdict

There isn’t too much that has to be said about this game. The Raiders should win this game and it they should do it easily enough. The Eels have displayed little this season to suggest that anything else will happen. Perhaps if the game was played at their home ground, they would be a chance but the road trip down to the nations capital will make the task even more difficult. This game is not a matter of whom, but rather a decision of how much the Raiders can win by. It will be surprising to see them not get out to 13+ and when the flood gate open, it could be anything.

Suggested Bet
Raiders -17.5 @ $1.90

Cue the flood gates = Raiders 19+ @ $2 – As mentioned above, the Raiders could get this score line out to any margin and currently, the best option in terms of value appears to be this selection. The line is probably the safe choice as it is under “3-converted tries” but there is no clear indication of how the Eels defence will hold up.

Greasy Reecey = Reece Robinson FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – Robinson has moved back to the wing and despite having restrictions on where he can move on the field, he is back to a position where he has shown a great try scoring ability. The Raiders also like attacking to the edges early and expect them to bring him into play as much as possible against less experienced players.

Sydney Roosters v Cronulla Sharks

The second game this Saturday night promises to be a very close contest between two sides that have a lot in common. Despite sitting 6-points apart on the competition ladder, the reasons for getting them to that position are slightly similar. The Roosters will look to continue on from where they left things heading into the bye-week against a Sharks side that is beginning to find some form. Before they had the bye, the Roosters were on a 3-game winning streak and managed to turn out impressive displays against the Bulldogs and Sea Eagles. A lot of their success does revolve around the performance of their forwards and that has certainly not gone unnoticed by those watching their games each week. SBW has been in sublime form this season and along with him, the rest of the Roosters pack has stepped up to the mark and dominated their opponent’s. It is very difficult to get the upper hand of over them in games and their forwards have created a solid platform for their halves an outside backs to excel from. They may find it a little difficult this week though as they are facing a pack of forwards that is never afraid to back down from a challenge. The task of overcoming the Roosters has become a little more difficult now though as they are without a few of their stars. If Origin is anything to go by though, Andrew Fifita should have no trouble stepping up to the mark. The problem for them will be finding a few players to go along with him and they will have to create enough room for Todd Carney to work off. It is ironic that the NSW halves will come up against him following another unsuccessful series, where some will argue that Carney should’ve been out on the field throughout the SOO period. Last week, Carney put in a terrific effort that single-handedly won the game for the Sharks against the Broncos. He is showing maturity beyond his years although the Roosters pairing will have a point to prove and the pressure on their shoulders is not going to go away any time soon following the respective series. Unfortunately, this game will not be shown on free-to-air TV but if possible, get to somewhere that you can view it because it is promising to be a very exciting contest.

Sydney Roosters

The Roosters have named a relatively unchanged lineup this week although the side that was named in their last game against the Sea Eagles was dramatically different to the one that took the field. In this game, winger Roger Tuivasa-Sheck returns to the side following his recovery from a sickening concussion. This has forced Shaun Kenny-Dowall back to the centres and Mitchell Aubusson back to the bench. Aubusson was previously named to start in the second row but a strong performance from Frank-Paul Nuuausala has seen him named at lock and Boyd Cordner in the second row. Along with Cordner, the Roosters have chosen to name all of their SOO players and no doubt a few of them will want to make up for their sub-par performance when it mattered most. On the bench, Coach Trent Robinson has chosen to name Isaac Liu as 18^th man but this is only to cover for one of the SOO players not being able to take the field.

Cronulla Sharks

The biggest issue here for the Sharks backing up from their win against the Broncos last Friday night will be the absence of their halfback, Jeff Robson. He is not the most creative halfback in the world and he does his job with minimal fanfare. However what he does offer this Sharks side is stability and direction; all of which releases the pressure on Todd Carney. Chad Townsend has been named in his place and while he is a capable player, he will have his work cut out for him. The Sharks were also unlucky to lose Wade Graham to injury and Luke Lewis has been named to take his place, although he is in doubt following a calf injury in SOO. It isn’t clear who will replace him but perhaps Flanagan will give a chance to youngster Tyrone Peachey to step into the starting side. Andrew Fifita also returns from representative duties and he is named to start in the front row, while Sam Tagataese moves back to the bench and Mark Taufua shifts to 19^th man. Ben Pomeroy is named as 18^th man, but even the most diehard Sharks fan will tell you that they hope he will not be named in the starting side.

Recent History

Overall = Roosters 54 Draw 2 Sharks 27

Last 5 games = Roosters 1 Draw 1 Sharks 3

At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 12 Sharks 7

Stats that matter

• Despite both sides firmly entrenched in the Top 8 at the moment, they still have a lot of improvement left this season. This relates to average errors per match and it is surprising to see the Roosters commit 10.8 (6^th) and the Sharks 11.8 (15^th).
• Expect a great battle in the forward pack. The Sharks are ranked 1^st in the league for metres per carry with 9.16m, but the Roosters are just slightly behind them with 9.07m made (2^nd).
• The Roosters are performing very strongly in defence and miss an average of just 21.1 tackles per match (1^st). The Sharks haven’t exactly performed terribly though, they miss an average of 26.2 per game and are ranked in =6^th position.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Roosters $1.18 Sharks $5.00
Centrebet = Roosters $1.20 Sharks $4.80
Sportsbet = Roosters $1.20 Sharks $4.80
Betfair = Roosters $1.23 Sharks $4.60

Verdict

I understand that in the introduction I suggested that this game will be an exciting contest and I still stand by that mantra. However the players that the Sharks are missing will make it very difficult for them to win and that is no doubt why we see out of contention in the odds. The Roosters have also flexed their muscles in recent weeks and there is a reason why they are sitting in second spot on the competition table. Don’t get too carried away just yet though, they were great against the Dragons in their last outing but that win was masked a little by just how poorly the Dragons played. Before that, the Roosters demonstrated how strong they could be in defence and that is where this game is going to be won and lost. The Sharks will have an uphill battle to wrestle the match off the Roosters but need to rely on their defence keeping them in this game. It will to some extent, but then Carney and Townsend will have to put the finishing touches on their efforts and having seen what the Roosters forwards have done to some halves pairings this season, it could be a bridge too far for them minus their stars. For that reason, I will have to go with the Roosters but they will not get away with this one as easy as the odds suggest. Expect the Sharks to fight in this game right until the final whistle.

Suggested Bet
Roosters 1-12 @ $3.10

Home to Roost with $$$ = Roosters 7-12 @ $5.25 – The margin that is mentioned above does offer plenty of value for the punter, but if you want to bite off a little more, then consider this option. The Sharks should keep this game tight and a 10-point margin sounds about right here.

RTS Success = Roger Tuivasa-Sheck FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – RTS returns to the side this week and resume his position on the right side of the field. SBW loves moving across to his edge and offloading a pass that can put him into open space and he is one player that will want to return from injury with a strong performance here.

Good luck!
Scooby

Penrith Panthers v Newcastle Knights

Sunday footy action only has two games this week, but the reduced round will do little to deter fans away from two exciting contests. The first will kick off at 2pm out in Penrith, as the Panthers host a rejuvenated Newcastle team. The Panthers are performing far and beyond what anyone expected of them and while they will probably not contend for the title, they are laying the foundations for a very good 2014 season. All of this has occurred under a horrific injury toll that has seen unheralded players step up into new roles and it has served them well. It is small steps for the Panthers at this stage though and things are not made any easier with news of a few more players forced to the sidelines. A few sides could do worse than focus on the Panthers as a blueprint towards rebuilding the club. The Knights will be hoping that the mounting injury toll will not inspire the Panthers forward and they can put together two wins on the road. It was a very pleasing performance for them in their last game as they were able to outplay the Bulldogs on the road. It was hardly a trip down the F3 to ANZ Stadium though as the fixture took both sides up to Mackay. Travelling has been a problem for the Knights all season long and winning in the fashion they did, sent a message to the rest of the competition that they were beginning to find their feet. It would’ve been even more satisfying for their forwards who have had more than a few questions asked of their performances in recent weeks. The loudest of all those was the uncertainty about their aging side. This game is a very important contest and as they battle for a Top 8 spot, this game may prove even more valuable to the eventual success of the two teams at the end of the season.

Penrith Panthers

Just when you thought that the fitness of the Panthers side could not take a greater hit, they now will have a few more players sitting on the sidelines through injury. Second rower Matt Robinson and prop Nigel Plum are both out of this game and they will be tough to replace in defence. Mose Masoe is named to start at prop in place of Plum and Clint Newton will take Robinsons spot in the back row. Lewis Brown was a late withdrawal in the Panthers last match but they have named him here and he is expected to play. Brad Tighe is another player who is reportedly struggling to overcome an injury and it looks likely that he will withdraw from this match. If he does, Brown may be forced out to the centres and Ryan Simpkins may start alongside Newton. Jeremy Latimore also makes a return to the side and he will look to offer some impact off the bench. Some questions were asked of Ivan Cleary in last week’s press conference around the impending departure of Luke Walsh at the end of the season. No doubt if Cleary has his time over again, he perhaps would rethink his decision because Walsh is showing promising signs in terms of player development and maturity.

Newcastle Knights

There is only the one change for the Knights this week and that will be on the bench. Zane Tetevano is relegated back to 18^th man and will probably miss out on selection if all players are fit. This move has opened up the opportunity for Korbin Sims to be named in the 17 and the youngster will be out to make the most of another opportunity that he has been given. They have also chosen to name their SOO players, James McManus and Darius Boyd, who were opposing wingers during Wednesdays match. They are both expected to play here although they will be back to their customary positions. The Knights still have a few questions hanging over their heads but their performance against the Bulldogs is one that they should attempt to emulate. In that game, their forwards were strong and were buoyed by the experience that Danny Buderus and Craig Gower offered around the ruck. By no means are the Knights one of the youngest sides in the competition, but they are a very experienced team that knows what it takes to get a win.

Recent History

Overall = Panthers 13 Draw 3 Knights 21

Last 5 games = Panthers 1 Knights 4

At Centrebet Stadium = Panthers 5 Draw 3 Knights 11

Stats that matter

• Both sides are playing very disciplined football when it comes to errors. The Knights average 9.8 per game (2^nd) and the Panthers are just behind them with an average of 10.1 (4^th). However both teams are capable of lapses and have both twice committed 14 errors in a match.
• The Panthers are testing out a lot of defences in the league this season and their average line breaks is an example of this. So far this season, they average 4.6 per game and are ranked 5^th in the competition. The Knights have had a harder time of it though and average just 3.6 (=11^th) per game.
• Expect a close game ahead as the teams are very close in the average points they allow in defence and score in attack. The Panthers average 22.1 (4^th) in attack while the Knights are slightly ahead of them, scoring 22.2 points (3^rd) per game. On defence the teams are again close and Panthers (18.0 – 6^th) are again only slightly behind the Knights (17.0 – 5^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Panthers $2.00 Knights $1.85
Centrebet = Panthers $1.95 Knights $1.88
Sportsbet = Panthers $2.00 Knights $1.85
Betfair = Panthers $2.06 Knights $1.90

Verdict

This is a very tricky game and the fact that the Knights are travelling does lend a lot more thought to the Panthers. However with their current injury toll, it is difficult to see the Panthers getting the edge in this one. The Knights are a side that appears to be back on track following their win over the Bulldogs in Mackay and the whole squad will have to use the confidence that they have gained. That is not to say the Panthers are completely out of this contest. The players that have stepped into the side this year have proven that coach Ivan Cleary can motivate them to achieve their best. A lot of it will also come down to which Newcastle team steps off the bus but I am confident the right one will and we will see them grab a victory. It will be closer than most think and the Knights will have to find a little extra in their play to get the job done.

Suggested Bet
Knights -2.5 @ $2.10

Close Knight out = Knights 1-12 @ $3.10 – As stated above, this match will be close and that means the odds on offer will be great to cash in on. Expect a tough contest and hopefully the right Newcastle team can step off the bus and work hard for a victory here.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles v Gold Coast Titans

The Sunday 3pm “match of the day” heads out to Brookvale Oval this week as the Sea Eagles want to continue on a 2-game winning streak against a Titans side that is quickly slipping out of the Top 8. It is a welcome break for the Sea Eagles from MNF and despite the turn around from last game, they will be readying themselves for a strong run home. They’re one of the sides that fans are suggesting will be there at the end of the season and with the class that this side features, you would think that they are a genuine threat of winning the premiership. In the last few week though, a few cracks have appeared and the depth of their club is being stretched at the moment. Their coach Geoff Toovey will have his work cut out for him but the job is made a little easier with the experience that runs out on the field. The Titans are having a few injury troubles of their own and their performances in recent weeks have been disappointing to say the least. This season always had the potential to go down this road but the promising start they had suggested it might not eventuate. It has and their coach John Cartwright will be tested and perhaps is fighting to keep his place at the club. They too, possess a host of experience in their team that strengthens their lineup, however they are not at key positions (halfback, 5/8 and hooker) like the Sea Eagles. Eventually, that could be their undoing and they are in control of their future. It will be interesting to see if they can rise to the occasion but if they don’t, it will make their charge to the Finals even more difficult.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Finally with the opportunity to move away from MNF, the Sea Eagles will be readying themselves for a strong run home to the Finals. They are always a dangerous side and one that is worth consideration when you take a look at the quality of player that they possess. In this game, both of the Sea Eagles SOO stars Anthony Watmough and Daley Cherry-Evans have been named to play. Watmough was fantastic for the Blues and was up there as one of their best. It was clear when he took the field because he lifted the intensity to another level. As for DCE, despite being a part of a winning side, his minutes were limited off the bench but he never shied away from the job that had to be done and he was too happy to put his hand up and carry the ball forward when his side needed it most. On the bench, Nick Skinner retains his spot in the side and this was the case in the Sea Eagles last game where George Rose was a late withdrawal. Rose will be keen to get back into the side but Skinner did little to make Toovey think twice about picking him.

Gold Coast Titans

The first (and most surprising) thing you will notice in the Titans lineup this week is that they have chosen not to name their two SOO players. Both Greg Bird and Nate Myles will no doubt be feeling the effects from a very physical game of football but with the Titans in the current predicament they’re in now, you would think that they would be a little reluctant to leave them out of a game. Don’t be surprised if they are a late inclusion but you can understand why John Cartwright would’ve gone this way and it will ensure that both players are fresh for the run home to the Finals. In other news, Dave Taylor returns from injury and has been named to take Bird’s spot in the back row. Jamie Dowling has been named in the centres and this has come at the expense of youngster Hymel Hunt. On the bench, the Titans will also welcome back utility Beau Falloon to the side and he will take Sam Irwin’s spot as the reserve hooker. Falloon was unluckily injured earlier this season when starting for Matt Srama and his potential within this side is up there with (if not more than) the starting hooker. Luke O’Dwyer has been named as the 18^th man and he is moved from the centres, to accommodate the return of Brad Takairangi from injury. At fullback, Jordan Rankin is named to start in place of Jahrome Hughes and the dynamic youngster will be aiming to make himself a regular selection after tasting the top grade in the early stages of his career.

Recent History

Overall = Sea Eagles 6 Titans 5

Last 5 games = Sea Eagles 2 Titans 3

At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 3 Titans 2

Stats that matter

• The Sea Eagles completion rate is really helping them when it comes to the close games this season. Currently, they average 74% per game and are ranked in 5^th spot in the league and they’re well ahead of the Titans who are ranked in 11^th spot with 71.4%.
• The Sea Eagles give away very little in defence and prove how strong they are with only 13.8 points conceded per game (2^nd). A few poor performances from the Titans have affected them though and they now average 21.1 (12^th).
• Defence may be the deciding factor in this match as both teams are ranked quite closely in attack. The Sea Eagles are ranked in 5^th spot with an average of 21.7 points per game and are slightly ahead of the Titans who score 20.6 per match (7^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $1.12 Titans $6.50
Centrebet = Sea Eagles $1.14 Titans $6.00
Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $1.13 Titans $6.25
Betfair = Sea Eagles $1.14 Titans $7.80

Verdict

Last time this game was played, it was the Titans that were able to strangle the Sea Eagles out of the game. It was surprising to see that outcome on that occasion, however it would be even more astonishing to see it happen again here. The Sea Eagles are back on track with their last two wins and this is the time of the year when they rise to the occasion and their senior players step up and take control. Both sides are struggling with injuries and their depth is going to be tested but the players that the Sea Eagles retain in their squad outclass the Titans in almost every area. Of course, this is all decided upon before considering the fact that the Sea Eagles will be playing this one at Brookvale Oval. Although they have suffered a few losses there this season, you have to be wary when they are at home as they seem to lift to another level. This game could get out to anything and if the Sea Eagles are “switched on” in defence, it could be very difficult for the Titans to score very many points.

Suggested Bet
Sea Eagles 13-18 @ $4.25

Snakes house = Brett Stewart FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Stewart has had three games back in the top grade now and the fitness he has gained from those outings has no doubt helped him in improving his game. He is beginning to become more threatening and there are great odds on offer for a man that has an amazing strike rate at Brookvale.

South Sydney Rabbitohs v St George-Illawarra Dragons

Monday night football delivers us a rivalry this week as the competition-leading Rabbitohs, host a Dragons side that is coming to terms with the fact that their season is over. It is polar opposites in this contest and the fortunes of the two sides are reflected in the quality players they have in key positions. Further to that, the Rabbitohs have attacking threats all around the field and are able to back that up with some very sturdy defence. The Rabbitohs are going to be tested though in the run home to the Finals as every side in the competition is going to lift to another level when facing the best there is. It is uncharted territory for them but their coach Michael Maguire will aim to have them grounded and he will make sure that they do not get caught up in their hype. As for the Dragons, their season has not gone according to plan. They have suffered a few injuries and they then made the decision to release Jamie Soward from the remainder of his contract. There have been a few positives for them though; they were able to lure Gareth Widdop away from the Storm (albeit they did have to pay a sizable sum for him). Also, their forwards are developing into very strong players that were able to work their way into representative teams (most notably Trent Merrin). With little else to motivate them, it will be interesting to see what attitude they take into this game. As I alluded to earlier, teams are always going to lift when they are facing one of the top teams in the competition so perhaps that will get them through the early stages. However if they start to be continually outclassed, they will then have a mental battle to undertake. There are many questions still unanswered heading into this game and it is a welcoming game to have on a Monday. It is sure to motivate any rugby league fan to get through the day and relax in the night with this contest.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

On paper, there are no changes to the Rabbitohs team that travelled across to Perth in their last game to get a victory over an in-form Warriors team. However they will not line up that way following the news that their superstar, Greg Inglis, has suffered a posterior cruciate ligament and will be out from anywhere between 4-8 weeks. It has been said that he could be back in 3, but given the Rabbitohs current situation, they would be reluctant to rush him back into the side if the team was in winning form. This opens the door for 19^th man, Justin Hunt, to come back into the side and fill the fullback role. Coach Michael Maguire has left his options open though, and has also named Tom Burgess (18^th) and Luke Keary (20^th) alongside Hunt. The Rabbitohs are also banking on the fact that Chris McQueen and Ben Te’o will be able to back up from their SOO victory. Te’o had limited minutes but did offer an impact when he took the field but he was overshadowed by the efforts of McQueen, who played the entire 80 minutes and got through a mountain of defence.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

The most intriguing move this week for the Dragons is the naming of Adam Quinlan at 5/8 and Chase Stanley moving back to the centres. Stanley did appear out of his depth in the halves and despite possessing a host of talent, found it difficult to move this side around the field. That is not to suggest that Quinlan will be an easy fix, he has been moved from fullback and may find it tough to adjust but it has allowed Stanley to tighten up the fringes. Along with the return of Matt Cooper in the centres, Nathan Green and Charly Runciman have been left out of the team. Of course, the Dragons are expecting their NSW players to return and Josh Dugan will start at fullback. Nothing else changes with the return of Trent Merrin and Brett Morris, but the return of Bronson Harrison has forced Tyson Frizell back to the bench and Matt Prior back to 18^th man. He will also be joined by Daniel Vidot (19^th), yet both players are expected to miss out if all players are named fit to play.

Recent History

Overall = Rabbitohs 6 Dragons 14

Last 5 games = Rabbitohs 3 Dragons 2

At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 2 Dragons 4

Stats that matter

• The Rabbitohs have proven tough for any side to hold this season and why wouldn’t they average 4.9 line breaks per game (3^rd). As for the Dragons, things are proving very difficult and they are ranked in =15^th spot in this area and create just 3.1 line breaks per game.
• This could also be why the Dragons have struggled to score points. They are ranked 16^th in the competition and score an average of just 13.6 points per match. AS for the Rabbitohs, they are the best in the competition and score an average of 26.5 points per match.
• One of the areas the Dragons are performing well in is missed tackles. They average 24.8 missed tackles per game (5^th) but it has still lead to them conceding an average of 20.8 points (11^th). As for the Rabbitohs, they miss an average of 24.4 tackles per match (4^th) but only allow their opponents to score 14.4 points per match (3^rd).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.14 Dragons $6.00
Centrebet = Rabbitohs $1.14 Dragons $6.10
Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.13 Dragons $6.25
Betfair = Rabbitohs $1.14 Dragons $7.40

Verdict

These two teams share a strong rivalry, but their difference on the competition ladder suggests that this match is going to sway in the Rabbitohs favor. It is no surprise to see them heavy favorites here and that is exactly the way I am going to select. They have shown on numerous occasions this year that they are a force to be reckoned with. People still doubt their credentials (to some extent) and even more questions are going to be asked of them with the injury to Inglis. They will want to send a message to the rest of the competition that they are not a “one-man-team” and they can get things moving in the right direction with a win here. The Dragons shouldn’t trouble them too much across the field; they are uncreative in attack and lack enough flair to trouble the top defensive teams in the competition. To put it simply, this game is not a matter of “who will win”, but rather “how much the Rabbitohs will win by”; so let’s try to frame our bets around that train of thought.

Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 13-18 @ $4.50

Super Sammy = Sam Burgess FTS and/or LTS @ $17 – Burgess’ form has been great recently and with the experience returning to the Dragons edges, the Bunnies may just have to open the Dragons up down the middle to begin with. Cue big Sam Burgess trucking the ball up the middle and close to the line. It is certainly hard to anyone to try and stop.