State Of Origin Game 2 is now finished and whilst the talk will not stop in the lead up to the decider, 3 weeks of NRL action will have to pass before we can get to that point. It sure was an exciting contest and despite being overshadowed by a certain leadership contest, it still managed to grab the headlines when the players took the field. However without the performance of players at club level, the stage for Origin could not be set and fans of the game will be happy that the NRL is returning to a relatively full round of fixtures. No one enjoys the weekends where there are only 4 games of football and this week we return to 7 games, while two sides enjoy a week off with the bye. Friday night action this week will feature two sides that had to play through reduced weekend last week, minus a few players.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders
The Rabbitohs are playing at home and host the Raiders to kick off Round 16 and there will be a lot of attention on the performance of both sides in this game. The Raiders spend another week on the road and it has been their Achilles-heal for several years now as they have struggled to perform to the same standard that we have seen from them at home. Many people consider them to be a threat to any side come the Finals period due to the talent they possess within their side, but it may be a case that the Raiders might just miss out on the Finals altogether if they cannot play consistent football away from home. One of their strengths is their unpredictability but that was also their downfall with tipsters last week as they were beaten by the Tigers at Campbelltown Stadium. This loss was even more disappointing as they were close enough to full strength and the players out of their lineup could’ve done little to change the outcome. There were no such troubles for the Rabbitohs without their stars as they were able to put the Eels to the sword in their contest at ANZ Stadium. The game was played in appalling conditions but it was the Rabbitohs that were able to prevail on the back of some very smart football by their halves and hooker. Of course, credit must go to their forwards who were able to create extra room for them to move and were strong in the middle of the field. They are the competition leaders for a reason and on the back of that win; they were able to create a 3-point gap on the ladder as the Storm fell to the Titans in MNF. Everyone knows what they are going to bring to a game and they are now getting closer to the peak of their powers and sides are going to lift to another level in order to beat them. That is just something that they are going to have to get use to and it is almost expected, if you want to be considered as the best in the competition. The stage is set for the Raiders to step up and try to knock the Rabbitohs off but they are going to put in a remarkably different performance compared to what we have seen from them so far. Let’s see if they’re up to it or the Rabbitohs juggernaut will continue to gain momentum.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Having 4 players feature in SOO on Wednesday, the Rabbitohs were severely hampered last week when they took on the Eels. Not that it showed though, as the players stepping in to fill the void did a fantastic job. This week, we see all of their Origin players named and a lot of movements because of that. Greg Inglis (fullback) and Nathan Merritt (wing) are named to take their place in the backline; whie Justin Hunt and Dylan Farrell find their way back to the extended bench. In the forwards, Chris McQueens and Ben Te’o are back from their duties in the Queensland side and will partner one another in the second row. This has forced Nathan Peats and Ben Lowe back to the bench but this does not mean an automatic start in the game. The bench see’s 8 players named and Luke Keary (20) and Josh Starling (22) will be pushing hard for selection in this game after their recent performances. Obviously Maguire has named these players to cover for an injury to one of their Origin players, but all are expected to feature. It will just come down to what game plan Maguire chooses to implement and the players that will best suit his approach.
Canberra Raiders
The Raiders had two players named to feature in Origin but after the issues surrounding Blake Ferguson, only Josh Papalii will come back the side this week. His minutes were limited off the bench and he failed to make any real impact on the game when he was on the field, but he will be better for the experience that it offered him. His inclusion has forced Joel Edwards back to the bench, while Jarrad Kennedy is named as 18th man. Up front, Dave Shillington has returned to the starting side and still has a point to prove following his omission from the Queensland team. This has seen Brett White omitted (injury) and the new face on the bench to cover for Shillington is Sam Mataora. The Raiders still have that awkward question mark hanging over their head that suggests they cannot win on the road. So far it has been correct and giving majority of the games in the finals will involve travelling, it is an area that they will want to fix as soon as possible. The talent is there, the strength in the forwards is there and they are a young side that is afraid to chance their hand. This will all mean nothing if they cannot perform consistently.
Recent History
Overall = Rabbitohs 19 Raiders 27
Last 5 games = Rabbitohs 4 Raiders 1
At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 3 Raiders 3
Stats that matter
- Despite leading the competition, the Rabbitohs still commit a high amount of errors in their match. It is not what you would expect from the premiership leaders but so far, they average 10.9 errors per game (8th). The Raiders are far worse that this, they average 11.5 per game and are ranked in 13th spot.
- The Rabbitohs forwards are very difficult to handle. So far this season, they average 9.09m per carry (5th) and are strong when coming off their own line. It is even more dangerous when you have multiple ball runners moving towards the line and may be a reason why they average 5 line breaks per game (3rd).
- Despite only missing an average of 26.5 tackles per game (9th), the Raiders struggle to limit the scoring of their opponents. This can be put down to their performance on the road but either way, they need to reduce the 22 points a game (13th) they concede.
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.20 Raiders $4.75
Centrebet = Rabbitohs $1.20 Raiders $4.80
Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.22 Raiders $4.50
Betfair = Rabbitohs $1.24 Raiders $4.90
Verdict
Seeing as thought the Raiders struggled to beat the Tigers last week on the road, it is very hard to see them winning this contest. The Rabbitohs have been playing very well and their recent form suggests that they are going to have enough positives to outlast the Raiders. The game will be a lot closer than most think but this will be due to player fatigue rather than anything else. The Rabbitohs players are still probably feeling the effects of their game against the Titans a few weeks ago that was played in extremely hot and humid conditions; and on top of this you also have the fatigue of their Origin players. The Raiders will be out to turn around their performance against the Tigers and will lift to another level to face the competition leaders, but in the end, we should see the Rabbitohs get home. As for the margin, I am leaning towards the 1-12 option with is providing a little more value. The ANZ surface has copped a battering in recent weeks in Sydney and a big forward pack like both sides have may struggle to gain any momentum.
Suggested Bet
Raiders +12.5 @ $1.90
Go by the margin = Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $3 – As stated above, this game will be a lot closer than most think. It is no surprise that the 13+ margin is favorite ($1.90) but player fatigue and a slow surface should limit the attacking potential of both sides.
Be more specific = Rabbitohs 7-12 @ $5 – If you want to make a little more money on this game, than this is the option for you. You can see the Rabbitohs getting home by 10 or 12 points in this match and both options fall within this range. This is only if you’re game to take on a more specific margin.
Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm
Saturday night football will kick off proceedings this week at one of the traditional homes of rugby league, Leichhardt Oval. The Tigers fans and players really enjoy the opportunity to return to this ground and would love the opportunity to play more games here. Fact is though, the ground is too small to host a game between two Sydney sides and this may be the reason why we see the Storm feature here. The Tigers play so far this season has been disappointing to say the least but there has been a minor change in their form and application in recent weeks that is suggesting that they are slowly working to turn things around. It has not been easy for them and while being hampered by injury, they have struggled for consistency overcame this to shock the Raiders with a win last week. Things are not going to change too quickly and before Tigers fans can get too excited, they need to overcome a Storm side that will want to bounce back to winning form. It was always going to be a tough task for the Storm to grab a win last week in MNF over the Titans considering they were missing 4 players to SOO duty. The task was made even more difficult for them considering 3 of them were Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith; and players had to step in to fill the positions they have had a mortgage on for a number of years now. Still, they were very competitive and pushed the Titans beyond what they thought they would have to play in order to grab a win. It must be pleasing for coach Craig Bellamy to know that he has certain players to call upon but he would not want it to become a regular occurrence for the remainder of the season. They will still have their work cut out for them in this match as player fatigue will be a factor considering majority of the team are backing up from MNF and their stars played on Wednesday. Lets make the most of the opportunity of winning money on two games this Saturday and start it off on the right foot here.
Wests Tigers
The Tigers are full of confidence following their win over the Raiders and several of their players are beginning to recapture their form. That isn’t to say that they are back at that level just yet, but they will take a lot away from that win. The players returning to their lineup will only boost their chances and it is no surprise to see Robbie Farrah and Aaron Woods named to start. Woods and Farrah both spent time on the sideline on Wednesday night and that will only help them in recovering for this game. It was surprising to see Farrah leave the field but Josh Reynolds did have to fit into the picture at some point. It was perhaps more unforeseen to see Woods spend such a long time off the field. That was his debut and he did his chances no harm with a strong start to the match. Their return has forced Jack Buchanan back to the bench, while Masada Iosefa has vacated the team altogether through injury. Other changes in the team includes Chris Lawrence return to the centres and Joel Reddy moved to the second row, a position that he has rarely played in his NRL career (if he has at all). This has seen Eddy Pettybourne dropped back to the NSW Cup and it was a move that was a long time coming given his growing defensive errors (he wasn’t the only one!). The bench remains relatively the same, although Ben Murdoch-Masila has been moved to 18th man to cover for the return of Buchanan.
Melbourne Storm
The obvious changes for the Storm this week is the return of their SOO players. As expected, the Big 3 turned out another solid performance but you still thought that they were a little way off their best, considering what we have come to see off them over the years. Despite this, Smith still won MOM honors and Hoffman was anything but disgraced with his efforts for the Blues on the edge. He could’ve gotten himself involved a little more like he does with the Storm, but the pressure the Maroons applied made this difficult to occur. They are all named to play although Smith is in some doubt following a cut to his eye that he needed stitching for. There are several personal changes that accommodate their inclusion. Gareth Widdop was always going to retain his spot but after suffering a dislocated hip, Brett Finch will be the man who remains in the team to play 5/8. There are a few reports around that Widdop may be back for the finals (around 12 weeks) but given the extent of the injury, we can only hope for a speedy recovery for him. Ben Hampton was the player that debuted last week for the Storm and he made a great impression by scoring a double. He has been named as 18th man and could consider himself a little unlucky if he was to miss out. Tohu Harris has been forced back to the bench as Hoffman returns to the second row and Slade Griffin, who is forced out by Smith, will join him. Siosaia Vave and Junior Moors have also been named on the extended bench but if their Origin players are fit and ready to play, they will miss out on this match.
Recent History
Overall = Tigers 8 Storm 15
Last 5 games = Tigers 2 Storm 3
At Leichhardt Oval = Tigers 6 Storm 3
Stats that matter
- The Tigers struggle to compete with other sides in many areas but one of the toughest for them is in the forwards. There are several players that are underperforming and it is a reason why they only average 8.44m per carry of the ball (15th).
- It is no surprise that the Tigers also struggle to contain their opponents in defence. They average 29.6 missed tackles per game (15th) and this leads to them conceding 26.4 points per game (15th). Surprisingly, the Storm average a high amount of missed tackles (25.2 – 7th) but are able to scramble a lot better than the Tigers and allow their opponents an average of just 14.7 points (3rd).
- The Tigers are the worst disciplined team in the competition (despite what Ricky Stuart has alluded to) and concede an average of 8 penalties per game. This is something they need to improve on as it is giving their opponents too many attacking situations close to their line. For what it is worth, the Storm average just 6.1 per game (6th) and this is no surprise given Bellamy’s focus on discipline since he started.
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Tigers $2.65 Storm $1.50
Centrebet = Tigers $2.60 Storm $1.52
Sportsbet = Tigers $2.70 Storm $1.48
Betfair = Tigers $2.80 Storm $1.50
Verdict
Despite the recent run of form for the Tigers and the return to their spiritual home of Leichhardt Oval, it is still hard to go past the Storm. To put things into perspective, when the Tigers have won, it has been very ugly. Mistakes are still a major part of their game both in attack and defence and some of their lesser experienced players are beginning to figure out just how hard it is to compete in the NRL week in and week out. Of course, this game is going to be heavily impacted upon by the return of the SOO players and a few withdrawals could sway this game in favor of one team. Hopefully that doesn’t happen but be prepared for it if it does. I am still confident that the Storm can get the job done but it will not be as comfortable as they would like. Player fatigue is going to impact upon them in a major way and the MNF fixture might just hold them back. Considering this, go for a smaller margin and take a few selections around this game being a close contest.
Suggested Bet
Storm 1-12 @ $2.75
Under the total = Under 37.5 points @ $1.90 – With a bit of rain around Sydney, this option may come in a little more as KO approaches so if you are going to take it, get in early. Don’t forget, when the two sides met in Round 5, the total points scored were 38 (Storm 26 bt. Tigers 12). It is no surprise to see them set the total close to this again here.
The better Blair = Maurice Blair FTS @ $11 – No I am not talking about taking Adam Blair first try scorer, rather the centre for the Storm that bares the same name. In the past 5 games, Blair has been the FTS in 3 of those games for the Storm but just one of those has been the first of the match. Based on this, maybe also hedge your bet on him being the first team try scorer as well ($7).
Penrith Panthers v St George-Illawarra Dragons
The second game this Saturday may be overshadowed a little but it will still kick off out in Western Sydney at 7:30pm. It was only a few weeks ago that we saw the Dragons host the Panthers down in Wollongong and now the sides meet again with Penrith playing on their home turf. In that game, we saw the Dragons side comprehensively beaten and it was also the last time we will see Jamie Soward wear Dragons colours. He is moving to the Panthers next year but has been released by the Dragons to continue to play out the remainder of this season in the UK. That will do little to phase the Panthers, they have been performing over and beyond what anyone expected of them and their efforts are all the more impressive considering the injury toll they have had to contend with. Enthusiasm and application are the key focal points for this side and when they have been beaten, it has not been through a lack of effort. With so many top line players missing, their execution is affected at times to a level that has them outclassed by their opponents. That was not the case when these two sides last met and the Dragons had a lot of their pride beaten in that game. They are a side that has failed to find consistency and despite featuring plenty of talent, they too have struggled with execution. This has a lot to do with their halves and it may be a reason why we have seen Soward leave the club but news is also around that the Dragons are making a big play for the Raiders backup halfback, Sam Williams. If they do get their man, expect Nathan Fien to be in a bit of trouble and a shake up within their side will be coming. Several players are playing well, but they are not putting in a concerted team effort that is breeding success. Time is running out for them to find a winning formula and they do not want to get to the point where missing the Finals at the end of the season is a catalyst for change. There is a lot more on the line than most people think this weekend and if you can find the time in your Saturday night schedule, take a look at a game between two sides that are desperate to keep their Finals hopes alive.
Penrith Panthers
The Panthers would’ve enjoyed a week off last week to regroup and allow a few of their players a chance at recovering from minor injuries. This week, we see Matt Moylan named to play fullback despite all of the salary cap dramas surrounding his inclusion in the side. Wes Naiqama has been forced out of the team due to injury but it is a different story for Travis Robinson who has been dropped back to the NSW Cup. James Roberst will take his place on the wing and he will have a new centres partner in Brad Tighe, who has return to full fitness. Tim Grant has recovered from a broken hand in time to replace Mose Masoe who has returned to the bench. News did surface this week that Masoe was given an early release from his contract to join the Super League so he could very well be a late withdrawal. Matt Robinson is a new face in the side this week and his is promoted from the bench as a replacement for Sika Manu who has been injured. The bench remains the same for the Panthers and in a sign of confidence, Ivan Cleary has chosen not to name an 18th man.
St George-Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons have three players returning from SOO duty but only Dugan and Morris will take the field after Trent Merrin copped a one-week suspension for a grade one striking charge. It was again a moment that ignited an Origin “biff” and there is sure to be a lot more that comes of the incident. Needless to say, the fans loved to see it and would be content with the rules being a little more relaxed during the SOO period. All of their SOO players featured in a losing side but each of them had their moments that they can be proud of. They still did lose the game so they cannot get too confident with that effort but it is a positive sign for the Dragons that they are in form. They had a bye last week so there is no notable changes to the team that we saw go down narrowly to the Cowboys. In fact the only change in the team will occur in the front row as Michael Weyman and Jack Stockwell will swap their roles and Stockwell is now named to start. Weyman will still feature in this game but his impact now will be limited to the minutes he has off the bench. The pressure is continuing to build on the performance of Nathan Fien and his ability to lead a side to victory. At the peak of his career, he was a solid halfback that was able to create scoring opportunities. However now, the Dragons are a side that is lacking creativity and as I have said for a number of weeks, he must take the ball to the line more to put the defence in two minds.
Recent History
Overall = Panthers 9 Dragons 16
Last 5 games = Panthers 3 Dragons 2
At Centrebet Stadium = Panthers 6 Dragons 6
Stats that matter
- The Panthers have really improved their work with the ball since the season began and they are beginning to look like a very disciplined football team. This has been a focus of coach Ivan Cleary and they have work their way to the top of the completion rate stats and average 76.1% (2nd).
- The Dragons are struggling to create anything in attack and they are not troubling the defensive line enough. This is probably why they only average 3.3 line breaks per game (15th) and they cannot rely on Josh Dugan to do all the work for them. Their halves have to take responsibility and take the ball to the line with a little more conviction. For what it’s worth, the Panthers average 4.8 per game (4th).
- The Panthers need to tighten up their defence and after an improve performance by the Tigers last week, they now find themselves ranked in 16th for missed tackles (30.2 per game). They are able to scramble fairly well though and have been able to limit their opponents to an average of 19.2 points per match (8th).
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Panthers $1.67 Dragons $2.25
Centrebet = Panthers $1.62 Dragons $2.35
Sportsbet = Panthers $1.67 Dragons $2.25
Betfair = Panthers $1.68 Dragons $2.08
Verdict
It was only a few weeks ago that these two teams met with the Dragons being kept scoreless in a flawless performance by the Panthers. Much of the same is expected here but the Panthers will again be made to work for it. We are going to see two sides that are desperate for a victory and it will mean a little more than two competition points for the eventual winner. This game is bound to be a close encounter and one that may only be decided in the last few moments. As for a winner, the Panthers are better with the ball and will create more attacking opportunities than the Dragons. They have been lackluster with possession and are failing to build pressure on their opponents and place the defenders in two minds. Do not discount the Dragons though, they will just find it a lot more difficult to win than the Panthers.
Suggested Bet
Panthers -3.5 @ $1.90
Marginal victory = Panthers 1-12 @ $3 – This will be a close game and there is no reason why we cannot benefit from this. The Dragons will put themselves within striking distance but to suggest that they can stick with the Panthers in terms of scoring points is very hard to see. In saying that, their defensive structure should make it difficult for the Panthers as well.
Sing with Simmons = David Simmons FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – Simmons has been in great form recently and has scored the first try for the Panthers in 3 of the past 5 matches. He is always a threat on the edge and can finish off a backline movement or find his way to the end of a kick.
Newcastle Knights v Gold Coast Titans
Sunday football action will see a very unusual occurrence, as two games will run almost simultaneously kicking off at 2pm. One will be over in New Zealand and will be shown on a delayed telecast, while the other will take place in Newcastle and can be seen on Pay-TV. For that reason, I have chosen to focus on the Knights encounter with the Titans at Hunter Stadium, as fans will be able to watch that one live. It has been a tough few weeks for the Knights and they would’ve welcomed the bye in Round 15 as they are aiming to break a 4-game losing streak here. Much like the Raiders, they are a great side at home but continue to fail when they take to the road. This is becoming a real problem but they looked very close to turning things around in the early stages of their game against the Storm. They only went down by 2 points in the end but it was a far better effort than what we have come to expect from them when they travel. It can only boost their chances of finishing the season off on the right foot and perhaps break through for a possible finals berth. Standing in their way first is a Titans side who are performing above and beyond what many have expected of them. Whilst paying them a compliment, they seem to be able to beat the sides equal or below them on the table but then struggle to compete with the top sides in the league. This can become a real problem for them later on in the piece but they need to take confidence away from games where they are impressive. They found themselves in an arm wrestle last Monday when they hosted the Storm without their SOO players but they were backed in as heavy favorites given the players that the Storm were missing. It will be a little different in this game and the Knights will only have one player returning from SOO duty and will have had extra time to prepare for this game. The Titans are currently in 5th spot on 18 points and the Knights are hot on their heels in 9th on 14. They are two points out of the Top 8 and this game could be very important to the final make up of the competition table when teams are jockeying for position.
Newcastle Knights
The Knights only had Darius Boyd competing in SOO on Wednesday and after getting through that game, he is expected to take the field here at fullback. There were a few late changes that were made by the Knights in their last match against the Storm and majority of them are carried over here. Beau Scott has been named in the second row in place of Chris Houston, who returns to the bench at the expense of David Fa’alogo (knee injury). Aku Uate is also named to start on the wing in place of Kevin Naiqama. The inclusion that gained the most attention in that match was Craig Gower playing off the bench. He will again fill the utility role, however in this game he will be replacing Danny Buderus and not Travis Waddell (NSW Cup). It has been a long time coming for the Knights and they will benefit greatly by having two players with the experience of Gower and Buderus to call upon. It should ensure more direction in their play and less pressure on the halves. On the bench, Zane Tetevano has been included after a few strong performances in the lower grades and Neville Costigan is promoted from 18th man.
Gold Coast Titans
The Titans would’ve had minimal time to analyse the injuries and player fatigue suffered in their narrow win over the Storm. So much so that Nate Myles and Greg Bird have only been included on the extended bench. No doubt if they are fit, they will take their place in the side but Cartwright may be a little reluctant to burn out his players. It is a long season for them and both players have had their fair share of niggling injuries over the years. One games rest may just do the trick for them and ensure that they are “fresher”, come the business end of the season. Greg Bird should be fresh after he was substituted at one stage and had a forced break after being sin binned after the “biff”. Nate Myles wasn’t involved in the fight to any extent that saw him sent from the field but he too was given a rest when Mal Meniga chose to use his replacements. If they were to be named, we would probably see Dave Taylor and Luke Douglas relegated back to the bench, as well as Luke O’Dwyer left out of the team altogether. He was a late inclusion in the win over the Storm, at the expense of Sam Irwin. This does require hooker Matt Srama to play the entire match but he is more than capable of doing that.
Recent History
Overall = Knights 6 Titans 4
Last 5 games = Knights 3 Titans 2
At Hunter Stadium = Knights 3 Titans 2
Stats that matter
- While they are not in an ideal position on the table, the Knights are playing a better brand of football that is more disciplined. They average 9.5 errors (2nd), 74.5% in completion rate (4th) and miss just 24.5 tackles per game (4th).
- The Knights will want to be focused in defence because the Titans have shown on more than one occasion this season that they can score plenty of points. At this stage, they average 21.1 points (4th) and when they’re on song, they can score from anywhere on the field.
- The Titans have a very strong forward pack to call upon and it is releasing the pressure on their halves, as well as giving them extra room to move with the ball. This is due to the 9.14m they average per carry (3rd) and they will not shy away from a defensive
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Knights $1.55 Titans $2.50
Centrebet = Knights $1.53 Titans $2.55
Sportsbet = Knights $1.55 Titans $2.50
Betfair = Knights $1.55 Titans $2.32
Verdict
It is very strange to see the Knights favored the way they are in this match. Sure, they have played well at home this season but the Titans are not getting enough credit for how they have performed this season. Their chances would take a dive if either Bird or Myles was to withdraw from the match but they are still going to be competitive. That doesn’t mean that I am going to tip them, but I believe that we are in for a very close match that the Titans could very well win if a few decisions go their way. It will be interesting to see just how the Knights approach this game after a week off and whether or not they will be slow to start the match. The Titans will also probably be affected by player fatigue and you can probably take a few pointers away from how the Storm perform in their match on Saturday. So frame your bets around a close contest folks, as I have done for my selections below.
Suggested Bet
Titans +4.5 @ $1.90
Facing Titanic roadblock = Knights 1-12 @ $3.10 – As stated above, this game is going to be a close contest and I would be surprised if the Knights winning margin got out to 13+ ($2.90). The Titans are strong in defence and the Knights attack may find it tough to score points.
Bright light = Joespeh Leilua FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – Get ready for this, in the Knights last 2 games, he has been the FTS and LTS for his team. His FT’s have been the first in the match and he is increasing his chance of scoring every time he gets his hands on the ball. It will still be a tough task this weekend when he matches up against Jamal Idris and expect the big Titan to make things a little more difficult for him.
New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos
Over the ditch in the land of the long, white cloud, the Warriors will welcome the Broncos with open arms after their dominating display over them less than a month ago. It was a MNF game where the Broncos were without their SOO players, but the task does not get any easier for them here as they will now be fatigued following their Origin encounter on Wednesday night. To make matters more difficult for the Broncos, the Warriors are playing with confidence following a 4-game winning streak and should be rested following their bye in Round 15. They are one of the form teams of the competition and are pushing hard to break into the Top 8. It will probably not happen with a win here but it can do their chances no harm in coming weeks. They have limited the mistakes within their play and their defence has tightened up to the point where they are exhibiting the right attitude to hold other sides. It is an exciting prospect for their fans but the Broncos will hope they can put an end to their run and make up for their disappointing showing in their previous meeting. They will have their work cut out for them though and not all is well over at the Broncos. They currently sit in 11th spot on the table and are only ahead of the Warriors on points difference. Despite being recent winners over the Tigers in their last match, it was still a very disappointing effort against a far inferior opponent. Each loss at the moment for them brings their coach, Anthony Griffin, closer to facing the axe and this type of environment within the side is sure to be toxic towards achieving success. It is disappointing to say the least, but this proud club is going through a tough period that they have previously been able to avoid. If there is one way out of this situation, their star players need to put their hand up and take control of this side. Their performances have shown that they cannot rely on the halves to get the job done and those players need to use their experience to their advantage. This game can be viewed on a delayed telecast and there is probably a reason why they have chosen to broadcast this game over the “Knights v Titans” contest. We are going to see two desperate sides going against one another and while the Broncos are aiming for a shot at redemption, the Warriors will want to brush them aside and continue on their winning ways.
New Zealand Warriors
It is amazing what a few wins can do to a team and the Warriors week off would’ve been sweeter following their recent 4-game winning streak. The pressure has also been released off the shoulders of coach Matthew Elliot and we are perhaps seeing what he is capable of. This week, he has chosen to move Glen Fisiiahi to fullback and Kevin Locke (late withdrawal last match) has been relegated back to 18th man. This has opened up the opportunity for Ngani Laumape to again start on the wing. In the forwards, Ben Matulino has been named to start in the front row and this has forced Russell Packer back to the bench. Todd Lowrie, who returned from injury against the Roosters, also joins him and this has forced Sebastine Ikahihifo out of the team. Suaia Matagi is named as 19th man, but will likely miss selection if all players are named fit to play. A lot of the Warriors success can be related back to a team effort, but to be a little more specific, their halves have been taking more ownership of their performance and that of the teams. This is important as they try to move forward but of course, they will need a room created early by their forwards.
Brisbane Broncos
The Broncos are a team that is under the pump at the moment and this has seen Anthony Griffin abandon his selection policy following Origin and name all of his players that were on representative duty. Of course, they were all solid in Origin as they were playing for a winning team and it must be frustrating to see them perform well at this level by fail to carry that over to club football. For those players, the task of backing up into this game is made a little more difficult considering the travel they will have to make over to New Zealand. It will probably be a day after the team travels and their recovery may be hampered by this. There are only a few changes here to the side that last played back in Round 14 when they were unimpressive in a win over the Tigers. Lachlan Maranta has been named to start on the wing in place of Jordan Kahu, who has suffered a thumb injury and is expected to return in Round 17. Up front, Ben Hannant has been named in place of Josh McGuire at prop, and he now finds himself playing this game off the bench. This has forced a minor reshuffle on the interchange and Jarrod Wallace has been forced to 18th man, while Dunamis Lui has fallen further down the pecking order and is named as 19th man. Both players are likely to miss selection in this game but will travel with the team in case the fitness of their Origin players is not up to the standard required to participate in this game.
Recent History
Overall = Warriors 13 Broncos 19
Last 5 games = Warriors 2 Broncos 3
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 8 Broncos 7
Stats that matter
- The Broncos have a lot of problems around the field but missed tackles are an area that needs to fix as soon as possible. Currently, they average 29.6 per game (14th) and are well behind the Warriors, who average 27.1 (11th).
- It is polar opposites in terms of completion rates in this game. As they have been for most of the season, the Broncos are ranked in first spot with an average of 78%. However the Warriors are struggling with consistency and average just 69% (16th).
- So far this season, the Warriors have averaged 4.2 line breaks and are ranked in 7th. Nonetheless, since they have gone on a 4-game winning streak, they have average 6.5 line breaks in each of those games. They are definitely more dangerous when they are playing with confidence.
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Warriors $1.35 Broncos $3.25
Centrebet = Warriors $1.35 Broncos $3.30
Sportsbet = Warriors $1.35 Broncos $3.30
Betfair = Warriors $1.39 Broncos $3.15
Verdict
The Broncos have one of the hardest trips in the NRL to contend with and key to either sides success will be to how they bounce back following a weeks off. Despite travelling, the trip will be made a little easier given they had a week off last week. The Broncos have been disappointing this season to say the least and it will require a monumental change in form to see them victorious here. The Warriors are flying high and are at their best when they are playing with confidence. Hopefully the week off has served them well and we will see them take the field on their game. It should be a close contest though, as the Warriors tend to make things difficult for them with lapses throughout the game. I like the Warriors to get the win, but it will not be as comfortable as they would like.
Suggested Bet
Broncos +8.5 @ $1.80
Fighting Warriors = Warriors 1-12 @ $3 – The Warriors lapses in concentration during a game do bring their opponents back into the contest in each of the matches they play. The Broncos will be out to improve on their recent performances and they are capable of holding the Warriors attack.
Beast returns home = Manu Vatuvei FTS and/or LTS @ $6 – Very rarely do you see a try scoring option so short at the odds but the strike rate of Vatuvei this season is fantastic and his stats get even better when he returns home. Get on board the big fella’s shoulders and he is sure to get the ball in an attacking position in the opening moments. The Warriors know how good he is and his stocks only rise considering he is marking up against Lachlan Maranta.
North Queensland Cowboys v Cronulla Sharks
The final game of Super Sunday will kick off up in Townsville as the Cowboys look to turn a 1-game winning streak into 2 against the Sharks. That win was very important for their progress throughout the rest of the season and possibly pushing for spot at the business end of the season. While it does carry them some way towards progressing their credentials further, they still have a long way to go before they will be considered as a genuine chance for a shot at the Finals. They have a lot of talent on their roster and really should be in a better position then what they are. Another problem they have to contend with is their performance away from home but that will matter little here as they are playing host. The situation is a little better over at Cronulla and while they have had a lot going on off the field, majority of the time they have been able to put that behind them and perform to a suitable standard. The Cowboys could take a few things away from this because at times when they have been missing their stars, other players have stepped in to fill the void. Things were never going to be easy for them to perform but the early season problems have galvanized this team in a way that is creating a great team atmosphere. You can see in each of their performances, just how much it means to them to get out on the field and grind out a tough victory. You would expect nothing less of them here in this clash and another struggle for the Cowboys will be matching their enthusiasm in the opening stages. Don’t get too stressed for the working week ahead, sit back and relax by watching this game. It is promising to be a very close contest and one that could go down to the wire.
North Queensland Cowboys
The Cowboys would’ve enjoyed their week off after capturing a victory over the Dragons but it was a minor victory in the big scheme of their season. They have a lot more work to do before they can get their season back on track. It is no surprise to see coach Neil Henry name the same side that took the field in their last outing. This is on the proviso that their SOO stars will be able to back up following a very physical encounter on Wednesday night. It was reported in the lead up to Origin that Thurston spent a night in hospital with the flu, but he recovered in time to play a vital role for the Maroons. He, along with all of their SOO players are expected to take the field and will relish the extra time they have between games to recover. If they are unable to play, Henry has named 3 players on an extended bench that could be called in to cover for them. If they were to play, Ricky Thorby, Jason Taumalolo and Ethan Lowe would all probably miss out on selection.
Cronulla Sharks
Just like the Cowboys, the Sharks also enjoyed a week off in the winners circle. That performance was pleasing to say the least as they looked to be in trouble early on, but they were able to push the Eels out of the contest and eventually record a comprehensive victory. Coach Shane Flanagan has chosen to make a few minor changes to that team and the biggest will be the naming of Sam Tagataese at prop in place of Ben Ross (18th man). Bryce Gibbs has also been named to make his first start of the season but he is 19th man and may be given a week down in the NSW Cup. Of course, the final make up of the Sharks team will depend upon the players returning from SOO duty. Andrew Fifita, Luke Lewis and NSW captain Paul Gallen have all been named following the match on Wednesday and are expected to take the field. However we have seen several occasions this season where Lewis and Gallen have been named, only to pull out prior to kickoff. So make sure you’re paying attention to the final team that is named. News has surfaced that Gallen will be out of action with an ankle injury for the next 3-5 weeks and with his omission, expect a late inclusion.
Recent History
Overall = Cowboys 10 Sharks 20
Last 5 games = Cowboys 3 Sharks 2
At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 6 Sharks 10
Stats that matter
- This game should be tight but given their performances this season, it could be a very scrappy contest. Both teams have struggled to hold onto the ball and it has affected their play. The Cowboys have averaged 12.1 errors per game (15th) while the Sharks are the worst in the competition with an average of 12.5 (16th).
- Reflecting on their strength in the forwards, the Sharks are ranked 1st in the league for metres made per carry. They average 9.15m and are will be difficult for the Cowboys to handle.
- Defence is a major issue for the Cowboys as they try to limit the amount of points they concede (19.8 – 11th). They may like to focus on just how stringent they are in defence as they miss an average of 27.6 tackles each week (12th).
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.50 Sharks $2.60
Centrebet = Cowboys $1.50 Sharks $2.65
Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.50 Sharks $2.65
Betfair = Cowboys $1.61 Sharks $2.60
Verdict
This game is a very tricky one to get around. The form around the Cowboys is unpredictable to say the least and despite playing at home, they are no certainty to get a win. The Bulldogs proved only a few weeks ago that it is possible to head up to Townsville and grab a win. On the other hand, you have to consider how well the Sharks are travelling. Pondering what they have gone through, it has been a great effort by them so far. Having Gallen missing from their lineup will limit their chances but I still think that they are going to be competitive enough to push the Cowboys to the limit. Take a look at the selection below, I am going to only bet around that prospect and advise against investing too much money on this contest. If you need to tip a side, I would say go with the Cowboys, but only on trust. That is never a good situation to go by so maybe jus sit back and enjoy the game; and invest in other areas.
Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.85
Sydney Roosters v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
MNF this week features two teams that only met a few week ago and it will be interesting to see if the Sea Eagles are able to exact revenge on the Roosters. It seems like a long time ago, but it was only back in Round 9 where the Roosters whacked down the door at “fortress Brookvale”. It was also a game that added momentum to their credentials this season and fans of the game were beginning to suggest that they had what it takes. Fast-forward to this week and while not much has changed; they are still finding their feet a little in terms of a consistent performance. Both sides should make the Finals and now the job for them is to ready themselves for that chance. The Sea Eagles are a quality football team and despite losing a few games this season that they should’ve won, they have what it takes to beat any team in this competition. Much like the Roosters, they have a few areas they need to improve on as well. They are an aging team and have some players in their side that are at the back end of their careers. What we see from them each week isn’t anything different and it is what we have come to expect from them over the years. Even without a few of their stars, their club has created a culture in which a player can easily step in and is aware of his responsibilities. Neither side will want to let this game slip out from their grasp and perhaps the Sea Eagles will have a little more to play for considering how close they were last time. This is one of the games of the weekend and it is going to be a fantastic contest to watch. Thankfully, it will also go a long way to curing Mondayitis! So make sure you can watch or listen to this match and enjoy everything that MNF has to offer.
Sydney Roosters
The Roosters have named their SOO players a week after they had to play without them. It was always going to be a difficult task for them to deal with but they came out and surprised everyone, including the Bulldogs. This week, James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce return to the halves, while Daniel Mortimer (halfback) is relegated back to the bench and Mitchell Aubusson (5/8) moves back to the second row. This has forced Frank-Paul Nuuausala from lock and to the bench, while Nafe Seluini has been dropped back to the NSW Cup. Boyd Cordner will now start at lock, a position that he looks most comfortable with. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is welcomed back to the side from suspension and it was in that game against the Sea Eagles where we last saw him. It is lucky for the Roosters that he was due back this week because he will come into the side to replace Martin Kennedy, who suffered a knee injury last week and isn’t due back for a number of weeks. Michael Jennings is named in the centres and Aidan Guerra shifts back to the bench, while Isaac Liu is now named as 18th man.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
There is nothing new happening out in Manly this week as coach Geoff Toovey has chosen to name the same side. Whether or not that will be the same side that takes the field remains to be seen. There is some news floating around that Brett Stewart will take his place at fullback and this will force Peta Hiku out of the side. Hiku has played well in Stewart’s absence and Toovey will have no hesitation to bring him into the team again if there is another injury. They have Daley Cherry-Evans and Anthony Watmough returning from SOO duty but both players are expected to start here. They had limited minutes off the bench but played well when they were on the field. DCE will only be better for the experience and he didn’t look out of place at the next level. Watmough was rumored to be suffering from a bad cork to his leg and was lucky enough to be fit in time for Origin. He will probably still be feeling the effects from that and may choose to have a rest and ensure that he is there at the business end of the season.
Recent History
Overall = Roosters 40 Draw 2 Sea Eagles 79
Last 5 games = Roosters 1 Sea Eagles 4
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 6 Sea Eagles 12
Stats that matter
- The Roosters are dangerous every time they have the ball in their possession. They currently lead the competition in average line breaks with 5.4, but the Sea Eagles are not too far behind them with an average of 4.5 (5th).
- The Roosters are also the best defensive side in the competition in terms of missed tackles. They have improved in recent weeks to get their average back down to 20.8 for the season. The Sea Eagles are a fair way behind them though with 26.7 missed tackles per game (10th).
- Expect this game to be a low scoring affair. Both sides do a very good job of limiting their opponents scoring and it is sure to be on show here. The Roosters allow an average of 13.2 points per game (1st) and the Sea Eagles are hot on their heels with an average of 13.7 (2nd).
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Roosters $1.75 Sea Eagles $2.10
Centrebet = Roosters $1.75 Sea Eagles $2.12
Sportsbet = Roosters $1.75 Sea Eagles $2.12
Betfair = Roosters $1.81 Sea Eagles $2.22
Verdict
The Roosters were very brave last week against the Bulldogs but without taking away from that victory, they will have their work cut out for them here. For starters, the question marks that are lingering about their potential are still there and you cannot rely on their forwards to get the job done each week just yet. Not only that, as I alluded to earlier in the season, their kicking game isn’t at its best just yet and still needs improvement to increase pressure on their opponents. The Sea Eagles would’ve relished the week off and are a side that is only going to be better for that. It has given them a chance to rest a few of those niggling injuries and the return of Brett Stewart only boosts the Sea Eagles chances in this match. That’s right, I believe that this game is heading for an upset but it will be a very close game. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game wasn’t decided until the last few minutes, just as we have seen from MNF matches in the past.
Suggested Bet
Sea Eagles @ $2.22
Tri this bet = Either team Under 6.5 @ $2.75 – If you cannot make your mind up in regards to this contest, then consider this option. It is bound to be a close contest and the eventual winner could just scrape home in the end. This way, you don’t have to declare a winner and can just cheer home a close game.
If you must make a call = Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $3.25 – If you do believe that the Sea Eagles can get the job done, then invest on this market. There is a lot of value around this option and it would be very surprising to see them win by 13+ ($5).
Good luck!
Scooby
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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