Round 16 has been and gone and Round 17 will be a pleasing one for rugby league fans as we return to a full round of fixtures. Before we can get too excited though, it will leave us again next week as SOO Game 3 approaches us quickly. There is a lot of water to pass underneath the bridge leading up to that point and no doubt fans of both sides are eagerly awaiting KO to the deciding game. Towards the end of this round, we will have a clearer idea of the teams that are picked and it will lead into a week-and-a-half of hype-building activity. Before we can get to that stage though, we have to deal with the games that the NRL has thrown up for us this week.

Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

Action will kick off this week down in Melbourne as the Storm host a nose-diving Broncos team. It was a fantastic game of rugby league last time these two teams met and in that case, it was the Storm that were able to fight back and outlast the Broncos 32-26. It will be a different game of football on this occasion as they move away from the cauldron atmosphere of Suncorp Stadium to AAMI Park where majority of the focus will be on another football code. All is not well for the Storm at the moment, as the Tigers comprehensively beat them last week. They were missing Cameron Smith following Origin but you would’ve thought that they could turn out a better performance than what they did. Perhaps the post-Origin slump for the Storm is coming a little earlier than we thought. If it were, they would see this game as the opportunity to get themselves back on track. The Broncos aren’t exactly a team that is going to worry them but they are proving difficult for most sides to get past. They have a very talented team and it is surprising to see very few questions asked about why they are doing so poorly. It is as if coach Anthony Griffin is a protected species at this stage but sooner or later he is going to have to be held accountable for their performances. They have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and while they almost beat the in-form Warriors in New Zealand last week, it will do little to help get their season moving in the right direction. Time is running out very quickly to rescue their season but a win here over the Storm could help a lot. The Storm are right for the picking, but a question remains as to whether this Broncos team is capable of rising to the task. We will be able to answer that question after 80-minutes of football but lets take a closer look at this game to see if we can get the weekend off to the right start.

Melbourne Storm

It was a very “un-Storm”-like performance last week as they were comprehensively beaten. It was frustrating at times for the players and you could see it in their expressions as things began to unfold and slip from their control. It will be a difficult game for their players to back up from as well, especially considering the conditions the game were played in. This week, we should see Cameron Smith take the field after he was a withdrawal following SOO. In that case, Ryan Hinchcliffe filled his role at hooker and he will now move back to lock. It was a big dent to their chances and a team will always struggle when a player from the same caliber of Smith, withdrawals from the side. Coach Craig Bellamy has chosen to name a relatively unchanged lineup and the only changes (apart from Smith at hooker) will occur on the bench. Jason Ryles is out of this game and Jordan McLean takes his place on the bench. Mitch Garbutt is also out of this game and his place on the bench is taken by Siosia Vave. Bellamy has also chosen to name a few extra players on the bench but they will probably miss out if the starting 17 are fit and ready to go. In that case, Junior Moors (18^th), Tim Glasby (19^th) and rookie Ben Hampton (20^th) will watch this game from the sideline.

Brisbane Broncos

The Broncos had their backs to the wall against the Warriors and were pretty unlucky to let it slip from their grasp. Had the intercept not have been taken by Konrad Hurrell, the Broncos would’ve left Auckland with two points. It will also be very tough for the Broncos to travel back from NZ and then have to head down to Melbourne in a short period of time. However with the pressure building on their team, their representative players can ill-afford the chance to rest their weary bodies. This week, there have been only a few minor changes to the Broncos. Ben Hannant is out of this game and the fiery Josh McGuire has taken his place in the starting side. McGuire’s place on the bench is now taken by Dunamis Lui and he will relish the opportunity to take the field after a few starts as 19^th man. Jarrod Wallace remains as 18^th man and despite still travelling with the team, he will probably miss out on selection.

Recent History

Overall = Storm 21 Draw 1 Broncos 11

Last 5 games = Storm 5 Broncos 0

At AAMI Stadium = Storm 2 Broncos 1

Stats that matter

• It is extremely frustration, but the Broncos still maintain the best completion rate in the league with an average of 78.5%. The problem for them is converting this into points and they only average 19.1 points per match (=8^th).
• While they are being well disciplined with their possession, the Broncos are letting themselves down in defence. They allow an average of 28.9 missed tackles per game (14^th) and could take something away from the Storms effort this year. They average 24.7 missed tackles per game (5^th) and this is a big reason why they only allow an average of 15.2 points (4^th).
• The Broncos have a star-studded pack of forwards but they are not putting up their hand to take control of the game. They average 8.57m per carry (14^th) and need to be stronger carrying the ball off their line, to put their team in an attacking position at the end of their sets. For what it is worth, the Storm have a no-frills pack of forwards but they seem to get the best out of them every week and they average 9.06m per carry (5^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.28 Broncos $3.75
Centrebet = Storm $1.30 Broncos $3.65
Sportsbet = Storm $1.30 Broncos $3.65
Betfair = Storm $1.31 Broncos $3.90

Verdict

The Storm have had the wood over the Broncos in recent clashes and I believe that it is set to continue. Forget the performance that we saw from them last week, it was one that can happen throughout the season and I dare say it was more of an attitude issue rather than a performance one. Cameron Smith returning to their lineup will only strengthen their chances. Do not discount the Broncos though; they will be competitive, as is any team that faces the Storm. Fatigue may be an issue for them and they will have to rise above that if they want to be a chance of winning this match. As for a margin, it will be close and these two teams always put on a great show.

Suggested Bet
Broncos +10.5 @ $1.85

Stormy night = Storm 1-12 @ $2.90 – Of course, the 13+ margin ($2.20) is favorite but the Broncos prove themselves competitive when they play the Storm. In the past 5 games, the average margin of victory is 11.6 and I expect pretty much the same here.

Blairing performance = Maurice Blair FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – I tipped him last week to get over the line and he delivered. If you weren’t on him, now is the chance to hop on as he is in a rich vein of form at the moment. He has now scored the first try for the storm in 4 of the past 6 matches but only 2 of those have been the first in the game.

Cronulla Sharks v Wests Tigers

The second Friday night game this week will not exactly be a head turner and will probably have minimal interest in it. Regardless, fans of the Sharks will be hoping that their side can bounce back from a loss to the Cowboys last Sunday night against a Tigers team that is slowly recapturing their confidence. It was a great performance to see the Tigers outlast and outplay the Storm last week and full credit must go to them. They are still struggling with a horrific injury toll but the players that are out there are beginning to show some promise. As it has done for a number of years now, the success of this team rests firmly on the shoulders of Benji Marshall and Robbie Farrah. They control how this team works and what moves they make out on the field. This does also require a contribution form their forwards and it has been that which has been missing when they have lost. The Sharks would be hoping to capitalise in this facet of the game, as it is their forwards where they possess a lot of their strength. However in every step onward that they make with their forwards, their outside backs can sometimes take them back as well. At times, this has been extremely frustrating for Sharks fans and it has kept them from winning the close contests. Last week, it was their defence on the edges that caused them a lot of trouble. Teams are wary of this now and know where to attack them and where they leak points. It will be an area that they will want to fix as soon as possible and strengthen their chances of becoming a contender for the title. It would’ve been interesting to see just how well the Sharks would’ve gone this season had they not had the tumultuous start to the season that they have endured. However they cannot change their current plight and the only thing that will help at this stage is winning matches on a consistent basis. This match isn’t the “feature” game but it may just surprise a few people and make for good viewing. If you can last through it, enjoy it for what it is worth. If not, try investing some money on it and no doubt (as it generally does) that will increase your interest in it.

Cronulla Sharks

The Sharks would’ve been disappointed with their execution in their last game against the Cowboys but will also learn from the mistakes they made. It was hard for them to build any momentum at stages and their defence on the edges was vulnerable to a sweeping attack. This week, Ben Pomeroy has finally been dropped for his recent efforts (you can hear the collective cheer from Sharks fans) and Flanagan has chosen to move Luke Lewis to the centres to cover for him. This has freed up a spot in the back row and Anthony Tupou will start there to cover for Lewis; and taking his spot on the bench is Bryce Gibbs. Chris Heighington is named to start at lock but this isn’t anything new, as it was known running into last game that Paul Gallen would be out. Due to Heighington’s promotion, Ben Ross is also fortunate enough to get a start. Stewart Mills has been named as the 18^th man but it is likely that he will miss out on selection. He has obviously been named to cover for fullback Michael Gordon, who was a late withdrawal from the Cowboys game.

Wests Tigers

The Tigers are beginning to grow in confidence each week and why wouldn’t they with the effort we saw from there last week. As I alluded to last week though, their performances are still ugly but that will matter little to them if they continue to grab the two points. This week, Bodene Thompson is recalled to the side from the bench and will take Joel Reddy’s spot in the second row. As a spot has been freed up, Ben Murdoch-Masila again gets a chance to prove himself worthy of a place in the starting 17. He has not lived up to the potential that he has shown just yet but playing in a winning side should give him the confidence that he needs. Their backline has obviously been strengthened by the return of their centres and they are taking the pressure off the two rookie wingers. The only thing that could derail their current success is the future of Benji Marshall. He is yet to decide on what he will do but a decision is expected soon. It is no surprise that we see his football level improve at the same time contract negotiations are taking place.

Recent History

Overall = Sharks 6 Draw 1 Tigers 15

Last 5 games = Sharks 1 Tigers 4

At Shark Park = Sharks 2 Draw 1 Tigers 7

Stats that matter

• Everyone is aware of the plight of the Tigers and it is no surprise that they commit an average of 11.4 errors per game (=12^th). What is more unexpected though, is the fact that the Sharks are the worst in the competition when it comes to this statistic an commit an average of 12.5 per game.
• What was once an exciting an unpredictable football team is now struggling for attacking creativity. They capture a little of that last week but they still only average 14.4 points per match (16^th). This is leaning towards being a low scoring contest though as the Sharks only manage to score an average of 16.6 points per match (13^th).
• What has been a strength for the Sharks this season has been their forwards. They have one of the best forward packs in the league and average 9.16m per carry of the ball (1^st). The Tigers may just lose the match in this area and need their forwards to stand up and improve on the 8.50m per carry that they currently average (15^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Sharks $1.55 Tigers $2.50
Centrebet = Sharks $1.53 Tigers $2.55
Sportsbet = Sharks $1.50 Tigers $2.65
Betfair = Sharks $1.51 Tigers $2.68

Verdict

This game is going to be a very tricky one to get past. For starters, the Tigers recent run of form is only going to give them the confidence to continue on their winning ways. The Sharks must move past that and take the right attitude into this match. They also need to keep this battle in the forwards and play the same style of football that has yielded them wins this season. They are more than capable of winning this game and they should be able to put the Tigers away. It will be a close contest though and the Tigers will probably keep themselves in the match up until HT at least. They have an uncanny knack of dragging teams down to their level and beating them there. The home crowd support should lift the boys from the Shire and they should prevail in the end.

Suggested Bet
Sharks 1-12 @ $3

Luke’s luck = Luke Lewis FTS and/or LTS @ $13 – Lewis has been moved out to the centres and you can expect him to get more possession in attacking positions. It will also give him the ability to take on his opponent with a little more room to move and he is always hard to stop, no matter where you are on the field. I’m a little surprised how high the odds are for him so make the most of them.

Half a Double = Draw/Sharks (HT/FT Double) @ $15 – As stated above, the Tigers will be competitive in the early stages of this contest. This may lead to a draw at halftime, with the Sharks prevailing at the end of it all. There is plenty of value available in this but bet wisely around it.

St George-Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters

Saturday night football begins at 5:30pm this week with a game between two Sydney based rivals, the Dragons and the Roosters. Normally we are familiar with viewing the game on ANZAC Day but this time, there will not be as much fanfare around this contest. A lot of that also has to do with the current predicament the Dragons find themselves in but that is of their own doing. At this stage, they sit in in 15^th spot on the table on 12 points but will take some hope from the fact that they’re only 4 points out of the Top 8. The light is fading fast though on their season and what little hope there is, must surface with a strong performance here. They do not look as though they will trouble many of the top teams in this competition but will have a chance to take down the side that is sitting pretty in 2^nd spot on the table. The time may be right for the Dragons as well as the Roosters will have a short turn around following a tough MNF contest against the Sea Eagles. In a game that promised a lot, it was the physical game that we thought it would be but it failed to live up to the hype. The scoreboard probably didn’t do the Roosters performance any justice and the 18-12 score could’ve easily been 26-12, had they’ve featured a notable goal kicker. That performance was also pleasing considering they were missing their 5/8 James Maloney. They have a tough and physical pack of forwards that will be a handful for any side to beat. If there were anything to de-rail their season, it would be the contract drama involving SBW and his future at the club. They need to find a way to put it all to bed but that task is very difficult with the performances that he is exhibiting each week. He is only one player in the big scheme of things and there are 12 others out there on the field that have to do their job. These problems seem a world away for the Dragons and they would no doubt give anything to be in the same situation as the Roosters. It will be intriguing to see what attitude the Dragons carry into this contest and whether or not they can lift to the same level as the Roosters.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

The Dragons came close at several points in their loss to the Panthers but again, they were unable to capitalise in scoring positions. Still, coach Steve Price has chosen to maintain the same halves who have failed to get the job done in recent matches. It seems I am raising the same points in regards to Nathan Fien and nothing changes following last week but now there is pressure building on Chase Stanley. If they do not begin to find a winning formula, it could be an ugly finish to the season for them. This week, they will be without fullback Josh Dugan who has taken the early guilty plea for his shoulder charge on Matt Moylan. Adam Quinlan has been named to take his place there and he has his work cut out for him trying to replace the flair that Dugan offers. In the centres, Matt Prior has been relegated back to the bench and the new face in his first season with the top grade is Charly Runciman. In the forwards, Dan Hunt is out with a knee injury and there is no indication of when he will return to the side. His place in the starting side has been taken by Jack de Belin and this is an interesting move by Price, as he chose not to go with Weyman. Price has also chose to name two extra players incase of a late withdrawal, but we will probably see Will Matthews (18^th) and Atelea Vea (19^th) man miss out on selection if all players are passed fit.

Sydney Roosters

The Roosters have chosen to name the same side that was listed to take the field against the Sea Eagles, but that is no surprise given they are backing up from MNF. In that game, we saw James Maloney ruled out prior to kick off and there was a lot of confusion over who would play 5/8. It was SBW who filled that role amicably and if he is out again, Robinson will have no hesitation in moving him there. Also coming out of MNF, we saw two sickening concussions involve Daniel Mortimer and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. There is a duty of care that will come into play but after hearing Robinson in a post-match interview, those players are in the right hands and the correct decision will be made on their fitness. If they are ruled out, it will be a minor blow to their chances of winning this game in the big scheme of things. Jake Friend has been fantastic for majority of this season and Mortimer was only coming onto the field and giving him a rest. Mortimer was able to change the intensity of the game but Friend is very strong in the middle of the field with his defence.

Recent History

Overall = Dragons 17 Draw 1 Roosters 11

Last 5 games = Dragons 2 Roosters 3

At WIN Jubilee Oval = Dragons 1 Roosters 0

Stats that matter

• The Dragons are still lacking creativity in their attack and it is no surprise to see them ranked 15^th for line breaks with just 3.2 per game. They will have take a step back and watch the Roosters as they are the best in the competition, creating an average of 5.5 per match.
• Relating to the point above, the Dragons are also struggling to score points. So far this season, they average just 14.5 points per game (15^th) and will find it very hard to out score the Roosters who average 22.8 (2^nd) per game.
• Defence has been a priority for the Roosters all season and they are reaping the rewards of hiring a former defensive coach as their head coach. They will be able to hold the Dragons here and they average just 13.1 points conceded per match (1^st). As for the Dragons, they allow 19.8 points on defence and they have another tough task ahead of them.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Dragons $4.25 Roosters $1.23
Centrebet = Dragons $4.50 Roosters $1.22
Sportsbet = Dragons $4.50 Roosters $1.22
Betfair = Dragons $4.30 Roosters $1.26

Verdict

It is very difficult to see the Dragons winning this game, but stranger things have happened in the rugby league world. Still, a lot would have to happen for them to win this one. They have not exhibited enough in the forwards to suggest they will have the strength to continually break the Roosters defensive line. They also have an average set of halves (at best) that will struggle to post points in attack. They are going to have to pull a rabbit out of the hat and this is exactly why I believe the Roosters will handle the Dragons easily. Expect them to be in the game initially, but it will be the Roosters that handle this game comfortably. Their forwards are one of the strongest in the competition and they are complimented by a set of halves that can create attacking opportunities in decent field position. People will be ready to shoot down that comment (due to Mitchell Pearce) but they are not sitting 2^nd on the table for no reason at all.

Suggested Bet
Roosters -10.5 @ $1.90

Right for the Roost = Roosters 13+ @ $2.10 – It is all stated above, the Dragons leak too many points and the rock-solid Roosters defence is proving that they can hold some of the best attacking teams in the competition. The Dragons will also struggle to score points with their lack of creativity in attack.

First try delight = Roosters Try (first scoring play) @ $1.65 – It isn’t offering a whole lot of value but there is pattern emerging from their performances and it could be a solid choice to throw into a multi-bet. In their last 10 games, the Roosters have scored the first try in 7 of those matches and each time they have done that, they’ve gone onto win the match.

Gold Coast Titans v Penrith Panthers

The 7:30pm game may be overshadowed by a game that happens once every 12 years, but the NRL show will continue to roll on. In one of three travelling games this week, the Titans have chosen to move their home game from the Gold Coast and across to steamy Darwin. Here, they will host the Panthers and look to bounce back from what was a very disappointing display against the Knights last week. They did have a few injuries to contend with throughout the match but going by what we have seen from them this season, everyone expected a better showing. The Knights were very good in that game though and the Titans will want to erase any memory of their efforts and remind people just what they are capable of. They will have to be on their toes in this game, otherwise the Panthers could shock them with their enthusiasm and effort. Their season is travelling far better than anyone expected and they are proving a difficult opponent to get past. Last week, they made it two from two against the Dragons this season and they were able to wrestle the match away from their opponents. Each of these games is building a very strong foundation that will serve them well in years to come and coach Ivan Cleary clearly has a plan that he wants to execute in coming seasons. Plenty of sides have commented following a game against the Panthers, that they are a very physical side and they hit very hard in their tackles. That is sure to worry the Titans somewhat, but they too are capable of matching the Panthers physicality. They have a far superior pack of forwards and this will be the area where the game is won and lost. So if your attention is elsewhere, that is understandable but record this game and watch it afterwards because it promises to be a stirring game of rugby league.

Gold Coast Titans

Not much went right for the Titans last week and it was only compounded with the injuries they have suffered. Fullback William Zillman has suffered a groin injury and he has been ruled out until Round 19. Jahrome Hughes has been called into the side to take his place and he will have some very big shoes to fill with the role Zillman has played with the Titans. Jamal Indris was another Titans back who suffered an injury, but it is far worse for him and Hymel Hunt takes his place. In a sickening piece of footage, his foot was trapped underneath him and despite walking off the field, scans have revealed that he has suffered a broken leg (along with a dislocated ankle) and will be out until at least Round 25. Luke O’Dwyer has been moved to the centres as well in a position switch that has moved Anthony Don to 19^th man and David Mead back to the wing. In the forwards, they will welcome back Nate Myles to the front row after he was given a little more time to recover following SOO last Wednesday. This has forced Luke Douglas back to the bench, as there is no starting spot available. Greg Bird was also expected to be given a game to rest but he was able to take the field. This was a move that surprisingly forced Dave Taylor out of the team and Sam Irwin was given a start in the side. Ben Ridge has been named as 18^th man but like Don, he will probably miss out on selection.

Penrith Panthers

There are minimal changes for the Panthers this week following their victory over the Dragons with one being a changing of numbers. Cameron Ciraldo (15) and Mose Masoe (16) have swapped numbers this week and the other change is the return of Ryan Simpkins to lock at the expense of hit man Adam Docker. The Panthers have developed a style of football that requires their forwards taking control of the game early. Their halves are then able to control the pace of the game and they attempt to get the ball to their outside backs with enough room to move. They are talented and have speed to burn but that will matter little unless they are using the possession in quality field position.

Recent History

Overall = Titans 4 Panthers 4

Last 5 games = Titans 3 Panthers 2

At TIO Stadium = Never played at the venue

Stats that matter

• The Panthers are playing a more disciplined brand of football at the moment at it is really helping them moving forward. This can be put down to two things; they are ranked 2^nd in the league for completion rate with 75.9% and they are ranked 3^rd for errors made per game with 10.
• The Titans forward pack has a lot of quality players and they are strong when they carry the ball forward. Currently, they average 9.06m per carry (4^th) and the Panthers will have to be on guard if they want to stop this pack rolling forward.
• One area where the Panthers need to improve is the amount of missed tackles they make each week. They are currently ranked 16^th in the league with an average of 29.8 per game and must improve to limit their opponents scoring opportunities. For what it is worth, the Titans are ranked 8^th with an average of 26.5 per match.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Titans $1.80 Panthers $2.05
Centrebet = Titans $1.80 Panthers $2.05
Sportsbet = Titans $1.80 Panthers $2.05
Betfair = Titans $1.87 Panthers $2.12

Verdict

There are many contributing factors to this game that have to be considered before we select a winner. Firstly, the Titans may find it difficult to back up from their game on Sunday against the Knights. It is a very quick turn around here and furthermore; they will have to travel back to the Gold Coast and then onto Darwin before taking the field. The Panthers are capable of producing a solid performance on their day but may find it difficult with the change in conditions up in Darwin. That’s not to say that the Titans will be acclimatised, but it should be easier for them to make the transition here. The Titans also have a few injuries that they will have to contend with and they are relying on a few players stepping up to the mark in order to get the win. Their standing on the table suggests that they are going to get the win, but I am not so sure. I believe that the Panthers can go up and steal this game away from the Titans in a very close contest.

Suggested Bet
Panthers @ $2.12

Marginal victory = Panthers 1-12 @ $3.25 – The Panthers are the outsiders in this game so it is no surprise to see the odds offered for them being pretty enticing. What would be surprising would be the Panthers winning by 13+, so strongly consider this option.

Tri something new = Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.65 (tri bet) – If you cannot make your mind up and you want to just see a good, close contest, then maybe think of this bet. It will be a close game and this way, you can sit on the fence and just enjoy the game.

Canberra Raiders v North Queensland Cowboys

Super Sunday action kicks off down in the nations capital as two very similar teams face off in, what is sure to be, very cold conditions. These two sides have been very frustrating to say the least this season and it has been their form on the road that has caused the biggest issue. They seem to be a different football side when they are at home and this week it would seem as though the Raiders have the added advantage of hosting the Cowboys. They will relish the opportunity to return home after two tough weeks on the road, which concluded with a tryless performance against the Rabbitohs. Everyone was expecting the Rabbitohs to take out the victory but I don’t think many people would’ve said that they would do it as easy as they did. It is beyond a problem now for the Raiders and they must rectify this problem quickly. Perhaps it’s an attitude problem and maybe the two coaches can discuss a collective solution to their travelling problems. Cowboys coach Neil Henry will be the first to admit that this season hasn’t exactly gone according to plan and they are finding it very difficult to put together consecutive and complete performances. Like the Raiders, they have a very strong side on paper but are unable to transfer that potential to the field consistently. They were strong last week, albeit at home against the Sharks. They stuck to their structure and it allowed them to pull apart the weaknesses of the Sharks in scoring positions. It all changes for them now as they hop on that plane and head down to Canberra. They will certainly not like the conditions that are waiting for them here but if they want to bring themselves back into contention at the business end of the season, they need to win this game. This game promises to be an interesting contest and despite all of their similarities, only one side will be able to walk away as a winner.

Canberra Raiders

Another loss on the road last week for the Raiders and this time they were unable to cross the line for a try. They looked out of their depth and their coach David Furner must be pulling his hair out with a few of their decisions throughout the match. This week, he has chosen to name Joel Thompson in the centres at the expense of Jack Wighton, who moves back to the wing. This was a move forced upon Furner following the sickening injury to Sandor Earl (elbow) that will probably end his playing career at the Raiders. Thompson moves from the second row to the edge of the field and the new face to partner Josh Papalii is Joel Edwards, who wins a promotion from the bench. Jarrad Kennedy has been elevated from 18^th man to the bench and will be looking to make the most of this opportunity. Furner has chosen to name an extended bench this week and we see Shaun Berrigan (18^th), Jake Foster (19^th) and Dimitri Pelo (20^th) have been named, but you would think that they would miss out on selection if all of the Raiders players were passed fit.

North Queensland Cowboys

We finally saw the Cowboys play like their talent on paper suggests, although they still have some ground to make up before they are back on track. It was a great return to form last week for James Tamou and he was a major contributor in the Cowboys quest for two points. This week, coach Neil Henry has chosen to only change his side on the bench. Ashton Sims is out and Ricky Thorby, who was 18th man last week, has replaced him. Henry has still named an 18^th man this week and Jason Taumalolo will be hoping that Henry has a change of approach to this game and chooses to select him. It seems that they are also going to settle on Ray Thompson at hooker for the time being and he is proving capable of doing the job that is required of him. We have witnessed first hand, just how important it is to have a hooker that controls the speed of the game. They lost a lot when Aaron Payne retired last year and are yet to have the same potency without him. It will intriguing to see if Thompson can maintain this and he is also supported by Rory Kostjasyn, who comes into the game off the bench.

Recent History

Overall = Raiders 18 Cowboys 13

Last 5 games = Raiders 0 Cowboys 5

At Canberra Stadium = Raiders 11 Cowboys 4

Stats that matter

• Do not expect a high quality contest going by the average amount of errors each team each commits. The Raiders commit 11.7 (14^th) errors per game and they are just slightly ahead of the Cowboys who commit an average of 12 per game (15^th).
• Both sides need to improve their production among their forwards and increase the amount of metres they make per carry. For the Raiders, their monster pack is ranked in 10^th spot with 8.84m but it is the Cowboys who are failing to live up to their hype. They are ranked in 13^th spot and make a little less than the Raiders with just 8.67m per carr.
• This game is going to be a close one and the amount of points each team averages in both attack and defence. The home side average 18.3 points in attack (11^th) and 22.7 points in defence (13^th), while the Cowboys average 17.7 points in attack (12^th) and are a little tighter in defence with 18.7 (8^th).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Raiders $1.57 Cowboys $2.45
Centrebet = Raiders $1.58 Cowboys $2.45
Sportsbet = Raiders $1.55 Cowboys $2.50
Betfair = Raiders $1.57 Cowboys $2.44

Verdict

The Cowboys had a win last week and you would expect them to carry on the same way if they were playing at home. Fact is, they’re not and it is the Raiders that will have the benefit of their home turf. This is especially important considering how much it means to both sides to play at home. Going on the form of both sides this season, the Raiders should win but it is hard to pick them on their recent efforts. I would advise staying away from this game as it could go either way. If you must have a bet, then take a look at the options that I have listed below but then again, you could also save your money and invest elsewhere.

Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points (Tri Bet) @ $2.80

AND/OR

Total points over 43.5 @ $1.90

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights

The 3pm “match of the day” is an exciting rematch between two sides that are pushing hard to pull together consistent performances. This is the third game this weekend that has been moved to another venue and these two sides will take a trip up to Mackay in Queensland. You can all remember what happened last time the Bulldogs took a game up there and if you cannot, click here. It was only a few weeks ago that they two sides met in the same timeslot, albeit at the Knights home ground of Hunter Stadium. On that occasion, the Knights comprehensively beat the Bulldogs. Fittingly, it was in front of their home crowd and like several teams this season, they’ve been unable to transfer their home form to the road. The Bulldogs learned a lot from that loss and no doubt will be a better side for the experience, but it did unearth a few flaws within their performance. They need their forwards to control the game and put them in a winning position. They are at their worst when this doesn’t occur and their outside backs have minimal room to move with the ball. It is a problem that Knights coach Wayne Bennett wouldn’t mind having because the Bulldogs arguably have the biggest forward pack in the competition. For him, it is motivating his side each week to play to the exciting level that we have seen glimpses of. By his own admission, he is never sure which Newcastle team is going to step off the bus and take the field. That is what we have come to expect from them and it is never a good situation to be in when you are investing your money on a game that they are featuring in. Regardless, lets take a closer look at this contest and see if we can unearth a winner or two and make the start to the working week a little easier to deal with.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Having a week off would’ve suited the Bulldogs just right and more importantly; their big forward pack had a chance to regroup following a disappointing outing against the Roosters. They are a crucial part of the game plan that the Bulldogs implement and if they lose, you can generally trace it back to how their forwards have performed. This week, Des Hasler has chosen to start James Graham at prop after starting him off the bench for majority of his time at the Bulldogs. This means that Sam Kasiano has been moved back to the bench and will have the opportunity to impact upon this contest once the initial heat of the game has settled. That is the only change that will occur but Martin Taupau has been named as 18^th man but will probably miss selection if everyone is fit. Last match, we also saw Tony Williams start on the bench but he has been named to start the game in jersey 12 and Josh Jackson will wear 15. Whether or not this changes in the lead up to KO will be another thing.

Newcastle Knights

It is amazing what a few weeks in the winners circle can do for you but again, everyone is being very wary of the Knights. It was a great performance from them last week and that has left Wayne Bennett with no need to make any changes to his side. It is interesting to note that Korbin Sims has been named as 18^th man and if this season is anything to go by, he may be a late inclusion to the team. The Knights cannot get too far ahead of themselves just yet either and if they want to win this match, they will have to match the Bulldogs forwards. Many questions are still being asked about the quality they have and there is some suggestion that this aging pack of forwards are out of their depth against the bigger sides. Players like Beau Scott, Jeremy Smith and Willie Mason will want to change this and they will benefit from having Danny Buderus (and later on Craig Gower) playing hooker.

Recent History

Overall = Bulldogs 19 Draw 1 Knights 18

Last 5 games = Bulldogs 2 Knights 3

At VAS Stadium (Mackay) = Never played at the venue

Stats that matter

• The Knights are improving each week and Bennett is instilling very disciplined football. Currently, their completion rate sits at 75% and they’re ranked 3^rd in the competition. The Bulldogs are not far behind them though; they average 73.4% and are ranked in 6^th.
• It should be a close game with both sides having solid statistics when it comes to missed tackles. The Bulldogs missed an average22.8 per game (2^nd) and are just ahead of the Knights who average 24.4 misses (4^th). This stat becomes more interesting when you consider the Bulldogs allow 21.1 (12^th) and is far more than the Knights who allow17.3 per game (5^th).
• Despite the questions being asked about them, the Knights forwards seem to be working hard when carrying the ball. They average 9.04m per carry and are ranked in 6^th spot in the competition. Interestingly, the Bulldogs are the worst team in the competition when it comes to this and average just 8.42m per carry.

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Bulldogs $1.48 Knights $2.70
Centrebet = Bulldogs $1.50 Knights $2.65
Sportsbet = Bulldogs $1.50 Knights $2.65
Betfair = Bulldogs $1.53 Knights $2.66

Verdict

The run of tough games to pick this weekend continues. Like the game kicking off earlier in the day, the first thing that comes to mind is one sides travelling record. The Knights have been abysmal on the road this season and even though the Bulldogs are travelling as well, they have proven to hold themselves quiet well on the road. Mackay will not be too much of a change for them either as they have played at this ground last season. It will be interesting to see how the Knights respond to this challenge but I am expecting them to be fairly difficult for the Bulldogs to get past. It is very surprising to see the Knights price as high as it is and this game should be close enough to go right down to the wire. In saying that, I am leaning towards the Bulldogs getting the money here and to invest money around their performance.

Suggested Bet
Bulldogs 1-12 @ $3

Bank on Benny = Ben Barba FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – Barba is a Mackay local and if you need any more motivation for selecting him, take a trip back to the start of the preview to see why. He will be out to prove a point in front of his home crowd and while he has gone through a whole set of different fortunes this season, he is slowly getting back to the level that we saw of him last year.

South Sydney Rabbitohs v New Zealand Warriors

Sunday football concludes this week with a very intriguing battle between the Rabbitohs and the Warriors over in Perth. It is hard enough for the Warriors to win on the road as it is and moving the game across to Perth could prove a very smart choice by the Rabbitohs organization. It will KO at 6:30pm EST so do not get caught out here with your betting. The Rabbitohs are sitting very pretty at the top of the table at the moment and they are proving very difficult to beat. They haven’t exactly had any major issues thrown their way in recent weeks but that can also be testament to how well they have played. Last week, it was a very dominating display that we saw from them against the Raiders and they were able to limit them to scoring just two points throughout the entire contest. They need their superstars present in their team but even with a few of them missing, others have stepped up to the mark. Be wary though, in the lead into Origin some of their representative may “switch off” and have their minds elsewhere. We saw this from them when they took on the Sharks in MNF after the two sides were named. Selection will not be an issue for the Warriors and thanks to their very strong performances in recent weeks; they have had minimal things to worry about. It is amazing the effect that winning can have on the perception and culture of a club. Heading into Round 11, the Warriors had won just 2 games and questions were being asked about the coaching credentials of Matthew Elliot. There is word around that the players approached him and asked to incorporate a different style into their play while still maintaining structure. That could be fiction but whatever has happened is a blessing for them. They have looked like a different team and people are beginning to suggest that they will feature in the Finals. If they’re aiming to get to that point and want to be noticed, they must beat the best the competition has to offer at this stage. This game promises to be an absolute cracker!

South Sydney Rabbitohs

The only change for the Rabbitohs this week is the inclusion of George Burgess in the 17. This has forced his brother Tom to 18^th man and the Rabbitohs coach Michael Maguire has chosen to also name Justin Hunt (19^th) and Dylan Farrell (20^th). Hunt was a late inclusion last week after Andrew Everingham was injured in the warm up but Everingham will be given every opportunity to take his place in the side. It is no surprise to see Maguire name an extended bench as they are travelling across to Perth. The Rabbitohs are doing the right things in both attack and defence this season and at the moment, they are setting a very high standard for the rest of the competition to meet. They have to be wary though, sides are aware of what they are capable of and they are going to be doing everything possible to limit their effectiveness. Not only that, teams are going to lift to another level when it comes to playing against them.

New Zealand Warriors

The Warriors have a further distance to travel compared to the Rabbitohs and it is certainly going to test their players. This week, Kevin Locke has been named to start at fullback following his late inclusion last week. This has forced Glen Fisiiahi back to the wing and Ngani Laumape back to 18^th man. Suaia Matagi (19^th) and Charlie Gubb (20^th) have also been included on the bench but they will probably miss out on selection. The challenge for the Warriors will be coping with the conditions in Perth, but they need to play with the same confidence that we have seen from them when they’ve won. A lot of this is based around structured unpredictability (if that makes sense) and the platform that their forwards create up front. There is no better test for their forwards this week than going against the Rabbitohs pack.

Recent History

Overall = Rabbitohs 8 Warriors 18

Last 5 games = Rabbitohs 2 Warriors 3

At NIB Stadium = Never played at the venue

Stats that matter

• The Warriors are slowly improving their play but they still have some way to travel. For the season they average 69.9% completion rate (15^th) and 11.4 errors per match (=12^th), but in their last 5 victories they have averaged 74.7% completion rate and committed an average of 10.2 errors.
• It is no secret that the Rabbitohs have a very strong pack of forwards and it is reflected in their metres made per carry. So far for the season, they have averaged 9.06m (3^rd) and the Warriors will have to work very hard to lift their current level of 8.69m (11^th).
• The writing could be on the wall for the Warriors due to the amount of points they score (19.6 – 7^th) an concede (24.9 – 14^th). This is especially alarming when you consider the Rabbitohs score 26.3 (1^st) and allow just 14.5 (3^rd).

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.26 Warriors $4.00
Centrebet = Rabbitohs  $1.30 Warriors $3.65
Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.30 Warriors $3.65
Betfair = Rabbitohs $1.32 Warriors $3.90

Verdict

It is a running theme for Sunday but the result of this game is going to rely upon whether or not the Warriors are able to perform on the road. At times this season they’ve been terrible away from Mt Smart Stadium, yet in the same instance they appear now to be a different team. I think that the Warriors would’ve been a chance had the match stayed in Sydney but the travel time that they will have to deal with to Perth could limit how effective they will be. They are in form though and may push the Rabbitohs more than most people think. Nonetheless the Rabbitohs are sitting at the top of the competition for a reason and majority of that is that they’ve played fantastic football based upon a dominant pack of forwards, smart work in the halves and pieces of individual brilliance from their stars. So can the Warriors overcome all of that to win here? I cannot say that they will with any confidence so for that reason I am sticking with the Bunnies in an exciting contest.

Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 13+ @ $2.10

Be specific on the margin = Rabbitohs 13-18 @ $4.50 – The Rabbitohs 13+ is my more favored selection but if you fancy making a little more money, then consider this option. Take a look at the “Stats that Matter” above and see that the Rabbitohs should be able to score point against the Warriors while limiting how many they score.

Beast of a bet = Manu Vatuvei FTT @ $4.50 – Take a second look, I am recommending Vatuvei to be the first player in Warriors colours to cross over the try line. He has been great so far this season and they love attacking down his side of the field. Expect him to be close again here.