As the decider looms for Origin, Round 18 of the NRL will occur yet be overshadowed by the pinnacle of rugby league. In amongst this all, teams that are still fostering hopes of making the Finals will soon have to make a run for it or jeopardise losing out before the final round of the competition. It will be an unfortunate set of circumstances for those sides that miss the “business end” of the season but the coaches and players of those sides will risk facing the sack if their poor performances continue to dominate their play. The NRL can be a very tough place to succeed at the best of times and several clubs will not need a reminder of just how hard it can be. This is a competition that demands success and for some clubs a “losing culture” has embedded itself and they’re in need of a multitude of changes. There will only be 4 games this weekend and half of the sides in the competition will have a chance to regroup, while the other half will have to contend with representative players leaving their club when they need them most.

Brisbane Broncos v Cronulla Sharks

The Friday night game is no doubt a game that is severally impacted upon by Origin and you cannot help but wonder what a game featuring two full-strength sides would’ve offered. In saying that, the Broncos have offered little this season and each loss they have is bringing coach Anthony Griffin closer to facing the axe. What initially began as a successful stint at the club has quickly spiraled out of control and he appears to now be out of his depth at this level. It becomes even more puzzling for fans when you consider the potential that this roster offers although their halves have also let them down in terms of scoring points. They sit in 13^th spot on the table on 14 points (with one bye still to come next week) but a loss here could mean they would have to finish the season undefeated to even have a chance. You’d be wrong for thinking that the Sharks were going to be in the same predicament as the Broncos at this stage following the start to the season that they had. The story has taken a different course though and the Sharks Finals hopes are alive and well as they sit in 5^th spot on 20 points. They would be the first to admit that they still have a long way to go before they can be considered a genuine threat but they are moving in the right direction. It has helped that they have been able to maintain majority of their squad each week and when they have had players out; others have been able to step in a fill their shoes amicably. The Broncos could take a lot away from that and the Sharks are going to be another tough team to get past here. It will be interesting to see if the players stepping up for the Broncos are able show enough desperation to grab a victory because if it doesn’t, the Broncos could be heading to their worst finish ever recorded in the competition.

Brisbane Broncos

The Broncos again have to deal with the disruption that is SOO to their lineup. Not that it should matter too much though because with the representative players present, their form has certainly not improved. In the centres, Josh Hoffman moves from the wing to cover for Justin Hodges and the new face on the wing is Jordan Kahu, who is returning from injury. In the forwards, Ben Hannant returns to the side from injury and it is a timely return as he replaces their captain Sam Thaiday. The two other changes in the forwards is the return of David Stagg to the second row in place of Matt Gillett and the promotion of Mitchell Dodds from the bench to start at lock in place of Corey Parker. The new face on the bench is former Rooster Lama Tasi and Griffin has also chosen to name an extended bench. Jarrod Wallace is 18^th man (as he was last week) but Nick Slyney (19^th) and Scott Anderson (20^th) also join him. The Broncos were aware that this was always going to happen and their depth is always going to be able to cope with it. However their current predicament isn’t ideal and the youngsters coming into the side will not benefit from poor performances.

Cronulla Sharks

Much like the Broncos, the Sharks have a few disruptions to contend with this weekend. In the backline, Luke Lewis vacates the centres and he is replaced by Stewart Mills. It will be interesting to see if Lewis returns to the centres following Origin but the injury-plagued Mills will want to put in a solid performance to show that he is still capable of the potential he promised during the early stages of his career. Beau Ryan is out of this game due to injury but he was a late withdrawal against the Tigers last week. Nathan Stapleton takes his place again and hopefully Michael Gordon will be able to take the field to limit the disruptions to his side. In the forwards, Bryce Gibbs has earned himself a start in place of the dynamic Andrew Fifita and Mark Taufua takes his place on the bench. Anthony Tupou has unfortunately suffered another injury and Jason Bukuya is named to start in the second row along with Wade Graham. Tyrone Peachey is the new face on the bench in place of Bukuya but the Sharks will not want to see him develop too much, as he is off to the Panthers at the end of the season. Coach Shane Flanaghan has chosen to name an 18^th man and it means that Ben Pomeroy is recalled into the team, but he will probably miss out on selection if all players prove that they’re fit to play.

Recent History

Overall = Broncos 30 Sharks 17

Last 5 games = Broncos 4 Sharks 1

At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 11 Sharks 2

Stats that matter

• The Broncos had small glimpses of chances last week against the Storm and had they taken them, it could’ve been a different outcome. However at the end of the day, they can only blame themselves with 16 errors, 62.2% completion rate and 41 missed tackles.
• The Sharks forwards build a solid platform with how well they are carrying the ball forward. So far this season, they average 9.15m per carry and are ranked 1^st in the competition. This will be an area the Broncos will want to improve on but they will find it difficult minus their representative stars. Then again, they’ve had them for majority of the season they have only average 8.56m (14^th).
• Missed tackles have been a problem for the Broncos all season but it has lead to them leaking too many points just yet. They average 29.6 missed tackles per game (15^th) while allowing their opponent to score an average of 20.2 (9^th). It is a different story for the Sharks though, they average 25.5 missed tackles (6^th) and average 18.1 points conceded (6^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Broncos $2.40 Sharks $1.60
Centrebet = Broncos $2.40 Sharks $1.60
Sportsbet = Broncos $2.35 Sharks $1.62
Betfair = Broncos $2.36 Sharks $1.62

Verdict

If it is not D-day for the Broncos, it is very close to it. Something has to happen at this club sooner rather than later otherwise more than just a coach will be sacked. They seem to have their backs to the wall this week though as they look to compete against a Sharks team that has demonstrated ability in several areas this season. Playing the game at Suncorp Stadium will aid them to some extent, but it appears as though the talking will be done out on the field by the Sharks. If you can remember back to this corresponding game last year, the Sharks were able to capture their 2^nd victory (ever!) at Suncorp Stadium and cement themselves as a genuine contender for the Finals. I believe that the same will occur here and the Sharks are set for a win, but only if they can knuckle down and grind out a tough performance amongst the desperate Broncos play. It should be a fairly close contest though and one that should go down to the wire.

Suggested Bet

Sharks 1-12 @ $2.90

Sharky start = Sharks Try FSP @ $1.90 – In the last 10 games, the Broncos have only scored the first try in the match on 2 occasions and scoring points appears to be something very difficult to come by. The Sharks will throw a lot at their opponents early on and expect the Broncos to have their hands full holding them.

Can he or Carney = Todd Carney FTS and/or LTS @ $17 – Carney proved last week that he is beginning to become confident enough to take the ball to the line with conviction. Not that he wasn’t doing it in the first place, but passing has been his first option for majority of the season. We all know how talented he is when he does that so expect him to trouble the Broncos here too.

Parramatta Eels v Penrith Panthers

There is only one game of rugby league on this Saturday night but unfortunately for rugby league fans, it isn’t offering a lot of quality. Even the most hardened fans of both clubs will find it difficult to maintain their focus for this game but it is the predicament that we are left with and there isn’t anything that we can do about it. So the action will kick off at 7:30pm out at Parramatta Stadium as the Eels look to put another poor performance behind them against a surging Penrith outfit. It has been a tough season for the Eels to date and there is little for their fans to get excited about thus far. There appears to be more trouble at this club than just the quality of football but many people would’ve been refreshed by the display by Mitchell Allgood in the closing minutes of their game against Manly. Regardless of how you viewed it, reality is that the loss to the Sea Eagles was the second time this season that they’ve conceded 50 points or more. Defence is a major issue but so too is attack and their coach Ricky Stuart has a lot to improve on in the offseason. Perhaps a culture change is needed along with a complete cleanout of the fledging players in the team. That exact process was undertaken at the Panther through last season and at the moment, it appears to be paying dividends for them. Not many people would’ve thought that they would be sitting in 7^th position on 18 points after 18 round of the competition. However that is the exact position they find themselves in and full credit must go to everyone (player, coach and club worker) that has worked hard to get to this point. It was always going to be difficult for them to compete and even if they were to miss the Finals, they could probably still consider this season to be a success to some extent. Culture is certainly not a problem for them and it is refreshing to see them play with a whole host of emotions each week. It will be interesting to see just how they respond here against the lowest ranked team in the competition but it could very well be the Eels that lift after another lackluster display last week. If you can manage it, sit back and soak up all that this game has to offer.

Parramatta Eels

The Eels definitely need a shake up and the focus of coach Ricky Stuart should now be motivating this team to develop for the following seasons. It is going to be difficult for them to do that considering a few players within the team have been told that they’re no longer required for next season and beyond. In a positive move, Willie Tonga returns following a lengthy spell as a result of injury and his return could not come soon enough as Jacob Loko is again forced out through injury (knee). Jake Mullaney has been named to play fullback but this is nothing new, as he was a late inclusion for Hayne last week. The biggest news for the Eels is the “dropping” of their halves (Chris Sandow and Joseph Paulo) to NSW Cup. Stuart is trying to put the rest of the squad on notice but perhaps it is a little late for that. Coming into the side in their place will be Ben Roberts (5/8) and Luke Kelly (halfback), but from what we have seen from them this season, they will be hard pressed trying to find a solution. It is no surprise to see Mitch Allgood out of the team following his fight with Steve Matai and he will have a 2-week rest on the sidelines due to suspension. FuiFui Moimoi has been named to start the match in the front row and the new face on the bench is Matt Ryan. Also joining Ryan is Kaysa Pritchard and Junior Paulo, who will look to add some impact when they take the field.

Penrith Panthers

The Panthers will no doubt be full of confidence heading into this game following a win over the Titans. There has been little reason for coach Ivan Cleary to change the current team and this has proven to hold consistency within their play. There is one minor change, Adam Docker returns to the side at lock and Ryan Simpkins is relegated back to 18^th man. Like the Eels, the Panthers will have no players on SOO duty. It is certainly not a sign of their level they are playing but rather a lack of “major” names within their side. Tim Grant can consider himself unlucky to some extent but considering the RLWC is on at the end of the season, he must focus on playing quality football to make that team to travel to the UK.

Recent History

Overall = Eels 52 Draw 1 Panthers 33

Last 5 games = Eels 1 Panthers 4

At Parramatta Stadium = Eels 12 Panthers 9

Stats that matter

• The Eels have a whole host of problems but a lack of creativity in attack is limiting the amount of points they are scoring. For the season, they only average 3.2 line breaks per game (15^th) and have scored just 14.9 points (14^th).
• Panthers coach Ivan Cleary has a very strong focus on discipline and an asset as the Panthers look to rebuild. For the season, they average 75.3% completion rate (2^nd) and commit 10.3 errors per game (4^th).
• Unfortunately we could be heading for a very scrappy contest with both sides having high numbers when it comes to missed tackles. The Panthers would like to decrease the 28.9 missed tackles they allow per game (13^th) but for the Eels the situation is far worse, averaging 29.7 per game (16^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Eels $3.25 Panthers $1.25
Centrebet = Eels $3.40 Panthers $1.34
Sportsbet = Eels $3.30 Panthers $1.35
Betfair = Eels $3.55 Panthers $1.31

Verdict

It is extremely tough to see the Eels winning this match. For starters, they are sitting in last spot on the competition ladder and were comprehensively beaten in every area last week by the Sea Eagles. You do have to be wary though, when they had 50-ponts scored against them earlier this season, they were able to bounce back the following week to grab a win against the Sharks. I am not going to begin to suggest that the same can occur here but that is one factor that leads me to thinking that this game will be a closer contest than most people think. Another factor is the fatigue that the Panthers will have to overcome following their match against the Titans in Darwin. The result of the game will probably reduce the fatigue that they will have to contend with but it still may become a factor. I believe that the Panthers will get a victory here and the hardest thing to decide on will be the margin. I was leaning towards the 1-12 option but am quickly reminded that the Panther are ranked 3^rd in the league for points scored (22.4 per game) and believe that it will be too much for the Eels defence to match up to.

Suggested Bet

Panthers -7.5 @ $1.75

Leaping Panthers = Panthers 13 + @ $2.25 – As stated above, the average amount of points scored by the Panthers is great compared to the Eels. Last week they flexed their muscles against the Titans and expect much of the same here from a side that is playing with a whole host of confidence.

Pray for Simmo = David Simmons FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – Simmons has scored the first try for the Panthers 2 in the last 4 games and he is in sublime form of late. He is proving that he is more than capable of finishing off an attacking movement or get on the end of a kick to the corner. The inexperienced Eels wingers are certainly going to have their hands full here.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v Melbourne Storm

There is only one game of rugby league this Sunday for fans to get their fix from and it is a shame that both sides are not going to be at full strength. It is a replay of last year’s grand final and it will be the second time these two sides have met this season. In their first meeting down in Melbourne, it was the Storm that were successful 22-18 and many though that was going to be the beginning of the revival for the Bulldogs after a slow start to the season. Unfortunately for them it wasn’t and they now find themselves equal 6^th on 18 points, but listed as 9^th as a result of points for and against. Their recent loss to the Knights was frustrating to say the least and that game allowed the Knights to draw level with them on the table. It would’ve been more disappointing for them to see their forwards beaten in the middle of the field and unable to set a platform that created any space for their outside backs. It was a completely different story for the Storm last week in a 32-0 performance that was needed, in order to bounce back following a surprising loss to the Tigers. It was a dominating display by their stars and a painful reminder for the NSW fans just how capable the “Big 3” are when it matters. It will be extremely difficult for them to win here without them but when they found themselves in predicament against the Titans earlier this season, they turned out a very surprising display and were competitive to say the least. It is a credit to their coach, Craig Bellamy, who is able to motivate the incoming players to his side to strive to reach their potential. Many people have the same opinion of his opponent in this match, Des Hasler, and it will be a thrilling contest to see which team is able to execute the correct game plan. The odds suggest that it should be a pretty straightforward job for the Bulldogs but you can never be sure of the outcome of a rugby league match just yet, as there are several contributing factors. Let’s take a closer look to see if we cannot unearth a winner or two that can round out the weekend on the right foot.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have a lot of regrouping to do following their loss to the Knights. As I have alluded to earlier, it was very disappointing to see their forwards dominated in almost every area of the game. This week, they will also have to make do without Josh Reynolds and Josh Morris who are away on NSW Origin duty. Replacing Morris in the centres this week is Tim Lafai and he will want to make the most of the chance that he has been given. Joel Romelo has been named at 5/8 and he will have his work cut out trying to replace Reynolds attacking ability. He is certainly not going to have any trouble maintaining his aggression and the strength in his defence will also be important. In the forwards, Hasler has chosen to revert back to a formula that served them well through last season. This has seen Sam Kasino moved back into the starting side and James Graham moved back to the bench. Hasler has also named an extended interchange but it appears as though Tim Browne (18^th) and Martin Taupau (19^th) will probably miss out on selection if all players are fit and ready to go.

Melbourne Storm

As was always going to be the case, the Storm will be without their SOO players for this match. It isn’t exactly panic stations though because the players coming into the team will have a point to prove and want to maintain a position in the top grade. Justin O’Neill has been moved from the wing to play fullback in place of Billy Slater. Mahe Fonua is the new face on the edge but he has shown his vulnerability under the high ball throughout different games. Ben Hampton has been named to play halfback for Cooper Cronk and will want to improve upon his two-try debut against the Titans. In the forwards, Ryan Hinchcliffe has been named to play hooker in place of Cameron Smith. This move has left a whole at lock and Slade Griffin has been called from the bench to start. Tohu Harris will also join Griffin in the starting team and he is there to replace Ryan Hoffman in the second row. The new faces on the bench are Junior Moors and Mitch Garbutt but Bellamy has also named Junior Sa’u (18^th) and Tim Glasby (19^th) as possible cover for any withdrawals, while also leaving a few options available for Bellamy.

Recent History

Overall = Bulldogs 15 Storm 16

Last 5 games = Bulldogs 1 Storm 4

At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 0 Storm 4

Stats that matter

• The Bulldogs have failed to allow their strong missed tackles statistics to correlate into reducing the amount of points scored against them. In their performances this season, they have averaged just 23.2 missed tackles (2^nd) but allowed their opponents to score an average of 20.9 points (11^th).
• It is a vastly different story for the Storm though and they have proved very difficult to break down in defence. They are ranked 3^rd in the league for missed tackles with 23.9 and allow their opponents to score an average of 14.3 points (3^rd).
• It is no secret that the Bulldogs forwards have failed to recapture the form which we saw from them last season. It culminated in a poor showing against the Knights last week where they made just 7.33m per carry of the ball. To make matters worse, they are ranked 16^th in the competition for this stat and average only 8.34m per carry of the ball.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Bulldogs $1.20 Storm $4.75
Centrebet = Bulldogs $1.20 Storm $4.65
Sportsbet = Bulldogs $1.22 Storm $4.50
Betfair = Bulldogs $1.26 Storm $4.60

Verdict

Everyone believes that it is always a foregone conclusion when the Storm miss the “Big 3” during the SOO period. This is a very valid point and any team would struggle if you were to take their 3 top players out of the side, let alone the caliber of player that the Storm will be without. I am not going to suggest that they are going to be able to win, but the Bulldogs will have to dig deep to grab a victory. Something is still missing from their performances and they will want to move away from their efforts last week. No doubt, Hasler is going to challenge his pack to stand up and take charge of games. If they are unable to do so, the Storm are going to have a chance on winning this game. It is very difficult to see that happening and I am going to stick with the Bulldogs getting a victory here. As for the margin, the Storm will still have a relatively strong defensive structure and it will be difficult to see the Bulldogs really causing a “blow-out”.

Suggested Bet
Bulldogs 1-12 @ $3

Win with this margin = Bulldogs 7-12 @ $5.25 – If you want to grab a little more value out of your bet, then consider this option. The Bulldogs will need to put in a very dominating display to win by 13+ and we would have to see the Storm’s defensive structure crumble.

North Queensland Cowboys v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Before we can get too carried away with Origin, we have to get past this interesting MNF match up in Townsville. Much like the Broncos, the door that was open for the finals is now only slightly ajar for the Cowboys. Majority of this season has been filled with disappointment, as this talented roster has been unable to live up to the expectations that were set of them. Travelling has always been their Achilles heal and last week the Raiders beat them down in Canberra. They could always rely on their form at home but even that has deserted them this season. Each loss they have only raises more questions about this organization and it appears as though the loudest of all of them is around how long their coach, Neil Henry, will be able to maintain his position. Perhaps there is more than meets the eye to the troubles of the Cowboys and something does need to happen sooner rather than later. Over at Manly, they were able to climb their way back into the winner’s circle last Monday against the Eels. That win put a halt to a 3-game losing streak that they were stuck in the middle of and it was built around a strong performance from their forwards and classy execution from their halves. This will be the 3^rd week in a row that the Sea Eagles feature in MNF and while it is allowing them to get into a groove with “7-day turn around”, it is hurting the profit they are able to make as a club. They have let their football do the talking for majority of the season and have not worried about what others have though of them. The Cowboys would give anything to be in the same situation as their rivals but they now have a chance to “shock” the competition with a win. It is always a tough road trip to make up north but this Manly side looks well equipped to be competitive in this contest. The Origin decider is only days away and the focus of the rugby league world will shift once this game concludes. However do not over look it, this game is promising to be an exciting contest and a great way to gear up for the big game on Wednesday.

North Queensland Cowboys

Facing an uphill battle to finish the season on a high, the Cowboys are going to find it very difficult to be competitive without their SOO players. It is amazing to see so many Cowboys players feature in the representative games considering how poor their form has been as a team. This week, Antonio Winderstein has been moved from the wing and into the centres to cover for Brent Tate and Kalifa Faifai Loa is the new face on the wing. In the halves, Ray Thomspon has been moved to cover for JT at 5/8 while Anthony Mitchell is the new face at hooker. Glenn Hall shifts from the second row to start in the front row with Ricky Thorby as James Tamou and Matt Scott are on SOO duty. This has allowed Jason Taumalolo a chance to start the match in the second row. It is interesting to note that Tariq Sims has been dropped back to the bench and Ethan Lowe has been promoted to the starting side and a chance to make that position his for the remainder of the season. Joel Riethmuller has also been named to start at lock and this has come at the expense of Dallas Johnson. On the bench, Neil Henry has chosen to name Michael Morgan as 18^th man, but he will probably miss the game if all players are fit. A lot of the changes have been forced this week but no doubt Henry will be hoping a few others that he has made act as a catalyst to a better performance.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

The Sea Eagles have made a habit of naming the same team each week following their MNF performances. This week though, they were aware that the injury to Tom Symonds would have him missing this match and they have chosen to name Ligi Sao as his replacement. They will also have to contend with a few of their players missing through SOO duty. Daly Cherry-Evans has been replaced by Peta Hiku at halfback and it is surprising to see coach Geoff Toovey go this way following the performances of Hiku at fullback this season. He was dropped back to NSW Cup following the return of Brett Stewart and it is going to be difficult for him to adjust to this position. There is no doubt that he is a talented player but the NRL can be a tough place to make it as a halfback (just ask Chris Sandow). Anthony Watmough is the other Sea Eagles player that is on SOO duty and Jamie Buhrer has been promoted to the starting side, with Richie Fa’aoso being the new face on the bench. They do lose a lot with the omission of Watmough but Buhrer is a quality player and will be looking to press his claims for a regular starting position in the team.

Recent History

Overall = Cowboys 7 Sea Eagles 13

Last 5 games = Cowboys 1 Sea Eagles 4

At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 5 Sea Eagles 5

Stats that matter

• The Cowboys are the worst team in the competition when it comes to errors. Currently. They average 12.2 per match and they are making things extremely difficult for them, especially considering their completion rate sits at 71.2% (12^th) for the season.
• The Sea Eagles are a very difficult side to break down at the best of times and only the best sides in the competition have been able to put multiple points on them. This is perhaps why they average only 13.7 points conceded in defence for the season (2^nd). Alarming though, in the 6 losses they have had for the season, they have averaged 20 points conceded.
• Conceding points has been a problem for the Cowboys and they can relate that back to the averaged missed tackles per game. Currently, they average 28.8 missed tackles (2^nd) and this has lead to them allowing 19.2 points on the scoreboard (8^th).

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Cowboys $3.00 Sea Eagles $1.40
Centrebet = Cowboys $3.05 Sea Eagles $1.40
Sportsbet = Cowboys $2.95 Sea Eagles $1.42
Betfair = Cowboys $3.40 Sea Eagles $1.40

Verdict

It would take a very brave person to back the Cowboys in this match. Sure, they are playing at home where they have a good record but the quality of player that they are missing from their side is going to hurt them immensely. The Sea Eagles were on a slide recently but they bounced back to form in style. It would’ve also boosted their confidence to some extent and given them what they needed to go on and get the job done here. It will probably not be a walk in the park though. The Cowboys will put up a fight to some extent, but the Sea Eagles will be too strong for them. The home ground should keep the hosts in it a little longer than their opponents would like, but Manly should be able to control this game from start to finish.

Suggested Bet
Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $3.10

Lyon’s den = Jamie Lyon FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – Lyon has been playing solidly each week and the Sea Eagles have no hesitation to attack towards his side of the field. Without DCE, Foran will look to involve him more in this game and attempt to draw more than one defender towards him.

Good luck!

Scooby