Sydney Roosters (4th) v South Sydney Rabbitohs (11th)
The shine is taken of the oldest rivalry in rugby league and it again demonstrates the poor planning from the NRL to stage this game during the Origin period. Regardless of which player takes the field, there will be no shortage of passion (and hatred) towards one another in this contest. The Roosters will be desperate to win this contest, following a 44-12 demolition by the Sharks last week. There were positive signs early for the home team and the match appeared that it was going to live up to the hype that surrounded it in the lead up. A late try prior to HT increased the Sharks lead to 20-12 at the break and the Roosters disappointingly remained scoreless in the second half. Having just 40% possession for the match and completing at 73% limited the effectiveness of the home team, as they were forced to make 123 more tackles than their opponents. Again, this was a sign towards how much the Roosters need to improve in order to be a contender with September approaching. The Rabbitohs had no such issues in their upset 42-14 win over the Panthers on Sunday. Many had written off the chances of the home side and they proved many people wrong with a near flawless display. Over the 80 minutes, they completed at 86%, with just 6 errors halting their momentum; while 37 missed tackles didn’t demonstrate how resolute their defence was in shutting down the Panthers playmakers. More importantly, the win moved them within 4-points of the Top 8 and they will again sense an opportunity to make it 3-consecutive wins against a weaker opponent.
Team News
Roosters = Blake Ferguson, Mitchell Pearce, Dylan Napa and Boyd Cordner (all Origin) make way in this game. Joseph Manu shifts to the wing, with Mitchell Aubusson moving into the centres. Connor Watson is named at 5/8, with Luke Keary at halfback. Zane Tetevano is named at prop and Isaac Lui at lock, with Linsay Collins and Mitchell Cornish joining the bench.
Rabbitohs = Tom Burgess (suspended) is out, with Anthony Cherrington or Kyle Turner expected to be elevated from the reserves into the 17.
History
Overall = Roosters 23 Rabbitohs 11
Last 5 matches = Roosters 3 Rabbitohs 2
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 63% Rabbitohs 32%
Form = Roosters 1 loss – Rabbitohs 2 wins
Verdict
With 4 player unavailable for the Roosters through Origin, the Rabbitohs head into this game as favorites to make amends for their 14-point loss in Round 4. In that game, the Roosters dominated their rivals, forcing them to commit 14 errors over the 80 minutes. This match has a different set of circumstances and the Rabbitohs could continue their winning ways. They appear more capable given the players at their disposal, with the only challenge appearing to be halting the momentum of the Roosters forward pack. The Rooters still have quality at their disposal, yet will rely on Friend and JWH to get them over the advantage line and create pressure in the middle. Defence is one area that the home team will need to address; they miss an average of 32.5 tackles per game (6th in the competition) and to make matters worse, they commit 11.8 errors per game, which is the most of any other team. This worked against them last week when they played the Sharks and while the Rabbitohs have a lesser ability to build pressure compared with a team inside the Top 4. Nevertheless, the opportunity is there for the taking and they are more than capable based on last weeks effort against the Panthers. The last time the Roosters featured without their stars, they performed well, yet still went down 24-16 to the Raiders; it is no surprise that in that match they also missed 53 tackles and committed 16 errors. As for this game, the point scoring ability of the Rabbitohs in their past few wins has been outstanding, averaging a 21.3 point margin in their past 3 victories. It would be surprising to see the Roosters concede so many points after their effort last week and for that reason, taking the visitors to cover the line is the most logical option.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs -3.5 @ $1.85
Penrith Panthers (9th) v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (3rd)
The Panthers failed to make the most of their opportunity to regain confidence against the Rabbitohs, hammered 42-14 in a disappointing display from a talented team. It appears as though inexperience is getting the better of them at this stage of the season, struggling over 80 minutes with their execution. While their attack had issues, it was their 48 missed tackles that allowed their opponents to score 7 tries and if it were not for a 79th minute try to Josh Mansour, the margin could’ve been more embarrassing and reflective of just how poor they were. The loss means they sit 4-points out of the Top 8 and with time running out, will find it hard to make a charge; although in their remaining 9 matches, face just 3 Top 8 sides as it stands now (Sea Eagles twice & Dragons). Considering two of those matches are against their opponents here, this is would be a great starting point. The Sea Eagles will not give up this contest easily though, they are on a 5-game winning streak that has seen them rocket up the competition ladder to now sit in 3rd position. Their most recent victory saw them head over to Perth to beat the Warriors 26-22, forced to hold out several attacking raids from their opponents in the closing minutes. They are playing some impressive passages, that contest saw them commit just 7 errors for the match, while completing at 78% and beating their opponents with speed around the ruck. This has seen them be one of the leading teams in the competition in terms of attack, averaging 24 points per game and a threat anywhere on the field. Following his snub from Origin, expect DCE to prove a point in trying to lead his team to their 6th consecutive victory. As stated above, this game is also important, as these two sides will face off twice in the remaining rounds of the competition.
Team News
Panthers = Tyrone Peachey is named in the centres to cover for Dean Whare (injured), allowing Mitch Rein to return at hooker and Sione Katoa dropping back to the bench.
Sea Eagles = Jarrad Kennedy is named in the second row for Lewis Brown (injured), while Darcy Lussick starts at prop for Jake Trbojevic (Origin). Cameron Cullen and Shaun Lane come onto the bench.
History
Overall = Panthers 14 Sea Eagles 13
Last 5 matches = Panthers 4 Sea Eagles 1
At Pepper Stadium = Panthers 54% Sea Eagles 31%
Form = Panthers 2 losses – Sea Eagles 5 wins
Verdict
As poor as the Panthers were last week, the two teams are difficult to split in betting markets. The Sea Eagles lose a few players to injury and Origin, while many are also expecting the trip to Perth on the back of a short turnaround to cause fatigue. On top of that, the Panthers are a bogey team for the Sea Eagles with the visitors have only won 4 times in 13 attempts and you have to go back to Round 25, 2014 for their last win over their opponents; it is longer at this ground, with their last win coming back in Round 20, 2011. As for this game, the travel the visitors have done in recent weeks is bound to affect their performance; providing the Panthers make the most of this opportunity and play to their potential, they can overcome their opponents. It is easier said than done and as demonstrated in the past few weeks, the Panthers fail to make the most of their opportunities. Their 4-game winning streak was overstated due to the lack of quality that they faced. For them to win this game, they will need to overcome the demons of poor execution in recent weeks, with many players required to lift their individual effort. In terms of an investment, these two sides are too hard to split with the certainty around how the Sea Eagles will perform without a few players. For a head to head selection, their recent form speaks volumes and the Sea Eagles are the ideal selection, yet investing in this game should be around a close match. Aside from the 30-point victory last year to the Panthers at this ground in Round 26, they share a healthy rivalry. Of their past 5 meetings, two have been decided by a FG, with another by 7 points. With that in mind, expect this game to be decided by less than a converted try.
Suggested Bet
Either Team Under 6.5 Points @ $2.70
Melbourne Storm (1st) v Parramatta Eels (8th)
The Storm flexed their muscle last week against the Broncos, keeping their strong record against them at Suncorp Stadium in tact following a 42-12 win. It was a commanding win from the visitors, demonstrating the strength of the Storm this season. It was further support for the Storm as Premiership favorites, as they posted 3 tries within the first 15 minutes of the match. While there were areas of the game that could be improved (73% completion rate and 13 errors), the ability of the Storm to turn attacking opportunities into points was fantastic. It will be a different team there though, as the young reserves step up to fill the void left by their representative stars. That has proven beneficial in the past (Rd 15 win v Cowboys 23-22), as the new generation come out to establish a name for themselves. The Eels have every right to complain about the scheduling of this match, this is the third time they have feature during the Origin break; thankfully for them, they have no players away on representative duty and will be out to make the most of the quality missing from their opponents team. They have had extra time to prepare for this game, following their 13-12 win over the Bulldogs last Thursday. After jumping to a 12-2 lead inside the first half, many were expecting a comfortable victory to the home team. Unfortunately, this was not the case, as the Eels continually made mistakes on both sides of the ball, ultimately forcing the game to Golden Point where they were victorious. A lack of possession in the second half was a starting point, yet several errors in attack and defence renewed the Bulldogs confidence. This demonstrated their inexperience to some extent, although there were also positives as they completed at 86%, made 7 errors (just at crucial times) and missed only 26 tackles. The win means they have won 4 out of their past 5 matches and widened the gap (4-points) between themselves and the Panthers, who are in 9th position.
Team News
Storm = Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Munster, Will Chambers, Tim Glasby and Cameron Smith (all Origin) are out of this contest. Jahrome Hughes is named at fullback, with Cheyse Blair (injury) returning in the centres. Ryley Jacks and Brodie Croft are named in the halves, while Slade Griffin is named at hooker and Nelson Asofa-Solomona starts at prop. Nate Myles (club debut) has been included on the bench.
Eels = Tepai Moeroa comes into the starting side for Kenny Edwards, who moves back to the bench.
History
Overall = Storm 19 Eels 12
Last 5 matches = Storm 4 Eels 1
At AAMI Park = Storm 74% Eels 25%
Form = Storm 1 win – Eels 2 wins
Verdict
It is somewhat surprising that the Storm head into this game as outsiders; the Eels were not convincing by any means last week, while the incoming players for the Storm have proven themselves in the absence of their stars. Obviously, missing those players has a large impact on the market, as does the Eels keeping the same team. The visitors may have a difficult time winning in Melbourne; they have just 1 win from 4 attempts at this ground, with that coming in Round 14, 2015 when the Storm were also missing their Origin stars. The form of the Eels in recent weeks has been pleasing, yet this is more difficult than many are suggesting. The difference for the Storm in their last few matches without their representative is that Cameron Munster is also missing, he wasn’t in the past and offered stability in the halves, as well as direction and much-needed experience. That increases the doubt surrounding the Storm and their ability to win this match; nevertheless, they will be a chance after the poor ability of the Eels to close out last weeks match. Eventually they got there, although simple errors let their opponents back into the match. A team like the Storm, even missing players, will make their opponents pay for their mistakes. The Eels need to demonstrate more than they have previously and despite sitting on the edge of the Top 8, there is a difference in class. This next wave of players for the Storm appear more than capable of matching it with their opponents for 80 minutes and cause an upset. Rather than go down that path, taking the Storm with in the line market appears more favorable, as does selecting them to cause an upset, as opposed to taking the Eels at such a short price.
Suggested Bet
Storm +4.5 @ $1.90
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (13th) v Newcastle Knights (16th)
The Bulldogs season just about ended last week with a disappointing 13-12 loss to the Eels. Things were looking worrying inside the first half, as they found themselves behind 12-2. Again, it was the Bulldogs attack that struggled; completing at 83% and having a 53% share of possession (even more in the second half), a team would be expected to use this to their advantage. They were unable to capitalise on this and despite a fight back in the second half to send the game into Golden Point; the Bulldogs have plenty of issues to solve, most importantly the fact that they average just 13.8 points per game, the least amount of any team in the competition. The team just ahead of them is the Knights, with 16.7 PPG, and it is fitting that both face one another here. The Knights also carry losing form into this game, going down to the Tigers last week at home in a battle for the “wooden spoon”. The loss meant they dropped behind their opponents on the ladder and now need to win a few matches to avoid the dreaded tag. It was a game that they headed into as favorites on the back of a spirited 32-28 loss to the Dragons the previous week. Unfortunately, the Knights were their own worst enemy, completing at just 66% with 46% share of possession and committing 12 errors for the match. The inexperience within this team was on show, as they were kept scoreless until the 61st minute; at times they needed a player to take control of the match, put a good finish to an attacking set and build pressure on the Tigers. Despite the missed opportunity, the Knights will sense an opportunity given their opponents poor form this season. The difference between the two teams aside from the competition standings is that the Knights are playing above the talent level in most matches, whereas the Bulldogs are far below their potential.
Team News
Bulldogs = Brett Morris, Josh Jackson and David Klemmer (all Origin) are unavailable for this match. Kerrod Holland is named on the wing, Raymond Faitala-Mariner in the second row and Sam Kasiano at lock to cover them. Asipeli Fine and Andy Saunders are named on the bench.
Knights = Chanel Mata’utia is named on the wing, allowing Joe Wardle to cover for Dane Gagai (Origin), while on the other side, Brendan Elliot comes in for Ken Sio (injured). Luke Yates (injury) is named on the bench for Josh Starling.
History
Overall = Bulldogs 16 Draw 1 Knights 16
Last 5 matches = Bulldogs 4 Knights 1
At Belmore Sports Ground = Bulldogs 47% Knights 0%
Form = Bulldogs 2 losses – Knights 5 losses
Verdict
The Bulldogs are aiming to avoid a complete embarrassment with a loss to the Knights here and will have their 22-12 win back in Round 6 as a confidence builder. That being said, the victory was somewhat unconvincing as they had 55% possession in a very dour affair. Now, the pressure is on the Bulldogs in more ways than one and a loss would be the first win for the Knights over their opponents since 2013. The execution and effort of the Knights last week was disappointing and their execution didn’t match a team that was heading into a game as favorites. They will have a greater level of effort than their opponents, with many of the Bulldogs players needing to lift their involvement in a match to contribute to a victory. The Bulldogs still possess a quality team and that is why they are strong favorites to win this game. Nevertheless, the Knights will be out to bounce back following a poor showing and will sense an opportunity to cause an upset on the back of their opponents poor recent form. The issue for the Bulldogs is scoring points and as mentioned above, they will need to score more than 14 in order to increase their last placed average in the league. This is possible, yet more needs to be demonstrated from them before you can invest on them with confidence. In reality, this is a fixture that is worth staying away from given the poor quality demonstrated by either team so far this season. For the sake of selecting a winner, the Bulldogs should win based on their quality, yet you need to look elsewhere if you want to have an investment on this match. Three of the past 6 matches between these two teams has been decided by 6 points or less; with the Bulldogs experiencing issues with their attack, adding extra points to the Knights in a shifting market appears to be the ideal selection if you cannot resist the temptation to stay away from this match.
Suggested Bet
Knights +7.5 @ $2
Good luck!
Scooby
